日内消息： 1.财政部：境外投资者以中国境内居民企业分配的利润，在2025年1月1日至2028年12月31日期间用于境内直 接投资符合条件的，可按照投资额的10%抵免境外投资者当年的应纳税额，当年不足抵免的准予向以后结 转。中华人民共和国政府同外国政府订立的税收协定中关于股息、红利等权益性投资收益适用税率低于10% 的，按照协定税率执行。 行情研判： 国债期货日报 2025年6月30日 下跌的核心逻辑是什么？ 观点：等待右侧进场 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货全天震荡下行，午后A股涨幅扩大，期债跌幅进一步深化。公开市场方面，到期逆回购2205亿，央 行新做3315亿，当日净投放1110亿，但早盘隔夜资金价格上行至3%以上，资金面情绪指数超过60，资金面 压力明显。 6月制造业PMI符合预期，非制造业小幅超预期，但仍在荣枯线下方的并不能给债市如此大的压力。其他方 面，上周五货币政策例会措辞的修改一定程度会压制预期，但无法改变支持性的政策立场和基本面环境。此 外包括邀请特朗普参加阅兵等略显小众的股市"疑似利多"对债市的影响就更加虚无缥缈 ...

| 重点关注 | 7月01日 16:00 欧元区6月制造业PMI终值 7月01日 22:00 美国6月ISM制造业PMI 7月02日 20:15 美国6月ADP就业人数(万人) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | | | | | 研究员： | | 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 | 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. With the weakening of the overseas economic situation, it is recommended to go short on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME is 2,041.5 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 82,414 lots, down 753 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,141 lots, down 198 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 46,288 tons, up 403 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 51,929 tons, up 638 tons; the LME lead inventory is 271,925 tons, down 1,500 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,180 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 250 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.14 dollars/ton, down 0.74 dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,303 yuan, up 274 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.95%, down 16.33 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.83%, up 4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,700 tons, up 900 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 40 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average market price of waste batteries is 10,178.57 yuan/ton, up 1.78 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,500 yuan/ton, down 3,800 yuan. The monthly output of automobiles is 2.642 million vehicles, down 50,000 vehicles; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million vehicles, an increase of 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Market Outlook - On the supply side, primary lead smelters increase their operating rates and output due to rising lead prices. Although the price of lead warms up slightly, reducing the loss pressure of recycled lead, the recycled lead supply has limited incremental space as the second - quarter traditional off - season reduces battery replacement demand and increases the difficulty of subsequent production improvement. On the demand side, market transactions are generally weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles shows a slowdown. In terms of inventory, overseas inventories decline again; domestic inventories decline slightly while warehouse receipts increase, mainly due to the obvious price difference between domestic and overseas markets, creating arbitrage space. The lead concentrate processing fee starts to decline, which has a negative impact on the subsequent production of recycled lead and primary lead [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with expectations for three rate cuts increasing due to easing tensions in trade and geopolitical conflicts [5]. Macroeconomic Summary - The U.S. core PCE price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [2]. - The U.S. first-quarter real GDP annualized rate declined by 0.5%, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% [2]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 236,000, with the previous value revised to 246,000 [2]. - The market is observing a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials open to cuts as early as July, while others suggest it may be premature [2]. Commodity Market Summary - The silver market is influenced by the performance of gold; if gold experiences a significant pullback, silver prices may also adjust, but if gold maintains a high-level fluctuation, silver could see upward momentum [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which has a limited negative impact on gold prices, as previous influences on gold were relatively minor [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July with a probability of 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 20.7% [4]. Investment Outlook - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains one of cautious adjustment, with expectations of rate cuts providing some support for gold and silver prices [5]. - The potential for significant price movements in precious metals is limited in the short term, with both gold and silver expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The hype sentiment in the external market's previous trading of the oil and fat logic has weakened with the decline of crude oil. The US soybean is approaching the time - node to confirm the planting area, and after the announcement, the weather conditions in the production area should be continuously monitored. The real - world pressure in the domestic market will continue to suppress the upward space of the near - month spot and the futures market, while the supply gap and weather - related speculation logic for the far - month contracts still exist. Therefore, reverse spreads and bottom - fishing for far - month contracts are suitable [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1857 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3888 [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy - **Trader Inventory Management**: When the protein inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in meal prices, traders with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, feed mills with short positions can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, oil mills with long positions can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The external market's previous oil - related trading logic has weakened, and the US soybean is at a key time for planting area confirmation. The domestic market has near - month pressure and far - month supply gap and weather speculation logic [4]. 