当地时间1月3日，美军对主权国家委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，抓走总统马杜 罗，并将其强行带往美国。美国总统特朗普当天公开宣称，美国将"管理"委内瑞 拉，美国大型石油企业将进入委内瑞拉，投资数以十亿计美元，"维修"石油基础设 施并创造收益。面对美方公然践踏《联合国宪章》的行径，多个国家和国际组织表 示强烈谴责。 兴业期货研报表示，委内瑞拉石油探明储量达3032亿桶，居世界首位，约占全球 储量比例的五分之一；据天然气输出国论坛数据，委内瑞拉天然气探明储量5.54万 亿立方米，居全球第八位；据不完全统计，委内瑞拉预测金矿储量约792吨，居全 球第四位；此外，委内瑞拉还有丰富的铝土矿、铁矿石。 不过，尽管委内瑞拉拥有丰富的矿产资源，但受多重因素影响，委内瑞拉矿产资源 实际产量与出口量均较小。 兴业期货表示，美国突袭并抓捕委内瑞拉总统事件，构成一次重大的地缘政治冲 击，将极大增加全球地缘政治的不确定性，贵金属避险属性将得到强化。此外，本 次事件也凸显了美国对拉美地区战略资源的强势态度，关键矿产贸易流的安全性降 低，地区溢价也将随之上升。贵金属有望深度定价本次事件导致的避险情绪与资源 品溢价，节后高开的概率较高。 对于原 ...

转自：北京日报客户端 由中共北京市委宣传部、首都文明办主办的"2025北京榜样"发布仪式1月4日举行。91岁高龄的科学家滕 吉文、"红墙卫士"崔申迪、视障女孩周彤等10人当选年榜人物。 1.滕吉文，男，91岁，中国科学院院士、中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所研究员 主要事迹： 1975年，滕吉文带队开启青藏高原首次地球物理系统观测，由于高原缺氧，他的牙齿开始松动。为了确 保能持续深入高原开展研究，他拔除全部牙齿，从此戴上了满口假牙。他在中外学术期刊发表论文300 余篇，出版专著9部。91岁高龄仍坚守岗位，每年发表论文，指导学生，投身科普事业，近十年完成近 百场报告，激励后辈投身地球科学研究。 2.杜京林，女，37岁，北京站客运车间值班长 主要事迹： 杜京林是北京站的旅客服务标兵，为提升服务技能，她默画铁路接算站示意图，熟记列车停站时刻，自 学英语、手语，成为解决旅客乘车疑难问题的行家里手。她带领团队构建服务体系，近五年服务老幼病 残孕等重点旅客超32万人次。截至2024年，服务组收获表扬2436次、表扬信520封、锦旗32面。在她的 带领下，服务组始终保持"零投诉"，用实际行动擦亮北京站服务"金名片"。 3.晋 ...

最最重磅的来了，艺术源于生活，现实比电影魔幻。 摘要 / 明天还买航天的原因 就在平平无奇的元旦假期第三天，美军"闪击"委内瑞拉，三个小时直接抓捕马杜 罗，先来看几个段子！ 来源：梁狗蛋 小伙伴纷纷来打卡，哈哈哈，分数愣是提高到了7分！ 直接来个解读吧，哈哈哈，兴证的！ 此次美国行动的迅速成功超出了市场普遍预期 。尽管市场此前已预判美国可能在 拉美地区采取行动，但如此快速实现阶段性战术目标、"斩首"行动推进如此顺 利，确实超出了多数市场参与者的预期。因此，大概率来说，这会对短期的市场 产生明显的扰动。 对美国而言，此次行动的核心目的体现在三个方面：一是通过掌控委内瑞拉的石 油资源，为美国国内福利体系提供补充；二是通过控制委内瑞拉石油储备，维护 和稳定石油美元体系；三是在战略收缩过程中，通过战术层面的主动出击，达到 震慑反美国家、稳定盟友信心的效果。 从直接影响来看，委内瑞拉事件对中国经济影响相对有限。中委双边贸易规模约 50亿美元，其对华石油出口占中国石油进口总量不足5%，中国对委内瑞拉的债 权规模约一两百亿美元量级。总体而言，此次事件对中国经济的直接冲击不大。 对金融市场的影响呈现短期与长期逻辑分化的特征， ...

