2026.02.15 本文字数：2162，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 受所谓"AI恐慌交易"以及1月非农就业后美联储短期维持政策不变的概率上升影响，美国股市本周下 跌。 虽然华尔街迎来了投资者通常会乐见的宏观环境——就业增长稳健、通胀放缓，但由于市场对科技企业 成本与利润率压力的担忧抑制了乐观情绪，股市始终难以获得上行动能。 未来一周，科技股能否企稳，美联储降息预期是否强化或成为市场止跌与否的关键。 美联储降息预期小幅升温 下周投资者需要消化大量经济数据，整体表现喜忧参半。 月度零售销售数据表现疲软，去年12月零售销售环比持平，低于前值0.6%和预期0.4%。控制组（剔除 汽油、汽车、建材等波动项）环比下滑0.1%，预期上升0.4%。受此影响，亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型 对于美国去年第四季度GDP预测从上周的4.2%下修至3.7%。但零售月率此前已连续多个月表现强劲， 单一数据点未必代表趋势转变。 太平洋投资管理公司PIMCO经济学家维尔丁（Tiffany Welding）表示，通胀报告"表面上看相当令人鼓 舞"，主要有两个积极的进展。首先，自疫情以来一直持续上涨的住房价格，现在确实正在 ...

2026.02. 15 本文字数：2162，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 受所谓"AI恐慌交易"以及1月非农就业后美联储短期维持政策不变的概率上升影响，美国股市本周下 跌。 虽然华尔街迎来了投资者通常会乐见的宏观环境——就业增长稳健、通胀放缓，但由于市场对科技企业 成本与利润率压力的担忧抑制了乐观情绪，股市始终难以获得上行动能。 未来一周，科技股能否企稳，美联储降息预期是否强化或成为市场止跌与否的关键。 美联储降息预期小幅升温 下周投资者需要消化大量经济数据，整体表现喜忧参半。 月度零售销售数据表现疲软，去年12月零售销售环比持平，低于前值0.6%和预期0.4%。控制组（剔除 汽油、汽车、建材等波动项）环比下滑0.1%，预期上升0.4%。受此影响，亚特兰大联储GDPNow模 物价指标显示压力有所缓解。消费者价格指数（CPI）1月环比上升0.2%，低于预期的0.3%，同比增 长2.4%，低于预期的2.5%。核心CPI环比增加0.3%，同比增加2.5%，均与预期一致。值得一提的 是，同比涨幅为2021年4月以来最低水平。无独有偶，密歇根大学2月消费调查也显示，1年期通胀预 期从4.0%降至3.5 ...

当前全球市场正处于一个罕见的"高噪音、高流速"时期，其混乱程度令即便是最资深的交易员也感到困惑。高盛对冲基金业务主管 Tony Pasquariello 直言，除了全球金融危机或新冠疫情等重大创伤期外，很难回忆起市场环境如此"极度开放"且难以预测的时刻。 他在最新的报告中发出警告：没人真正知道这一切将如何收场。 市场核心的焦虑源于两种截然相反的AI叙事正在激烈博弈： 一方面，市场认为人工智能带来的颠覆性风险正在延长，这导致了 对"受害者"板块的猛烈抛售；而另一方面，投资者又开始质疑AI资本支出的回报率是否足够理想。 这种内在的张力导致了剧烈的波 动——只要市场感知到边际上的AI风险，抛售便会变得异常猛烈。 目前标普500指数今年以来在7000点关口前止步不前，未能实现突破，指数平静的表面之下暗流涌动。高盛的"AI领跑者与落后者"配 对交易在上周创下了历史上最大的单日涨幅，但这主要是由做空"落后者"所驱动的。这种"先开火再瞄准"的做空情绪，正在软件等核 心板块引发剧烈的叙事波动和风险转移。 市场正陷入"AI颠覆一切"与"AI回报不够"的双重叙事博弈：前者引发对软件等"受害者"的恐慌性抛售（估值腰斩），后者则加剧 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a decline this week due to "AI panic trading" and increased probabilities of the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy unchanged after the January non-farm employment report [1] - Despite a generally favorable macro environment with steady job growth and easing inflation, concerns over cost and profit margin pressures for tech companies have dampened investor optimism [1] - The ability of tech stocks to stabilize and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve will be crucial for market recovery in the coming week [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased, with mixed economic data being digested by investors [2] - Retail sales data showed weakness, with December sales flat month-on-month, below the previous value of 0.6% and the expected 0.4% [2] - The January non-farm payroll report indicated a significant increase of 130,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% [2] Group 3 - Economic signals are mixed, with the January employment report contradicting the narrative of stagnant hiring, while retail sales data challenges the view of strong consumer spending [3] - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds has flattened, with the 2-year yield dropping to its lowest level since 2022, approaching 3.40% [3] - The inflation report appears encouraging, with housing prices slowing and tariff-related impacts diminishing, leading to expectations of two interest rate cuts later this year [3] Group 4 - The recent decline in retail sales is viewed as a temporary pause following strong spending, with tax refunds and robust wage growth expected to support consumption recovery in the coming months [4] - The significant increase in non-farm employment is concentrated, raising questions about its sustainability due to demographic constraints and weakening labor demand in other sectors [4] Group 5 - The US stock indices fell over the past week, with investors continuing to reduce exposure to tech stocks, leading to a decline in the S&P 500 index [5] - Concerns regarding the impact of new AI tools on specific industries have caused market volatility, initially affecting software and financial stocks, and later spreading to real estate and logistics companies [5] Group 6 - The financial sector experienced the largest decline this week, down 4.8%, followed by communication services down 3.5%, while utilities saw a significant increase of 7.1% due to safe-haven inflows [6] - Other sectors such as real estate and materials also recorded gains of over 3%, while energy, consumer staples, and