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美生柴政策利好影响还未消退,油脂短期或震荡偏强
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 12:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of strong crude oil and favorable US biodiesel policies, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [6]. - The rainfall in the Midwest soybean - growing areas in the next half - month is not conducive to soybean growth; in June, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly while exports increased significantly, which is positive for palm oil; the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historically high level, and the future import volume may gradually decrease, and the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be monitored. The proposed increase in the US biodiesel blending volume in 2026 is positive for US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil may follow the upward trend, but there may be uncertainties [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 09 be around 7,800. For options, it is advisable to wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is advisable to wait and see. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's policy on importing Canadian rapeseed, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may be oscillating and bullish [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Periodic and Spot Markets - Last week, oils and fats were oscillating and bullish, mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices and favorable US biodiesel policies [18]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil is fluctuating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3. Supply Side - Malaysian palm oil: In May, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil was 1.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. The report was generally bearish [34]. - Domestic soybean and soybean oil: As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66% [65]. - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of June 13, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contracts were 81,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [68]. - Domestic palm oil: As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41% [65]. 4. Demand Side - The document provides charts of the trading volumes of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the three major oils and fats over the years, but no specific analysis is given [56][60][62]. 5. Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 847,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,300 tons, or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 90,600 tons, or 9.66%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 409,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons, or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons, or 11.41%. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 129,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 6. Disk Import Profit - As of June 20, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the July shipment was - 194 yuan/ton [73].
油脂:市场情绪缓和,油脂震荡偏强
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 10:03
油脂:市场情绪缓和 油脂震荡偏强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号:F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0018581 表 1:油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 물 | в | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8152.00 | 8084.00 | 68.00 | 0.84% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8538.00 | 8518.00 | 20.00 | 0.23% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 9691.00 | 9703.00 | -12.00 | -0.12% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1072.75 | 1074.00 | -1.25 | -0.12% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/磅 | 54.62 ...
油脂:原油冲高回落,油脂涨势放缓
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 11:34
油脂:原油冲高回落 油脂涨势放缓 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号:F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0018581 表 1:油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SHF | HE | E | 数据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 7972.00 | 7960.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 8446.00 | 8436.00 | 10.00 | 0.12% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 9583.00 | 9505.00 | 78.00 | 0.82% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1070.00 | 1068.50 | 1.50 | 0.14% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/磅 | 55.11 ...
油脂日报:国际冲突加剧,油脂震荡偏强-20250617
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the intensification of international conflicts and changes in supply - demand factors, the prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are oscillating strongly. The macro - level international conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the prices of vegetable oils. On the supply - demand side, changes in the US biodiesel policy, the unexpected inventory build - up in the MPOB report, and the increase in Indian imports have all contributed to the price increase of oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8436.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 296 yuan or 3.64%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7960.00 yuan/ton, up 174.00 yuan or 2.23%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9505.00 yuan/ton, up 195.00 yuan or 2.09% [1] - Spot prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8700.00 yuan/ton, up 220.00 yuan or 2.59%. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8200.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.99%. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan or 2.10% [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 84.7 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.06 million tons or 9.66% [2] - As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 40.96 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons or 11.41% [2] - As of June 16, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 590.592 million tons, a decrease of 5.088 million tons from June 9 [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Macro - level**: The Israeli air - strike on Iranian targets last Thursday led to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. International oil prices soared by more than 9%, driving up the prices of vegetable oils. If the conflict spreads to key energy infrastructure or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will have a major impact on the global energy supply chain [3] - **Supply - demand level**: - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending of 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel in 2026, higher than the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 and exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil prices [3] - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report showed less - than - expected inventory build - up. India's reduction of import tariffs on crude palm oil improved import profits, increased purchases, and boosted international market prices. India's edible oil inventory is at a multi - year low, and the relatively low price of international palm oil has prompted Indian refineries to increase purchases [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: The strong operation of ICE rapeseed has increased the cost of imported rapeseed in China. With the decline in crushing profits, domestic oil mills are adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Rapeseed arrivals are expected to decrease in the coming months, and the current low inventory of rapeseed has led to low overall operation rates of oil mills, resulting in a firm spot price of rapeseed oil [3]
油脂:能源恐慌叠加生柴利好,油脂集体大涨
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 12:57
油脂:能源恐慌叠加生柴利好 油脂集体大涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号:F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0018581 表 1:油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 뷰 | E | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 7960.00 | 7786.00 | 174.00 | 2.23% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 8436.00 | 8140.00 | 296.00 | 3.64% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 9505.00 | 9310.00 | 195.00 | 2.09% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1068.50 | 1043.00 | 25.50 | 2.44% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/磅 | 5 ...
