1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, including chemical and agricultural products [4]. - It also covers macro - economic news such as international relations, inflation data, and energy - related events [7][8][9]. - For different commodities, it analyzes their fundamentals, price trends, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk points [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. - In the financial market, it analyzes the performance of stock index futures and options, and gives trading suggestions [16][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Products - **Price Changes**: On March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, prices of some chemicals like methanol, plastic, and polypropylene PP increased, while natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and styrene decreased [4]. - **Analysis of Specific Products**: - **Caustic Soda**: The market has an optimistic price expectation, but attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export orders, inventory changes, and device maintenance progress. There is a risk of near - month contract callback if the futures price is much higher than the spot price [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is still strong, with an upward - biased oscillation. The demand side is supported by the expected increase in daily iron - water production [13][14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price dropped, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. It is expected to continue the weak oscillation, and there is a risk of further price decline if demand does not improve [14]. - **Urea**: The market price is weakly stable. Supply is relatively sufficient, and industrial demand is marginally increasing. There is a risk of futures price callback at high levels [14]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Price Changes**: On March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, prices of some agricultural products like yellow soybean No. 1, yellow soybean No. 2, and soybean meal decreased, while white sugar increased [4]. - **Analysis of Specific Products**: - **White Sugar**: After a technical correction, attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton. There are risks from domestic supply pressure and overall commodity market sentiment [11]. - **Corn**: It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support in the 2360 - 2370 area [11]. - **Peanut**: It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [11]. - **Pork**: The overall spot market has an oversupply situation, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, constantly seeking new support through decline [11]. - **Egg**: The spot price has ups and downs. The futures price is short - term oscillating strongly, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [13]. - **Red Date**: The spot price is temporarily stable, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low [13]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. It is advisable to consider long - position layout near the lower limit of the price range, but pay attention to the pressure from the high internal - external price difference [13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are oscillating at high levels with large fluctuations. There are both supportive and suppressive factors [14]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The aluminum price is relatively strongly supported by fundamentals, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return [14]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand situation has not changed much. There are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea, and a long - position bias at low prices is recommended [14][15]. 3.4 Steel and Iron Alloys - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price is oscillating slightly upward. The raw material price is strong, providing cost support. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand and inventory changes [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The alloys rebounded strongly on Tuesday. They are indirectly benefited from the energy premium caused by geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to take a long - position bias on corrections, but not to chase high prices [15]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct range operations, paying attention to the pressure at 160,000 yuan/ton and the support at 154,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. 3.6 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 17, A - share market indexes declined. Different stock index futures and options have different performance in terms of position, trading volume, and basis. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - straddle positions to short volatility [16][17]. - **Stock Index**: The market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East conflict and energy prices. It is recommended to control positions, pay attention to the low - volume signals of mainstream wide - based ETFs, and conduct low - absorption and rolling operations [17][19].

