Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - The actual sown area of U.S. cotton in the new year is higher than expected, and the supply may not show positive signs. The domestic cotton market has a tight supply-demand situation in the later stage of this year, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off-season [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,187 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The new-year actual sown area of U.S. cotton was 10.12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the supply-side positive factors may not appear, and attention should be paid to the weather and new cotton growth in major producing countries. Domestically, the supply-demand situation is tight in the later stage, but the new-year cotton production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The macro uncertainty still exists, and the continuous upward space of cotton prices is restricted [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply increase expectation in the Brazilian 25/26 sugar season has not changed, and the new-season production in India and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the ICE raw sugar price. However, the downside space of raw sugar is limited [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the first half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil decreased by 21.49% year-on-year, and the sugar production decreased by 22.12% year-on-year [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price followed the external market and weakened. The supply pressure has been largely reflected, and the downside space of raw sugar is limited. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, and attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar and the substitute import policy [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy, focusing on the Brazilian sugar production estimate and the domestic import rhythm [6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,026 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian needles was 5,085 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price continued to be weak. The change in the delivery rules has little impact, and the supply is loose in the short term, while the demand is weak. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a neutral strategy. The 09 contract is mainly priced by Russian needles and Uzbek needles, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [9]

Group 1 - The Jinan municipal government is actively promoting agricultural and rural consumption through various initiatives, including the "Action to Promote Agricultural and Rural Consumption" [1] - Jinan has planned and implemented 309 key agricultural projects with an annual investment of 13.86 billion yuan, focusing on stabilizing the production of staple food and enhancing supply capacity [1] - In the first quarter, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Jinan reached 9.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] Group 2 - Jinan is enhancing its agricultural brand system, creating a "1+15+N" agricultural brand matrix, and has authorized 140 enterprises and 420 products under the "Spring Water Family" public brand [2] - The city has organized 29 sales matching activities, involving over 530 agricultural operators, to facilitate local consumers' access to quality agricultural products [2] - Jinan is expanding its rural consumption scenarios by developing new rural tourism routes and organizing various cultural and agricultural events [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Jinan municipal government is actively promoting agricultural and rural consumption through a series of initiatives aimed at enhancing the supply of quality agricultural products and improving market connectivity [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Product Supply and Quality Enhancement - Jinan will focus on six key areas: grain, fruits and vegetables, livestock and poultry, seed industry, urban leisure agriculture, and agricultural services, aiming to develop 10 signature agricultural industrial chains and 43 key product lines [1] - The city plans to cultivate and enhance agricultural product quality, branding, and standardized production, with a target of certifying over 50 green and organic products within the year [1] Group 2: Market Connectivity and Promotion Activities - Jinan will expand market outreach by hosting over 50 promotional events for the "泉水人家" brand and organizing agricultural enterprises to participate in 15 major trade exhibitions [2] - The city aims to strengthen the construction of agricultural product circulation facilities, including the establishment and upgrading of three professional wholesale markets [2] Group 3: Rural Consumption Scene Development - Jinan will leverage local resources to create diverse rural consumption scenarios, promoting leisure agriculture, boutique homestays, and e-commerce live streaming to enhance rural tourism consumption potential [2] - The city plans to organize various festive activities and competitions to stimulate consumption during key agricultural seasons, including the celebration of the Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival [2]

Core Insights - The failure rate of agricultural investments exceeds 90%, highlighting the challenges in the sector [1] - Four critical pain points hinder the success of agricultural projects: production dispersion, lack of standardization, disconnection between production and sales, and insufficient brand power [3][4][7][9] Group 1: Agricultural Project Challenges - Production dispersion leads to high costs and lack of competitive pricing due to the fragmented nature of Chinese agriculture [3] - The absence of standardization across production and sales processes remains a significant issue, even with advancements in smart and digital agriculture [4] - The disconnection between production and sales results in unsold products and poor consumer access to quality goods [7] - Weak brand recognition and product homogeneity limit pricing power, forcing producers to accept market prices [9] Group 2: Successful Agricultural Project Characteristics - Successful agricultural projects exhibit a "iron triangle model" consisting of significant pricing power, replicability, and innovative profit structures [11][16][20] - Brand premium is crucial for success, as effective branding can significantly increase product value [12][13] - Technological advancements and unique techniques can enhance project success and profitability [14] - Projects should focus on niche markets and personalized offerings to maximize pricing power [15] Group 3: Keys to Agricultural Project Success - Building a founder's brand is essential, as consumers trust visible leaders [22] - Precise market positioning is critical; projects should avoid broad targeting and focus on specific consumer segments [24] - Diversifying revenue streams is necessary to mitigate risks associated with single-product dependency [25] - Unique sales channels, such as high-end community group buying and live streaming, can enhance product visibility and sales [28] - Deep differentiation in products is vital for attracting consumer attention and establishing a competitive edge [30] Conclusion - The complexity of agricultural success lies in restructuring production relationships and industry chain logic, emphasizing the need for a complete value chain from production to sales [33]

2025 年 07 月 02 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收平，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面或震荡 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 1 日 CBOT 大豆日评：大豆稳中微涨，因豆油上涨抵消作物良好的影响。北京德润林 2025 年 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4127 | -20（-0.48%） 4126 -3（-0.07%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2961 | +3（+0.10%） 2953 -8（-0.27%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1027.5 | +0.0（+0.00%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 287.5 | n a -2.0（-0.69%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43 ...