3.4 Bullish Interpretation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Bearish Interpretation - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures market through warehouse receipt registration, which is expected to lead to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, the oil mill operating rate is rising, and the crushing volume has increased month - on - month, with some areas urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the third quarter is still relatively abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations [6]. - The inventory depletion of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream has a low cost - performance ratio for adding rapeseed meal. The market's reaction to the news of the WTO establishing a panel to investigate Sino - Canadian tariff issues lacks elasticity, and the subsequent trend of rapeseed meal will mainly follow that of soybean meal, with its own market expected to be weak [6]. 3.6 Oil Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2987, up 4 (0.13%); soybean meal 05 is 2707, down 3 (- 0.11%); soybean meal 09 is 2946, up 10 (0.34%) [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2290, down 15 (- 0.65%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2321, down 9 (- 0.39%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2559, up 9 (0.35%) [10]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybean**: The closing price is 1016.25, unchanged (0%) [10]. - **Off - shore RMB**: The closing price is 7.1619, down 0.0128 (- 0.18%) [10]. 3.7 Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal Spread**: The spread of M01 - 05 is 280, up 7; M05 - 09 is - 239, down 13; M09 - 01 is - 41, up 6 [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spread of RM01 - 05 is - 31, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 238, down 18; RM09 - 01 is 269, up 24 [11]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2840, unchanged; the basis is - 106, down 10. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2578, down 23; the basis is 28, up 15. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 262, unchanged; the futures spread is 387, up 1 [11]. 3.8 Oil Import Cost and Crushing Profit - **Import Cost**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4493.3329 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and down 0.0643 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3738.92 yuan/ton, up 0.38 yuan/ton and down 138.33 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 700.3529 yuan/ton, up 18.7774 yuan/ton and up 108.2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 229.0205 yuan/ton, up 28.0974 yuan/ton and unchanged week - on - week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 87 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton and down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 80 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton and down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - Glass demand remains weakly expected, with low prices but lack of drivers and no unplanned cold repair expectations. If low prices persist, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations and the sustainability of speculative sentiment. Although the glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamental drivers are limited [2]. - The expectation of oversupply in the soda ash market remains consistent, and there are still new production capacities planned in the long - term. The cost is decreasing. Currently, maintenance has a very weak impact on the futures market, and cost support is insufficient. Further decline in the futures price requires a decrease in the spot price, and the driving force comes from a new round of production cuts on the demand side or further inventory accumulation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 900 - 1100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 72.2%. The monthly price range forecast for soda ash is 1000 - 1250, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.12% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.0% [1]. Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short glass futures (FG2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1050, and sell call options (FG509 C1100) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40. For soda ash inventory management, short soda ash futures (SA2509) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry point of 1250, and sell call options (SA509 C1200) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [1]. Core Contradictions - Glass: Demand is weakly expected, prices are low but lack drivers, and there are no unplanned cold repair expectations. Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of oversupply, new production capacities in the long - term, and cost reduction [2]. 利多 and 利空解读 - **Glass - Bullish factors**: Low prices may stimulate short - term speculative sentiment; if low prices persist, cold repair expectations may gradually increase; mid - stream inventory is relatively low. Bearish factors: There is still ignition expectation on the supply side, actual demand is weak, and overall social inventory is high [2]. - **Soda ash - Bullish factors**: Low prices may lead to a phased improvement in manufacturers' order - signing; high export levels relieve domestic oversupply pressure. Bearish factors: Photovoltaic production has continuous kiln - mouth blockages, with an expected weakening of rigid demand; social inventory is at an absolute historical high; cost support is insufficient [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Glass**: On June 27, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1121 (up 8 or 0.72% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1019 (up 3 or 0.3%), and the 01 contract was 1077 (up 4 or 0.37%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 102 (up 5), the 9 - 1 month spread was - 58 (down 1), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 44 (down 4). The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 3 (down 8.8), and in Hubei was - 53 (up 54). The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 105.2 (down 3.8), and in Hubei was - 16 (up 1) [3][5]. - **Soda ash**: On June 27, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1215 (up 7 or 0.58% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1196 (up 16 or 1.36%), and the 01 contract was 1192 (up 20 or 1.71%). The 5 - 9 month spread was 19 (down 9 or 32.14%), the 9 - 1 month spread was 4 (down 4 or 50%), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 (up 13 or - 36.11%). The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 18 (down 16), and the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 236 (down 16) [7]. Spot Price Data - **Glass**: The average spot price of glass in Shahe on June 27, 2025, was 1124.2 (down 0.8 from the previous day). The prices in different regions remained stable [6]. - **Soda ash**: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali spot prices in different regions remained stable on June 27, 2025 [8].

