Core Viewpoint - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, with a robust order backlog and expected growth in delivery volumes, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Order Backlog and Delivery Expectations - As of the end of Q1 2025, global shipyards have a total order backlog of 381 million deadweight tons (DWT) / 162 million compensated gross tons (CGT), representing a 2% / 1% increase from the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The expected global ship delivery volume for 2025 is 97.28 million DWT / 44.63 million CGT, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% for both metrics [1][3]. - The order coverage ratio for global shipyards is projected to reach 3.8 years in 2024, marking a historical high, while the proportion of order capacity held is at a relatively low level of 12% [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Profitability - The shipbuilding sector is anticipated to achieve revenues of 210.3 billion yuan in 2024, a 12% year-on-year increase, driven by high industry demand and order fulfillment [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 7.2 billion yuan, representing a substantial 103% increase year-on-year, supported by an improved delivery structure with a higher proportion of high-priced, low-cost orders [2]. - The ship price index remains elevated, with a slight decline of 1% to 187 at the end of Q1 2025, indicating stable pricing across various ship types [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global new ship market saw a significant decline in new orders in Q1 2025, with a total of 19.8 million DWT / 8.95 million CGT, down 56% / 46% year-on-year, attributed to pre-emptive demand and market uncertainties [4]. - Despite the drop in new orders, the long delivery times (18-24 months) suggest that shipyards will still fulfill existing orders, potentially leading to a recovery in new ship demand starting in 2026 [4]. - The average age of the global fleet reached 13.1 years as of Q1 2025, with an expected increase in aging vessels driving replacement demand over the next decade [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends investing in China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and paying attention to key players like China Power (600482.SH) and Songfa Co., Ltd. (603268.SH) for their quality shipbuilding assets [7].

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that increasing corn imports from the U.S. is one of the options in trade negotiations, but Japan will not sacrifice its agriculture for reduced auto tariffs [1][3] - Japan has had two rounds of trade talks with the U.S., with little progress on seeking exemptions from U.S. tariffs, particularly the 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles, which has severely impacted the Japanese auto industry [1][6] - The U.S. exported $2.8 billion worth of corn to Japan in 2024 to compensate for an 80% drop in exports to China [5] Group 2 - Japan's Chief Trade Negotiator Ryosei Akazawa insisted on the complete removal of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, emphasizing that without the elimination of the 25% auto import tariff, any agreement with the U.S. would be meaningless [5][6] - Mazda reported a 45.1% drop in net profit for the fiscal year ending in March, highlighting the significant impact of tariffs on the Japanese auto industry [6] - Japan may propose technical cooperation with the U.S. in the shipbuilding sector, indicating a potential diversification in trade discussions [6]

贸易谈判的"破冰"时刻：追踪框架和资产展望 20250511 摘要 • 美国贸易政策调整：维持对英 10%关税底线，预计每年为美国带来 60 亿 美元收入，为减税方案提供补充，但可能加剧与其他经济体的贸易摩擦。 • 全球贸易谈判挑战：主要经济体在与美国谈判时面临平衡自身利益与满足 美国要求的难题，如日本在农产品进口方面态度坚决，欧盟则采取反制措 施。 • 美国贸易政策的博弈影响：美国贸易政策不仅影响双边关系，还引发非美 经济体之间的博弈，例如中欧若坚持立场，可能迫使美国妥协，反之中国 先达成协议可能对欧洲施压。 • 美日欧贸易协议前景：若美国与欧盟和日本达成协议，将对中国不利，可 能形成围堵联盟；若未能达成，则美国对外政策受挫，或转向国内政策， 如减税和降息。 • 中国关税谈判策略：中美关税谈判涉及 145 项关税，可分三部分处理，相 对容易取消的是 20%加征和部分 91%报复性加征，而 34%的对等关税涉 及复杂诉求，需高层定调。 Q&A 当前中美贸易谈判的进展情况及其影响如何？ 目前中美在瑞士的贸易谈判进展较为缓慢，市场对此次谈判结果并不抱太大希 望。尽管如此，我们仍需从长计议，关注未来的发展。美国与英 ...