蛋白粕丨月报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 期货从业资格证号： F03113318 周度数据，新作大豆优良率较高，截至 6 月 29 日，大豆出苗率 94%，上期值 90%，去年同期 94%，五年均值 95%。开花率 17%，上期 值 8%，去年同期 18%，五年均值 16%。结荚率 3%，去年同期 3%，五年 均值 2%。优良率 66%，上期值 66%，去年同期 67%。 期货投资咨询证书： 阿根廷大豆收获完毕，农户们"抢售"赶在 7 月 1 日关税优惠到 期前甩卖大豆类产品。6 月 26 日国内多家大型贸易商采购阿根廷共 3 万吨豆粕，带动内外盘下跌。这是自 2019 年中阿协议签署后首次。 Z0018777 2025 年 7 月 1 日 美豆种植面积未作调整，关注产区天气与后续发船 近期国内外蛋白粕期货行情回顾及分析： （一）豆粕：6 月最后一周，内外盘粕类油脂，走势显著分化 最新要点：USDA 种植面积报告与季末库存报告；油粕驱动分化 6 月底 USDA 发布两份季度报告，预计 2025 年大豆播种面积 8340 万英亩，符合预期，相比 6 月 WASDE 报调整很 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the severe impact of ongoing US-China trade tensions on American ginseng growers, particularly in Wisconsin, which produces 98% of the US ginseng supply [1] - Due to trade disputes, shipments to China have stalled since April, leading to a significant accumulation of unsold ginseng in warehouses and a decline in prices [1][2] - The US exported $32.5 million worth of ginseng to mainland China and Hong Kong last year, accounting for 83% of the global export total for this product [1] Group 2 - Many ginseng growers are exiting the industry due to low prices and high investment costs, with some reducing their planting areas or ceasing operations altogether [2] - The wholesale export volume of ginseng decreased by 10% to 15% last year, attributed to the uncertainty created by the "Trump effect" on trade policies [2] - The domestic ginseng market in the US has shrunk by 25% over the past two years, with growers now focusing on the Asian American community while facing challenges from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market is expected to be loose as major producers' output is likely to increase, and global corn prices will likely maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [2][35] - In the domestic market, before the new crop is launched, the supply - demand situation of corn is generally tight, but considering imports, substitutes, and policy - sourced grains, the overall energy raw material supply is sufficient. After the new corn is launched in the fourth quarter, the corn market may face pressure [2][35] - In the third quarter, the general idea is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the new crop's launch. If the output is good, a bearish view is advisable [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first half of 2025, domestic corn prices rose from a low level. Futures prices rose less than spot prices due to the previous premium. The spot price at Jinzhou Port increased from around 2,050 yuan in early January to around 2,380 yuan. Dalian corn futures led the increase, but the upward trend slowed down in the second quarter with several adjustments [4] 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 US Corn Supply Expected to Increase Significantly - The USDA's May report estimated that the 2025/26 corn planting area in the US will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre and a total output of 15.8 billion bushels. Supply is expected to increase significantly compared to the previous year, and consumption will increase steadily, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks [6] 2.2 South American G2 Output Resumes Growth and Exports Are Expected to Increase - In 2024/25, Brazil's corn output is estimated to be 130 million tons, and Argentina's is 50 million tons. For 2025/26, Brazil's output is expected to be 131 million tons, and Argentina's is 53 million tons. Brazil and Argentina's exports are likely to increase in the coming months with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn [9] 2.3 Ukraine's Supply Capacity Expected to Recover - Ukraine's 2025/26 corn output is estimated to be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons from the previous year. Exports will recover to 24 million tons, and ending stocks will be 597,000 tons [11] 2.4 Regions Outside China to See Slightly Looser Supply - Demand - In 2025/26, the corn output of regions outside China will be 970 million tons, an increase of about 42 million tons from 2024/25. Exports are expected to be 195 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons from the previous year, and ending stocks will reach 9.407 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons [15] 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 2025/26 Output to Increase Slightly - The 2025/26 domestic corn output is expected to be 296 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons from the previous year. The total planting area will remain stable with a slight increase, ensuring domestic supply [16] 3.2 Imports: Later Imports to Increase - In 2024/25, the cumulative corn imports were 1.52 million tons, a decrease of about 19.2 million tons from the previous year. The theoretical import profit has expanded, and with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn, later imports are expected to increase significantly [20] 3.3 Demand: Expanding Breeding Scale and Increasing Feed Consumption - From January to May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 130.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding industries will support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [25] 3.4 Deep - processing: Weak Economic Situation and Decreasing Deep - processing Demand - Due to the weak macro - economic situation, the consumption of deep - processed corn products has declined. The corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by about 4% year - on - year. Corn starch deep - processing is not expected to improve significantly [28][30] 3.5 Substitutes: Domestic Raw Materials Key to Filling the Energy Raw Material Gap - Wheat has a substitution advantage over corn in North China, but large - scale substitution has not occurred in the South. The impact of imported substitutes on domestic corn is weakening. The auctions of aged rice and imported corn are uncertain factors [32] 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The international corn market is expected to be loose, and domestic corn supply will be tight before the new crop is launched. After the new crop is launched in the fourth quarter, the market may face pressure. In the third quarter, buy on dips; in the fourth quarter, be bearish if the output is good [35]

