调节方法: 调节方法:1、前期差错更 3、首期美错更正 作为城市基础设施建设的主力军，城投平台长期承担着城市开发、基建投资等重任。然而近年来， 35 号文分类监管、47号文债务管控 等政策持续落地，叠加 "335" 指标 等最新要求，城建类业务收缩与债 务压力不断 倒逼着城投产业加速转型 。 在此背景下，城投产业如何突破政策红线、理顺转型路径？我们梳理了一些城 投产业转型实操中的首 发关注细节 分享给大家—— 01 公司债"355"指标下， 政府补贴应关注哪些细节？ √ 指标要求:报告期内,政府补贴占净利润的比重不超过50% | 所有者权益合计 | -15,000.00 | | --- | --- | | 负债及权益小计 | -20,000.00 | | 其他收益 | -20,000.00 | | 所得税费用 | -5,000.00 | | MANS A A B A 1 2 1 | 17 000 00 | | 受影响的报表项目名称 | 早位: 月元 影响 2022 年报表金额 | | --- | --- | | 其他应收款-原值 | -20.000.00 | | 坏账准备-其他应收款 | | | 其他应收款- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively assesses the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprises in 2024 from three dimensions: the profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity. Overall, the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprise - class public bond issuers has increased, with significant differences at the enterprise, industry, and regional levels [3][6][8]. - At the enterprise level, in 2024, although the financial flexibility of enterprises has marginally improved, overall profitability has continued to weaken, short - term liquidity is under pressure, and the liquidity risk has further increased, with intensified pressure on tail enterprises [6]. - At the industry level, in 2024, against the backdrop of shrinking terminal demand and continuous pressure on the entire real - estate chain, liquidity risks have significantly accumulated in industries related to the upstream and downstream of real estate and urban investment platforms deeply tied to land finance. Industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, and the risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly compared to 2023 [6]. - At the regional level, in 2024, Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Construction of the Liquidity Risk Measurement System from the Perspective of Debt Repayment Credit - The assessment of liquidity risk from the perspective of debt - repayment credit is mainly based on the analysis of liquidity sources and applications. Enterprises with good profitability, high financial flexibility, and strong short - term solvency generally face lower liquidity and default risks. The report selects several quantitative financial indicators from three dimensions (profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity) for basic evaluation and maps the scores to a five - level classification of liquidity risk evaluation results (L1 - L5) [4][9][12]. - The basic evaluation indicators include total asset return rate, asset - liability ratio, short - term debt ratio, EBIT/interest expense, (EBITDA - capital expenditure)/interest expense, operating cash flow net amount to current liability ratio, cash - to - short - term debt ratio, current ratio, and cash - to - current liability ratio [11]. 3.2. Sample Overview - Considering data availability, the report selects bond - issuing entities with outstanding public bonds (enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, project revenue notes) as of May 26, 2025, excluding those that have experienced material defaults or have unavailable financial data. A total of 3,061 issuing entities are used as sample data, and their annual reports from 2021 - 2024 are used for analysis. Currently, the issuing entities of outstanding public bonds in China are mainly urban investment and state - owned enterprises [5][13]. 3.3. Analysis of the Liquidity Risk of Non - Financial Enterprise - Class Public Bond Issuers in 2024 3.3.1. Enterprise - Level Analysis - In 2024, the risk center of public bond - issuing entities has further deteriorated, and the proportion of tail enterprises has reached a new high. The overall profitability of enterprises has weakened, with the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreasing by 3.3% compared to the previous year. The proportion of entities with liquidity risk evaluation results of L4 and L5 has increased from 49.0% and 5.4% in 2023 to 52.3% and 7.4% in 2024, respectively [14]. - From the perspective of each indicator dimension, in 2024, the profitability of public bond issuers in China has continued to decline, and the coverage ability of operating cash flow has weakened. Although the financial flexibility has marginally improved, the short - term debt pressure remains high, and the short - term liquidity has generally tightened [20][21]. 3.3.2. Industry - Level Analysis - In 2024, industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises in each industry exceeding 60%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises increasing by more than 10 percentage points [23][24]. - The real - estate industry continues to adjust, with real - estate enterprises facing significant cash - flow pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, cautious development strategies, and high inventory [25]. - The steel industry has seen a decline in production and demand, with prices falling and enterprises facing significant performance pressure and increased liquidity risks [26]. - The basic chemicals industry is in a low - prosperity stage, facing challenges such as over - capacity and weak domestic demand, with the overall profitability under pressure [27]. - The building decoration industry is affected by weak downstream demand, with a decline in new contracts and increased pressure on construction funds, especially for weak - quality tail enterprises [28]. - The commerce and retail industry has been affected by weakening consumer demand, with profit pressure on enterprises [29]. - Urban investment platforms face continued pressure on local finance due to the adjustment of the land market, and although the asset and debt structure has been optimized, the internal operating pressure remains, and the liquidity risk of some weak - quality entities has increased [29]. 3.3.3. Regional - Level Analysis - In 2024, regions such as Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises exceeding 70%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [33][36].

