12月2日，A股三大指数集体下跌，截至收盘，沪指跌0.42%报3897点，深证成指跌0.68%，创业板指跌0.69%。全市场成交额1.61万亿 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅 现价 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | -0.42% 3897.71 | -16.30 | | 399001 | 深证成指 | -0.68% 13056.70 | -90.02 | | 399006 创业板指 | | -0.69% 3071.15 | -21.35 | 元，较前一交易日缩量2822亿元，逾3700股下跌。 盘面上，福建再推12条惠台利民政策措施，福建板块爆发，平潭发展、睿能科技及福建高速等多股涨停；医药商业、SPD概念走高， 人民同泰、开开实业涨停；另一方面，能源金属概念普跌，天齐锂业领跌；影视院线、光伏设备、贵金属及教育等板块跌幅居前。 具体来看： 福建板块走高，嘉戎技术、招标股份20cm涨停，福建高速、海欣食品、太阳电缆等多股涨停，海峡创新涨超13%，恒锋信息涨超 12%。 消息面上，《福建省有序推进算力基础设施发展若干措施》印发。其中提到，优化算力空 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3897.71 points, down 0.42% with a trading volume of 627.44 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.70 points, down 0.68% with a trading volume of 965.99 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3071.15 points, down 0.69% with a trading volume of 447.30 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance Top Performing Sectors - The pharmaceutical retail sector increased by 2.51%, with a total trading volume of 848.78 million hands and a net inflow of 0.95 billion yuan, comprising 24 gainers and 8 losers [2] - The road and railway transportation sector rose by 1.24%, with a trading volume of 884.52 million hands and a net inflow of 0.85 billion yuan, comprising 27 gainers and 2 losers [2] - The agriculture and forestry sector saw an increase of 1.18%, with a trading volume of 1116.29 million hands and a net inflow of 4.40 billion yuan, comprising 23 gainers and 6 losers [2] Underperforming Sectors - The energy metals sector declined by 2.70%, with a trading volume of 318.45 million hands and a net outflow of 8.43 billion yuan, comprising 0 gainers and 13 losers [2] - The medical services sector fell by 1.72%, with a trading volume of 663.11 million hands and a net outflow of 18.58 billion yuan, comprising 6 gainers and 47 losers [2] - The battery sector decreased by 1.58%, with a trading volume of 1906.69 million hands and a net outflow of 41.32 billion yuan, comprising 14 gainers and 87 losers [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment after a six-day rally, with a notable decline in individual stocks, indicating potential internal structural issues rather than external risk factors [1][2] - A report from Morgan Stanley, referred to as "吹哨人," suggests that 2026 earnings may fall below market consensus expectations, which could be influencing market sentiment [1][3] - Despite the bearish outlook from Morgan Stanley, some foreign analysts remain optimistic about the A-share market, predicting a rebound in 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - The market's rebound momentum weakened on December 2, with over 80 sectors, including home appliance components and energy metals, experiencing declines of over 1% [2] - The report from Morgan Stanley indicates a median growth expectation for earnings of about 6-7%, significantly lower than the market consensus of 15% [3] - Analysts from Daiwa Bank express optimism for sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, predicting that domestic demand will play a larger role in driving growth in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The industry is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a recovery in macro expectations following the potential Geneva Agreement between China and the U.S. in 2025, leading to an upward cycle in non-ferrous metal prices and industry performance [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - The price and performance of non-ferrous metals are anticipated to rise due to supply chain disruptions and liquidity easing, establishing a new upward cycle [1] - Copper supply constraints continue, with limited new projects and effective production disruptions, while demand from traditional sectors eases and new sectors like renewable energy and data centers emerge [1] - The price of copper is expected to rise as liquidity improves with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Precious Metals - A bullish trend for gold is likely to continue, driven by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, which will increase global gold ETF purchases [1] - The growing U.S. debt and concerns