基础化工/农化制品 云图控股（002539.SZ） 2025 年 08 月 28 日 磷复肥景气推动业绩增长，合成氨、磷矿石等新产能 落地或助力公司成长 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/27 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 11.10 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 11.60/6.77 | | 总市值(亿元) | 134.06 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 97.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.08 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 140.13 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 云图控股 沪深300 相关研究报告 《复合肥龙头完善上游合成氨、磷矿 石等原料布局，广西贵港项目打开未 来成长空间—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.7.10 ——公司信息更新报告 金益腾（分析师） 宋梓荣（分析师） 张晓锋（分析师） jinyiteng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020002 songziron ...

Market Performance - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 0.92% on August 28, with Hong Sifang leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3843.6, up 1.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12571.37, up 2.25% [1] Stock Performance - Hong Sifang (603395) closed at 39.16, with a rise of 10.00% and a trading volume of 206,000 shares, amounting to 788 million yuan [1] - Baiao Chemical (603360) saw a closing price of 25.45, up 7.38%, with a trading volume of 347,000 shares, totaling 862 million yuan [1] - Guoguang Co. (002749) closed at 16.15, increasing by 6.18%, with a trading volume of 98,800 shares, amounting to 15.6 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Runfeng Co. (301035) at 77.62 (+6.04%), Hongda Co. (600331) at 11.03 (+4.85%), and Lianhua Technology (002250) at 12.13 (+4.12%) [1] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a net outflow of 668 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 606 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Hong Sifang (603395) had a net inflow of 1.64 billion yuan from institutional investors, but saw outflows from both speculative and retail investors [3] - Baiao Chemical (603360) recorded a net inflow of 73.62 million yuan from institutional investors, while experiencing outflows from speculative and retail investors [3] - Other stocks like Xin'an Co. (600596) and Yuntianhua (600096) also showed varied capital flows, indicating differing investor sentiments across the sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company, Xin'an Chemical, is positioned as a dual leader in glyphosate and organosilicon, with expectations for performance improvement under the backdrop of national policies emphasizing anti-involution [5][8]. - The company has a comprehensive business model that integrates crop protection, silicon-based new materials, and new energy materials, leveraging its unique "chlorosilicon-phosphorus" circular economy model [12][5]. - The glyphosate market is expected to see a turning point due to demand recovery and supply disruptions, with the company benefiting from its global market presence and production capacity [5][18]. - The organosilicon sector is anticipated to undergo structural changes in demand, with the company poised to benefit from the end of the expansion cycle and a shift towards high-end applications [5][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Xin'an Chemical was established in 1965 and has developed a strong presence in the agricultural chemicals and organosilicon sectors, with a focus on a full-chain integration model in crop protection [12][5]. - The company has a complete industrial chain from upstream silicon mining to downstream product manufacturing, with applications in various industries including electronics and transportation [12][5]. 2. Glyphosate and Organosilicon Market Dynamics - Glyphosate is the world's leading herbicide, with a significant market share, and the company has a production capacity of 80,000 tons per year [5][18]. - The demand for glyphosate is expected to increase due to the growing adoption of genetically modified crops, particularly in China, which is projected to enhance market demand significantly [20][22]. - The organosilicon market is experiencing a shift in demand structure, with the company focusing on high-end applications and innovations in terminal products [5][36]. 3. Financial Projections - The company is projected to see substantial growth in net profit from 388 million yuan in 2025 to 957 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 653.9% and 36.7% respectively [8][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability potential [8][7]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The glyphosate industry is characterized by high concentration, with the company holding a 10% market share in China, benefiting from a favorable supply-side environment [23][26]. - The organosilicon industry is seeing a consolidation of production capacity among leading firms, with the company positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its cost advantages and integrated operations [40][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][6][27]. Core Views - The company benefits from the upward trend in the potassium fertilizer industry, with both volume and price expected to rise in the first half of 2025, leading to a projected 217% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][8]. - The company is actively expanding its potassium fertilizer production capacity, aiming to expedite the commissioning of new projects [3][26]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.52 billion yuan (up 48.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 850 million yuan (up 216.6% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The production of potassium chloride reached 1.0141 million tons (up 20.0% year-on-year), with sales of 1.0454 million tons (up 21.4% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The average ex-tax price for potassium chloride was 2,353 yuan/ton (up 22.1% year-on-year), with a production cost of approximately 1,025 yuan/ton (up 2.1% year-on-year) [1][8]. - The gross margin was 57.5% (up 8.4 percentage points year-on-year), and the net margin was 33.8% (up 18.8 percentage points year-on-year) [1][8]. Quarterly Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit of 470 million yuan (up 149.2% year-on-year, up 22.4% quarter-on-quarter) [2][18]. - Revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.31 billion yuan (up 23.0% year-on-year, up 8.0% quarter-on-quarter) [2][18]. - The average ex-tax price for potassium chloride in Q2 was 2,451 yuan/ton (up 32.0% year-on-year, up 8.6% quarter-on-quarter) [2][18]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company holds potassium salt mining rights over 263.3 square kilometers in Laos, with a total reserve of approximately 1 billion tons of pure potassium chloride resources [3][26]. - The company is accelerating the construction of its second and third 1 million tons/year potassium fertilizer projects, which are in the later stages of mining construction [3][26].