Core Insights - The 2-year government bond futures contract (2509) closed at +0.03% with a trading volume of 37,300 contracts as of June 27 [1][2] - The total trading volume for all contracts reached 38,400 contracts, an increase of 1,310 contracts from the previous day [1][3] - The top 20 positions showed a net short position with a difference of 18,880 contracts [1] Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for the 2-year government bond futures was 38,400 contracts, with a daily increase of 1,310 contracts [1][3] - The top 20 long positions totaled 88,100 contracts, an increase of 72 contracts from the previous day [1][4] - The top 20 short positions totaled 107,000 contracts, an increase of 48 contracts from the previous day [1][4] Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Citic Futures (18,555 contracts), Ping An Futures (9,321 contracts), and Citic Jiantou (7,969 contracts) [1][3] - The top three short positions were held by Citic Futures (36,922 contracts), GF Futures (15,533 contracts), and Guotai Junan (11,576 contracts) [1][3] - The largest increase in long positions was seen in Yong'an Futures (2,301 contracts, +232), Guotai Junan (5,314 contracts, +181), and Huatai Futures (3,351 contracts, +157) [1][4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily for June 27, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Tin Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,270 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 19.07%, and the current volatility historical percentile is 47.0% [2] Group 3: Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at an appropriate volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2] Group 4: Market Factors Positive Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] Negative Factors - Tariff policy reversals, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][6] Group 5: Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures is 267,270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - one is 267,260 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai tin continuous - three is 266,880 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME tin 3M is 33,140 US dollars/ton (up 680 US dollars, 2.09%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.12 (up 0.08, 1%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 265,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.53%), 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan, - 28.57%), 40% tin concentrate is 253,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60% tin concentrate is 257,800 yuan/ton (up 1,400 yuan, 0.55%), 60A solder bar is 172,750 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.58%), 63A solder bar is 180,250 yuan/ton (up 1,000 yuan, 0.56%), and lead - free solder is 271,750 yuan/ton (up 1,500 yuan, 0.56%) [10][13] Group 6: Tin Import and Processing Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss is - 11,873.99 yuan/ton (up 843.25 yuan, - 6.63%), 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] Group 7: Tin Inventory Inventory Data (Daily) - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,591 tons (up 119 tons, 1.84%), with 4,242 tons in Guangdong (up 125 tons, 3.04%) and 1,424 tons in Shanghai (down 6 tons, - 0.42%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,115 tons (down 40 tons, - 1.86%) [17]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the US PCE inflation data is expected to significantly impact market dynamics, particularly affecting the dollar and gold prices [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The US PCE price index for May is anticipated to rise by 2.3% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in April, while the core PCE is expected to increase by 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in April [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that if the PCE data, especially the core index, falls short of expectations, it could weaken the dollar and boost other major non-USD currencies [2][3]. Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently influenced by a complex macroeconomic environment, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Factors supporting potential gold price increases include sustained demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical issues, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing high levels of US debt and deficits [4][5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) offers a low-cost investment option that closely tracks domestic gold prices, supporting T+0 trading and providing a long-term hedge against economic downturns [5]. Market Sentiment - Recent economic data from the US indicates weakening consumer confidence and spending, which may put short-term pressure on the economy, although the Federal Reserve remains cautious regarding inflation uncertainties [5]. - Despite a generally weak dollar index trend, the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates has temporarily mitigated the dollar's decline, while gold remains supported by increasing international trade risks [5].

Group 1 - The total demand for rebar steel this week is 2.1991 million tons, slightly up from 2.1919 million tons last week, but lower than the same period in previous years [1] - The total inventory of rebar in major cities across the country is recorded at 3.634 million tons, a decrease of 53,500 tons or 1.45% from the previous week; over the past month, the total inventory has decreased by 311,900 tons, a reduction of 7.90% [1] - Recent price adjustments for rebar in Yunnan steel mills show significant increases in price margins across various specifications, indicating a shift in pricing strategy [1] Group 2 - The current market conditions for steel show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to a seasonal inventory build-up; short-term price fluctuations are expected [2] - The core issue in the market is the balance between iron water resilience and the accumulation of finished product inventory alongside reduced demand expectations [2] - Steel mills are experiencing profit compression, leading to a decrease in production rates; rebar demand is significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating a weak market [3] Group 3 - The production of major steel products is seasonally declining, with a noted decrease in electric furnace operating rates [3] - Recent macroeconomic information has been reflected in the market, shifting trading logic back to fundamental drivers, suggesting a potential recovery in undervalued steel prices [3] - Traders are advised to consider short positions during rebounds, while monitoring negative feedback expectations in the market [3]