Group 1: Credit Bond Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to continue in a volatile state, with a focus on interest rate strategies and band trading being more favorable than pure selection of varieties [5][38] - The strategy suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit bonds and high-grade long-term bonds to seek opportunities for interest rate compression [5][38] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in high-grade bonds from local government financing vehicles, real estate, and stable industries during market adjustments [5][38] Group 2: Local Government Financing Bonds - The transformation of local government financing vehicles is entering a complex phase, with potential pricing discrepancies as platforms adapt to new regulations [2][43] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to remain low due to strict regulatory oversight and the ongoing transition of platforms [2][43] - Focus on short to medium-term bonds from regions with stable cash flows, particularly in Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Henan, is recommended [2] Group 3: Financial Bonds and Varieties - High-grade perpetual bonds can be traded in response to interest rate fluctuations, but the trading space is limited and requires high trading standards [3][39] - The strategy includes focusing on high-grade bonds with a maturity of 3-5 years for stable institutions, while actively trading lower-grade bonds during market adjustments [3][39] - The expansion of TLAC non-capital instruments and their comparison with secondary capital bonds is highlighted as an area of interest [3][39] Group 4: Industrial Bonds - Industrial bonds have shown some recovery in profitability, but performance remains varied across sectors, with strong performance in automotive, machinery, and utilities, while real estate and construction sectors lag [4] - The recommendation is to focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises and stable private enterprises for medium-term investments [4] Group 5: Real Estate Bonds - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a recommendation to focus on high-grade bonds from state-owned enterprises while monitoring the recovery of the sector [4] - The potential for policy support in the real estate market could enhance recovery in core cities, but caution is advised for lower-tier cities [4] Group 6: Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) and Public REITs - The market for consumer finance ABS is expanding, with opportunities for variety exploration in a volatile market [3][39] - Public REITs are recommended to balance opportunities in both primary and secondary markets, focusing on stable projects [3][39]

2025 年 06 月 06 日 资产、债务增速双降，城投整合效果显著 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 定 收 益 研 究 固 收 专 题 本报告梳理了截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日公开市场发债并可获取近三年财务信息的 2088 家城投平台（已剔除母子公司），对其 2024 年财务报表进行资产、负债、 权益和财务指标分析，观测城投行业财务表现变化情况。 资产端：城投平台总资产规模稳步增长，头部城投平台资产增速较快 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究报告 《经济略为偏弱，转债波动率历史低 位—固收专题》-2025.6.2 《微观结构拥挤度高，转债防范阶段 调整—固收专题》-2025.5.25 《财政数据，验证经济状态、政策取 向—固收专题》-2025.5.21 陈曦（分析师） 刘瑞（分析师） chenxi2@kysec.cn liurui2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790525010001 2024 年样本城投平台的整体资产规模为 142.40 万亿元，同比增速为 5.26%，较 2023 年下降 4.40 个百分点。其中资产规模 1000 亿 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the operational data of 655 county-level investment companies, indicating a total asset scale of 30.26 trillion yuan and annual revenue of 1.77 trillion yuan, showcasing improvements in governance and operational capabilities [1][2] - The transformation of county-level investment companies is shifting from "risk breakthrough" to "momentum reshaping," with debt resolution being a prerequisite and differentiated development as the direction [1][5] Asset and Revenue Overview - Among the 655 county-level investment companies, 61 have total assets exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 10 companies surpassing 200 billion yuan, and 3 companies exceeding 300 billion yuan [2] - The average total asset value for these companies is 462.1 million