资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现，权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 ： | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹：20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...

Core Insights - The Cuban government has announced an annual investment plan totaling 1.74 trillion pesos to address urgent economic and social development needs [1] Group 1: Investment Allocation - 67% of the funds will be focused on three priority areas: food production, industrial revitalization, and the reconstruction of the electricity system [1] - 95% of the investment will be directed towards ongoing projects aimed at enhancing the self-sufficiency of strategic industries [1] Group 2: Strategic Projects - The plan includes modernization of the Antillana steel plant in collaboration with Russia, expansion of cement production capacity, and various agricultural, forestry, tobacco, and livestock projects [1] - New photovoltaic power plants and maintenance of thermal power plants are also part of the investment strategy [1] Group 3: Infrastructure and Social Welfare - The investment will cover housing, water management, tourism, and other infrastructure and social welfare areas, with plans to construct over 9,000 state-owned housing units and renovate 38 tourism hotels [1] - Upgrades to the national water supply system and support for the production of essential medicines and biotechnology research are also included [1]

Core Insights - Turkey's agricultural, food, and beverage industry is projected to achieve an export value of $27.79 billion by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.35% [1] - The industry is expected to record a trade surplus of $4.91 billion in 2025, while imports are anticipated to rise significantly by 25.47% to $22.88 billion [1] - The unit export price has increased by 9.38% year-on-year, reaching $1,436 per ton, indicating an enhancement in the added value of exported products [1] Export Performance - Fresh fruits and vegetables lead the export category with an export value of $3.87 billion [1] - Confectionery products follow with an export value of $3.59 billion [1] - Nuts rank third with an export value of $2.27 billion [1] Top Export Products - Refined sunflower oil is the highest exported agricultural product, exceeding $1 billion in export value [1] - Hazelnuts are close behind, with export values nearing $1 billion [1] - Citrus products rank third with an export value of $891.7 million [1] Import Performance - Soybean imports are the highest, amounting to $1.77 billion [1] - Sunflower seed oil ranks second in imports with a value of $1.25 billion [1] - Animal feed is the largest import category, with an import value of $5.71 billion [1]

2月3日，2026年中央一号文件向社会公布。这是党的十八大以来，中央连续出台的第14个指导"三 农"工作的一号文件。 如何更好巩固提升粮食安全保障能力？对过渡期后常态化帮扶有哪些设计安排？怎样加快补上农 业农村现代生活条件短板？4日在国新办召开的新闻发布会上，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、 中央农办主任韩文秀，中央财办副主任、中央农办副主任祝卫东深入解读中央一号文件精神。 巩固提升粮食安全保障能力 韩文秀表示，2025年我国人均粮食占有量达到508.9公斤，粮食等重要农产品供给丰富、市场平 稳、储备充足。 "虽然粮食连续多年丰产丰收，但供需总体紧平衡的格局没有改变，且从历史经验来看，粮食生产 滑坡容易上坡难，粮食安全这根弦必须始终绷紧。"他说，文件对提升农业综合生产能力和质量效 益作出部署。 紧抓粮食生产。持续稳面积、提单产，确保粮食产量稳定在1.4万亿斤左右。由产量主导向产量品 质并重转变，促进适销对路、优质优价。 推动产能提升。要加力实施新一轮粮食产能提升行动，全方位夯实粮食生产的根基。严守耕地红 线，同时分区分类推进高标准农田建设。还要提升农业科技创新效能。 强化防灾减灾。要把农业防灾减灾体系建设摆在更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Positive Energy Network Boutique Collection and Broadcasting Activity is currently underway, focusing on the theme "You and I Striving, China Advancing," aiming to resonate with the public and inject strong energy into national construction and rejuvenation [2][4]. Economic Development - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, achieving a growth rate of around 5%, placing it among the leading major economies globally, showcasing strong development resilience and internal momentum [2]. - The total grain output is expected to stabilize above 1.4 trillion jin, ensuring food security [2]. - The operational mileage of China's high-speed rail is set to surpass 50,000 kilometers, enhancing innovation-driven development [2]. - The integration of the digital economy with the real economy is deepening, with emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and industrial internet thriving [2]. Social Contributions - Numerous ordinary individuals are highlighted for their contributions, such as a bank employee who rescued four drowning individuals and an agricultural expert who improved crop yields over 50 years [3]. - The dedication and qualities of these individuals contribute to a nurturing social environment, fostering a culture of kindness and resilience [3]. Cultural and Value Promotion - The activity aims to select impactful online content that reflects mainstream values, capturing the experiences of ordinary workers and their contributions to societal progress [3]. - The collection includes well-crafted texts, images, and videos that resonate with the public, enhancing the expression of mainstream values and creating a sense of community among netizens [3][4]. Future Vision - The event serves not only as a showcase of achievements but also as a mobilization for the future, encouraging individuals to be both witnesses and creators of positive energy [4]. - The collective efforts of individuals are expected to contribute significantly to national rejuvenation, propelling China towards a brighter future [4].