industrial sectors showed positive performance [6] Group 7 - The introduction of AI tools by companies like Altruist has raised concerns about job displacement, leading to a cautious sentiment among traders [7] - The market's reaction to AI-related news has resulted in a "sell first, ask questions later" approach, with fears of AI disruption affecting various sectors beyond just software [7] Group 8 - The outlook for the next week suggests that a significant decline in Treasury yields could typically act as a bullish catalyst for the stock market, but bearish signals in the tech sector indicate potential further downside risks [8] - The volatility index (VIX) remains around 20, indicating that the market is seeking protective measures and may maintain higher-than-average volatility in the short term [8]

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a decline this week due to "AI panic trading" and increased probabilities of the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy unchanged after the January non-farm employment report [1] - Concerns over cost and profit margin pressures for technology companies have suppressed optimism, despite a generally favorable macroeconomic environment characterized by steady job growth and easing inflation [1] - The ability of technology stocks to stabilize and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve will be critical for market recovery in the coming week [1] Group 2 - The retail sales data showed weakness, with December retail sales unchanged month-on-month, below the previous value of 0.6% and the expected 0.4% [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its forecast for Q4 GDP from 4.2% to 3.7% due to the retail sales performance [2] - The January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly above the market expectation of 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% from 4.4% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase was 2.4%, also below the expected 2.5% [2] Group 3 - Economic signals are mixed, with the January employment report contradicting the narrative of stagnant hiring, while retail sales data challenges the view of strong consumer spending [3] - The flattening of the US Treasury yield curve indicates a significant drop in long-term yields, with the 2-year yield approaching 3.40%, and the probability of two rate cuts this year nearing 90% [3] - The inflation report shows encouraging signs, particularly with housing prices slowing and tariff-related impacts diminishing, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts later this year [3] Group 4 - The recent signals are unlikely to persist, as the decline in retail sales may be a temporary pause following strong spending, and the sustainability of the significant increase in non-farm employment is questionable [4] - The cooling inflation data provides a favorable environment for the Federal Reserve to potentially restart rate cuts later in the year [4] Group 5 - The US stock indices fell over the past week, with investors continuing to reduce exposure to technology sectors, and the S&P 500 index turned negative for the year [5] - Concerns regarding the impact of new AI tools on specific industries have led to market volatility, initially affecting software and financial stocks, and later spreading to real estate and logistics sectors [5] Group 6 - The financial sector experienced the largest decline this week, down 4.8%, followed by communication services down 3.5%, and both non-essential consumer goods and technology sectors fell over 2% [6] - Utility stocks surged by 7.1% due to safe-haven inflows, while real estate and materials rose over 3% [6] Group 7 - The launch of AI tools by companies like Altruist and Anthropic has heightened fears of job displacement, leading to a cautious sentiment among traders regarding US stock exposure [7] - The sell-off pressure in the market is primarily driven by concerns over the disruptive effects of AI, affecting not only software stocks but also real estate and logistics [7] Group 8 - The significant decline in US Treasury yields typically serves as a bullish catalyst for the stock market, but bearish confirmation signals in the Nasdaq indicate potential further downside risks [8] - The volatility index (VIX) remains around 20, suggesting that the market is seeking protective measures and may maintain higher-than-average volatility in the short term [8]

