1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited changes, and the spot market is weakly stable, waiting for a driving force. There is an opportunity to short caustic soda, but the upside space may also be large. The spot price is currently relatively strong, but as it enters the off - season later, the spot price may decline again [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The low - concentration caustic soda market price in China has strengthened slightly. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda before the holiday was 813 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.625 yuan/dry ton), and after the holiday, it was 315 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.675 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.2 Spread 3.2.1 Model Spread - The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali and the spread between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali vary in different regions and show different trends over time [27][31]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - The regional spreads of 32 - alkali, 50 - alkali, and 99 - flake caustic soda between different regions also have different trends over time [34][35]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 85.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 86.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35% [40]. 3.3.2 Maintenance Situation - There are long - term shutdown, this - week maintenance, and future - planned maintenance situations for chlor - alkali plants. For example, Yangmei in North China - Shanxi has been shut down since 2016, and Jiangsu Xinpu in East China - Jiangsu has resumed operation after maintenance from August 25th to September 14th [45]. 3.3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The operation status of flake caustic soda plants varies among different manufacturers. For example, Xinjiang Zhongtai's flake caustic soda plant in Shengxiong Factory has been under semi - load maintenance from September 6th to 26th, and there are also plans for future maintenance [47]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Alumina - The alumina market has different price trends, spreads, production profits, operating rates, and inventory situations. For example, the average price of alumina in different regions shows different trends over time, and the production profit also fluctuates [54]. 3.4.2 Other Downstream Industries - In the viscose staple fiber industry, the capacity utilization rate this week is 89.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%. In the printing and dyeing industry, as of October 9th, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 66.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47% [53]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 3, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 24.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, and the inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories is 2.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.59% [69]. 3.6 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market is stable this week, and the price of domestic thermal coal is rising. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali at the spot end this week is basically the same as last week [75]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - For chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC, the benchmark spot price shows a certain trend over time. The production capacity utilization rate and production profit of other chlorine - consuming products such as epoxy propane and epoxy chloropropane also have different performance [87][93]. 3.8 Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participants in the industrial chain have different operation suggestions. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can consider building inventory by selling put options and buying call options [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, the post - holiday futures market dropped significantly due to inventory accumulation during the holiday and light spot trading. In the short term, it lacks support and is weak, but there is demand support in the medium - to - long term. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve, and it is expected to have limited downside space during the peak season, with attention on downstream demand [2]. - Futures strategy: Both caustic soda and PVC should be treated bearishly [2]. - Options strategy: Hold put options for both caustic soda and PVC [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Price Trends**: The price of caustic soda futures has fluctuated due to various factors such as alumina production, cost changes, and market sentiment. After the holiday, there was inventory accumulation and slow de - stocking in the first week, and the market was weak [5]. - **Supply**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity in Chinese enterprises with 200,000 tons or more decreased by 0.7% week - on - week from September 26 - October 2 to October 3 - 9, 2025. In September, the national caustic soda output was 3.512 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% [24]. - **Demand**: Alumina has a large number of planned new production capacities from the end of 2024 to 2025, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year [29]. - **Profit**: The profit of caustic soda enterprises has been affected by factors such as the price of liquid chlorine and raw materials [5]. 3.2 PVC - **Price Trends**: The PVC futures price has continued to decline due to lack of positive drivers in supply - demand and a poor commodity atmosphere. After the holiday, the market sentiment weakened, and the demand was hard to improve [61]. - **Supply**: In the week of the report, the PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%. In September 2025, the domestic PVC output was 2.0308 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [83]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure, and the real - estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [90]. - **Profit**: The industry profit of PVC has weakened month - on - month, and the profit of calcium carbide enterprises has improved slightly [67][72]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has increased, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [98]. - **Foreign Market**: In August 2025, the PVC import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export windows to Southeast Asia and India opened [116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading of caustic soda has improved, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of procurement. The supply is expected to decline slightly due to increased maintenance, and the demand from alumina is stable while non - aluminum demand is cautiously increasing. The cost support remains, but the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [1][2]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is in a weak state. The supply is abundant despite some reduction in quantity due to autumn maintenance. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The export has some resilience but is affected by Indian policies. The futures price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and the Politburo meeting [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of October 10, 2025, the SH main contract of caustic soda closed at 2470 yuan/ton (+20). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton (+5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of October 10, 2025, the PVC main contract closed at 4735 yuan/ton (-34). The spot price of PVC in East China was 4620 yuan/ton (+0), and in South China was 4700 yuan/ton (+0) [3][4]. III. Cost Profit - **Caustic Soda**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 748.28 yuan/ton (-24.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 177.28 yuan/ton (+30.63). The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1571.40 yuan/ton (+15.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1311.75 yuan/ton (-20.00) [2]. - **PVC**: The single - variety production profit of PVC by the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton (+152.89), and by the ethylene method was - 538.36 yuan/ton (+19.87). The export profit of PVC was 19 US dollars/ton (+0) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - The caustic soda operating rate was 84.30% (-0.80%), and the weekly output was 82.83 tons (-0.62). Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity has reached full production, and the number of maintenance enterprises will increase next week, with an expected slight decline in output [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of October 10, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton (-50). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and dichloromethane increased, and the weekly output of chloroform was 3.27 tons (+0.16) [2]. VI. PVC Supply - The average operating load of upstream calcium carbide was 65.72% (+0.17%), the PVC operating rate was 82.63% (+1.21%), and the operating rate of PVC by the calcium carbide method was 82.94% (+0.81%). Although there are many autumn maintenance enterprises in October, new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, and the supply is still abundant [4][5]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream product, alumina, was 86.32% (+0.14%), with a weekly output of 186.30 tons (+0.30). The operating rates of other downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp showed different changes [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 39.21% (-8.55%), with the operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films showing different trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC production enterprises was 58.31 tons (-19.27), and the export orders weakened this week, but there is still some resilience in exports [4][5]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 42.12 tons (+3.00), and the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.11 tons (+0.10). - **PVC**: The PVC factory inventory was 38.36 tons (+8.40), and the social inventory was 55.70 tons (+1.93) [2][5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] Report's Core View - The chemical industry as a whole is facing various challenges, including weak demand, high inventory, and pressure on supply. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is generally bearish. However, there are also some differences among different sub - industries, and specific product trends need to be analyzed based on their own fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are weak, with limited upward momentum for spot prices due to subdued demand and general market trading [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices continue to decline, with increased supply pressure from higher production and inventory accumulation [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are in a low - level shock, and styrene prices are under pressure due to weak cost support, sufficient supply, and lackluster demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling due to oil price decline. Near - term supply - demand is okay, but long - term pressure exists [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak fundamental situation with high domestic production and large port inventory accumulation [4] - Short fiber has some support from seasonal demand, while bottle chip demand is expected to weaken [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures stop falling, but near - term weakness persists due to high imports and inventory [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with high supply, large inventory, and limited export support [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak due to high supply, increased inventory, and low demand [6] - Caustic soda supply remains high, with downstream resistance to high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak, with long - term oversupply. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities [7] - Glass has seasonal inventory accumulation, but low - valuation limits the decline. Low - buying near cost can be considered [7]

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-10 节后累库，关注下游采购情况 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4769元/吨（-70）；华东基差-149元/吨（-10）;华南基差-59元/吨（+20）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4620元/吨（-80）；华南电石法报价4710元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2890元/吨（+0）；电石利润48元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-775元/吨（+9）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-558元/吨（+87）；PVC出口利润8.3美元/吨（+2.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.0万吨（-1.9）；PVC社会库存53.8万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率81.76%（+1.75%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.54%（+1.33%）；PVC开工率80.80%（+1.63%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.6万吨（+1.7）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1300元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1509元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨 ...

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Polyolefins**: PE's current maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up is gradually recovering. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. The pre - holiday CP settlement price has decreased, and the profit of PDH units has recovered. Attention should be paid to the return of PP units. In terms of demand, there are no bright spots, and there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday. Coupled with new capacity investment, the pressure of inventory accumulation in 01 is large, which limits the upside space [2]. - **Methanol**: The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports". The port arrival volume remains consistently high, the inventory accumulation is significant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a downward price trend. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although the number of unplanned maintenance units has increased recently, some units are expected to resume production in early October. The inventory pattern in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. In terms of valuation, the overall is in a neutral state. The current futures market is in a game situation, and future focus should be on the emergence of the inventory inflection point [5]. - **Polyester Industry Chain** - **PX**: The domestic PX load remains at a high level. The PTA processing fee is continuously low, new PTA device production is delayed, and multiple PTA units have maintenance plans. The PX supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. In the short term, PX has weak self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply is expected to shrink. The short - term downstream start - up remains at a relatively high level, and the PTA basis has been repaired, but the rebound space is limited under the weak expectation. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the National Day holiday, the port inventory has increased significantly. The domestic supply remains at a high level, and the supply - demand is gradually weakening. Therefore, the price of ethylene glycol is under pressure [8]. - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory pressure after the holiday is not significant. It is expected that the short - term support for short fibers is stronger than that of raw materials, but the driving force is limited, and the price will mainly follow the raw materials [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In October, there is no news of further production cuts for bottle chips. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the traditional off - season. The demand side has limited support for bottle chips. It is expected that bottle chips will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the price will mainly follow the cost side [8]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand growth has great uncertainty, with limited support. The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand side support may be limited. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure after the holiday [9]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda** - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term demand for caustic soda lacks support and tends to be weak, and it can be treated bearishly in the short term. However, there is demand support in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to resolve. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand in the peak season is not strong. The cost side provides bottom support. It is expected that the downside space of PVC is limited during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased, with declines of - 1.06%, - 0.86%, - 1.56%, and - 1.06% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased, with increases of 20.90% and 121.43% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LLDPE film decreased, with declines of - 1.04% and - 0.99% respectively [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 1.85% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 2.82% to 44.1%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 16.50% to 38.3 (in appropriate units), and the social inventory decreased by 1.93% to 52.5 million tons. The PP device start - up rate increased by 1.4% to 76.6%, the powder start - up rate increased by 4.3% to 35.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.7% to 61.5. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.50% to 52.0, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.58% to 18.7 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.63% and - 0.68% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 64.71%, and the Taicang basis increased by 9.24%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang decreased, with declines of - 0.36%, - 2.22%, and - 1.23% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94%, the port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3%. The start - up rates of Shanghai - domestic enterprises and Shanghai - overseas enterprises increased by 2.22% and 0.63% respectively. The northwest enterprise sales - production ratio increased by 9.60%, the downstream - external MTO device start - up rate increased by 4.63%, the downstream - formaldehyde start - up rate decreased by 7.22%, the downstream - acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 0.97%, and the downstream - MTBE start - up rate decreased by 0.59% [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price Changes**: From October 8th to 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (December) and WTI crude oil (November) decreased, with declines of - 1.6% and - 1.7% respectively. The price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, and the price of CFR China MX increased by 0.4%. The prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX remained unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips decreased, with declines of - 0.8%, - 0.5%, - 0.6%, and - 0.8% respectively. The cash - flows of POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased, with declines of - 7.9% and - 5.3% respectively. The cash - flow of DTY150/48 increased by 275.0%, and the polyester chip cash - flow increased by 20.3%. The bottle chip processing fee increased by 0.2%, and the bottle chip basis decreased by 70.0% [8]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The MEG port inventory increased by 24.0% to 50.7 million tons, and the arrival expectation decreased by 65.8% to 8.0 million tons. The Asian PX start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 78.0%, the Chinese PX start - up rate increased by 0.5% to 86.7%, the PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.8%, the MEG comprehensive start - up rate decreased by 2.4% to 73.1%, the coal - based MEG start - up rate decreased by 6.3% to 74.4%, the direct - spinning filament start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 93.5%, the polyester bottle chip start - up rate decreased by 5.8% to 67.8%, the pure - polyester yarn start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 64.2%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate increased by 3.8% to 81%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate increased by 6.1% to 70%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang printing start - up rate increased by 5.6% to 76% [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (November), WTI crude oil (October), CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased, with declines of - 2.7%, - 1.4%, - 1.3%, and - 0.6% respectively. The price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 2.2%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread increased by 1.3% [9]. - **Styrene - related Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The price of styrene in East China remained unchanged. The prices of EB2510 and EB2511 decreased, with declines of - 0.2% and - 0.2% respectively. The EB basis (10) increased by 12.5%, the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 5.0%, the non - integrated EB cash - flow increased by 11.3%, and the integrated EB cash - flow increased by 13.6%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 1.9%, and the EB10 - BZ03 spread increased by 2.7% [9]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.2% to 9.10 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 2.2% to 20.19 million tons. The Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained unchanged at 79.0%, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 79.3%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 6.8% to 64.0%, the benzene production start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 78.