Core Viewpoint - Hualu Hengsheng's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a 26.42% increase, despite a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hualu Hengsheng reported revenue of 15.764 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.569 billion yuan, down 29.47% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 8.435 billion yuan, with 4.246 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of August 28, Hualu Hengsheng's stock price reached 26.94 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 57.2 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a 9.16% increase over the last five trading days and a 28.71% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The company had a net outflow of 4.9563 million yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 15.20% to 52,700, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 18.12% to 40,209 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several ETFs, with notable changes in their holdings [3].

Group 1 - Youyou Food achieved a net profit of 108 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.47%, with a revenue of 771 million yuan, up 45.59% [1] - Keda achieved a net profit of 255 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.49%, with a revenue of 2.163 billion yuan, up 14.35% [1] - North Navigation turned a profit with a net profit of 116 million yuan, achieving a revenue of 1.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 481.19% [1][2] Group 2 - China Satellite Communication reported a net profit of 181 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.59%, with a revenue of 1.221 billion yuan, up 6.33% [3] - Huqin Technology achieved a net profit of 1.889 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, with a revenue of 83.939 billion yuan, up 113.06% [4] - Huasen Lithium reported a net loss of 72.739 million yuan, with a revenue of 350 million yuan, up 72.02% [4] Group 3 - Putailai achieved a net profit of 1.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.03%, with a revenue of 7.088 billion yuan, up 11.95% [5] - Suochen Technology reported a net loss of 45.698 million yuan, with a revenue of 57.351 million yuan, up 10.82% [5] - Canqin Technology achieved a net profit of 51.912 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.94%, with a revenue of 287 million yuan, up 52.76% [6] Group 4 - Hengtong achieved a net profit of 99.3648 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.86%, with a revenue of 669 million yuan, down 44.66% [6] - Sanan Optoelectronics reported a net profit of 176 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.24%, with a revenue of 8.987 billion yuan, up 17.03% [7] - New Dairy achieved a net profit of 397 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.76%, with a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, up 3.01% [8] Group 5 - Yiling Pharmaceutical achieved a net profit of 669 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.03%, with a revenue of 4.040 billion yuan, down 12.26% [10] - Baosteel achieved a net profit of 4.879 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.36%, with a revenue of 151.372 billion yuan, down 7.28% [12] - Feikai Materials achieved a net profit of 217 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.45%, with a revenue of 1.462 billion yuan, up 3.8% [13] Group 6 - Lier Chemical achieved a net profit of 271 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 191.21%, with a revenue of 4.507 billion yuan, up 35.36% [15] - Shaanxi Coal achieved a net profit of 7.638 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.18%, with a revenue of 779.83 billion yuan, down 14.19% [16] - Dongfang Materials reported a net profit of 654,400 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.48%, with a revenue of 174 million yuan, down 5.06% [18] Group 7 - Blue Sky Bio achieved a net profit of 26.7163 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98%, with a revenue of 652 million yuan, up 7.05% [19] - Shanghai Jiubai achieved a net profit of 23.7897 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.24%, with a revenue of 45.0535 million yuan, down 1.09% [20] - Two Sides Needle reported a net loss of 5.0842 million yuan, with a revenue of 522 million yuan, up 1.02% [21] Group 8 - Shanghai Yashi achieved a net profit of 20.3263 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.56%, with a revenue of 2.044 billion yuan, up 56.75% [23] - Bayi Steel reported a net loss of 697 million yuan, with a revenue of 8.733 billion yuan, down 6.73% [25] - Hongrun Construction plans to repurchase shares worth between 150 million and 300 million yuan [27] Group 9 - Kaile achieved a net profit of 10.9193 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280.42%, with a revenue of 137 million yuan, down 17.89% [28] - Jingda achieved a net profit of 306 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.03%, with a revenue of 11.856 billion yuan, up 14.28% [29] - Blue Light Marker reported a net profit of 96.4427 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.33%, with a revenue of 32.36 billion yuan, up 4.87% [30] Group 10 - KOTAI Power achieved a net profit of 23.994 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.52%, with a revenue of 711 million yuan, up 49.51% [33] - Bo Rui Data reported a net loss of 26.1918 million yuan, with a revenue of 70.1997 million yuan, up 5.19% [34] - Jiuzhoutong achieved a net profit of 1.446 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with a revenue of 81.106 billion yuan, up 5.10% [37] Group 11 - Aier Eye Hospital achieved a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%, with a revenue of 11.507 billion yuan, up 9.12% [39] - Nandu Property achieved a net profit of 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 532.87%, with a revenue of 914 million yuan, up 2.75% [41] - Weiyuan reported a net loss of 168 million yuan, with a revenue of 4.601 billion yuan, up 1.82% [42] Group 12 - Zhongke Chuangda achieved a net profit of 158 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.84%, with a revenue of 3.299 billion yuan, up 37.44% [43] - Zhongjuxin reported a net profit of 8.1377 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.57%, with a revenue of 567 million yuan, up 20.40% [44] - Inspur Information achieved a net profit of 799 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.87%, with a revenue of 80.192 billion yuan, up 90.05% [45] Group 13 - Shenghong Technology achieved a net profit of 2.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 366.89%, with a revenue of 9.031 billion yuan, up 86.00% [46] - Cambrian achieved a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, turning a profit, with a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan, up 4347.82% [48] - Longteng Optoelectronics reported a net loss of 121 million yuan, with a revenue of 1.289 billion yuan, down 27.91% [49]

