9 月城投债净偿还同比收窄 新增 35 家主体声明市场化 —— 2025 年 9 月城投债发行审批月度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 | [李一爽 Table_FirstA 固定uthor 收益]首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com | | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524080002 | | 联系电话：+86 15850662789 | | 邮 箱：zhujinbao@cindasc.com | Xyue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编 ...

Core Insights - The report analyzes the changes in local government financing platforms in the context of a nearly one-year anniversary of the debt replacement policy, highlighting the increase in local government debt limits and the implications for financing resources [3]. Group 1: Local Government Financing - In November 2024, the National People's Congress approved a resolution to increase the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan to replace hidden debts, adding to the 8 trillion yuan allocated annually from new local government bonds for five years, resulting in a total increase of 10 trillion yuan in debt resources for local governments [3]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The report provides a performance overview of various industries, with non-ferrous metals leading with a 66.3% increase over the past year, followed by power equipment at 50.1% and steel at 25.0% [1]. - Conversely, the media and social services sectors showed declines of -7.8% and -6.9% respectively over the same period [1]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Ankerui (300286.SZ) is positioned as a leader in microgrid energy management, with projected net profits of 250 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 420 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 45%, 31%, and 30% respectively [5]. - Jiamaojiu (09922.HK) is expected to optimize its store count and improve performance through a new store model, with projected revenues of 5.668 billion yuan, 6.063 billion yuan, and 6.331 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [6]. - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) reported a 100.52% increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with expectations of continued growth in net profits of 4.240 billion yuan, 5.761 billion yuan, and 6.914 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [8].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights three new variables driving the strong rise in gold prices during the National Day holiday in 2025, including concerns over U.S. fiscal credit due to government shutdown, political changes in Japan and France affecting currency credibility, and significant inflows into gold ETFs indicating a shift in risk appetite from central banks to private investors [2]. - The manufacturing PMI has shown a continuous recovery for two months, primarily due to the end of high-temperature disruptions, leading to increased production activities and rising indices for procurement, inventory, and employment [3]. - The report indicates that while some sectors show improvement, such as industrial profits and PPI narrowing declines, overall corporate earnings remain unstable, with a potential slight recovery in Q4 driven by policy support [4]. Group 2: Industry Research - OpenAI's launch of Sora2 and its Apps SDK is expected to reshape the AI application landscape, emphasizing that AI enhances traditional SaaS rather than replacing it, which may alleviate market pessimism [8]. - In the real estate sector, the top 100 property companies reported a 21% month-on-month increase in sales for September, with notable performers including China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [9]. - The report on non-ferrous metals indicates that profitability in the processing and smelting sector is expected to recover, with a focus on high-end product innovation and resource utilization, particularly in copper and lithium [10]. Group 3: Company Research - The report on Jiufeng Energy discusses its investment in a coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, highlighting the company's integrated industry chain and strong growth potential, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 1.732 billion, 1.979 billion, and 2.245 billion yuan respectively [11]. - China National Petroleum Corporation is noted for its commitment to long-term growth and reform, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 of 166.1 billion, 171.2 billion, and 175.7 billion yuan, maintaining a buy rating for both A and H shares [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing popularity of dim sum bonds among Chinese internet giants like Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba, driven by cost advantages and policy support, as they seek to expand their financing options in the offshore RMB market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The issuance of dim sum bonds has transitioned from rapid expansion to a phase of stable growth, with a cumulative issuance of 771.4 billion RMB as of September 18 this year [1][4]. - The market is experiencing structural changes, with a diversification of issuers and an increase in the types of investment institutions involved, enhancing market depth and breadth [1][4]. Group 2: Major Issuers - Tencent issued three RMB bonds totaling 9 billion RMB on September 23, marking its first foray into the dim sum bond market [2]. - Baidu successfully issued 4.4 billion RMB in dim sum bonds on September 15, representing its second issuance this year [2]. - Alibaba previously issued 17 billion RMB in dim sum bonds in November last year and announced a 3.2 billion USD zero-coupon convertible bond issuance in September, with 80% of the funds allocated for cloud infrastructure and technology upgrades [2]. Group 3: Reasons for Preference - The primary reasons for the preference for dim sum bonds among internet companies include lower financing