gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月01日 (原油) 周日OPEC+8个主要产油国决定，维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年Q1暂停增产。委内瑞拉抗议 美方企图以武力控制其石油。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在波斯湾水域扣押了一艘载走私燃料的外籍油 轮。短期消息面对油价有所提振，外盘油价周一盘初走高1%。中长期基本面库存宽松压力仍存，油 价反弹空间及持续性或有限。 (责金属) 周五市场并未有显著的利多消息,但国际银价大涨超过6%带动贵金属整体强势,体现其在美联储降 息预期增强背景下金融属性和现货偏紧的双重支撑及高波动特点。 铂肥上市伊始国内投资者对铂的 青睐度更高，相对走势上铂强于叙,倾向多铂空肥。本周继续关注俄乌和平谈判进展。 【铜】 上周五伦铜再创高，沪铜盘中增仓跟涨，短线贵金属提供溢价情绪，中长线市场持续看涨来年铜均 价上涨，流动性、绿碳与智算相结合的需求以及矿端低加工费博弈向冶炼环节传导，且美伦价差可 能继续吸引去美库存,共同支撑涨势。短线多单持有,关注资金变动。 (铝) 周五贵金属和铜太幅上行,沪铝跟涨。近期铝锭有所去库,总体李节性表现偏中性,现货维持贴 水， ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月30日 [从企业年末的库存行为，预计 Table_NewTitle] 2026年下 半年周期弹性较大 ——资产配置周报（2025/11/24-2025/11/28） [table_main] 投资要点 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。11月28日当周，全球股市上涨，科技风格反弹明显；主要商品期货中 黄金、铜、原油、铝均收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币普遍升值。1） ...

Core Insights - The management area of Shengli Oilfield's Luming Company has achieved significant improvements in oil production through various strategies such as "water well suspension + flow line adjustment" and "water well suspension + pressure injection" [1][2] - The total number of water wells opened in the management area has reached 138, resulting in a daily production increase of 21 tons compared to before the suspension [1] - The management area has implemented integrated management strategies to address issues such as uneven well spacing and declining water drive effectiveness, leading to enhanced oil recovery [1][2] Group 1 - The management area has successfully increased the number of operational water wells from 1 to 5, with daily oil production rising from 12.3 tons to 18.6 tons in the Qu 104-Oblique 611 unit [1] - A total of 13 instances of "water well suspension + pressure injection" have been implemented, resulting in an accumulated oil increase of approximately 1,800 tons [1] - The management area has reduced the number of suspended wells by 4 instances per month compared to the same period last year, improving reservoir management [2] Group 2 - The primary reasons for water well suspension have been identified as sand production and scale blockage, prompting the development of targeted management strategies [2] - High-quality dual single-flow valves have been installed in 30 wells prone to sand production to prevent formation sand return [2] - The management area has enhanced its anti-scaling efforts and improved well operation rates through comprehensive analysis and targeted interventions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the implementation of a labor competition focused on enhancing the performance of new wells at Shengli Oilfield, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and detailed planning to achieve operational goals [2] Group 1: Competition and Goals - The Shengli Oilfield has launched a labor competition for the fourth quarter aimed at improving the quality, speed, efficiency, and production of new wells [2] - Clear competition plans and goals have been established, along with a reward and punishment scheme to ensure accountability at all levels [2] Group 2: Coordination and Planning - The company is enhancing collaboration with drilling, oilfield coordination, and environmental assessment departments to ensure efficient operations [2] - A detailed operational plan has been developed to anticipate and address potential challenges during implementation, maintaining a proactive work rhythm [2]

