2025 年 05 月 19 日 农林牧渔 气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏 弱 生猪养殖：气温升高消费增幅受限，猪价或震荡偏弱 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.77 元/kg，周环比-0.27%，两周环比-0.07%； 仔猪价格 630 元/头，周环比-2.63%，两周环比-1.47%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.84 元/kg，周环比+0.07%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 16.91 万头，周环比变动-2.49%。 周观点：周内全国均价震荡偏弱，整体来看，本周终端需求表现平淡， 屠企白条反馈走货难度较强，维持对价格的下压操作，可供应端口尚 未呈现明显节奏加快表现，从而传导至屠企端口竞价较为谨慎，所以 本周日间价格波动幅度不大。短期来看，气温升高拖累消费整体增幅 空间受限，不过从供给端口来看，头部集团、放养公司以及二次育肥， 均存在一定增量空间，所以供需对抗预期来看，供给端议价话语权或 有下降，所以预计近期行情维持偏弱运行。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡久稳小跌，分割品强硬挺价 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，本周种蛋价格偏弱势运行为主。受鸡苗 价格弱势影响，种蛋市场交投不快，企业上孵意愿偏弱，且种 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The recent confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Brazilian commercial poultry may have limited impact if it does not affect imports from other states or lead to nationwide import suspensions [11][12] - The reliance on chicken imports from Brazil is low, with only 5.5% of chicken meat being imported, primarily consisting of chicken by-products [11] - The price of lean pork has decreased to 14.63 CNY/kg, down 0.7% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 1.6% to 20.94 CNY/kg [12][13] - White feather chicken prices have dropped to 7.4 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.7%, and chicken product prices have also fallen by 0.4% to 8.86 CNY/kg [12][24] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [12] - The agricultural sector has underperformed the market by 1.1 percentage points this week, with a slight increase of 0.05% [8][9] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The price of lean pork is currently 14.63 CNY/kg, down 0.7% from last week, with a focus on leading companies with cost-effectiveness such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [12][13] - The average price of white feather chicken is 7.4 CNY/kg, down 0.7%, and the average price of chicken products is 8.86 CNY/kg, down 0.4% [12][24] - The price of meat chicken chicks is 2.85 CNY each, down 2.1% from last week [12][22] Planting and Agricultural Products - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to begin following the public announcement period, with potential for significant growth in the sector [12] Breeding Support - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller firms due to their advantages in procurement and scale [12]

Core Insights - Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture confirmed the first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial farm, marking a significant event for the country's poultry industry [1] Group 1: Outbreak Details - The outbreak was reported on May 16, 2023, in a commercial breeding farm located in Monte Negro, Rio Grande do Sul [1] - The virus identified is the H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - This incident raises concerns for Brazil's poultry sector, which is a major player in the global market for poultry products [1] - The discovery of HPAI in a commercial setting could lead to increased biosecurity measures and potential impacts on poultry production and exports [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the United States has imposed restrictions on imports of chicken products from Brazil due to an outbreak of avian influenza [1] Group 2 - The restrictions are a response to concerns over the spread of avian influenza, which could impact the poultry industry [1] - This decision may affect Brazil's chicken exports, which are significant to its economy [1]

巴西农业部长：由于禽流感爆发引发的贸易禁令，国内鸡肉供应可能会增加，从而降低本地价格。 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company has distributed a total of RMB 1.024 billion in cash dividends since its listing in 2015, with a focus on stable and predictable dividend policies [3] - In 2024, the company approved a profit distribution plan that resulted in a total cash dividend of RMB 215,134,681.75, which accounted for 104.36% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for that year [3] - The company has implemented a continuous and stable dividend distribution policy, responding to regulatory guidelines aimed at enhancing dividend stability and predictability [3] Group 2: Business Expansion and Market Strategy - The company has initiated a four-phase share buyback plan, with a total investment of RMB 68.6132 million as of February 13, 2025, to support its long-term development [4] - The company is actively expanding its international marketing network, focusing on markets in the EU, Japan, South Korea, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa [7] - The company has established a subsidiary in Shanghai to innovate and improve its cooked food products, aiming to meet the diverse and personalized needs of the market [5] Group 3: Production Capacity and Project Development - The company’s Zucheng project is expected to produce 54.7281 million broilers in 2024, with a total slaughter capacity of 250-270 million chickens upon full completion [6] - The first phase of the Zucheng project, including processing plants and breeding farms, is already operational, with 27 out of 39 planned farms in production [6] - The company is enhancing its product offerings in the prepared food sector, aiming to increase market share and brand influence [5]