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 5.7% to 93.8%, the benzene - related start - up rate increased by 4.0% to 74.9%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.2%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 3.4% to 59.1%, the downstream EPS start - up rate decreased by 10.5% to 55.3%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 70.0% [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC decreased, with declines of - 1.3% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of SHS209 and SH2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.8% and - 3.2% respectively. The SH basis increased by - 33.1%, and the SH2509 - 2601 spread increased by 28.9%. The prices of V2509 and V2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.0% and - 1.4% respectively. The V basis decreased by - 0.8%, and the V2509 - V2601 spread increased by 3.3% [10]. - **Export and Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 26.3%. The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged, the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port increased by 0.8%, and the export profit increased by 323.8% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.6% to 86.8%, the Shandong sample start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 85.6%, the PVC total start - up rate increased by 0.9% to 76.1%, the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 11.2% to - 896.0 yuan/ton, and the northwest integrated profit decreased by 68.9% to 43.3 yuan/ton. The alumina industry start - up rate remained unchanged at 83.7%, the viscose staple fiber industry start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8%, the printing and dyeing industry start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 66.2%. The Longzhong sample profile start - up rate increased by 3.3% to 40.4, the Longzhong sample profile start - up rate decreased by 1.3% to 38.0, and the Longzhong sample PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% to 75.9 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased by 14.2% to 19.7 million tons, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 9.9% to 11.1 million tons, the PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 3.9% to 31.8 million tons, and the PVC total social inventory remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The average capacity utilization rate of China's sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above increased slightly, and the overall caustic soda production capacity utilization rate increased slightly with little change. The downstream alumina device runs stably with a slight increase in the start - up rate, while the start - up rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing change slightly. During the holiday, some downstream enterprises stopped work, leading to inventory accumulation and high pressure in liquid caustic soda factories. The subsidy of liquid chlorine in Shandong cannot offset the weak caustic soda price, and the chlor - alkali profit narrows month - on - month. The expected decrease in the maintenance loss of chlor - alkali devices in October may drive up the central value of caustic soda capacity utilization. The alumina profit continues to decline and approaches the break - even line, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks demand improvement signals and is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There was an inventory accumulation expectation for liquid caustic soda factories during the National Day due to logistics blockages, and the inventory pressure may ease after the festival. There are new alumina device investments from the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, giving an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the long - term. Technically, the short - term market trend of SH2601 is bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract is 102,719 lots, an increase of 18,857 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2697 lots, a decrease of 3064 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 290,860 lots, an increase of 116,592 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu is 940 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis of caustic soda is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu is - 75 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,120 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina is 2885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises was 82.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. From September 27th to October 3rd, the national alumina start - up rate was 86.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. From September 26th to October 9th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate decreased by 0.19% month - on - month to 89.63%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 0.47% month - on - month to 66.63%. As of October 9th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56%. From September 19th to 25th, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and a notable decline in demand from downstream industries [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2520.0 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 2526.0 CNY and a minimum of 2442.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.35% [1] - The overall performance of the caustic soda market is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected decrease in maintenance losses for chlor-alkali plants in October may lead to an increase in caustic soda production capacity utilization [1] - Despite the decline in alumina profits nearing the breakeven point, there are no large-scale production cut plans, suggesting that short-term caustic soda demand will not significantly shrink [1] - The logistics disruptions during the National Day holiday have led to expectations of inventory accumulation in liquid caustic soda plants [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As downstream non-aluminum industries resume operations post-holiday, the inventory pressure on liquid caustic soda plants may ease [1] - New alumina production facilities are expected to come online in Q4 this year to early next year, which could improve supply-demand dynamics in the long term [1] - The price range for caustic soda futures is anticipated to be between 2470-2580 CNY in the near term [1] Group 4: Regional Insights - In Shandong, there is no significant positive demand post-National Day, leading to high operational loads for chlor-alkali enterprises and increased inventory pressure [2] - The overall supply pressure remains due to the commissioning of new facilities, while the demand from downstream sectors is not meeting expectations [2] - The textile and dyeing industries are seeing a slight increase in operating rates, but the overall demand recovery is still dependent on marginal improvements from downstream sectors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xinjinlu's stock has shown significant price increases this year, with a 60% rise year-to-date and a 10.77% increase over the last five trading days [1] - As of October 9, Xinjinlu's stock price reached 5.76 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.736 billion CNY [1] - The company has experienced net outflows of main funds amounting to 19.04 million CNY, with large orders showing a buy-sell imbalance [1] Group 2 - Xinjinlu's main business involves the production and operation of chlor-alkali chemicals and plastic products, with revenue composition being 41.61% from resin products, 38.43% from alkali products, and 19.97% from others [1] - The company is classified under the basic chemical industry, specifically in chlor-alkali chemicals, and is associated with several concept sectors including small-cap, military information technology, and aerospace military [2] - As of September 10, the number of Xinjinlu's shareholders decreased by 17.24% to 53,600, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 20.83% to 11,312 shares [2] Group 3 - Xinjinlu reported a revenue of 816 million CNY for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -67.04 million CNY, down 15.16% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Xinjinlu has distributed a total of 124 million CNY in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]