over credit issues are expected to lead to increased gold purchases by central banks and private investors, supporting mid-term price increases [1] Energy Metals - The price of cobalt is expected to rise due to supply constraints from Congo's export quota management and limited new supply from Indonesia, alongside increasing demand from electric vehicles and consumer electronics [1] - The supply-demand gap for cobalt is projected to widen from 2025 to 2026, indicating a clear upward trend in prices [1] Rare Metals - The strategic value of rare earth metals is increasing, with a favorable supply-demand balance due to stable traditional demand and emerging new demands [2] - Domestic supply controls are strengthening, enhancing industry concentration and monopolistic positions, which is likely to push prices upward and improve profitability for magnetic material companies [2] Investment Strategy - Focus on three areas: 1) Continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will drive global gold ETF purchases, benefiting gold prices [3] 2) Ongoing copper supply shortages and new demand from AI data centers will support copper price increases [3] 3) Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply restrictions from Congo and depleting domestic inventories [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the morning session, with all three major indices falling, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3892.55 points, down 0.55% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13045.95 points, down 0.77% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3065.15 points, down 0.88% [1] Sector Performance Gaining Sectors - Pharmaceutical Commerce: Increased by 1.80%, with a total trading volume of 630.14 million hands and a total transaction amount of 6.945 billion [2] - Planting and Forestry: Increased by 0.95%, with a total trading volume of 774.78 million hands and a total transaction amount of 7.047 billion [2] - Tourism and Hotels: Increased by 0.75%, with a total trading volume of 568.34 million hands and a total transaction amount of 5.736 billion [2] Declining Sectors - Education: Decreased by 1.73%, with a total trading volume of 248.33 million hands and a total transaction amount of 2.214 billion [2] - Energy Metals: Decreased by 1.71%, with a total trading volume of 205.39 million hands and a total transaction amount of 8.229 billion [2] - Gaming: Decreased by 1.53%, with a total trading volume of 537.75 million hands and a total transaction amount of 7.834 billion [2]

12月的第一天，A股主要指数高开，上证指数收涨0.65%报3914.01点，全天近3400只个股上涨，76只个 股涨停。贵金属、能源设备、通信设备、航天军工等板块涨幅领先，教育、环保、多元金融等板块微 跌。 新京报贝壳财经记者注意到，日前，多家券商率先发声，认为2026年"春季躁动"行情有望提前至今年12 月启动，并称投资者可提前布局。 多重利好，"躁动行情"临近 临近年底，多家券商在最新的策略报告中频繁提及"春季躁动"这一关键词。 所谓"春季躁动"，是指A股在岁末年初常出现的季节上涨行情，通常表现为大盘在每年一季度会迎来一 轮上涨。 多家券商研判，2026年的"春季躁动"可能提前到来。其中，华泰证券指出，2025年12月有望迎来基本面 预期及宏观流动性改善、政策及产业主题催化以及筹码压力消化的先后落地，春季躁动或提前启动。 广发证券分析称，进入12月，基本面定价的有效性会逐步加强。当上市公司盈利向上且没有明显事件冲 击时，大概率有"春季躁动"；若同时有流动性配合，则大概率出现强"春季躁动"。展望2026年，上市公 司盈利预计边际改善、内部政策与流动性偏正面、外部因素亦呈中性偏正面，"春季躁动"值得期待。 W ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | 62.92 | 3.52% | 30.88万 | | 19.60亿 | | 600711 | 盛屯矿业 | 12.58 | 1.94% | 208.04万 | | 26.48亿 | | 301219 | 腾远钻业 | 62.61 | 1.29% | 6.73万 | | 4.22亿 | | 605376 | 博迁新材 | 49.56 | 0.59% | 2.85万 | | 1.42亿 | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 62.11 | 0.45% | 58.38万 | | 36.62亿 | | 300618 | 塞锐钻业 | 44.35 | 0.34% | 8.90万 | | 3.98亿 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 62.55 | 0.00% | 52.12万 | | 32.78亿 | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | 54.62 | -0.75% | 53.22万 | | 29.34 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis highlights the positive outlook for precious metals, particularly silver and gold, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and macroeconomic conditions, while also emphasizing the potential for industrial metals like copper and aluminum due to similar monetary policy shifts [2][3]. Precious Metals - The weakening US dollar and overall recovery in risk assets have led to a significant rise in precious metals, with silver leading the charge, breaking historical highs due to futures market dynamics [2]. - The expectation of