据华盛顿邮报：英国也拒绝购买用激素处理的美国鸡肉。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth of the Qingyuan chicken industry, which has achieved an annual output value exceeding 10 billion yuan, driven by e-commerce, brand development, and live-streaming sales strategies [8][12][10]. Group 1: Industry Growth and E-commerce Impact - The Qingyuan chicken industry is recognized as one of the five major billion-yuan modern agricultural industries in Qingyuan, with a comprehensive output value surpassing 10 billion yuan [8][12]. - E-commerce sales of Qingyuan chicken (fresh/prepared) are projected to exceed 10 million units and generate over 1.3 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, maintaining the top position nationally [14][12]. - The transformation of the Qingyuan chicken industry is attributed to the integration of digitalization, strategic shifts by companies, and innovative government policies [15][10]. Group 2: Company Initiatives and Product Development - Liu Qiuyan, founder of the company "Chicken Mama," initiated a business to make Qingyuan chicken accessible to a broader audience through e-commerce and live-streaming [21][23]. - The company has developed various prepared chicken products, achieving sales exceeding 10 million yuan for several items, establishing itself as a model enterprise in the prepared food sector [33][32]. - The collaboration with major e-commerce platforms like Taobao and Tmall has significantly expanded the market reach of Qingyuan chicken [37][38]. Group 3: Marketing Strategies and Consumer Engagement - The use of live-streaming and short videos has effectively increased consumer awareness and sales of Qingyuan chicken products, with notable sales events generating substantial revenue [30][31]. - The "traceability live-streaming" model has been adopted to enhance consumer trust by showcasing the production process and quality control of Qingyuan chicken [56][58]. - The partnership with high-profile brands and influencers has led to successful promotional campaigns, with some live-streaming events achieving sales of over 3 million yuan [68][69]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Industry Significance - The Qingyuan chicken industry is positioned as a key player in rural revitalization efforts, contributing to local economic development and agricultural modernization [78][80]. - The combination of entrepreneurial spirit, government support, and farmer innovation is crucial for the continued growth and market penetration of Qingyuan chicken [78][80]. - The industry aims to leverage digital tools to enhance brand identity and market potential, paving the way for broader national recognition [79][80].

2025 年 05 月 13 日 农林牧渔 产能环比增加，5 月猪价或稳定微涨 生猪养殖：产能稳定微增，猪价短期内或小幅上涨 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.81 元/kg，周环比+0.14%，两周环比-0.50%； 仔猪价格 647 元/头，周环比-0.31%，两周环比-0.15%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.82 元/kg，周环比+0.15%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 17.34 万头，周环比变动+1.89%。 周观点：根据涌益咨询数据，4 月能繁母猪存栏量环比+0.96%，同比 +5.21%，上月环比数值-0.25%。部分中型规模母猪场布局扩产，本月 新增母猪产能略有增加，计划根据下半年卖仔猪或明年自繁自养卖育 肥猪灵活操作。据 Mysteel 点评，5 月份出栏计划较四月份实际完成 微增 1.22%，出栏压力增加不明显，散户和二育集中出栏所造成的影 响有限，加上二育入场托底，大概率月度价格重心上移，均价水平或 高于四月。不过终端需求无明显改善，阶段性拉涨动力不足，因此价 格稳步小涨为主。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡持续稳定，分割品价格大稳小落 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，本周种蛋价格下行调 ...

"供需失衡与疫病是导致白羽肉鸡价格震荡的主要因素。"王欣宇建议，企业可通过优化鸡源结构，增加 合同鸡、自养鸡比例，制定长期精准生产计划来调控。同时加快疫病防控药物研发，降低外部风险干 扰。 卓创资讯白羽肉鸡分析师孙亚男对《证券日报》记者表示，今年前4个月，白羽肉鸡价格为3.48元/斤， 同比下降9.14%。市场饱和、渠道备货意愿不足等因素叠加，导致屠宰企业冻品库存及下游食品加工企 业库存处于高位水平。今年，养殖上游的鸡苗质量参差不齐、特殊天气下昼夜温差大、疫病情况较为严 重，养殖难度明显高于去年同期，对于市场散户的养殖群体冲击较大。从今年产业发展的状况来看，行 业有多处短板亟须补齐。 面对行业痛点，孙亚男建议，从养殖环节来看，企业要强化精细化管理，养殖水平的提高能有效确保养 殖利润的提升。此外，也要关注鸡苗、环境控制等因素对成本的影响。从屠宰环节来看，应加强产业链 合作与整合，纵向一体化发展。通过向前延伸产业链，涉足肉鸡养殖环节，建立自有养殖场或与养殖户 签订长期合作协议，稳定肉鸡供应渠道和质量，降低采购成本和供应风险。向后拓展产业链，发展鸡肉 深加工和销售业务，提高产品附加值和市场竞争力。 历经多年发展，我 ...