Group 1 - The current global market is experiencing a rare "high noise, high velocity" period, making it difficult for even seasoned traders to navigate. Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business head, Tony Pasquariello, noted that this level of unpredictability is reminiscent of major trauma periods like the global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The core anxiety in the market stems from two opposing narratives regarding AI: one that sees AI as a disruptive risk leading to sell-offs in "victim" sectors, and another that questions the return on investment from AI capital expenditures. This tension is causing significant volatility, with aggressive sell-offs occurring whenever marginal AI risks are perceived [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has stalled around the 7000-point mark this year, failing to break through, while beneath the surface, there are turbulent undercurrents. Goldman Sachs' "AI leaders vs. laggards" pair trade recently achieved its largest single-day gain, primarily driven by shorting "laggards" [1][4] Group 2 - Global capital allocation is subtly shifting due to crowded U.S. markets and valuation pressures, with incremental funds increasingly flowing overseas. The South Korean and Japanese stock markets have recently shown strong performance, particularly the KOSPI index, which has doubled since the end of 2024 and achieved its best weekly performance in five years [3][8] - The current market environment is filled with contradictory signals, making investment challenging. There is a rare phenomenon of simultaneous buying in both cyclical assets (like industrial stocks and raw materials) and defensive assets (like consumer staples and utilities) [4] - The debate surrounding AI's fundamental impact is intensifying, focusing on who the beneficiaries and victims are, and whether AI leads to value creation or destruction. This debate has resulted in increased volatility for related stocks and thematic baskets, particularly in the software sector [6] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has seen a stagnation in the wake of non-farm payroll and CPI data releases, while overseas markets have experienced a surge. According to Goldman Sachs strategist Ryan Hammond, non-U.S. equity funds have seen an inflow of $89 billion this year, compared to only $16 billion for U.S. equity funds [8] - The South Korean stock market is leading this trend, with the MSCI Korea index rising 28% year-to-date in U.S. dollar terms. Goldman Sachs' chief equity strategist for Asia Pacific, Tim Moe, maintains an overweight rating and has raised the KOSPI index target to 6400 points, citing impressive earnings growth and attractive valuations [10] - The Japanese market has also performed well, with the Nikkei index recently rising by 5%. Notably, the correlation between the Japanese stock market and the currency has seemingly reversed, indicating a shift from "currency depreciation trades" to healthier "reflation trades" [12] Group 4 - Despite the uncertain macro environment, hedge funds have shown remarkable resilience. Tony Pasquariello observed that macro discretionary funds accumulated significant profit buffers in January, while long-short equity strategies have generally avoided risks [14] - Looking ahead, market trends appear to favor active management over passive investment, and liquidity is becoming more favorable for liquid assets rather than illiquid ones. Strategies that can adapt to narrative changes in this noisy and fast-paced market seem to be gaining an advantage [14]