yuan, while the average annual revenue is 27.04 million yuan, indicating that 75% of the companies fall below the average revenue level [2][3] Revenue Distribution - The top 20 county-level investment companies have annual revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with the highest being Qingdao West Coast New Area Integration Holding Group at 54.56 billion yuan [3] - Conversely, some companies report revenues as low as 61 thousand yuan, reflecting a reliance on traditional business models that result in slow project returns and low revenue [3] Market Transformation Strategies - Experts suggest that market-oriented transformation is essential for county-level investment companies to enhance revenue, advocating for participation in local industrial development and establishing sustainable revenue models [4] - Emphasis is placed on improving operational capabilities and introducing market-oriented management mechanisms to boost efficiency and profitability [4] Differentiated Development Approach - The report indicates a need for differentiated development strategies based on regional economic conditions, with recommendations for policy support for both economically developed and underdeveloped areas [6][7] - Leading county-level investment companies should focus on becoming comprehensive state-owned capital investment and operation companies, while smaller companies should concentrate on local advantages and specialized development [7]

"提前兑付可以理解，但绝不能损害投资者的利益。" 根据"22峨眉02"募集说明书，该债券目前余额为6.50亿元，期限为5年期，票面利率为6.00%。该债券由 乐山国有资产投资运营(集团)有限公司担保，当前该只债券剩余期限为2年。 发行人峨眉山发展唯一股东为峨眉山市国有资产监督管理委员会，峨眉山发展负责峨眉山市城市道路、 桥梁、旅游基础设施等工程的建设。 5月20日，峨眉山发展发布《关于提前兑付"峨眉山发展(控股)有限责任公司2022年面向专业投资者非公 开发行公司债券(第二期)"的议案》。 关于提前兑付的原因，峨眉山发展强调，为有效优化财务结构、降低财务成本，现提议对"22峨眉02"全 部剩余本金及应计利息进行提前兑付。每张债券兑付净价为100元。 "在低利率环境下，二级市场投资者的买入价格通常高于票面，如果加速到期，投资者将面临近10%的 亏损"。 5月27日，经济观察报记者获悉，峨眉山发展(控股)有限责任公司(下称"峨眉山发展")宣布，旗下债 券"22峨眉02"计划提前进行兑付。然而，这一决定引发了多家债券持有人的争议。 作为"22峨眉02"的机构持有人之一，朱啸所在的机构于2024年下半年购买了"22峨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The urban investment platform is under pressure to transform due to ongoing regulatory policies and debt management requirements, necessitating a reevaluation of its operational strategies and revenue structures [1]. Group 1: Government Subsidies and Financial Metrics - The requirement states that government subsidies should not exceed 50% of net profit during the reporting period [2][3]. - Various adjustment methods for calculating the impact of government subsidies include market-based recognition and flexible application of calculation formulas [3][4]. - The average of government subsidies as a percentage of net profit for 2023 and 2024 can be used to determine compliance with the 50% threshold [3]. Group 2: Revenue Recognition and Classification - The requirement specifies that construction-related revenue should not exceed 30% of total operating revenue [5]. - Key considerations for distinguishing between construction-related and market-based revenue include whether the payment source is a government entity and the nature of the project assignment [6][8]. - The classification of trade income and its implications for industry attributes must be disclosed, particularly regarding major clients and suppliers [8]. Group 3: Asset Management and Integration - The requirement indicates that construction-related assets should not exceed 30% of total assets [9]. - Key details include the definition of construction-related assets and the need for transparency regarding the composition of total assets [9][10]. - The marketability of inventory is crucial, with an emphasis on the ability to realize value through market transactions rather than government buybacks [11]. Group 4: Course and Practical Insights - A course titled "Key Points and Practical Cases for Urban Investment Industry Transformation" will provide in-depth analysis of revenue structure optimization and asset integration paths, focusing on compliance with new regulations [13][15]. - The course will cover various case studies from different sectors, including construction and technology investments, to illustrate practical strategies for transformation [16].

