历经连续回调后，今天科技板块强势反弹。 进入2025年四季度以来，全球宏观经济预期、产业政策、技术进步、供需格局变化等多重因素交织，共同塑造了包括锂、稀土在内的稀有金属板块的投资 图景。 相关品种都出现了商品价格上涨，对应上市公司业绩改善，估值修复（或提升）的迹象。 这并非简单的价格反弹，而是新一轮，也可能是较以往更为庞大的产业周期反转的开端。 其中，锂矿板块最为亮眼，多家公司涨停。 稀有金属ETF(562800)跟踪的，全市场锂矿概念含量最高（占比达到41.59%）的指数--CS稀金属指数，今天强势领涨，上涨幅度达到4.21%。 01、供应趋紧，价格上涨 以今天关注最高的稀有金属板块--锂矿为例。 碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中涨超6%，碳酸锂2602购106000期权合约暴涨116.84%，从昨收价1900涨至4120；碳酸锂2602购108000期权合约暴涨115.15%，从 昨收价1650涨至3550；碳酸锂2602购104000期权合约暴涨114.35%，从昨收价2300涨至4930。 这并非单纯的超跌反弹，而是行业基本面出现积极变化的信号共振，是锂矿行业供需再平衡下的又一力证。 由于电动车的需求放量，带动 ...

其三，英国北海油气资产遭遇严重价值折损。因两年半内五次调整财税体系且监管政策不明，该地区油 气资产隐含长期油价(ILTOP)仅约40美元/桶，较经合组织(OECD)70美元/桶的平均水平折价40%，投资 者信心崩塌，资本投入停滞。 中化新网讯 近日，伍德麦肯兹发布最新《地平线》报告称，2025年，五大趋势重塑了全球能源资源领 域，其背后是地缘格局变动、产业战略重构与技术迭代加速的共同驱动。 其一，美国LNG实现颠覆性逆转。短短10年间，美国从LNG进口国蜕变为全球最大出口国，预计2030 年其LNG产量将占全球30%;同时美国还领跑全球油气生产，产量占全球五分之一，远超沙特和俄罗 斯。 其二，稀土成全球贸易核心焦点。稀土广泛应用于可再生能源、高端武器、半导体等关键领域，仅磁体 用途就占其总需求近半。 其四，欧洲石化产业出现大规模产能清退。为减排推进的去工业化，导致欧洲乙烯产能持续关停，2022 年至2027年相关产能退出每年造成40亿美元的总附加值损失。 其五，AI成为电力需求增长的核心引擎。数据中心半数运营成本来自电力，电价成为AI竞争关键变 量。美国电力市场受AI驱动，2030年前电力需求复合增长率将达2 ...

融券方面，中国稀土12月16日融券偿还6.70万股，融券卖出2.91万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 125.48万元；融券余量35.70万股，融券余额1539.38万元，低于近一年50%分位水平，处于较低位。 来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 12月16日，中国稀土跌3.86%，成交额12.75亿元。两融数据显示，当日中国稀土获融资买入额8555.68 万元，融资偿还1.12亿元，融资净买入-2680.09万元。截至12月16日，中国稀土融资融券余额合计20.29 亿元。 融资方面，中国稀土当日融资买入8555.68万元。当前融资余额20.13亿元，占流通市值的4.40%，融资 余额超过近一年60%分位水平，处于较高位。 分红方面，中国稀土A股上市后累计派现3.46亿元。近三年，累计派现1.24亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，中国稀土十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股2906.94万股，相比上期增加946.69万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第五大流通股 东，持股1079.60万股，相比上期减少27.03万股。嘉实中证稀土产业ETF（516150）位居第六 ...

