Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. soybean market currently has no weather premium, and the Sino - U.S. trade policy has not eased, putting pressure on U.S. soybeans, but the downside space is expected to be limited. Brazil's premium is relatively strong, offsetting the impact of the U.S. market decline on import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in the domestic far - month market, and the downside space of the 01 contract is expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long on dips [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This week, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans rose to 70%. In the next two weeks, there will be less rainfall in the production areas, but the temperature will be low, and the expected impact is limited. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China, the domestic soybean crushing volume in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the outlook for soybean meal remains positive. The progress of domestic soybean purchases from October to January is slow, and under the current Sino - U.S. trade policy, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month market [7] Demand - The expected high inventory of pig and poultry farming in the short - term supports feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is replacing corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, the trading volume of soybean meal increased [8] Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, and soybean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased [8] Price - related Data - On August 1st, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in different regions showed various values and changes. For example, in Dalian, it was 30 with a rise of 10; in Tianjin, it was - 50 with a fall of 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot to the main contract also varied by region, such as - 110 in Zhangjiagang. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in the East was - 75 with a rise of 24. There were also data on spreads like M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, etc., and the spot and盘面 spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [6][7]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper prices during the week was mainly due to the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy. Trump announced a 50% import tariff on copper tubes, pipe fittings, and other semi - finished copper products from this Friday, and extended it to copper - intensive finished products. However, core upstream products were excluded. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week. The price difference between COMEX copper and LME, SHFE copper will fluctuate and is expected to balance in the next 2 trading days. The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, but the short - term US market cannot digest it, which affects the price difference between LME and COMEX [3] Key Points from Different Sections Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 78,400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to sell 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, it is recommended to buy 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Readjustment of the US tariff policy [4] - Decline of the US dollar index due to employment data [6] - Obvious downward support [6] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies [6] - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies [6] - Excessively high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff policy adjustment [6] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,400 yuan/ton with no daily change. SHFE copper continuous - first contract is 78,400 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan (0.46%), and SHFE copper continuous - third contract is 78,330 yuan/ton with no daily change. The price of LME copper 3M is 9,633 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars (0.27%), and the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.21, up 0.06 (0.74%) [2][5][7] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,325 yuan/ton, 78,160 yuan/ton, and 78,460 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.3%, 0.27%, 0.31%, and 0.28%. The changes in the corresponding spot premium/discount also vary [9] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 805.43 yuan/ton, down 38.61 yuan (- 4.57%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1484.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan (- 0.1%). Similar changes are seen in the non - tax - included spreads [12] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,349 tons, up 727 tons (3.71%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons, down 1,760 tons (- 53.12%) [15] Inventories - The total LME copper inventory is 141,750 tons, up 3,550 tons (2.57%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 259,681 tons, up 11,046 tons (4.44%) [17][20] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit is - 249.88 yuan/ton, down 87.93 yuan (54.29%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars (- 1.18%) [21]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - Latest Closing Price of Tin: 264,950 yuan/ton [2] - Monthly Price Range Forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 14.36% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 26.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline [2] - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase [2] - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Tin price declined slightly during the week as expected due to limited macro - impact [3] - Myanmar's tin mine mining licenses are mostly approved, expected to resume work in late August, which is a major factor for tin fundamentals but unlikely to affect short - term supply - demand [3] - If Myanmar's resumption is below expectations again, previous negative factors may turn into short - term positives [3] - Tin price may fluctuate in the next week, and supply - side topics still have room for speculation [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle [4] - Myanmar's production resumption is below expectations [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals [5] - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China [5] - Slowdown of semiconductor sector expansion and transition from expansion to contraction cycle [5] Group 6: Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 265,220 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,215 | 530 | 1.62% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.12 | 0.1 | 1.25% | [6] Group 7: Spot Market Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 264,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.4% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 500 | - 200 | - 