本文字数：2337，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 今年二季度，受到美国关税政策变化的影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，但我国经济展现出了较强的 韧性，在短期放缓后迅速回稳。 国家统计局6月30日发布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 连续两个月回升，制造业景气水平继续改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百 分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，6月份PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效 果继续显现。订单类指数回升反映扩大内需政策效果有所显现；生产指数、采购量指数上升反映企业 生产经营活动有回暖趋势。同时应注意到PMI指数仍处荣枯线下，生产经营活动预期指数仍在下降， 反映需求不足的企业占比仍在扩大，市场引导的需求收缩对制造业生产投资的制约仍然突出。 2025.06. 30 张立群强调，当前宏观经济政策逆周期调节与市场引导的需求收缩正处相互角力的关键阶段，必须坚 持不懈持续加大扩内需各项政策力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资力度，扩大投资规模，有效 有力带动制造业企业订单显著增加，带动制造业生产投资持续活跃。 产需指 ...

在市场需求和企业原材料采购活动同步扩张的支撑下，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数均较上月明显回升。制造业市场价格总体 水平有所改善。从不同规模企业看，制造业大中型企业景气度均有所提高，特别是大型企业扩张势头有所加快，对制造业整体支撑作用显著。 央视网消息：国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会6月30日联合发布的数据显示，6月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上 月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 6月份制造业采购经理指数升至49.7%，在调查的21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造业景气面有所扩大。从产需两端 看，生产指数和新订单指数分别为51%和50.2%，比上月上升0.3和0.4个百分点，新出口订单指数也连续2个月上升。制造业生产活动加快，市 场需求有所改善。在产需回升的带动下，企业采购意愿也有所增强，采购量指数为50.2%，较上月上升2.6个百分点。 国家统计局服务业调查中心企业景气处处长霍丽慧称："从重点行业来看，装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业的PMI都是连续两个 月位于扩张区间，其中装备制造业的生产指数和新订单指数本月均高于53%，相关行业产需两端还 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI index in June shows a slight recovery, indicating the effectiveness of a series of incremental policies, despite ongoing challenges in demand and production activities [1][4][11]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1]. - The new orders index has returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 0.4 percentage points after two months below 50% [4]. - The production index stands at 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, with a 0.3 percentage point increase from last month [5]. - The procurement volume index has also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points [5]. - Large enterprises show a PMI of 51.2%, indicating accelerated expansion, while medium and small enterprises remain below the critical point at 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [7]. Price Trends - In June, both the purchasing price index and the factory price index have stabilized, with the purchasing price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, reflecting continued expansion, with a 0.2 percentage point increase [11]. - The construction industry shows a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [12]. Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trend in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing external trade [8].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][22]. - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production activities in the manufacturing sector [6][23]. - The new orders index reached 50.2%, rising by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting an improvement in market demand for manufactured goods [7][23]. Group 2: Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, indicating robust performance [4][24]. - Medium-sized enterprises had a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, but still below the critical threshold [4][24]. - Small enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points, indicating weaker performance [4][24]. Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [11][26]. - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities [13][26]. - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability but with some sectors experiencing reduced activity [13][26]. Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [21][27]. - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this comprehensive index, standing at 51.0% and 50.5% respectively [27].

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating significant support for the manufacturing sector, while small enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4] - The construction industry showed a notable increase with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [4] - The business activity expectation index for the non-manufacturing sector was at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service industry enterprises regarding future developments [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an acceleration in overall production and business activities across enterprises [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI output index, standing at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7% in June, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries from the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][3] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [3] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises due to the recovery in production and demand [3] Group 2: Price Index Trends - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index rose to 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, both up by 1.5 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market price levels [3] - The increase in prices was influenced by rising international crude oil prices, particularly affecting the petroleum and coal industries, while the black metal smelting and processing industries saw a decline in price indices due to falling iron ore prices and insufficient terminal demand [3] Group 3: Enterprise Size and Industry Performance - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating significant support for the overall manufacturing sector, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, showing improved sentiment [4] - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries all maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion, with equipment manufacturing showing particularly strong activity with production and new orders indices above 53.0 [4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.1%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while consumer-related sectors experienced a decline in activity [5] - The construction sector's business activity index increased to 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [5] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating an acceleration in overall production and business activities across enterprises [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this increase, standing at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises had a PMI of 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points [4] - The production index was 51.0%, indicating accelerated production activities, and the new orders index was 50.2%, suggesting improved market demand [4][6] Group 2: Employment and Supplier Conditions - The employment index was 47.9%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor decline in employment sentiment within the manufacturing sector [5] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, suggesting that suppliers' delivery times have improved compared to the previous month [6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [10] - The construction industry had a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, while the services industry had a business activity index of 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points [12] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Demand and Pricing - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in market demand [16] - The input prices index was 49.9%, slightly below the critical point, indicating stable input prices for non-manufacturing activities [16] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]

量大面广的中小微企业，是中国经济韧性的重要支撑。 第二十届中国国际中小企业博览会6月27~30日在广州举行。工业和信息化部部长李乐成在开幕致辞中表 示，要加力优化中小企业公平竞争环境，推动建设开放型世界经济，通过消除制度性壁垒、完善市场准入 规则、加强知识产权保护等措施，让中小企业在开放的国际市场中平等获取资源、技术与信息，公平参与 竞争。 李乐成强调，要着力强化中小企业专精特新发展。出台有利政策，支持中小企业聚焦主业、精耕细作，实 现高端化、数字化、绿色化、国际化发展，不断增强创新能力和核心竞争力。引导优质资源向中小企业聚 集，建设更多中小企业特色产业集群。 6月是2025年全国中小企业服务月。当前，从中央到地方正积极部署，围绕市场拓展、融资促进、数字化 转型、技术赋能等多个领域推出系列暖企惠企举措，开展针对性的服务活动，通过精准有力的政策助力中 小企业强信心、稳预期。 2025.06. 29 本文字数：2240，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 中小企业相关指标稳中向好 工信部、国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，今年前5个月，我国中小企业经济运行总体平稳，主要经济指 标保持增长。 前5个月，我国 ...

作 者丨郑玮 编 辑丨周上祺 近日，1—5月国民经济运行数据发布，消费、工业、出口等板块表现受到市场关注。 从数据表现上看，5月消费强势领跑，工业、出口则呈现韧性中放缓趋势。其中，5月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长6.4%，实现今年以来月度最高增速，增幅跑赢出口、投资。与"高歌猛 进"的消费相对的是，5月规上工业增加值、货物出口总额同比增速均有所放缓。 表现亮眼的消费主要受到什么因素驱动？"国补"政策效应能否长期持续？下半年中国出口市场 将呈现何种走势？还有哪些潜在风险需要注意？围绕市场关注议题，21世纪经济报道专访广发 证券首席经济学家郭磊。 郭磊认为，在"两新"政策带动下，目前消费仍处于政策红利期，未来除财政补贴外，促消费政 策在收入端、金融端、社会端等方面也仍然存在很多政策空间，预计下半年"两新"和服务类消 费带动下的消费仍将保持相对活跃状态。 同时，郭磊分析表示，受逆全球化关税政策、建筑业降幅扩大等影响，下半年出口-制造业条 线或将有所放缓，对冲方式包括推动建筑业逆周期，加快基建开工和实物工作量，以及推动消 费和服务业发展，用消费动能部分替代出口动能，以内需的确定性应对外需的不确定性。 （广发证券首席经 ...