Group 1 - The collaboration between Qingdao and Gansu's Dingxi and Longnan cities has resulted in significant agricultural development, including the establishment of blueberry greenhouses and the introduction of high-value crops like water bamboo [1][2] - Qingdao has sent 113 officials and 2,735 specialized talents to support agricultural projects, coordinating procurement and sales worth 95.91 billion yuan, and facilitating 320 industrial cooperation projects with 59.4 billion yuan in actual funds [1] - The "dry to wet" project in Longnan has transformed barren land into productive rice fields, with expected yields of 10,000 yuan per mu, significantly increasing local income and employment opportunities [2][3] Group 2 - Qingdao's investment of 1.01 billion yuan in the Longnan mushroom industry park aims to create a full industrial chain, benefiting nearly 1,000 farmers and generating an average income increase of over 3,000 yuan per household [3][4] - The potato industry in Dingxi has seen improvements in yield from 2,000 jin to 8,500 jin per mu through irrigation and modern agricultural practices, with plans to invest over 40 million yuan annually for standardized base construction [4][5] - The establishment of the "Dingxi Wide Noodle" brand and the introduction of new technologies are enhancing product quality and market presence, contributing to local economic growth [5] Group 3 - Qingdao has invested 43 million yuan in the oil olive industry in Longnan, establishing a modern agricultural industrial park and introducing multiple projects to enhance the local processing industry [6] - The introduction of the Tiancheng Pharmaceutical project in Dingxi, with a total investment of 1.43 billion yuan, is expected to generate an annual output value of around 2 billion yuan and create approximately 600 jobs [7][8] - The collaboration has also focused on developing a supply chain for traditional Chinese medicine, enhancing the value of local medicinal herbs through modern processing techniques [9] Group 4 - The establishment of the "Qingding Smart Valley" incubator aims to transform technological achievements from Qingdao into local enterprises, with over 70% of registered companies being technology-based [9] - The introduction of a 500 million yuan AI platform project is expected to create a digital industry cluster worth over 1 billion yuan, positioning Dingxi as a significant computing power hub in Gansu [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut semi - annual research report dated June 27, 2025 [9][24][32] Group 2: International Peanut Situation - In 2024, among major peanut - producing countries, China accounted for 37% (1900 thousand tons), India 22% (1149 thousand tons), Nigeria 14% (710 thousand tons), the US 8% (430 thousand tons), and other countries had smaller shares [12] Group 3: Domestic Peanut Fundamentals Price Trends - There are price trend charts for Henan Zhengyang general - purpose peanuts, Shandong oil - type peanuts, peanut continuous contracts, and peanut continuous contract basis from 2021 - 2025 [15][18] Import and Export - There are cumulative import and export volume charts for Chinese peanut kernels, peanut oil from 2020 - 2025. In 2025, the import volume of peanut kernels in May was 67148 tons with a year - on - year decrease of 0.795343, and in April it was 53637 tons with a year - on - year decrease of 0.779907 [25][29] Peanut Oil Factory Indicators - There are charts for peanut oil factory peanut kernel inventory,开机率, peanut oil factory pressing volume, pressing profit, peanut oil and soybean oil price difference, peanut oil factory peanut oil price, peanut meal and soybean meal price difference, Shandong peanut meal price, and peanut oil factory peanut oil inventory from 2021 - 2025 [34][36][40][42][47] Planting Cost and Area - In 2025, the estimated total peanut planting costs per mu in Jilin, Shandong, Henan, and Liaoning Xingcheng were 1708 yuan, 1361 yuan, 1347 yuan, and 1901 yuan respectively. The national peanut planting area in 2025 was 4905 thousand hectares, showing an increase compared to previous years [50][52] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report has a section on future outlook and strategy recommendation, but specific content is not provided [53]