明日，A股市场将迎来2026年首个交易日。元旦假期期间，港股迎来新年开门红，在美上市的中国资产 也有强势表现，一定程度上提振了市场对A股新年开门红的预期。 展望后市，机构认为，开年后A股震荡向上的概率更高，投资者对春季行情应保持耐心，消费与成长板 块有望成为春季行情的两条主线。配置上，热度和持仓集中度相对较低但关注度开始提升、催化开始增 多且长期ROE有提升空间的板块值得关注，此外人民币汇率也具备继续走强可能，这或为港股带来一定 利好。 影响后市投资大事件 多型新火箭将首飞并挑战回收 2025年，我国在载人航天、深空探测、商业航天等领域完成多项突破，实现多个首次。在"十五五"开局 之年，中国航天的新蓝图正在展开。载人登月项目将展开多项试验，嫦娥七号将奔赴月球南极寻找水冰 存在的证据，多型新火箭将首飞并挑战回收。中国航天正朝着建设航天强国的目标开启新的征程。 机构后市投资观点 中信证券：开年后市场震荡向上概率更高 2026年开年后，市场震荡向上的概率更高。中期维度下，建议抱着"赚业绩的钱而不期待估值的钱"的思 维布局，聚焦热度和持仓集中度相对较低，但关注度开始提升、催化开始增多且长期ROE有提升空间的 板块，如 ...

Core Viewpoint - Confidence is more important than gold, and activating China's massive market through innovation breakthroughs is crucial for high-quality economic growth [2] Group 1: Innovation and Technology Breakthroughs - In 2025, significant advancements in AI models like DeepSeek and breakthroughs in the innovative drug sector showcased China's competitiveness in the AI and biopharmaceutical fields [3] - The rapid iteration of large model technologies and breakthroughs in innovative drugs have created new industries and jobs, sending a strong signal of China's capability in the new technological revolution [3] - The Chinese space industry achieved multiple breakthroughs in 2025, including a record 92 launches, which has further boosted market confidence [3][4] Group 2: Future Expectations and Market Dynamics - The year 2026 is expected to see continued breakthroughs in various fields, including practical applications of AI and advancements in commercial space endeavors [4] - The integration of AI and robotics is anticipated to create new market opportunities in sectors such as elderly care and domestic services, leading to a clear path from technology investment to new consumption [4] - Cross-sector innovations are expected to generate new economic growth points, enhancing consumer confidence and creating significant opportunities for consumption upgrades [5] Group 3: Economic Interaction and Growth - The interaction between innovation and consumption is projected to be a key driver of economic growth in 2026, with technological advancements providing new supply and consumption upgrades creating new demand [5] - The expectation is to witness breakthroughs across various fields, including AI, chips, biotechnology, and renewable energy, contributing to a broader societal confidence boost [5]

Group 1 - China ranks prominently in scientific research achievements, innovation, and urban clusters according to multiple international research platforms, with the UN Deputy Secretary-General describing it as entering an "innovation explosion period" [1] - The Chang'e 7 mission is expected to launch around 2026, focusing on lunar south pole exploration and carrying payloads from several countries [1] - The Tianwen-2 mission, aimed at asteroid exploration and sample return, successfully launched in May 2025, marking China's first mission to explore and return samples from an asteroid [1] Group 2 - The new generation of reusable crewed spacecraft, "Dream Boat," is set for its first flight in 2026, featuring a modular design and intended for near-Earth space station operations and crewed lunar missions [3] - The 2026 crewed spaceflight schedule includes the launch of Shenzhou-23 and Shenzhou-24 crewed spacecraft, as well as the Tianzhou-10 cargo spacecraft, with Shenzhou-23 featuring a crew member for a long-term stay [3] Group 3 - China's deep-sea exploration capabilities have expanded significantly, with the "Fendouzhe" manned submersible completing deep-sea scientific research in the Arctic, marking a shift from "full ocean depth" to "full ocean area" exploration [5][7] - By the end of 2025, China's deep-sea manned submersibles are expected to exceed 2,000 dives, enhancing international scientific cooperation and technological development in deep-sea research [5][7] Group 4 - The "2025 Top Ten Scientific Breakthroughs" list by the Institute of Physics includes a breakthrough in the preparation of the first two-dimensional metal, marking a significant achievement in the field of two-dimensional materials [8] - In the biopharmaceutical sector, 76 innovative drugs were approved in 2025, with total licensing transactions exceeding $130 billion, indicating a historic peak in China's pharmaceutical innovation [8]