据"加纳网"11月28日报道，为扭转原油产量从2019年7140万桶锐减至明年预期3600万桶的颓势，加 纳宣布将于2026年启动沃尔特盆地陆上钻探计划。然而，该计划正面临公民社会的强烈质疑，其国家石 油公司（GNPC）不仅因屡次推迟钻探时间表且耗资超1.2亿美元未见实质成果而引发信任危机，更被披 露存在挪用4.888亿美元采油收益与巨额高尔夫俱乐部支出等财务违规问题。专家同时指出，该盆地商 业化生产至少需待2033年后，无法解当前燃眉之急。民间组织为此呼吁，政府必须在推进钻探前强化财 务监管与问责，以有效保护国家资源。 （原标题：加纳计划2026年启动陆上钻探 民间组织质疑筹备进展与资金透明度） ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile session, with the ChiNext Index initially rising by 2.21% before a significant drop in the afternoon, leading to both the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index closing in the red [1] - A total of 11 companies announced shareholder reduction plans, with 7 planning to reduce their holdings by more than 1% [1] Shareholder Reduction Trends - Notable companies involved in the reduction include Zhongman Petroleum and Yidelong, both of which have seen significant stock price increases recently [1] - Yidelong's stock price rebounded from a low of 12.38 yuan to a high of 56.30 yuan, marking a maximum increase of 355%. A major shareholder plans to reduce 3.2 million shares, accounting for 2% of total shares, expecting to cash out approximately 116 million yuan [2] - Zhongman Petroleum's stock price increased from 5.83 yuan to 26.66 yuan over five years, a maximum increase of 357%. However, the company reported a 32.18% decline in net profit for Q3, prompting shareholders to plan a reduction of up to 13.87 million shares, or 3% of total shares, with an expected cash-out of 323 million yuan [3] Broader Market Implications - The trend of shareholder reductions is not isolated, with significant reductions totaling over 380 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, and a 62% year-on-year increase in the first two weeks of August alone [3] - The primary drivers of these reductions are not retail investors but rather company insiders, with controlling shareholders and actual controllers accounting for 40.3% of the reductions [3] - Sectors with the highest reduction activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, and new materials, which collectively account for over 42% of the reductions [3] Sector-Specific Insights - In the technology sector, 106 companies announced major shareholder reduction plans since September, with the electronics industry being the most affected [5] - Notable examples include Lanke Technology, where shareholders announced a reduction of 11.45 million shares, potentially cashing out around 3.29 billion yuan after a 75.18% increase in stock price [5] - Other companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Anda Intelligent also saw significant shareholder reductions despite their stock price increases, indicating a trend of insiders cashing out at high valuations [5][7] Market Behavior and Patterns - Historical data indicates that stock prices tend to drop following shareholder reduction announcements, with a probability exceeding 50% for declines shortly after such announcements [9] - The timing of reductions shows a clear seasonal pattern, with the highest number of reductions occurring in December, followed by September and November [9] - Venture capital firms have also become significant players in this reduction wave, with over 80 companies involved since August, collectively cashing out over 10 billion yuan [11]

新华社香港11月28日电 香港恒生指数28日跌87.04点，跌幅0.34%，收报25858.89点。全日主板成交 1462.04亿港元。 国企指数跌34.69点，收报9130.18点，跌幅0.38%。恒生科技指数涨1.06点，收报5599.11点，涨幅 0.02%。 石油石化股方面，中国石油化工股份跌1.34%，收报4.41港元；中国石油股份跌0.69%，收报8.68港 元；中国海洋石油跌0.75%，收报21.18港元。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王雪】 香港本地股方面，长实集团跌0.3%，收报39.92港元；新鸿基地产跌0.6%，收报98.6港元；恒基地 产跌1.34%，收报29.34港元。 中资金融股方面，中国银行跌1.06%，收报4.68港元；建设银行跌0.73%，收报8.17港元；工商银行 跌0.77%，收报6.44港元；中国平安跌0.96%，收报56.7港元；中国人寿跌1.68%，收报26.86港元。 蓝筹股方面，腾讯控股无升跌，收报611.5港元；香港交易所跌0.19%，收报411港元；中国移动涨 0.06%，收报87.3港元；汇丰控股涨0.28%，收报109.3港元。 ...

Group 1: Pork Price Outlook - Pork prices are expected to improve quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase anticipated in Q3 2026[1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million, with a target of reducing to 39 million, indicating a necessary monthly reduction of 280,000 sows[1] - The year-on-year decline in breeding sow inventory is projected to reach -1.62%, -2.50%, and -3.20% for October, November, and December 2025 respectively[1] Group 2: Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has a total remaining production capacity of 3.4 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding 2.13 million barrels per day, indicating limited short-term production increase capabilities[2] - The WTI oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, with geopolitical risks potentially pushing this higher[2] - U.S. shale oil production is anticipated to face reduction pressures, with capital expenditures and rig counts declining, leading to a production bottleneck by the end of 2025[2] Group 3: CPI and PPI Projections - Under neutral conditions, CPI is projected to be around 0.5% for 2026, with pork prices averaging 19, 20, 21, and 22 CNY/kg across the quarters[3] - In a positive scenario, CPI could rise to approximately 0.7% due to stronger domestic demand and consumption policies[4] - PPI is expected to turn positive around Q3 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 0.2% in Q3 and maintaining around 0.5% in Q4[4]

港股11月交易今日正式收官，三大指数月初冲高挑战阶段新高未果，随即持续回落走低，总体呈现震荡 行情。恒生指数微幅下跌0.18%，国企指数跌0.42%，唯独恒生科技指数跌幅相对较大，月跌5.23%。其 中，恒指本月在26000点反复，最终仍旧失守关键点位。 板块方面，航空股、石油股、保险股、银行股板块涨幅较为可观，其中，三大航空股涨幅均超10%以 上，中国东方航空涨幅更是达到15%，三桶油亦表现不俗，中国石油股份涨超8%，中国海洋石油不断 创新高！另外，中国人寿涨9.54%，中国人民保险月内创新高，工商银行、农业银行亦刷新历史新高。 另外，稀土板块跌幅较大，锂电池股、苹果概念股、半导体股、中资券商股、光伏股板块走低。其中， 芯片龙头中芯国际跌超8%。 大型科技股方面，京东跌8.7%，阿里巴巴跌8.24%，二者跌幅相对较大；快手跌6.29%，小米跌5.5%， 百度跌3.23%，腾讯跌2.78%，网易跌1.38%，美团小幅上涨0.49%。(格隆汇) ...