2025年12月17日稀土价格一览 | | | 中钨在线稀土产品报价表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年12月17日 | | | | | 产品名称 | | 规格/含量/牌号 | 中钨在线报价 | 涨跌 | 車位 | | | 氧化铜 | La2O3/TREO 99.5-99.9% | 4.400.00 | 1 | 元/吨 | | | 氧化镇 | Eu2O3/TREO 99.95-99.99% | 170.00 | - | 元/千克 | | 轻 稀 | 氧化错 | Pr6011/TREO 99.0-99.9% | 595,000.00 | 2,000 | 元/吨 | | t | 氧化紋 | Nd2O3/TREO 99.0-99.9% | 592,000.00 | 1,000 | 元/吨 | | | 氧化错效 | (Nd2O3+Pr6O11)/TREO≥75.0% | 579.000.00 | ¥ 1,000 | 元/吨 | | | 错钩变属 | Pr/TREM 20-25% Nd/TREM75-80% TREM298.5% | 70 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The November 2025 economic data shows that the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5.0% and previous value of 4.9% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 2.9% [5] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to -2.6%, worse than the expected -2.3% and previous -1.7% [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds increased by 1 to 4 basis points, while the overall credit bond issuance scale grew [8] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with company bonds and medium-term notes seeing positive net financing [8] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced a rise in transaction volume, with most credit bond yields declining [8] Fund Research - The total scale of the CSI A500 ETF surpassed 210 billion yuan, with notable performance in the communication and defense industries [11] - The average return of equity funds increased by 0.83%, with a positive return ratio of 57.63% [12] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 12.827 billion yuan, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs [13] Industry Research - The steel industry faces weakening demand as the off-season progresses, leading to downward pressure on steel prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable due to tightening supply forecasts for 2026, supported by macroeconomic conditions [16] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to see stable profits due to strict domestic production limits, with demand driven by new energy vehicles [17] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors, with a long-term bullish outlook due to central bank purchases [18] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from export controls and strategic importance, with a focus on companies with strong resource and processing capabilities [18]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth market is experiencing slight price adjustments, with mixed trends across different products, indicating a generally subdued market atmosphere [1] Price Adjustments - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide average price is 577,400 CNY/ton, down 1,000 CNY/ton - Praseodymium and neodymium metal average price is 702,300 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton - Dysprosium oxide average price is 1,401,400 CNY/ton, up 23,900 CNY/ton - Terbium oxide average price is 6,241,700 CNY/ton, down 49,700 CNY/ton [1] Market Activity - Limited transaction information for products like neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, lanthanum cerium oxide, europium oxide, and yttrium oxide, suggesting cautious market participation - Praseodymium and neodymium products are maintaining a weak and stable operation, with market activity remaining generally low - The heavy rare earth market is seeing minimal demand-driven transactions, with recent positive rumors contributing to the price rebound of dysprosium [1] Stock Performance - A-share market performance for rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks shows mixed results: - Huicheng Environmental (300779) latest price: 137.53 CNY, change: +1.78%, turnover: 654 million CNY - Yahua Group (002497) latest price: 21.73 CNY, change: +1.78%, turnover: 969 million CNY - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) latest price: 39.26 CNY, change: +0.92%, turnover: 281 million CNY - Ximic Technology (920061) latest price: 29.40 CNY, change: +0.75%, turnover: 83.26 million CNY - Benlang New Materials (920807) latest price: 14.76 CNY, change: +0.75%, turnover: 4.26 million CNY [1]

今年以来，港股在全球主要股市中表现突出，恒生指数等年内涨幅超过20%。不过，自10月中旬以来， 港股市场进入调整阶段，波动有所加大，11月整体呈现震荡走势，12月以来的调整幅度有所加大。 港股作为典型的离岸市场，其流动性受海外环境影响显著，而基本面则与内地经济紧密相连。相比基本 面，流动性对港股行情的影响更为直接和迅速，其中科技类资产对利率变化更为敏感。 除了流动性，估值优势、资产质量提升与市场生态重塑多重因素，也将促使港股估值修复。多家券商机 构展望2026年港股行情时指出，随着港股基本面触底反弹，叠加其依旧显著的估值折价，港股市场在 2026年将迎来第二轮估值修复以及业绩进一步复苏的行情。 南向资金创纪录流入 中信证券也表示，考虑到理财和货基等产品收益率持续下滑，而今年以来中国资产的"赚钱效应"愈发显 著，居民"存款搬家"现象或将持续。特别考虑到港股的低配情况，预计南向资金将持续增配港股，尤其 散户资金有较大的增配空间。 回购热情升温 与南向资金涌入相呼应的是，港股市场回购热情出现升温。 数据显示，截至2025年12月15日，港股上市公司今年以来的回购金额为1693.45亿港元，相比2024年 2655. ...