商品日报(6月16日):原油及棕榈油大涨 集运欧线盘中回落
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 10:19
原油惯性收涨超5% 棕榈油领衔植物油大涨 上周五以色列突袭伊朗引发地缘局势升温,推动原油价格大幅飙升。周一(6月16日),在周末以伊双方互袭对方能源设施的背景下,国际油价继续惯性跳 涨,这驱动国内SC原油延续强势,终盘以超5.4%的涨幅继续领涨商品市场。尽管此前市场普遍对原油需求端疲软和欧佩克+增产带来的供需失衡感到担忧, 但在地缘冲突升级的大背景下,对供应受干扰的担忧占据主导,这成为油价重新回到70美元上方的主要驱动。分析机构普遍认为,若以色列和伊朗的冲突持 续并危及霍尔木兹海峡的原油运输,国际油价或再度冲高到每桶100美元上方。在地缘因素占据主导的背景下,油价整体的偏强态势仍将延续。 受原油价格继续高位坚挺带动,高低硫燃料油、甲醇、液化气等主要能化品种延续强势,收盘涨幅多在2%乃至3%以上。 新华财经北京6月16日电(郭洲洋、吴郑思)国内商品期货市场6月16日涨多跌少,其中SC原油主力合约涨超5%;棕榈油、甲醇、尿素、高硫燃油、原木主 力合约涨超3%;液化气、焦煤、豆油、锰硅、BR橡胶、菜油、硅铁主力合约涨超2%。下跌品种方面,集运欧线主力合约跌超4%;氧化铝、碳酸锂、沪锌 主力合约跌超0.5%。 截至1 ...
正信期货棕榈油周报20250616:美生柴及地缘扰动再起,油脂板块整体转强-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:41
上周CBOT豆油涨停收官;内盘三大油脂先抑后扬,均创逾一个半月高点。 PPT模板:www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材:www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景:www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表:www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载:www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程: www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载:www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载:www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载:www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载:www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛:www.1ppt.cn PPT课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/yin gyu/ 美术课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/meis hu/ 科学课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/kex ...
首个中马“一带一路”联合实验室在广州启动
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the China-Malaysia joint laboratory for oil processing and safety marks a significant collaboration under the Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at advancing key technologies in the oil industry and promoting sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Laboratory Overview - The joint laboratory is the first of its kind between China and Malaysia, co-established by Jinan University and Universiti Putra Malaysia, serving as a national-level technology innovation platform [1]. - The laboratory focuses on four main research areas: oil bio-processing and safety, extraction of bioactive lipid molecules and their health effects, applications of healthy oils and functional foods, and the sustainability of the palm oil supply chain [1]. Group 2: Research Directions and Goals - The laboratory aims to transform palm oil from Malaysia into more nutritious and healthy glycerol diesters, representing the future of healthy oils, through methods like bio-processing and synthetic biology [1]. - Research will also focus on extracting active components such as beta-carotene from structural lipids to study their anti-inflammatory, anti-osteoporosis, and anti-cancer mechanisms, with plans to develop functional products [1]. - Collaboration with the School of Pharmacy at Jinan University will explore lipid bio-molecules from Malaysian medicinal plants [1]. Group 3: Bilateral Trade Context - By 2025, China and Malaysia will celebrate the 51st anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 12th anniversary of their comprehensive strategic partnership [2]. - China imports approximately 28 million tons of oils annually, while Malaysia exports about 15 million tons of palm oil, indicating a highly complementary supply-demand structure between the two countries [2].
油脂日报:棕榈油产量增加,油脂承压下跌-20250612
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:26
油脂日报 | 2025-06-12 棕榈油产量增加,油脂承压下跌 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7970.00元/吨,环比变化-146元,幅度-1.80%;昨日收盘豆油2509合约7694.00 元/吨,环比变化-64.00元,幅度-0.82%;昨日收盘菜油2509合约9149.00元/吨,环比变化-39.00元,幅度-0.42%。现 货方面,广东地区棕榈油现货价8310.00元/吨,环比变化-180.00元,幅度-2.12%,现货基差P09+340.00,环比变化 -34.00元;天津地区一级豆油现货价格7900.00元/吨,环比变化-70.00元/吨,幅度-0.88%,现货基差Y09+206.00, 环比变化-6.00元;江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9350.00元/吨,环比变化-40.00元,幅度-0.43%,现货基差OI09+201.00, 环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总:MPOB报告显示,5月底马来西亚棕榈油库存为199万吨,连续第三个月增长,为2024年9月以 来的最高库存,主要因为棕榈油产量持续增长,抵消了出口前景的影响。据外媒报道,阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公 布的数 ...
油脂日报:宏观题材交错,油脂价格震荡-20250611
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:13
油脂日报 | 2025-06-11 宏观题材交错,油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8116.00元/吨,环比变化-66元,幅度-0.81%;昨日收盘豆油2509合约7758.00 元/吨,环比变化-8.00元,幅度-0.10%;昨日收盘菜油2509合约9188.00元/吨,环比变化+6.00元,幅度+0.07%。现 货方面,广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨,环比变化-60.00元,幅度-0.70%,现货基差P09+374.00,环比变化 +6.00元;天津地区一级豆油现货价格7970.00元/吨,环比变化+0.00元/吨,幅度+0.00%,现货基差Y09+212.00,环 比变化+8.00元;江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9390.00元/吨,环比变化+10.00元,幅度+0.11%,现货基差OI09+202.00, 环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总:巴西植物油行业协会(Abiove):维持巴西2024/25年度大豆产量预测为1.697亿吨;维持本年 度大豆压榨量5750万吨的预测。据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示,预计马来西亚6月1-10日棕榈油出口量为285 ...