文字早评 2026/03/18 星期三 宏观金融类 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：15.03%/5.80%/10.66%/7.79%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：16.13%/9.06%/15.96%/10.73%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：5.89%/9.44%/19.27%/12.73%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：4.29%/3.18%/4.81%/4.41%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、核心 PCE 数据及就业基本符合预期，美联储降息预 期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升；国内出口韧性、PPI 连续收窄，建议关注战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 股指 【行情资讯】 1、伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在外事会议上否决了与美国"缓和紧张关系或实现和平"的 提议；驻日美军两栖攻击舰驶向中东； 2、新一批 15 只硬科技主题基金集中获批，科技创新领域再迎资金活水；国家发改委推出新一批 13 个 重大外资项目，计划投资额 134 亿美元； 3、高通批准进行 200 亿美元的股票回购计划，并将提升股息水平； 4、王兴兴：今年机器人会比博尔特跑的快。 文字早 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is volatile. The geopolitical situation in Iran dominates the capital market sentiment, causing the US dollar to break through 100 and putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The indirect impact on other non - ferrous metal varieties is gradually emerging, with an overall volatile and bearish trend. The stagflation expectation is increasing [12]. - The price of copper is expected to have its central price shift upwards. Although it is currently under pressure from the rising US dollar and inventory accumulation, the long - term inflation expectation boosted by oil prices and the approaching peak consumption season will support the price [3][15]. - Zinc is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical factors, supply increase, and weak demand recovery put pressure on the price [4][17]. - The aluminum industry chain shows a relatively strong trend. Concerns about overseas supply and the recovery of downstream demand support the price, but the impact of the Middle East situation on exports needs to be noted [5][17]. - Tin is in a sideways consolidation state. The fundamentals are relatively calm, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Lead is in a weak consolidation state. Although the supply is increasing, the downstream is still digesting inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8][18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise [9][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metal market is affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. The US dollar breaks through 100, and the market is in a volatile and bearish state. The stagflation expectation is increasing. The Chinese government continues to implement an active fiscal policy, and the economic data shows mixed performance. The Australian central bank raises interest rates, and the inflation risk in the Middle East conflict is increasing. The short - term trend of non - ferrous metals is affected by geopolitical factors and risk sentiment [12][13]. - **Variety Analysis** - **Copper**: The price is under short - term pressure but is expected to rise in the long term. The inflation expectation and the approaching peak consumption season will support the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][15]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical factors, supply increase, and weak demand recovery put pressure on the price. It is recommended to be short - term bearish and buy on dips [4][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply concern and the recovery of downstream demand support the price. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach [5][17]. - **Tin**: The price is in a sideways consolidation state. The fundamentals are relatively calm. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Lead**: The price is in a weak consolidation state. The supply is increasing, but the downstream is still digesting inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [8][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price is affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, net long - position change, net short - position change, and influencing factors of each variety [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain data charts are provided, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][26][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant arbitrage data charts are provided, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread [49][51][53]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant option data charts are provided, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and position ratio [66][69][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple有色金属 (non-ferrous metals) option markets, including aluminum alloy, aluminum, alumina, copper, nickel, lead, tin, and zinc. It presents market data, option factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each option type. Summary by Category 1. Aluminum Alloy (AD) - **标的期货市场数据**: The ad2604 contract closed at 23,725 yuan yesterday, up 10 yuan (0.04%) from the previous day. Trading volume was 6,246 lots, down 278 lots, and open interest was 5,298 lots, down 85 lots [4][7]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 459, with open interest of 979 (up 84). Put option volume was 407 (up 176), with open interest of 968. Volume PCR was 0.89 (up 0.29), and open interest PCR was 0.99 (down 0.04) [5]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level was 22,000, and the support level was 23,400. The weighted implied volatility was 27.73% (down 4.80%), and the annual average implied volatility was 12.85% [6]. - **Option Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a short call + put option combination to gain time - value income and keep the delta of the position neutral, e.g., S_AD2604P22800, S_AD2604C24400 [8]. 