costs and supportive policies, as these companies enter a peak capital expenditure phase [3][5]. - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority have announced measures to expand the "Bond Connect" program, enhancing the attractiveness of offshore RMB bonds for companies with significant overseas financing needs [3][7]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of dim sum bonds is becoming more diversified, with significant contributions from various industries, while the existing stock remains concentrated in the banking and local government financing sectors [4][5]. - The demand for dim sum bonds is supported by low domestic interest rates and expanded cross-border investment channels, leading to increased interest from domestic institutions [6][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The dim sum bond market is expected to continue evolving, with potential for increased issuance from a wider range of issuers and improved structural diversity [7]. - The expansion of QDII quotas and the enhancement of the "Southbound Bond Connect" program are anticipated to boost demand for dim sum bonds, improving market liquidity [7][8].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the context of preventing and resolving debt risks, the report analyzes the continuous overdue situation of bonds - issuing urban investment enterprise bills from January to July 2025, providing data support and decision - making references for the dynamic assessment of urban investment industry debt risks [4] - From January to July 2025, the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue and the frequency of overdue increased year - on - year. AA - rated and district - county - level platforms are still the main overdue groups, and the risk differentiation effect of administrative levels and credit ratings is further strengthened. Risks are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, Guizhou and other provinces. Overdue entities face significant short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure, and some have experienced non - standard financing defaults. Attention should be paid to the cross - default risks caused by credit risk transmission [23] Group 3: Summary by Catalog I. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprise Bill Overdue (1) Changes in the Number of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue increased year - on - year, reflecting the low priority of bill payment when enterprise liquidity pressure increases. These enterprises were included in the continuous bill overdue list 376 times, a 33.81% increase year - on - year, involving 60 enterprises, a 15.38% increase year - on - year. The number of such enterprises remained relatively stable from January to July 2025, with the number of entities on the list each month ranging from 53 to 55, and the number of new entities each month being 2, 2, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1 respectively [5] (2) Credit Rating of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with bill overdue were mainly AA - rated, and the proportion increased. AA - rated enterprises accounted for 63.33% (38 enterprises, a 15.15% increase year - on - year), followed by AA + - rated enterprises, accounting for 21.67% (13 enterprises, unchanged year - on - year) [8] (3) Administrative Level of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, the proportion of district - county - level urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue increased year - on - year, and the administrative level further declined. Among them, district - county - level platforms accounted for 63.33% (38 enterprises), prefecture - level platforms accounted for 28.33% (17 enterprises), with no provincial platforms [11] (4) Geographical Distribution of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, the geographical distribution of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with continuous bill overdue was highly concentrated, mainly in Shandong, Yunnan, Henan, and Guizhou. The frequent occurrence of bill overdue in these regions may have a negative impact on the financing environment and increase the liquidity pressure of urban investment entities in the region. In 2025, 11 provinces were involved in bill overdue risks, with Jilin Province newly added compared to the same period last year, and Gansu and Inner Mongolia removed. Shandong had the largest number of such enterprises (23, accounting for 38.33%), followed by Yunnan (11), Henan (8), and Guizhou (7). In terms of the proportion of the number of enterprises with bill overdue to the total number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in each province, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Shandong ranked in the top three [15] (5) Outstanding Bonds of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities with Continuous Bill Overdue - From January to July 2025, the concentrated maturity of outstanding bonds of urban investment entities with continuous bill overdue and insufficient financing ability formed a "scissors gap", and they faced significant short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure. Non - standard financing products may be the weak link for risk exposure, and attention should be paid to cross - default risks caused by credit risk transmission. As of September 15, 2025, the total outstanding bond balance of 60 bond - issuing urban investment entities with continuous bill overdue from January to July 2025 was 126.999 billion yuan. Among them, corporate bonds accounted for 52.86% (67.134 billion yuan), medium - term notes accounted for 19.06% (24.208 billion yuan), private placement notes accounted for 17.49% (22.213 billion yuan), and short - term and ultra - short - term financing bonds accounted for 10.59% (13.444 billion yuan). In terms of maturity