5月的北海铁山港，海风轻拂海岸线。远处，装载着铝土矿的货轮缓缓靠岸；近处，智慧电厂将煤 炭转化为清洁热能，为铝产业输送动能。 这里是广西投资集团北海临港循环经济产业园——首个由广西本土企业自主投资、建设、运营的临 港型铝产业链集群，正以创新驱动书写传统产业转型升级与循环经济发展的新答卷。 从"能源短缺"到"绿色枢纽" 海洋是高质量发展的战略要地，向海方可图强，开放才有发展。 临港产业壮大，则向海经济繁荣。广投集团锚定深化供给侧结构性改革目标，以广投北海电厂为能 源协同基础核心，以海外铝土矿资源为供应链抓手，以绿色生态铝项目为产业支点，串联港口物流优 势，以产融投协同发展综合施策，全力打造"前港后厂""港产城一体化"的临港循环经济产业园。 5月25日，临港循环经济产业园内，广投临港工业公司20万吨散货码头试运行。后续装载几内亚铝 土矿的货轮抵岸后，铝土矿将通过传送栈道，直抵近在300米外的氧化铝工厂，实现"矿—港—厂"全程 无缝衔接。氧化铝工厂生产所需热能，均来自园内先期建设的广投北海电厂。 "过去北海缺电少煤，现在我们建成了北海清洁能源枢纽。"广投北海电厂主任工程师罗世斌见证了 电厂蝶变。上世纪90年代，在沿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in alumina futures prices are primarily driven by changes in supply dynamics and market sentiment, particularly influenced by Guinea's mining policies and domestic production adjustments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Alumina futures experienced a significant drop, with the main contract closing at 2,943 yuan/ton, down 2.9% [1]. - The market saw a brief recovery in the night session, closing at 2,953 yuan/ton after touching a low of 2,928 yuan/ton [1]. - The recent price movements are attributed to a decrease in trading activity and a shift back to fundamental factors affecting supply and demand [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The alumina industry faced production cuts due to losses, leading to tighter spot supply, while Guinea's policy changes initially drove prices up to around 3,300 yuan/ton [1][2]. - However, as the excitement around Guinea's mining policy waned, short positions increased, causing prices to retreat to the 2,900-3,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Current supply conditions are sufficient to meet domestic production needs, with no significant price increases observed in ore prices [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if Guinea's bauxite production does not further decline, the domestic supply will experience a balance between surplus and seasonal tightness later in the year [2]. - The alumina production capacity is expected to rise to approximately 92 million tons, which may lead to price stabilization around high-cost production levels [2]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of continued supply increases and macroeconomic factors influencing trading behavior [3].

Group 1 - Fulin Precision Industry's subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua signed a supplementary agreement with CATL, involving a prepayment of 500 million yuan to support the construction of production bases in Jiangxi and Sichuan [1] - Jiangxi Shenghua commits to complete the Jiangxi base by April 30, 2025, and achieve an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials by June 30, 2025 [1] - The agreement ensures that 100% of Jiangxi Shenghua's capacity from 2025 to 2029 will prioritize materials meeting CATL's requirements, with CATL committing to purchase no less than 80% of the promised capacity annually [1] Group 2 - ST Lingda announced the resignation of Chairman and CEO Wang Mingsheng due to personal reasons, with Jin Yongfeng elected as the new Chairman and Yang Xusheng appointed as the new CEO [2] - The impact of this management change on the company's operations remains to be seen, with market focus on the new management's ability to improve the company's performance [2] Group 3 - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest approximately 1.868 billion yuan to establish a joint venture in Indonesia for the production of 200,000 tons of caustic soda and 165,000 tons of epoxy chloropropane [3] - This investment reflects the company's internationalization strategy and intention to extend its industrial chain, potentially enhancing its global competitiveness [3]

美国白宫宣布从4日起将进口自除英国外所有贸易伙伴的钢铝产品关税从25%上调至50%。对此，加拿 大总理卡尼称美国此举"不合理且非法"，不利于美加两国的工业。卡尼表示，加拿大正在与美国进行谈 判，如果谈判失败，加拿大将准备采取报复措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum plans to establish a joint venture, PT Bintan Fine Chem Indonesia, in partnership with others to invest in a project for producing 200,000 tons of caustic soda and 165,000 tons of epichlorohydrin annually, with a total investment of approximately 1.868 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Project Details - The project aims to serve the alumina project within the same industrial park, enhancing the company's international capacity cooperation [1] - The registered capital of PT BFCI is 20 million USD, with Nanshan Aluminum holding an indirect stake of 48.45% [1] Group 2: Regulatory Considerations - The project is subject to environmental assessments and construction permit approvals from Indonesian authorities, which may involve risks of delays, changes, suspension, or termination [1]

据央视新闻，美国白宫3日发布声明称，美国总统特朗普签署命令，将进口钢铁和铝的关税从25%提高 至50%，从4日起开始生效。 同时，有记者就美方对华采取新限制措施进行提问，何咏前表示，5月12号《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合 声明》发布后，中方本着负责任的态度，认真对待、严格落实中方义务，积极维护日内瓦经贸会谈共 识。 "反观美方，在日内瓦会谈后，对华采取一系列限制措施，严重破坏既有共识，严重损害中方正当权 益。中方对此强烈不满、坚决反对，要求美方立即停止。如果美方一意孤行，继续损害中方利益，中方 将坚决采取有力措施维护自身正当权益。"何咏前表示。 6月5日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。商务部发言人何咏前表示，中方已多次强调，232关税是典型的 单边主义和保护主义行径，早已被世贸组织争端解决机制裁定违反世贸规则。此次美方再一次提高钢铝 及其衍生制品关税，不仅损人害己，无助于维护产业安全，还将严重扰乱全球产业链供应链稳定。 何咏前称，美方做法已遭到多个国家反对。中方敦促美方尊重经济规律，摒弃零和思维，停止泛化和滥 用"国家安全"概念，与各方一道维护以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，通过平等对话解决各自关切，共同 维护全球产业链 ...