continued economic recession in the US supports the view that interest rates will remain low, which is favorable for gold prices, with a potential breakout above previous highs anticipated [2]. - The analysis suggests a shift in stock selection strategy from current earnings to future reserves valuation for gold and silver stocks, recommending specific companies such as Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold [2]. Industrial Metals - Enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts have positively impacted copper and aluminum prices, with recent price increases noted (LME copper up 3.7%, aluminum up 2%) [3]. - The supply dynamics for copper and aluminum are highlighted, with copper inventories increasing while aluminum inventories are decreasing, indicating a mixed supply outlook [3]. - The analysis indicates that the copper and aluminum sectors are well-positioned for both short-term gains and long-term value appreciation, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [3]. Energy and Strategic Metals - The lithium market is expected to see a supply turning point by 2026, with increasing demand from domestic power and energy storage sectors, while supply growth is anticipated to slow down [4]. - The rare earth sector is poised for a recovery, with government policies supporting the industry and improving demand dynamics, particularly in applications like robotics [5]. - The cobalt market is projected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with price increases expected due to supply constraints, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Summary of Recommendations - Companies to watch in the copper sector include Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining, while aluminum companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Hongqiao Group are highlighted for their growth potential [3][5]. - In the lithium space, companies such as Tianhua New Energy and Ganfeng Lithium are recommended due to their strategic positioning in the market [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with significant support at 3856 points for the Shanghai Composite Index. Key sectors such as energy metals, automotive, optical electronics, and chemical products performed well, while traditional sectors like traditional Chinese medicine, banking, gaming, and insurance lagged behind [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are currently at 15.91 times and 47.73 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][13]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 15,979 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][13]. - The market is expected to stabilize around the 4000-point mark for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a continued rebalancing of market styles anticipated, allowing for alternating performances between cyclical and technology sectors. Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid impulsive trading [3][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On November 28, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.70% [7][8]. - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, particularly in sectors like energy metals, shipbuilding, fertilizers, and cement, while sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, banking, and gaming faced declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the upcoming important meeting, which will set the economic policy for the next year, could act as a catalyst for a new market rally. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors such as automotive, energy metals, optical electronics, and power grid equipment for short-term investment opportunities [3][13].

铜板块：2025年前三季度铜板块收入增速较去年同期回正，归母净利润增速改善明显。收入端来看， 2025年前三季度铜板块实现营收14249.67亿元，同比增长5.01%，增速虽较2024年全年下降但较2024年 同期小幅回升;利润端来看，2025年前三季度铜板块实现归母净利润690.05亿元，同比增长46.17%，增 速较2024全年及2024年同期分别提升11.38pct和18.36pct。2025年前三季度铜板块盈利能力回升，毛利率 及净利率分别较去年同期提升2.74pct和1.82pct至10.42%和5.84%;资本支出同比大幅收缩14.92%。 贵金属板块：2025年前三季度贵金属板块营收及利润同比高增长，增速边际大幅提升。收入端来看， 2025年前三季度贵金属板块实现营收2,995.43亿元，同比增长35.02%，较2024年全年和2024年同期分别 提升11.47pct和9.53pct;利润端来看，2025年前三季度贵金属板块实现归母净利润147.26亿元，同比增长 62.64%，增速较2024全年及2024年同期分别大幅提升14.4pct和16.45pct，板块收入及净利润大幅增长主 要得益于金 ...