唐丽霞：常态化 帮扶成长期制度 安排，更依赖产 业和就业｜专家 解读一号文件 ③_南方+_南方 plus ▲点击查看"聚焦2026中央一号文件"系列报道 日前，中央一号 文件发布， 对"十五五"开局 之年"三农"工作 作出系统部署。 今年是防止返贫 致贫工作进入常 态化运行新阶段 的起始之年，文 件强调，过渡期 后，在持续巩固 拓展脱贫攻坚成 果的基础上，要 把防止返贫致贫 工作提升为常态 化机制，守 牢"不发生规模 性返贫致贫"底 线。 围绕文件有关部 署，南方农村报 记者采访了中国 农业大学国际发 展与全球农业学 院副院长、教授 唐丽霞。她表 示，我国减贫治 理经历了从开发 式扶贫到精准扶 贫、从"反贫 困"到"防贫 困"的阶段性跃 升。随着过渡期 的结束，常态化 帮扶的提出，既 回应了"帮扶工 作会不会弱化、 投入会不会退 出"的社会关 切，也标志着减 贫治理正式从集 中攻坚转向制度 化、常规化运 行。过去五年过 渡期的实践探 索，为常态化帮 扶的开展奠定了 制度共识，也形 成了一套成熟的 技术方法，让常 态化帮扶有章可 循、有据可依。 过渡期结束，减 贫相关政策是否 会逐步弱化，甚 至退出历史舞 台。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government has released the 14th guiding document on "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" since the 18th National Congress, focusing on modernizing agriculture and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Agricultural Modernization - The document emphasizes the goal of anchoring agricultural and rural modernization, planning annual work with a focus on strengthening the agricultural foundation and addressing modernization shortcomings [1] - By 2025, China's grain production is expected to stabilize at over 1.4 trillion jin for two consecutive years, with a focus on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality [2] Group 2: Agricultural Production and Quality - The key measures include maintaining grain planting areas and improving the yield of grain and oil crops to ensure food security [3] - The document stresses the need to transform agricultural development methods to better align with consumer demand for agricultural products [3] Group 3: Income Stability for Farmers - The document highlights the importance of promoting stable income for farmers, targeting a per capita disposable income of 24,456 yuan by 2025, representing a 6% real growth from the previous year [6] - It outlines strategies to enhance both operational and wage income for farmers [6] Group 4: Continuous Support Mechanisms - The concept of "normalized precise assistance" is introduced, transitioning from a focus on poverty alleviation to ongoing support for previously impoverished areas and populations [4] - The document calls for tailored assistance strategies, including safety nets for those unable to work and development-oriented support for those who can [6] Group 5: Rural Development Strategies - The document advocates for a "localized" approach to rural construction, emphasizing the need to respect local conditions and resources [10] - It suggests optimizing village layouts and construction methods based on local characteristics and population dynamics [11]

宏观日报 | 2026-02-04 警惕上游价格回调风险 中观事件总览 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）有色：镍、铝价格持续回落。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回调。3）化工：化工品价格近期波动。 中游：1）化工：PX开工率高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量低位。3）农业：生猪制品开工上行 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售季节性回落。2）服务：国内航班班次上行。 生产行业：1）2026年中央一号文件2月3日发布，这也是"十五五"首个中央一号文件。《中共中央国务院关于锚定 农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》提出，锚定农业农村现代化，以推进乡村全面振兴为总抓手，以 学习运用"千万工程"经验为引领，以改革创新为根本动力，提高强农惠农富农政策效能，守牢国家粮食安全底线， 持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，提升乡村产业发展水平、乡村建设水平、乡村治理水平，努力把农业建成现代化大 产业、使农村基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好，为推进中国式现代化提供基础支撑。 服务行业：1）央行加量续作3个月期买断式逆回购，持续向市场注入中期 ...

报告指出，这五年，中山城乡融合发展深入推进，"百千万工程"初见成效。镇域发展活力增强。完成火 炬高新区统筹民众、翠亨新区统筹南朗、小榄与东升合并，向镇街下放市级政务服务事权690项、收回 64项。经济总量超200亿元镇街由2020年4个增至2025年7个，小榄镇连续三年位列全国镇域经济17强、 经济总量突破600亿元。乡村振兴扎实推进。培育国家农业产业强镇3个，建成省、市现代农业产业园 9 个，创建"中山香农"区域公用品牌产品100个。累计恢复耕地2.76万亩，连续两年耕地净流入增长率居 全省第1，粮食面积、产量、单产连续五年实现增长。培育省级典型村96个，涉农村居 100%达到省美 丽宜居村标准，3个村居入围中国美丽休闲乡村。 采写：南都N视频记者吕婧 摄影：南都N视频记者吴进 2月4日上午，中山市第十六届人民代表大会第七次会议在中山市文化艺术中心开幕。市长尹念红作政府 工作报告。 ...

Core Insights - Yangjiang's general public budget revenue has surpassed 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 11.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, ranking third in the province [1][3]. Financial Performance - Tax revenue amounted to 7.149 billion yuan, accounting for 62.0% of total revenue, which is an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to 2024, indicating an improvement in revenue quality [3]. - The total public budget expenditure for the city was 27.41 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2% [25]. Expenditure Allocation - Significant allocations include 18.49 billion yuan for "three guarantees" (basic living security, education, and healthcare) and 1.52 billion yuan for ten key livelihood projects [17]. - Education received 5.28 billion yuan, while social security and employment were allocated 5.28 billion yuan [25]. Investment in Key Areas - The city has allocated 1.98 billion yuan to support the orderly transfer of industries and accelerate the integration into the Bay Area [8]. - Approximately 8.4 billion yuan is earmarked for key projects such as commercial aerospace launch sites and international wind power industrial cities [9]. Support for Economic Development - The city is focusing on enhancing market vitality with 649 million yuan directed towards emerging industries and urban renewal [11]. - A total of 99 billion yuan in new special bonds will be utilized, with over 90% directed towards high-quality development projects in counties and towns [14]. Environmental and Social Initiatives - 7.4 billion yuan is allocated for marine ecological restoration and soil protection, promoting sustainable use of marine resources [16]. - The city is investing 32.36 billion yuan in health and wellness, emphasizing grassroots healthcare capacity building [18].