Group 1: Project Overview - The "Mars Science City" project is set to begin construction in the second half of 2026, with a total planned area of 62 acres, including 90,000 square meters of above-ground space and 100,000 square meters underground, aiming for trial operations in 2028 and official opening in 2029 [2] - The project will leverage resources from Tsinghua University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, creating a high-quality, differentiated cultural tourism ecosystem in Beijing's sub-center [2] Group 2: Educational and Entertainment Aspects - "Mars Science City" will integrate cutting-edge technologies such as aerospace, artificial intelligence, and robotics into its narrative, allowing visitors to engage in a storyline focused on survival, exploration, and construction on Mars [2] - The project aims to become a second classroom for youth and a family-friendly science leisure destination, enhancing public scientific literacy through immersive experiences and interactive activities [2] Group 3: Urban Development and Infrastructure - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the sub-center will continue to strengthen its core strategic tasks, including the relocation of eight state-owned enterprises and the completion of educational institutions like Tsinghua University's financial development base [3] - The sub-center will establish a modern, high-quality comprehensive transportation network, with the completion of the M101 line and the northern extension of the Yizhuang line, enhancing accessibility [3] Group 4: Healthcare Development - The number of tertiary medical institutions in the Beijing urban sub-center has reached eight, with ongoing improvements in the grassroots medical network [6] - There are ongoing efforts to address challenges in cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment, including the establishment of a quality control network for community health services [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for domestic demand, which is expected to drive the development of new productive forces, as highlighted by the national financial work conference held on December 27-28, 2025 [5][13] - The aerospace sector continues to show high prosperity, with the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation achieving a record 73 space launch missions in 2025 [5][14] - The report recommends focusing on companies that align with the "S-curve" evolution, emphasizing supply chain reform, maintenance volume, and trends towards automation and intelligence [5][15] Industry Overview - The defense and aerospace industry is experiencing a significant increase in investment, with a focus on new productive forces and comprehensive human development [5][13] - The report notes the successful IPO acceptance of Blue Arrow Aerospace, which aims to raise 7.5 billion CNY, indicating strong market interest in commercial aerospace ventures [5][14] - The report identifies three key cycles within the industry: the evolution of the "S-curve," expansion of the "S-curve," and a new cycle focusing on emerging industries such as commercial aerospace, AI, and quantum computing [5][15] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Aero Engine Corporation of China** (航发动力): Benefiting from high-end aviation equipment production and potential for domestic engine replacement in the civil aviation market [5][21] - **AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group** (中航西飞): A major manufacturer of military and civil aircraft, expected to benefit from modernization and military trade opportunities [5][22] - **China Power** (中国动力): Positioned to benefit from the recovery of the shipbuilding industry and the transition to dual-fuel engines [5][26] - **Aero Engine Control** (航发控制): Engaged in the production of control systems for military and civil aviation engines, with a strong competitive position [5][21] - **Ziguang Guowei** (紫光国微): Focused on the semiconductor industry with a strong emphasis on domestic market growth and AI integration [5][18] Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies, including expected earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) for 2025 and 2026 [6] - For example, **航发动力** is projected to have an EPS of 0.34 CNY in 2026 with a PE ratio of 117.74 [6] - **中航重机** is expected to achieve a net profit of 11.21 billion CNY in 2025, with a dynamic PE ratio of approximately 28X [5][24] Market Performance - The report notes that the China Securities Military Industry Index has shown a weekly increase of 2.90%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [5][34] - Year-to-date, the military industry index has increased by 42.34%, indicating strong market performance relative to other sectors [5][34]