氧化铝&电解铝6月报 几内亚扰动告一段落，氧化铝震荡偏弱；库存支撑较强，电解铝震荡偏强 2025年5月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 盘面表现回顾 铝产业链供应情况 04 铝产业下游与终端表现情况 05 铝产业库存 01 观点与策略 观点策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，几内亚取消40多家企业采矿许可，一度让氧化铝价格涨至3200以上，但 震荡偏弱 | | | 实际影响有限；几内亚发运量维持强势，海外矿石供应持续走强，缓解国内铝土 | | | 矿供应偏紧局面。需求端，丰水期将至，西南地区有部分电解铝产能复产，但目 | | 氧化铝 | 前电解铝产能利用率已超96%，增长空间不大，氧化铝需求增量有限。国内氧化 | | | 铝行业库存处于近四年同期最低位，低价格底部有一定支撑。综合来看，铝土矿 | | | 整体供应逐步走向宽松，将持续对价格施压；海内外铝土矿价格延续偏弱态势， | | | 氧化铝成本亦难以上涨。预计氧化铝6月仍将维持震荡偏弱态势，反弹空间有限， | | | 运行区间参考【2800-3400】，以逢高沽空思路为主。 | | 电解铝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to increase steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% is a significant escalation in the "America First" trade policy, aimed at forcing manufacturing to return to the U.S. and impacting global supply chains [2][5]. Trade Reactions - The decision has sparked strong opposition from various countries, including the EU, Canada, and Australia, which expressed concerns over increased uncertainty and costs for consumers and businesses [3]. - Canada and Australia have labeled the move as detrimental to their economies, with Canadian labor leaders calling it a direct attack on workers [3]. Impact on U.S. Market - The increase in tariffs is expected to raise U.S. steel and aluminum import costs significantly, with estimates indicating an additional $220 billion in costs from the previous 25% tariffs and $290 billion for derivative products [4]. - Industries such as automotive, machinery, construction, and appliances will face sharp increases in raw material costs due to the new tariffs [4]. Effects on China’s Steel and Aluminum Industry - As the largest producer of steel and aluminum, China faces severe challenges from the proposed tariffs, which could eliminate remaining trade channels to the U.S. and exacerbate existing issues of domestic demand weakness and overcapacity [5][6]. - The Chinese steel industry is already experiencing low prices and high inventory levels, with many small and independent mills operating at a loss [6]. Challenges for Aluminum Sector - The Chinese aluminum industry, while benefiting from demand in new energy sectors, is also under pressure from high raw material costs and potential losses in U.S. exports due to the tariffs [7]. - The overall economic slowdown and trade tensions may further suppress demand for aluminum products [7]. Strategic Responses - The industry needs to stabilize market expectations and confidence through proactive fiscal policies, particularly in new infrastructure and energy sectors, to absorb excess capacity and support long-term transformation [8]. - China should collaborate with affected trade partners to challenge the U.S. tariffs within the WTO framework, aiming to uphold multilateral trade rules [8]. Long-term Development Strategies - The industry must shift from a focus on volume to quality, targeting high-end materials and advanced manufacturing processes to enhance competitiveness [9]. - Global expansion and local production in target markets are essential strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs and respond quickly to market demands [9]. Conclusion - The situation remains fluid, and the ultimate outcome of the tariff increase is uncertain, with potential for both significant disruption and opportunities for industry transformation [10].

智通财经APP获悉，行业高管们警告，美国总统特朗普新出台的对铝进口征收 50%关税的举措，可能会 让消费者难以接受，从而导致需求下降。 Novelis公司全球金属业务高级副总裁Derek Prichett在芝加哥举行的Harbor Aluminum第 17 次峰会上表 示："我们担心这项征税政策可能会导致需求下降，尤其是在目前的征收额度下。总体而言，这确实是 一种不利因素。" 他还指出，其公司在加拿大和美国的业务受到关税影响十分严重。这家总部位于佐治亚州亚特兰大的公 司是各类行业中广泛使用的平整轧制铝制品的最大制造商，这些产品包括汽车和航空航天领域的产品。 特朗普曾表示，这些关税是为了保护国内制造商的利润空间，并刺激美国本土生产领域的投资。然而， 目前美国在生产多种产品(从饮料罐到汽车再到飞机)时仍严重依赖进口。 许多企业高管表示，制造商可能无法承担如此高额的关税。特朗普今年早些时候将这一关税税率从 25% 提高到了现在的水平。他们认为，这些关税会使美国消费者购买商品的成本增加。 Aluminium Bahrain BSC首席营销官Hisham Alkooheji称，自 6 月 4 日起生效的 50%的关税" ...