2. Aluminum (AL) - **标的期货市场数据**: The al2605 contract closed at 24,990 yuan yesterday, down 100 yuan (0.39%) from the previous day. Trading volume was 285,347 lots, down 75,755 lots, and open interest was 310,902 lots, up 1,072 lots [16][19]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 108,154 (down 2,398), with open interest of 114,065 (up 1,398). Put option volume was 43,401 (down 12,902), with open interest of 68,052 (down 170). Volume PCR was 0.4 (down 0.11), and open interest PCR was 0.6 (down 0.01) [17]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level was 26,000, and the support level was 23,000. The weighted implied volatility was 28.48% (down 1.65%), and the annual average implied volatility was 16.30% [18]. - **Option Strategies**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull call spread to gain directional income, e.g., B_AL2604C25000, S_AL2604C26000. Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + put option combination to gain time - value income and keep the delta of the position neutral, e.g., S_AL2604P23600, S_AL2604P24000, S_AL2604C25600, S_AL2604C26000 [20]. 3. Alumina (AO) - **标的期货市场数据**: The ao2605 contract closed at 3,073 yuan yesterday, up 101 yuan (3.39%) from the previous day. Trading volume was 1,392,390 lots, up 583,864 lots, and open interest was 280,554 lots, up 13,284 lots [28][31]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 356,298 (up 145,978), with open interest of 107,282 (up 2,760). Put option volume was 75,628 (up 33,171), with open interest of 48,231 (up 5,766). Volume PCR was 0.21 (up 0.01), and open interest PCR was 0.45 (up 0.04) [29]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level was 3,400, and the support level was 2,600. The weighted implied volatility was 32.30% (up 3.36%), and the annual average implied volatility was 23.76% [30]. - **Option Strategies**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull call spread to gain directional income. Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + put option combination to gain time - value income and keep the delta of the position neutral, e.g., S_AO2605P2800, S_AO2605C3200 [32]. 4. Copper (CU) - **标的期货市场数据**: The cu2604 contract closed at 99,340 yuan yesterday, down 270 yuan (0.27%) from the previous day. Trading volume was 87,084 lots, down 41,562 lots, and open interest was 178,968 lots, down 14,371 lots [41][44]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 73,004 (down 1,728), with open interest of 82,363 (up 1,826). Put option volume was 69,170 (down 30,305), with open interest of 65,444 (up 557). Volume PCR was 0.95 (down 0.38), and open interest PCR was 0.79 (down 0.01) [42]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level was 116,000, and the support level was 100,000. The weighted implied volatility was 30.49% (down 0.99%), and the annual average implied volatility was 14.69% [43]. - **Option Strategies**: Directional strategy: Construct a bull call spread to gain directional income, e.g., B_CU2604C98000, S_CU2604C106000. Volatility strategy: Construct a short volatility option combination to gain time - value income, e.g., S_CU2604P96000, S_CU2604P98000, S_CU2604C108000, S_CU2604C112000 [45]. 5. Nickel (NI) - **标的期货市场数据**: The ni2605 contract closed at 135,940 yuan yesterday, down 460 yuan (0.33%) from the previous day. Trading volume was 342,807 lots, down 8,109 lots, and open interest was 207,749 lots, down 438 lots [53][56]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 94,926 (up 18,183), with open interest of 22,222 (up 2,222). Put option volume was 22,843 (down 5,500), with open interest of 28,269 (down 594). Volume PCR was 0.24 (down 0.13), and open interest PCR was 0.51 (down 0.03) [54]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level was 150,000, and the support level was 130,000. The weighted implied volatility was 46.67% (down 0.69%), and the annual average implied volatility was 30.65% [55]. - **Option Strategies**: No directional strategy. Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + put option combination to gain time - value income and keep the delta of the position neutral, e.g., S_NI2604P126000, S_NI2604P130000, S_NI2604C146000, S_NI2604C150000 [57]. 6. Lead (PB) - **标的期货市场数据**: The pb2604 contract closed at 16,600 yuan yesterday, up 235 yuan (1.43%) from the previous day. Trading volume was 67,847 lots, down 6,165 lots, and open interest was 51,162 lots, down 14,887 lots [65][68]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 17,820 (up 4,725), with open interest of 12,353 (up 998). Put option volume was 8,215 (down 2,656), with open interest of 7,469 (up 216). Volume PCR was 0.46 (down 0.37), and open interest PCR was 0.6 (down 0.03) [66]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level was 17,000, and the support level was 16,000. The weighted implied volatility was 24.53% (down 1.35%), and the annual average implied volatility was 18.10% [67]. - **Option Strategies**: No directional strategy. Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + put option combination to gain time - value income and keep the delta of the position neutral, e.g., S_PB2604P15800, S_PB2604C16200, S_PB2604C17200, S_PB2604C17600 [69]. 7. Tin (SN) - **标的期货市场数据**: The sn2604 contract closed at 375,110 yuan yesterday, up 2,340 yuan (0.62%) from the previous day. Trading volume was 222,329 lots, down 16,816 lots, and open interest was 31,700 lots, down 1,355 lots [77][80]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 63,796 (up 15,503), with open interest of 24,823 (up 1,428). Put option volume was 27,011 (down 22,613), with open interest of 15,720 (up 862). Volume PCR was 0.42 (down 0.6), and open interest PCR was 0.63 [78]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level was 525,000, and the support level was 350,000. The weighted implied volatility was 67.98% (down 0.29%), and the annual average implied volatility was 37.28% [79]. - **Option Strategies**: No directional strategy. Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + put option combination to gain time - value income and keep the delta of the position neutral, e.g., S_SN2604P375000, S_SN2604C410000 [81]. 8. Zinc (ZN) - **标的期货市场数据**: The zn2604 contract closed at 23,700 yuan yesterday, down 315 yuan (1.31%) from the previous day. Trading volume was 81,736 lots, down 27,250 lots, and open interest was 73,741 lots, down 3,576 lots [89][92]. - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 20,841 (down 5,389), with open interest of 25,405 (up 1,206). Put option volume was 24,220 (down 4,320), with open interest of 21,721 (up 2,365). Volume PCR was 1.16 (up 0.07), and open interest PCR was 0.85 (up 0.06) [90]. - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The pressure level was 25,000, and the support level was 23,000. The weighted implied volatility was 24.69% (up 0.01%), and the annual average implied volatility was 17.62% [91]. - **Option Strategies**: No directional strategy. Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + put option combination to gain time - value income and keep the delta of the position neutral, e.g., S_ZN2604P23400, S_ZN2604P23800, S_ZN2604C24800, S_ZN2604C25000 [93].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper inventory increase is putting pressure on prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 99,420 with a daily decline of 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 99,410 with a decline of 0.28%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,780 with a decline of 1.07% [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 197,534, a decrease of 95,487 from the previous day, and the open interest was 566,745, a decrease of 30,487. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 16,550, a decrease of 3,178, and the open interest was 293,000, a decrease of 8,255 [1] - The futures inventory of Shanghai Copper was 324,289, an increase of 1,291 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 330,375, an increase of 18,775. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 13.22%, a decrease of 0.36% [1] - **Spot Data**: - The LME copper premium, bonded - area warehouse receipt premium, and bonded - area bill of lading premium all had small changes. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 90,450, an increase of 700 from the previous day [1] - The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 100, a decrease of 210 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was - 80, an increase of 40 from the previous day [1] - The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month contract and selling the consecutive - first contract was 284. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash was 229, a decrease of 14 from the previous day. The spread between the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third contract and LME 3M was 18, a decrease of 77 from the previous day [1] - The spread between Shanghai copper spot and Shanghai 1 recycled copper was 689, an increase of 101 from the previous day. The import profit and loss of recycled copper was 1,175, an increase of 141 from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Zambia's mining minister said the country is actively attracting global investors, aiming to more than triple copper production to 3 million tons by 2031 [1] - After a worker died in an accident on March 12, Rio Tinto Group suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah, USA [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran is escalating, leading to cautious recovery of market risk - appetite, with the focus on energy transportation risks and inflation expectations. The Fed's policy statement may be slightly hawkish, which will have an impact on the commodity market [2][6]. - The domestic A - share market is weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling and the trading volume shrinking. The bond market is in a weak and volatile pattern. The short - term market is likely to maintain volatility and sector differentiation [3]. - Different commodities have different trends. Metals such as copper, zinc, and tin are under pressure, while some agricultural products and steel products show signs of recovery [6][12][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, with a low probability of short - term negotiation to end the war. The risk in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable, and the political controversy in the US is rising. The market risk preference is cautiously recovering, with the 10Y US Treasury yield falling to 4.2% [2]. - Domestic: The SASAC focuses on "two important" and "two new" projects to expand effective investment. The A - share market is weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.85% to 4049 points. The bond market rebounds slightly, but is likely to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures closed mixed on Tuesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $5011.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.51% to $79.46 per ounce. The geopolitical situation and inflation pressure jointly affect the market, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [4]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract continued to fluctuate. LME inventory rose to 330,000 tons. The Fed's policy statement may be slightly hawkish, which is negative for the metal market in the short term. It is expected that copper prices will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term [6]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,990 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The domestic aluminum social inventory is at a high level, and the spot transaction has a high discount. Although the supply - demand is weak, the bottom support of aluminum prices is still strong due to concerns about production cuts in the Middle East [8]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract rose 3.4% to 3,073 yuan/ton on Tuesday. Market expectations of supply disruptions in bauxite have increased, but the current price increase lacks significant capital support. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 23,750 yuan/ton on Tuesday, down 0.08%. The cost support is good, but the supply - demand momentum is weak. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [11]. 3.7 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract fell on Tuesday. LME inventory increased by 20,875 tons, which hit the market sentiment. The fundamentals support weakened, but the decline may be alleviated to some extent. It is expected to continue to seek support [12]. 3.8 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract rebounded from a low level. The downstream battery enterprises' purchasing boosted the price, but the high inventory will limit the rebound height. It is expected to maintain low - level range - bound fluctuations [13]. 3.9 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract adjusted on Tuesday. The geopolitical situation and the strong US dollar put pressure on the price. The fundamental support weakened, and it is expected to continue to adjust under the pressure of the strong US dollar [14]. 3.10 Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract stabilized on Tuesday. The geopolitical situation put pressure on the price, but the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants decreased, and the mine price is expected to remain high. It is expected to maintain fluctuations in the short term [15]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded slightly on Tuesday, but the short - term bullish confidence was lacking. The global lithium resource supply is expected to gradually recover, and the demand in the energy - storage battery sector is strong. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [16]. 3.12 Steel (Screw and Roll) - Steel futures rebounded on Tuesday. The government's active fiscal policy promotes steel demand. The terminal demand recovers, and it is expected that steel prices will rebound in a volatile manner [18]. 3.13 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures were strong on Tuesday. The overseas shipment increased, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream steel mills resumed production. It is expected that the ore price will rebound in a volatile manner [19]. 3.14 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Double - coking futures rebounded on Tuesday. The coking coal price stabilized and rebounded, and the coke inventory in coking enterprises decreased. It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner [20]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.42% on Tuesday, and rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 1.23%. Brazilian soybean harvest is about 60%, and the import cost supports the domestic market. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will adjust in a volatile manner at a high level [22]. 3.16 Palm Oil - Palm oil 05 contract rose 0.30% on Tuesday. The energy supply concern in the Middle East and the improvement of palm oil exports support the price. It is expected to adjust in a volatile manner in the short term [24].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound in early trading but ultimately retreated due to rising oil prices and the US dollar, leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - The "seesaw" effect was evident, with technology and AI sectors declining while traditional sectors like finance, real estate, and food and beverage saw gains [1] - The uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz continues to impact oil transportation, suggesting potential volatility in oil and dollar prices in the near term [1] Future Outlook - The ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East may influence short-term market dynamics, particularly oil price movements [1] - A significant rise in oil prices could heighten market concerns and affect sector rotation within A-shares, with the petrochemical sector potentially suppressing preferences for technology growth stocks [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term upward trend for A-shares remains intact, supported by increased household savings entering the market and a recovery in the performance of A-share listed companies [1] Hot Sectors - March marks the beginning of the annual report season, with high-performing sectors expected to attract market attention [2] - Key areas of focus include AI hardware, which is experiencing a growth trend, and the anticipated peak of AI applications by 2026 [2] - The trend towards domestic semiconductor production continues, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The demand for new energy materials is rising due to rapid growth in domestic and overseas energy storage needs, leading to supply shortages and price increases [2] - The price increase cycle for non-ferrous metals and chemicals is expected to continue, contributing to strong annual report performances [2]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures, focusing on green finance and new energy, including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage of ore supports the lower price [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Fundamental and macro factors exert pressure, but the current cost provides support [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: It is in a volatile pattern, and market sentiment should be monitored [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: It is in a weakly volatile pattern [2][16]. - Polysilicon: Some warehouse receipts are cancelled [2][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel main contract was 135,940, down 460 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 14,095, down 25 compared to T - 1. Other indicators such as trading volume, price differentials, and import profits also showed corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore, a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala, and there are production quota adjustments and various incidents in the Indonesian nickel industry [4][5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 155,320, down 4,300 compared to T - 1. Other indicators such as trading volume, open interest, and price differentials of related products also changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The export of mainstream phosphate fertilizers is suspended for spring plowing, and Tesla and LG Energy will build a lithium iron phosphate battery factory [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2605 was 8,560, down 125 compared to T - 1; the closing price of PS2605 was 41,670, down 35 compared to T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price differentials, and inventory [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indian company started a 10GW solar silicon ingot and wafer manufacturing plant [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal ETF Tianhong (159157) has shown significant trading activity and valuation metrics, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector due to favorable market conditions and recent developments in copper demand [1][4]. Trading Activity - As of March 17, the non-ferrous metal ETF Tianhong (159157) had a turnover of 6.65% and a transaction volume of 321 million yuan [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 4.933 billion yuan, with a total of 5.392 billion shares, both marking all-time highs since its inception [2]. - Over the past 22 days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 329 million yuan, totaling 4.33 billion yuan in net inflows [3]. Market Performance - The tracked index, the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index (H11059), declined by 2.37%, marking five consecutive days of losses [1]. - Key constituent stocks such as Shenhuo Co., Ltd. and Hailiang Co., Ltd. saw significant declines, with losses of 6.91% and 6.22%, respectively [1]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index is 25.13, which is at the 40.4% percentile over the past decade, indicating that valuations are lower than 60% of the time historically [1]. Investment Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is highlighted as having significant allocation value due to multiple favorable factors, including supply-side contraction policies, new demand drivers, economic cycle resonance, global deflation expectations, and concerns over U.S. dollar credit [4]. - The copper market is expected to face a supply-demand gap widening to 450,000 tons by 2026, with average copper prices projected to rise to $12,000 per ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but includes individual commodity trend strengths, such as strong (2), moderately strong (1), neutral (0), moderately weak (-1), and weak (-2) [72][75][85] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors significantly influence commodity prices [72][104][137] Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose 1.02%, and London gold spot rose 0.63%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction. The price of Comex silver 2602 rose 1.78%, and London silver spot rose 1.86%. The trend strength is 0 [2][7] - **Platinum**: Continuously monitor the support at the current level. The price of platinum futures 2606 rose 3.73%. The trend strength is 0 [25] - **Palladium**: There was a significant outflow from ETF holdings. The price of palladium futures 2606 rose 2.31%. The trend strength is 0 [25] Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase is pressuring prices. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fell 0.30%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk fell 1.07%. The trend strength is 0 [2][10] - **Zinc**: Facing headwinds in the real - world situation. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract fell 0.86%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk fell 0.44%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][13] - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventory supports prices. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose 1.75%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.16%. The trend strength is 0 [2][16] - **Tin**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.63%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk fell 0.97%. The trend strength is 0 [2][20] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 180. The trend strength is 0 [23] - **Nickel**: The accumulation of smelting inventory and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage at the mine end supports the downside. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 460. The trend strength is 0 [30] - **Stainless Steel**: Fundamentals and macro - factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support. The price of the stainless - steel main contract fell 25. The trend strength is 0 [30] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have a significant impact on energy - related commodities [137] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coking coal 2605 contract fell 5. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Coke**: Trading in a wide range. The price of the coke 2605 contract fell 14. The trend strength is 0 [59] - **Steam Coal**: Prices in the producing areas are rising, and the decline at ports is slowing. The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 coal remained unchanged at 585. The trend strength is - 1 [62] - **Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range adjustment, with prices remaining high in the short term. The price of the fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.67%. The trend strength is 0 [129] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rose at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded. The price of the low - sulfur fuel oil 2604 contract fell 1.26%. The trend strength is 1 [129] Agricultural Products - **Grains**: - **Corn**: Trading in a range. The price of the corn 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [161] - **Soybeans**: - **Soybean Meal**: The market sentiment is recovering, and Dalian soybean meal may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 0 [157] - **Soybean**: The spot price in the producing areas is stable, and the futures price may trade in a range. The price of the DCE soybean 2605 contract rose 0.02%. The trend strength is 0 [158] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: There are frequent speculative themes, and it remains strong in the short term. The price of the palm oil main contract fell 0.56%. The trend strength is 1 [151] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from the soybean complex is limited. Attention should be paid to the China - US consultation process. The price of the soybean oil main contract fell 0.83%. The trend strength is 0 [151] - **Others**: - **Eggs**: Trading in a range. The price of the egg 2604 contract fell 0.46%. The trend strength is 0 [176] - **Hogs**: De - stocking and weight - reduction will start, and the duration may exceed expectations. The price of the hog 2605 contract fell 115. The trend strength is - 2 [179] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The price of the peanut 604 contract rose 0.15%. The trend strength is 0 [184] Chemical Products - **Aromatics and Derivatives**: - **Para - Xylene**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PX main contract fell 1.59%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **PTA**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the PTA main contract fell 0.92%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **MEG**: Unilaterally oscillating strongly. The price of the MEG main contract fell 1.45%. The trend strength is 1 [68] - **Styrene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the styrene 2605 contract rose 101. The trend strength is 1 [109] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating strongly. The price of the pure benzene 2605 contract fell 10. The trend strength is 1 [148] - **Polyolefins**: - **LLDPE**: Cracking supply is contracting, and downstream resistance to high prices is emerging. The price of the LLDPE 2605 contract fell 2.09%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **PP**: The supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, and exports continue to be favorable. The price of the PP 2605 contract fell 2.10%. The trend strength is 1 [82] - **Others**: - **Caustic Soda**: The futures premium is relatively large, and the market is oscillating widely. The price of the caustic soda 05 contract is 2523. The trend strength is 0 [87] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating weakly. The price of the paper pulp main contract fell 144. The trend strength is - 1 [91] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of the glass 605 contract fell 1.97%. The trend strength is 0 [97] - **Methanol**: Running strongly. The price of the methanol main contract rose 10. The trend strength is 1 [100] - **Urea**: Oscillating widely, with fundamentals supporting prices. The price of the urea 05 contract fell 22. The trend strength is 0 [106] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of the soda ash 2605 contract fell 1.43%. The trend strength is 1 [112] - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end may lead to a supply reduction. The price of the propylene 2604 contract fell 2.14%. The trend strength is 1 [117] - **PVC**: Adjusting in the short term. The price of the PVC 05 contract is 5901. The trend strength is 0 [125] Others - **Logs**: The cost is rising, and prices are increasing. The price of the log 2605 contract rose 0.4%. The trend strength is 0 [64] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical sentiment disturbances. The price of the EC2604 contract fell 0.04%. The trend strength is 1 [131] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: High - level fluctuations, with strong cost - driven factors. The price of the short - fiber 2604 contract fell 20, and the price of the bottle - chip 2604 contract fell 348. The trend strength is 1 [141] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The price of the 70g Tianyang paper in the Shandong market remained unchanged at 4500. The trend strength is 0 [144] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar is strengthening, and it is oscillating strongly. The price of the sugar futures main contract fell 66. The trend strength is 1 [165] - **Cotton**: Temporarily showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The price of the CF2605 contract fell 0.42%. The trend strength is 1 [169]