Group 1 - The capital market in 2025 experienced a stark contrast between the decline of newly listed tech companies and the rise of established giants, indicating a significant market polarization [1][2] - Over two-thirds of tech companies that went public in 2025 saw their stock prices fall below their IPO prices, with a median decline of 9%, underperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose nearly 18% during the same period [3][6] - Notable exceptions like Circle, a stablecoin issuer, managed to maintain gains post-IPO, highlighting the challenges faced by many other tech startups [3][6] Group 2 - The performance of unicorns like Figma and Klarna was disappointing, with significant market value losses attributed to increased competition and a rejection of the "growth at all costs" model by investors [3][15] - The average market capitalization of smaller tech companies is around $8.3 billion, facing higher valuation hurdles and liquidity issues, making it difficult to attract sustained interest from index funds and retail investors [6][30] - The IPO landscape is characterized by a "trust gap," where founders and venture capitalists are reluctant to lower valuations, while public investors are increasingly sensitive to profitability prospects [6][30] Group 3 - The 2025 IPO recovery is still far from reaching pre-2022 levels, with software and AI IPOs significantly below the peak years of 2019-2021 [7][9] - The "40 Rule" for assessing software company health has become ineffective, as companies like Navan, despite showing revenue growth, are penalized for poor profitability metrics [11][30] - The market is witnessing a severe backlog of IPO candidates, with many companies postponing their plans due to unfavorable market conditions [33] Group 4 - Major players like SpaceX and OpenAI are preparing for record-breaking IPOs, with SpaceX targeting over $30 billion in funding and a valuation of $1.5 trillion, potentially setting a new record for the largest IPO [22][24] - OpenAI is also planning a significant IPO, aiming for a valuation of $1 trillion and seeking to raise at least $60 billion, reflecting the competitive landscape in AI technology [25][27] - The emergence of these tech giants contrasts sharply with the struggles of many smaller firms, indicating a potential shift in investor focus towards established leaders in the tech sector [28][30] Group 5 - The IPO market is transitioning from a phase of "valuation winter" to cautious optimism, driven by macroeconomic improvements and the commercialization of AI technology [30][32] - The entry barriers for new IPO candidates have significantly increased, with expectations for companies to demonstrate substantial recurring revenue and strong unit economics [33] - The overall sentiment for IPOs in 2026 will heavily depend on the stability of monetary policy and geopolitical conditions, which will influence market dynamics [33]

Group 1 - China ranks among the top in research output, quality, and innovative urban clusters, with the UN Deputy Secretary-General describing the country as entering an "innovation explosion period" [2] - A series of new technology projects and plans are expected to be unveiled in 2026, marking the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2 - The Chang'e 7 mission is scheduled for launch around 2026 to explore the lunar south pole environment and water ice resources, carrying payloads from multiple countries [3] - The Tianwen-2 mission, which aims to conduct the first asteroid exploration and sample return, successfully launched in May 2025 [3] Group 3 - The new generation of reusable crewed spacecraft, "Dream Boat," is set for its first flight in 2026, featuring a modular design for near-Earth space station operations and crewed lunar exploration [4] - The 2026 crewed spaceflight schedule includes the launch of Shenzhou-23 and Shenzhou-24 crewed spacecraft, as well as the Tianzhou-10 cargo spacecraft [4] Group 4 - The "Fendouzhe" manned submersible has expanded China's deep-sea exploration capabilities, completing significant missions including deep dives in the Arctic [5] - By the end of 2025, China's manned submersibles are expected to exceed 1,700 dives, with projections to surpass 2,000 dives in 2026 [5] Group 5 - The "2025 Top Ten Scientific Breakthroughs" list includes a significant achievement from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in producing the first example of two-dimensional metals, marking a notable advancement in material science [8] - In the biopharmaceutical sector, 76 innovative drugs were approved in 2025, with total licensing transactions exceeding $130 billion, setting historical records [8] - Technological innovations are increasingly integrated into various sectors, enhancing quality of life through advancements in robotics, medical applications, and computational technologies [8]