28.57% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 252,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.51% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 256,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.47% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 172,250 | - 3,500 | - 1.99% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 179,750 | - 3,500 | - 1.91% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 270,750 | - 6,500 | - 2.34% | [11] Group 8: Inventory Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 7,286 | - 143 | - 1.92% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Guangdong) | tons | 4,853 | 22 | 0.46% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Shanghai) | tons | 1,562 | - 165 | - 9.55% | | LME Tin Inventory (Total) | tons | 1,855 | 35 | 1.92% | [19] Group 9: Other Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 14,300.05 | 1,473.25 | - 9.34% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | - 500 | - 4.74% | [20]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月1日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 缩量下跌，两市成交额大幅回落至1.6万亿元以下 市场回顾 今日股指除中证1000指数收涨外，其余延续下跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落3376.85亿元。期指方 面，IM缩量上涨，其余品种均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 国务院常务会议审议通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，大力推进人工智能规模化商业化 应用，推动人工智能在经济社会发展各领域加快普及、深度融合。会议部署实施个人消费贷款贴息政策与服 务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，更好激发消费潜力、提升市场活力。 2. 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.8%，预期增长2.7%。 核心观点 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.52 | -0.63 | -0.13 | 0.25 | | 成交量（万手） | 9.9438 | 5.0833 | 8.9442 | 21.2982 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - In the short term, there are still fluctuations in the price spreads among COMEX copper, LME copper, and SHFE copper, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine the reasonable range of the spreads. The extremely high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be significantly affected. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend still depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes. Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [3] Group 3: Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,040 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Group 4: Copper Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2509C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, over - increase in the anti - involution event, and extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX due to US copper tariff policy adjustments [5][7] Group 6: Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,040 yuan/ton with no daily change; SHFE copper continuous - one is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan (-1.13%); SHFE copper continuous - three is 78,010 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME 3M copper is 9,803 US dollars/ton, up 40.5 US dollars (0.41%); the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.15, up 0.01 (0.12%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,565 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan (-0.91%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,985 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan (-0.15%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 78,890 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 79,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.19%) [8] Group 7: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipt is 18,083 tons, up 251 tons (1.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipt is 3,313 tons, down 1,354 tons (-29.01%) [14] Inventory Data - The total LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons (0.18%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 253,431 tons, up 9,650 tons (3.96%) [16][18] Group 8: Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 161.95 yuan/ton, up 151.48 yuan (-48.33%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.75 US dollars/ton with no daily change [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is potentially bullish, but short - term fluctuations in London gold have intensified. London gold has fallen below the 3300 mark, with key support at 3250 and resistance levels at 3300, 3350, 3370, and 3400. London silver has broken below the 37 area support, showing short - term weakness, and the support has shifted down to 36. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market continued its weakness. After the better - than - expected US small non - farm payrolls and Q2 GDP on Wednesday and Powell's hawkish speech, the better - than - expected US PCE and lower - than - expected weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday further cooled the September interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rose above 100, which was negative for precious metals. Additionally, the US "exemption" of refined copper tariffs caused a sharp drop in US copper prices, dragging down silver prices. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3342.3 per ounce, down 0.31%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, down 2.51%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 770.28 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9008 yuan per kilogram, down 2.21% [2]. - Trump said that the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods imported into the US starting from August 1st. The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a four - month high [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 38.2%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 13.6%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 32.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 7.9% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.86 tons to 954.51 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 87.58 tons to 15062.32 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.06 tons to 1208 tons, and the SGX silver inventory in the week ending July 25th increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week is data - intensive. On Friday, focus on the US July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30 and the ISM manufacturing PMI at 22:00 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - Data shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold main - continuous, SGX gold TD, CME gold main, SHFE silver main - continuous, SGX silver TD, CME silver main, SHFE - TD gold, SHFE - TD silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Data presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold inventory, CME gold inventory, SHFE gold position, SPDR gold position, SHFE silver inventory, CME silver inventory, SGX silver inventory, SHFE silver position, and SLV silver position [15]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - Data includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Kitco Metals网站：短期看涨情绪可能掩盖了黄金市场潜在的结构性疲软 五矿期货：美国经济与通胀数据具备韧性贵金属价格持续承压 新湖期货：黄金总体呈现震荡局势继续等待美联储降息指引 光大期货：美元显现触底回升态势黄金表现继续弱化 Zaner Metals：避险情绪升温给金价带来支撑 【机构观点分析】 五矿期货表示，鲍威尔在议息会议中表态强硬，几乎拒绝透露任何关于九月议息会议货币政策路径的信 息，他认为后续的货币政策路径取决于经济数据，关键在于"把握时机"。