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% year-to-date, but has entered a correction phase since mid-October, with increased volatility and a downward trend in December [1] - The market's liquidity is significantly influenced by the overseas environment, while its fundamentals are closely tied to the mainland economy, with liquidity having a more immediate impact on market performance [1] - Multiple factors, including valuation advantages and improved asset quality, are expected to drive valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market, with projections indicating a second round of valuation recovery and performance rebound by 2026 [1] Group 2: Southbound Capital Inflows - A notable feature of the Hong Kong market in 2025 is the record inflow of southbound capital, with a net buying amount reaching 1.39 trillion HKD by December 15, 2025, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [2] - Southbound capital has provided substantial liquidity to the Hong Kong market, enhancing the pricing power of mainland investors, with the total market value of southbound holdings exceeding 6.3 trillion HKD, accounting for 12.7% of the total market capitalization [2] - The inflow of southbound capital is linked to a loose monetary policy environment, with a significant increase in trading volume, which reached a historical high of 57.5 trillion HKD in the first 11 months of 2025, a 94.5% increase year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Projections for Southbound Capital - Future projections for southbound capital inflows suggest an increase of 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital, with potential inflows from individual investors estimated between 2.5 billion HKD to 5 billion HKD over the next year [3] - The ongoing trend of "deposit migration" among residents, driven by declining yields on financial products, is expected to continue, with significant room for retail investors to increase their allocation to Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 4: Share Buyback Trends - The enthusiasm for share buybacks in the Hong Kong market has increased, with total buyback amounts reaching 169.35 billion HKD in 2025, although this is lower than the 265.51 billion HKD recorded in 2024 [4] - Monthly buyback amounts have surged since October, with 93.72 billion HKD in October, 117.42 billion HKD in November, and 115.24 billion HKD in the first half of December, indicating a strong upward trend [4][5] Group 5: External Capital Flows - In 2025, external capital flows into the Hong Kong market have turned positive, with inflows of 13.44 billion USD reported, and foreign cornerstone investors actively participating in IPOs [6] - The potential for further foreign capital inflows is contingent on domestic fundamentals and the RMB exchange rate, with expectations for a slight decrease in inflow scale compared to 2025 but still strong relative to southbound capital [6] Group 6: Market Recovery Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from a series of reforms and external economic policies, with projections for a rebound in 2026 driven by improved corporate earnings and continued inflows of southbound and foreign capital [7][8] - Key investment directions include technology sectors, healthcare, resource commodities, essential consumer goods, and industries benefiting from RMB appreciation [7]

今年以来，港股在全球主要股市中表现突出，恒生指数等年内涨幅超过20%。不过，自10月中旬以来，港股市场进入调整阶段，波动有所加大，11月整体呈现震 荡走势，12月以来的调整幅度有所加大。 港股作为典型的离岸市场，其流动性受海外环境影响显著，而基本面则与内地经济紧密相连。相比基本面，流动性对港股行情的影响更为直接和迅速，其中科技类 资产对利率变化更为敏感。 除了流动性，估值优势、资产质量提升与市场生态重塑多重因素，也将促使港股估值修复。多家券商机构展望2026年港股行情时指出，随着港股基本面触底反弹， 叠加其依旧显著的估值折价，港股市场在2026年将迎来第二轮估值修复以及业绩进一步复苏的行情。 南向资金创纪录流入 2025年港股市场最显著的特征之一是南向资金的持续涌入，成为支撑港股今年整体表现较好的关键力量。 Wind数据显示，截至2025年12月15日，南向资金年内净买入额已达到1.39万亿港元，远超2024年全年水平，创下互联互通机制开通以来的新高。在此情况下，南向 资金通过港股通已累计净流入5.09万亿港元，距离5.10万亿港元关口只有一步之遥。 这一资金规模不仅为港股市场提供了充沛的流动性，更显著增强了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the rare earth supply chain agreement by the U.S. and its allies is primarily a strategic move to challenge China's dominance in the rare earth sector, rather than a simple resource cooperation initiative [1][3][8]. Group 1: Political Intentions - The agreement is seen as a U.S.-led action aimed at weakening China's advantages in resources, technology, and supply chains [3][8]. - The U.S. is anxious about China's overwhelming control over the global rare earth industry, with 91% of rare earth refining and separation capacity concentrated in China [3][10]. - The U.S. aims to establish a supply chain that bypasses China, laying the groundwork for future competition in AI [8][10]. Group 2: Implications for AI and Technology - The U.S. government links the rare earth supply chain to the AI industry, indicating that control over rare earth resources is crucial for competing in AI [10][13]. - The U.S. recognizes that without a stable supply of rare earths, advancements in AI technology cannot be realized [13][15]. - The agreement is expected to benefit U.S. mining, military, and tech sectors, ensuring a stable supply chain for high-tech industries over the next decade [17][20]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The agreement signifies a shift in global technology dynamics, where control over core resources will be as important as technological advancement [20][21]. - The U.S. is attempting to create a closed-loop supply chain with like-minded allies, injecting political factors into the industry chain [22][26]. - China's response emphasizes the importance of market principles and cooperation, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing the global rare earth supply chain [23][25]. Group 4: Future Competition - The competition between the U.S. and China in key minerals and AI is expected to continue, with China's rare earth advantages stemming from years of industrial accumulation [26][28]. - The outcome of this geopolitical struggle will depend on the strength and completeness of each country's supply chain rather than the size of their political alliances [28].