Group 1 - In early 2026, Wall Street investors' risk appetite reached a high, with cash holdings at a historical low and a significant reduction in hedging positions [2] - The acceleration of AI technology applications has shifted market logic, leading to concerns about the replacement of light asset and white-collar industries such as software, wealth management, brokerage, and tax consulting [2] - The S&P 500 index experienced increased volatility, dropping to its lowest level since November of the previous year, with a rebound driven by moderate inflation data [2] Group 2 - A survey by Bank of America in January revealed that investor cash positions fell to a historical low of 3.2%, with nearly half of fund managers lacking downside protection, the lowest level since 2018 [2] - The correlation among various asset classes has increased, raising the risk of market-wide adjustments triggered by the sell-off of single assets [3] - Investment-grade bond ETFs performed strongly due to safe-haven demand, while U.S. Treasury prices rose, marking the largest weekly gain for long-term Treasury ETFs since April of the previous year [3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a notification regarding Manycore Tech Inc.'s overseas issuance and listing, allowing the company to issue up to 312,432,000 shares for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Manycore Tech Inc. submitted its initial listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in February 2025 and updated its prospectus in August of the same year, with JPMorgan and CCB International acting as joint sponsors [3] - Manycore is recognized as one of the "Hangzhou Six Little Dragons" and is a leading provider of cloud-native spatial design software, with applications across various business scenarios including residential, office, retail, and commercial projects [3] Group 2 - The company's software leverages artificial intelligence (AI) technology and dedicated graphics processing unit (GPU) clusters, enabling designers and businesses to create engaging designs with real-time and immersive visual effects [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has launched a new "anti-AI impact" thematic investment portfolio, betting on companies less likely to be affected by AI disruptions [1] - The portfolio includes a long position in companies that require physical execution, are heavily regulated, or must be accountable by humans, which are difficult to replace with AI [1] - On the short side, the strategy targets companies with workflows that could be gradually automated by AI, such as Duolingo and Semrush [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs is optimistic about AI infrastructure-related companies, covering areas like computing power, cloud services, data facilities, development tools, and cybersecurity, with Oracle and Microsoft as representative firms [1]

Company Performance - The company reported a mid-year revenue of 483 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, with a net profit of 33.51 million yuan indicating a turnaround [4] - AI-driven cloud subscription revenue accounts for 71% of total revenue, suggesting a sustainable profit model [4] - Current valuation metrics show a price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of 27.94 times and a price-to-book ratio of 2.30 times, indicating a debate on whether the valuation aligns with growth [4] Stock Price Movement - On February 13, the stock price closed at 7.24 HKD, down 3.21% from the previous day, with a trading volume of only 32,400 shares and a turnover rate of 0.02% [1] - The stock has shown high historical volatility, with a price range fluctuation of 109.42% from April to September 2025, including a single-day increase of 23.38% on September 24, 2025 [5] Market and Sector Context - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.72% on the same day, while the application software sector rose by 1.61%, indicating that the individual stock performance was significantly weaker than the sector [2] - The IT services II sector declined by 0.76% and the domestic software sector fell by 0.44%, reflecting a general downturn in technology stock sentiment [2] - Market liquidity was reduced due to the suspension of Hong Kong Stock Connect services during the Spring Festival, exacerbating volatility in small-cap stocks [2][3] Capital Flow - On February 13, there was no net inflow of major funds into the stock, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 46,200 HKD and an average transaction price of 7.313 HKD [3] - The stock has not been covered by investment banks in the past 90 days, leading to low market attention and a predominance of retail-driven capital flow, which can lead to price fluctuations due to limited trading [3]