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 2.26% on August 27, with Limin Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3800.35, down 1.76%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12295.07, down 1.43% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Lianhua Technology (002250) saw a significant increase of 10.01%, closing at 11.65 with a trading volume of 501,600 shares and a turnover of 583 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Baiao Chemical (603360) with a 2.33% increase and Yangnong Chemical (600486) with a 1.25% increase [1] - Limin Co. (002734) led the declines with a drop of 5.56%, closing at 20.05 with a trading volume of 434,100 shares and a turnover of 897 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 1.216 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 760 million yuan [2] - The sector's overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors increased their positions [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Lianhua Technology had a net inflow of 26.5 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors showed a net outflow of 11.9 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like Shidanli (002588) and Tian Tian Co. (002999) also experienced varied capital flows, indicating differing investor sentiments across the sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a peak period for the disclosure of mid-year performance reports, with all reports expected to be completed by August 29. The market's focus on performance has significantly increased recently [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Overview - As of August 26, 3,233 listed companies have disclosed their mid-year performance reports, achieving a disclosure rate of 60.85% [2]. - The net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 for all A-shares, non-financial A-shares, and the main board are 9.85%, 6.74%, and 9.23% respectively, indicating sustained economic vitality in the second quarter [7][11]. - The second quarter performance growth is primarily concentrated in cyclical industries, brokerage firms, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and power equipment [10][12]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The industries with high growth in Q2 include cyclical sectors (steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials), brokerage firms, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and power equipment [10][12]. - Other sectors showing performance potential include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), consumer goods, and manufacturing [11][12]. - The current low-priced high-performing sectors are mainly in consumer goods, as well as certain cyclical and manufacturing sectors, including agriculture, new consumption (beverages, personal care products), and medical services [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance in the agricultural chemicals sector [5][7]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading enterprise in the agricultural chemicals industry, with expectations for growth as the industry cycle is anticipated to reverse [5][6]. - The global agricultural market is projected to recover gradually, with China's pesticide production ranking among the top in the world, indicating a robust market environment for the company [6][27]. - The company has a strong foundation in research and development, with a comprehensive business model that integrates production, sales, and technical services, positioning it well for future growth [6][43]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 25, 2025, the company's closing price is 4.48 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 5,491.58 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 5,868 million yuan, 2024: 5,830 million yuan, 2025E: 6,170 million yuan, 2026E: 6,828 million yuan, and 2027E: 7,706 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.83% in 2025 [5][7]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 42 million yuan, with a significant recovery anticipated in subsequent years [5][7]. Industry Overview - The global agricultural market is valued at over 70 billion USD, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.3% from 2017 to 2023, reaching 748 billion USD in 2023 [6][16]. - China is the world's largest pesticide exporter, with an export value of 8.1 billion USD in 2023, significantly surpassing the United States and India [27][29]. Company Positioning - The company ranks among the top ten pesticide sales in China over the past decade and has a strong patent portfolio with 391 patents, including 216 invention patents [6][52]. - The company has established a solid market presence both domestically and internationally, with a balanced revenue distribution between domestic and foreign markets [46][59]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the agricultural chemicals industry, with a focus on expanding its market share and enhancing its product offerings [9][27]. - The company has a strategic advantage in its research and development capabilities, which are crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the agricultural chemicals sector [58].

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector increased by 2.34% on August 26, with Bai'ao Chemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3868.38, down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12473.17, up 0.26% [1] - Bai'ao Chemical's stock price rose by 10.02% to 23.16, with a trading volume of 321,000 shares and a transaction value of 718 million [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a net outflow of 78.12 million from main funds, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 91.58 million [2] - The main funds net inflow for Bai'ao Chemical was 15.4 million, accounting for 21.41% of its trading volume [3] - Cloud Map Holdings had a main funds net inflow of 5.2 million, representing 4.58% of its trading volume [3]