日本正在讨论的方案是，作为对美国企业的技术支持和协助建造新船的交换、寻求美方调整加征关 税。除了强调将促进美国国内产业复兴的同时，日本认为，如果能协助美国建造军舰，还可作为安保方 面的贡献加以宣传…… 在与特朗普政府的关税谈判中，日本政府正在为打"造船牌"做准备。日本正在讨论的方案是， 作为对美国企业的技术支持和协助建造新船的交换、寻求美方调整加征关税。这是在强调将 促进美国国内产业复兴的同时，宣传日本在安全保障方面贡献的战略。 美国无法与视为竞争对手的中国展开合作。因此全球市场份额排名第二和第三的同盟国韩国 和日本将成为合作对象。特朗普自2024年再次当选美国总统以来，一直表示期待韩国在造船 业方面提供支持。 日本的造船业占世界市场份额的近2成，在品质和技术方面受到好评。在节能和省人化等特殊 性能方面具有优势。 作为国家战略，日本正在推进液化天然气(LNG)与氢能驱动的应对绿色转型（GX）的新燃料 船的开发、以及设计与建造的数字化。如果能与美国合作建造船只，也有望促进日本的增长 战略。 日本的造船技术也受到美国以外国家的关注。在澳大利亚引进的新型护卫舰的最终评选中， 日本的"最上级（MOGAMI）"护卫舰被 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Shipping Industry - The first batch of ships carrying goods subject to a 145% tariff is arriving in the U.S., indicating a significant impact on the shipping industry [1] - The Port of Los Angeles, which relies heavily on trade with China, has seen a 35% decrease in business volume compared to the same period last year, affecting truck drivers and dock workers [1][2] - The decline in imports is expected to lead to product shortages and rising prices, exacerbating inflation in the U.S. economy [1][2] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The shipping slowdown is anticipated to affect the broader economy, leading to empty store shelves and a halt in hiring and investment [2] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) has risen from 257.97 in January 2020 to 308.41 by December 2024, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [2] Group 3: Customs Warehousing Trends - Customs warehouses near ports are experiencing increased activity as U.S. importers store goods there to potentially avoid high tariffs in the short term [3] - These warehouses, typically used for transshipment or duty-free stores, are now being utilized to navigate the uncertainties of U.S. trade policies [3] Group 4: Shipbuilding Industry Developments - The U.S. is attempting to revitalize its nearly non-existent shipbuilding industry, with Hanwha Marine acquiring the Philly Shipyard for $100 million [4] - Hanwha plans to build LNG carriers in the U.S., marking the first such construction in American shipyards since the 1970s [5] Group 5: Challenges in LNG Shipbuilding - Building LNG carriers is considered one of the most complex and technically demanding projects in shipbuilding, requiring significant investment and long-term industry experience [6] - The U.S. currently lacks any compliant LNG carriers, and the construction of such vessels is projected to take decades and substantial capital [6] - The cost of building LNG ships in the U.S. is significantly higher than in countries like South Korea or China, posing profitability challenges for projects [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Navy is willing to deepen collaboration with South Korean shipbuilding companies in the areas of warship construction and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Navy Secretary, John Ferlaine, emphasized the importance of South Korean companies contributing to the revitalization of the U.S. shipbuilding industry [1]

Group 1 - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries announced a contract for the construction of two Suezmax oil tankers with a total value of 251.1 billion KRW (approximately 180 million USD) [2] - The unit price for each tanker is approximately 90 million USD, which has increased by 2 million USD compared to a previous contract due to the appreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar [2] - The company has secured a total of 53 new ship orders worth 6.49 billion USD (approximately 47.2 billion RMB) this year, achieving about 36% of its annual order target of 18.05 billion USD (approximately 132 billion RMB) [3] Group 2 - The global oil tanker market is expected to strengthen by 2025, with a projected 2.7% increase in global seaborne oil trade volume [3] - The demand for oil tanker capacity is anticipated to grow by 3.2% due to factors such as increased oil exports from the Atlantic region to Asia and ongoing shipping reroutes caused by geopolitical events [3] - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries has extensive experience in building oil tankers, with its Suezmax tankers recognized as "world-class products" in South Korea since 2007 [3]