distribution, 39.53% (50.202 billion yuan) of the outstanding bonds will mature within 1 year, and 24.91% (31.637 billion yuan) will mature within 1 - 3 years [17] - The proportion of short - term bond maturity of overdue entities is nearly 40% (compared with 23.09% for non - overdue entities), and they face significant short - term concentrated debt repayment pressure. In 2024, the total net cash flow from financing activities of these 60 entities was - 13.356 billion yuan, with an average of - 223 million yuan, while the average for non - overdue entities was 817 million yuan, reflecting the difficult financing situation of overdue entities. Although the net cash outflow from financing activities of these 60 entities from January to July 2025 decreased significantly compared to the same period in 2024, it was still in a net outflow state, indicating that they still faced financing contraction pressure [18][21] - As of the end of August 2025, 10 of the 60 entities with continuous bill overdue had defaulted on non - standard financing. All of them had continuous bill overdue before 2025, and they were all district - county - level entities. Among them, 8 were AA - rated and 2 were AA + - rated. Geographically, 5 were in Shandong, 2 in Yunnan, 2 in Henan, and 1 in Guizhou. Under the triple pressure of "concentrated maturity pressure of outstanding bonds + exhausted financing cash flow + non - standard default of some entities", cross - default risks should be noted [22]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit bond market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with most credit bond yields rising and credit spreads showing mixed performance, particularly in the short-end segment [10][21] - It is suggested to focus on the 2-3 year credit bonds for yield opportunities, as their spreads are higher than the lowest points in 2024 and lower than the average spread since 2024, indicating potential for value [12][21] - The report highlights that the financial bonds have shown some recovery after significant adjustments, but the sentiment remains cautious with limited room for bullish positions [10][21] Group 2 - Key policies include the announcement of a loan from Shenzhen Metro Group to Vanke for debt repayment, totaling up to 2.064 billion yuan, with cumulative loans since 2025 reaching 25.941 billion yuan [3][14] - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1.48198 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with tax revenue slightly up by 0.02% [15][20] - The central bank is guiding commercial banks to provide loans to state-owned enterprises and financing platforms to settle overdue accounts, with a total debt scale of approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [4][16] Group 3 - The report notes that the secondary market for credit bonds is active, with a significant increase in trading volume observed [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the context of the upcoming policy changes and market conditions [10][21] - The report also mentions that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has optimized the bond repurchase business to stabilize market prices, which may lead to a narrowing of spreads for lower-rated bonds [4][13]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of urban investment bonds (城投债) in August 2025 increased by 44.1 billion to 308 billion, but decreased by 37.8 billion year-on-year, indicating a mixed trend in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance and Financing - The total issuance of urban investment bonds from January to August 2025 reached 2.35 trillion, a year-on-year decline of 16.2%, with net financing at -344.7 billion, down 100.5 billion year-on-year [2][9]. - As of the end of August, the number of newly issued urban investment bond entities reached 179, surpassing the total of 131 for the entire year of 2024 [1][6]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - In August, 11 provinces had net financing from urban investment bonds, while 16 provinces had net repayments, and 4 provinces had no new issuance or repayments [4][6]. - The largest net financing province in August was Shaanxi, with 4.4 billion, followed by Hubei, Guangdong, Shandong, and Chongqing, each between 2 billion and 3 billion [4]. Group 3: Secondary Market Trends - In the secondary market, urban investment bond yields remained stable, with high-grade bonds in Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, and Chongqing showing upward trends in yields [7][8]. - The liquidity of medium to long-term high-rated urban investment bonds has significantly decreased, while the number of high-grade short-term bonds has increased [8]. Group 4: Offshore Market Performance - In the offshore market, 18 urban investment bonds were issued, a year-on-year decrease of 48.6%, with a total issuance scale of approximately 19.2 billion, down 34.4% year-on-year [8][9]. - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds totaled 7.376 billion, with an average coupon rate of 4.35%, while USD bonds totaled 1.593 billion with an average coupon rate of 5.34% [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2025, with credit bonds offering high coupon advantages in a low-interest environment [9]. - The ongoing debt reduction policies and the transformation of urban investment platforms are anticipated to alleviate short-term credit risks, suggesting potential investment opportunities in 2-3 year urban investment bonds [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the bond market correction, seize the credit coupon allocation opportunities, and the strategy of "short - to medium - term coupon + moderate credit spread widening" has high certainty. The coupon income - to - risk ratio of short - to medium - term (within 3 years) credit bonds has significantly improved, while long - term (over 5 years) credit bonds face triple pressures and weak trading opportunities [1][4][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Urban Investment Bonds: There is Still a Large Space for Coupon Asset Mining - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding urban investment bonds was about 15.48 trillion yuan, with public urban investment bonds accounting for 53%. The scale of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 4.