议息会议后市场降低了对于联 储宽松政策的预期，CME利率观测器显示市场预计年内联储仅将在10月议息会议中进行25个基点的降 息操作，低于议息会议前定价的两次。联储货币政策表态转鹰派，贵金属价格短期将面临较强回调压 力，但基于后续就业数据以及关键票委表态所具备的不确定性，金银策略上建议暂时观望。 新湖期货表示，根据世界黄金协会最新公布的数据显示，全球央行二季度购金速度有所放缓，但购金量 仍高于过往平均，另外，二季度我国黄金ETF创下有史以来最强劲的季度表现，推动全球黄金投资需求 上行。近期，受累于美联储降息预期后移叠加关税给市场带来的不确定性整体回落，黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The current weak demand is due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation. After August, the balance will be relatively tight. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. Maintain a short - term cautious but long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper, and consider building virtual inventory in the third quarter [1]. - **Aluminum**: Supply has a slight increase, and the demand in August is in the seasonal off - season. There is a small inventory build - up in July and is expected to continue in August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [2]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is also weak. Suggest short - term observation, holding domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and paying attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - **Nickel**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories are stable. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply has partial passive production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have a slight reduction. Pay attention to policy trends [7]. - **Lead**: Lead prices had a slight correction this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, demand has improved but still has inventory build - up. It is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and domestic inventory is rising. Suggest short - term observation or short - selling at high prices [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon decreased in July. If the operating rate of Hesheng does not recover significantly, the market will oscillate; if the复产 of Hesheng and southwest regions accelerates, the market will be in surplus and prices will oscillate weakly [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong in both supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disruptions. In the long - term, if the supply disruptions are resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 0, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1350 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 2400 tons [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The weak demand is due to the off - season and trans - shipment factors. The annual apparent demand is expected to be 4.8% - 5.5%. The price below 78,000 is the psychological price for industrial restocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increased slightly, demand in August is in the off - season, and inventory is expected to continue to build up slightly [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 4250 tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. Suggest short - term observation and relevant arbitrage strategies [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1900 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory increased by 600 tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories are stable [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, etc. remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has partial passive production cuts, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have a slight reduction [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the spot premium of lead changed by 0, and the LME inventory increased by 125 tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, demand has improved but still has inventory build - up. It is expected to oscillate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the LME inventory of tin remained unchanged at 1945 tons [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and domestic inventory is rising. Suggest short - term observation or short - selling at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 30, the 421 Yunnan basis and other data changed, and the total production decreased in July [15]. - **Market Analysis**: If the operating rate of Hesheng does not recover significantly, the market will oscillate; if the复产 of Hesheng and southwest regions accelerates, the market will be in surplus and prices will oscillate weakly [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 25 - 31, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 950 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7586 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The current fundamentals are strong in both supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disruptions. In the long - term, if the supply disruptions are resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains [17].

Core Viewpoint - Recent commodity futures have experienced significant price volatility, raising concerns about the healthy development of the futures market amid a stark contrast between strong macro expectations and weak industrial fundamentals [1] Investor Behavior - Investors need to respect the market and adhere to discipline, making rational decisions amidst significant market fluctuations. Many investors struggle to detach from their inherent thinking, leading to losses when attempting to short or chase prices [2][3] - Individual investors should recognize the high risks associated with futures trading, avoid the illusion of quick wealth, and maintain strict control over their risk exposure [3] Institutional Investor Role - Institutional investors should act as stabilizers in the market, conducting in-depth research on macro policies and industrial fundamentals to form independent investment logic, rather than merely following policy signals [2] Regulatory and Service Institutions - Futures exchanges must act decisively to cool down irrational market behaviors by implementing risk control measures such as adjusting trading limits and margin requirements [4] - Futures companies play a crucial role in risk management and should proactively educate clients about risks, monitor trading behaviors, and provide high-quality research to guide rational investment [5] Collaborative Governance - The stable and healthy development of the futures market is essential for protecting investors, especially those with lower risk tolerance. A collaborative effort among regulatory bodies, market participants, and investors is necessary to mitigate risks associated with the disparity between strong expectations and weak realities [6]