新提交审议的《美国造船法案》，计划对在中国造船的船公司征收"惩罚性税费"。 日前，美国参议员Mark Kelly联合多位共同提案人，在美国参议院重新提出《美国造船法案》（SHIPS for America Act）。 据了解，该法案最初于2024年12月提出并获得广泛支持，现拆分为两项提案，由于美国新一届国会于2025年1月就任，法案需重新提交审议。 据了解，新法案还旨在通过以下措施，壮大美国商船船队，具体包括：统筹制定国家层面的海事政策；削减繁文缛节，提升美国旗船舶的国际竞争力；重 建美国造船工业基础；扩大并加强海员与船厂的工人招募、培训及留任机制等。 同时，新法案收紧了多项货物优先规则。包括要求在15年内，从中国进口至美国货物总量的10%，必须由美国旗船舶运输；美国海运原油出口总量的 10%，必须由在美国建造的船舶运输。 相关人士预计，新法案将提交至参众两院的多个委员会审议修订并批准。 美国参议员Mark Kelly等就重新提出《美国造船法案》召开新闻发布会 最引人关注的是，新法案中提到，将对由"受关注国家"拥有或运营的船舶、在"受关注国家"注册的船舶，以及在"受关注国家的国有船厂"造船的船公司， 征收" ...

【文/观察者网专栏作者 苏奎】 近日，特朗普政府贸易代表办公室公布了针对中国船舶征收惩罚性费用的最终方案，尽管相比2月份拟议的方案已经明显放宽，但这仍然是国际贸易史上保 护主义的新高点，其政策之荒腔走板、横蛮无理，可以说是史无前例。 特别是此前对任何拥有或者预定了中国制造船舶的经营人，每次靠港最高可达150万美元收费提议，可以说是骇人听闻，也让世界再次见证了美国政客们的 丑恶嘴脸。 目前媒体和各方评论多聚焦于方案的影响和可能的发展方向，需要注意的是，方案的法律基础却是1月16日拜登政府贸易代表办公室公布的所谓301调查报 告。如果我们分析这份时间跨度了两届美国政府的调查报告以及引发调查的美国钢铁工会等的调查请愿书，更能看出美国两党政客们的绝望与仇恨，码头停 靠收费只是一次拙劣的栽赃陷害，这样没有道德底线的打击根本没有奏效的可能。 荒唐的指控 请愿书先是哀叹美国造船业辉煌不再，已经是虚有其表。二战后直到1975年，美国曾拥有全世界最大的造船能力，而仅仅过去了50年，美国商业船坞减少了 70%，失去了数万工作岗位，目前美国的年商业造船量相比世界新增总吨位已经是微不足道了（0.1%）。 请愿书还列举了一些数字，比较 ...

Group 1 - Trump's economic strategy is contradictory, as his tariff policies may lead to inflation while simultaneously risking deflation due to potential impacts on exports [2][3] - The U.S. is unlikely to develop a competitive shipbuilding industry within seven years, as it lacks the capacity to build advanced vessels needed for modern shipping [3] - The U.S. surpassed Australia in 2023 to become the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with plans to double exports by the end of the decade [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. energy sector warns that new regulations could undermine its ability to lead the global LNG market, as there is currently insufficient capacity to build necessary LNG transport vessels [3][5] - China remains a dominant player in the shipbuilding industry, accounting for a significant share of global orders across various vessel types, including 83% of container ships [7] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipbuilders is uncertain, and large-scale withdrawal from the Chinese shipbuilding sector is unlikely in the near term [7]