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 28.54% of the total [4][8]. - In public urban investment bonds, provinces like Qinghai, Guizhou, Liaoning, Yunnan, and Shaanxi have high weighted average valuation yields. In private urban investment bonds, Guizhou, Qinghai, and Yunnan have weighted average valuation yields above 2.9% [8][9]. - Based on the distribution of public urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3%, different regions are divided into four categories according to the proportion of high - valuation bonds. From the perspective of the coupon strategy, different regions are recommended for different durations [10][11][12]. 2. Financial Bonds: Focus on Bank Subordinated Bonds and Insurance Perpetual Bonds - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding financial bonds was about 15.18 trillion yuan. The scale of financial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 1.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 11% of the total [4][18]. - Bank subordinated bonds and insurance perpetual bonds are recommended. High - valuation bonds in bank secondary capital bonds are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA/AA - and over - 5 - year AAA/AAA - varieties; in bank perpetual bonds, they are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA and within - 5 - year AA - varieties; in insurance perpetual bonds, they are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA varieties [18][19]. 3. Industrial Bonds: The Utilities and Transportation Sectors Can Try Longer Durations - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding non - default industrial bonds was about 13.99 trillion yuan. The scale of industrial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 2.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 20.36% of the total [4][22]. - Industries such as transportation, utilities, non - bank finance, comprehensive, real estate, and building decoration have a bond stock scale of over one trillion yuan. Real estate and non - bank finance industries have relatively high average valuation yields. In terms of liquidity, industries such as commerce and retail, transportation, coal, and utilities are more active [22]. - Real estate has the highest proportion and largest absolute scale of high - valuation bonds, mainly concentrated in within - 3 - year AA/AA(2) varieties. Long - term (over 7 years) high - valuation industrial bonds are mainly concentrated in AAA+/AAA/AAA - grades, with more stocks in industries such as comprehensive, utilities, and transportation [22]. 4. Credit Bond Selection Strategy: Focus on the Value of Short - to Medium - Term Coupons after the Correction - After the market correction, the yield of some credit bonds has fallen to a more attractive range. The coupon income - to - risk ratio of short - to medium - term (within 3 years) varieties has significantly improved, and the "short - to medium - term coupon + moderate credit spread widening" strategy has high certainty [30]. - Long - term (over 5 years) credit bonds face triple pressures of "low trading volume, weak liquidity, and concentrated disturbing factors", and the market sentiment is cautious. Some credit bonds with a remaining term of 1 - 3 years/3 - 5 years and a valuation greater than 2.3% are selected for investors' reference [30][31].

Core Insights - The Hangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group, in collaboration with Zhizhu Huazhang Technology, launched the first phase of the AI industrial model project, showcasing several national firsts in AI applications for urban management [5][6][12] - The project aims to enhance operational efficiency and service levels in urban infrastructure management, aligning with national strategies for AI integration and urban development [5][12] Group 1: Project Overview - The AI industrial model project features a "1+1+3+3" architecture, including an AI operation center and a core business segment focused on public transportation [6][7] - The project has developed over 30 specialized intelligent agents and integrated capabilities across 26 existing business systems [6][7] Group 2: Key Applications - In public transportation, the AI model has improved passenger flow recognition accuracy to 93% and enhanced operational efficiency by over 30% through automated scheduling [8][10] - The AI flood prevention system successfully predicted and managed flood risks, demonstrating its capability to provide timely alerts and responses [9][10] Group 3: Future Directions - The project aims to evolve into a comprehensive "industry model + intelligent agent matrix," focusing on continuous optimization and system iteration [13] - Future expansions will include smart water management and energy solutions, contributing to the development of a more intelligent and resilient urban operation model [13][14]

通讯员 俞璐 谭婧 记者 严佳炜 精准识别公交"下客"客流、内涝风险提前24小时动态预测、巡检车辆识别路面病害……这些曾经城市治 理中的难题如今有了"杭州解法"。 9月15日，由杭州市城市建设投资集团有限公司（以下简称"杭州城投"）和清华技术成果转化的智谱华 章科技股份有限公司（以下简称"智谱"）联手打造的杭州城投人工智能产业大模型项目（一期）发布建 设成果，多个大模型及智能体全国首次亮相，包括全国首个公交大模型、全国首个路桥养护多模态大模 型、全国首个AutoGLM防汛智能体、全国首个自主学习清运调度智能体。 "此次与智谱合作，成功落地杭州城投产业大模型项目，不仅是我们贯彻落实国家'人工智能+'行动和 省、市'因地制宜发展新质生产力'战略部署的重要举措，更是积极响应中央城市工作会议精神，助力城 市内涵式发展的有效探索。"杭州城投党委书记、董事长李红良在发布会上指出，该项目深度挖掘杭州 城投丰富的应用场景和优质的数据资源，聚焦城市交通、公共安全、设施运维、清运调度等核心业务， 借助大模型强大的数智能力，全面提升运营效率和服务水平。 释放数据资源价值 杭州城投有了"AI大脑" 作为杭州城市建设和民生服务的主力军 ...