固收"申"音：月度策略 20250508 摘要 • 经济外需压力显现，市场对经济预期悲观，利率曲线趋于平坦。关注美国 联储政策、美元汇率及宽财政进度，警惕美国"双赤字"问题及其对美元 资产信用的潜在影响。 • 美国通过关税、汇率等手段解决特里芬难题，与中国等主要竞争对手博弈。 美国宽财政或难持续，未来几年可能转向紧缩，需重点关注美联储政策方 向和财政状况。 • 美国经济当前处于滞胀而非衰退，密歇根消费者信心指数下降主因通胀预 期回升。全球贸易增速或在 2024 年见顶，中美博弈加剧，全球贸易经济 重构概率大。 • 国内政策侧重提振内需，但海外负面影响或削弱政策效果。投资方面，地 产、基建、制造业增长空间有限；消费受储蓄意愿、收入预期和房价下跌 制约，未来政策应侧重促进消费。 • 货币政策方面，大工具保持定力，小工具灵活调整，实体融资需求下降形 成自发性宽松。5-8 月利率或下行，全年或为嵌套在宏观审慎框架内的利 率下行期，需警惕利率下行引发的金融风险。 Q&A 今年 5 月份整体在线市场的看法是什么？ 今年 5 月份整体在线市场的看法主要集中在利率下行期的开始。宽松交易窗口 已经打开，这与最新新闻发布会内容相 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth in the central Jiangsu region is rapid, but the industrial layout is still traditional, and the tax - source cultivation ability lags behind that of the southern Jiangsu region. The government's fiscal revenue is under pressure due to the real - estate market adjustment, resulting in dual debt pressure. However, significant progress has been made in debt risk prevention and control. The bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in the three cities in central Jiangsu have prominent problems such as large debt scale, weak profitability, and over - dependence on government subsidies, and they need to transform and resolve debts [3][38][39]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Debt Cause Analysis - **Economic and Demographic Situation**: The central Jiangsu region has strong economic development momentum, with a compound GDP growth rate of 6.32% in the past five years. However, the population growth in some cities is slow, and the urbanization rate and per - capita disposable income still have room for improvement [5]. - **Industrial Structure**: The fixed - asset investment in the three cities in central Jiangsu has promoted industrial transformation, but the industrial structure is still "secondary - tertiary - primary", and the proportion of the tertiary industry is relatively low compared to the provincial average. The traditional industries in each city are relatively strong, and the emerging industries are weak, with low tax - creation ability [7]. - **Fiscal Revenue**: From 2020 - 2024, the compound growth rate of the general budget revenue in the three cities in central Jiangsu was 2.9%. The fiscal budget balance rate is mostly below 65%, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low. The government - funded revenue is under pressure due to the real - estate market adjustment, and the urban investment platforms' land - acquisition behavior has increased their debt burden [11]. - **Debt Scale**: The local debt in the central Jiangsu region has expanded rapidly in the past five years, with a compound growth rate of 13.6%. Since 2021, the broad - based debt ratio has been on the rise [14]. 2. Main Debt - Resolution Measures and Progress - **Policy and Measures**: The Jiangsu provincial government implements a full - scale debt classification management system. The three cities in central Jiangsu have formulated corresponding management policies, including debt scale control, cost reduction, and platform transformation [18]. - **Specific Actions**: Each city has introduced a series of measures, such as debt risk warning mechanisms, budget management reforms, and platform company integration. As of March 1, 2025, 105 government financing platforms in the three cities have exited. The financing costs in each city have also been significantly reduced [19][21]. 3. Observation of the Fundamentals of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises in the Three Cities in Central Jiangsu - **Enterprise Hierarchy and Credit Rating**: As of December 31, 2024, there were 151 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in the three cities in central Jiangsu, mainly at the district - county level, and the credit ratings are mainly AA and AA+. The overall quality of the district - county - level enterprises is relatively weak [24][25]. - **Asset and Financial Leverage**: The asset scale of the bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is increasing, mainly driven by government - related assets. The financial leverage is also rising [24]. - **Operating Performance**: The operating cash - generating ability of the enterprises is limited, and they are highly dependent on government subsidies. The cash - recovery ability is acceptable, but the profitability of some enterprises is declining [31]. - **Debt Situation**: The scale of the existing interest - bearing debt is increasing, and the progress of debt scale reduction is average, but the financing cost has decreased significantly. The financing is generally tightening, and the effect of non - standard financing reduction is remarkable [24][33][36]. 4. Summary - The economic development in the central Jiangsu region is accompanied by dual debt pressure. Although progress has been made in debt control, the bond - issuing urban investment enterprises still face problems such as large debt scale and weak self - hematopoietic ability. They need to transform and resolve debts [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The recent revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's "Guidelines for the Review of Corporate Bond Issuance and Listing" introduces stricter requirements for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), aiming to enhance transparency and promote genuine transformation in the industry [1][3][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The revised guidelines expand the number of clauses from 56 to 66, introducing new requirements for the disclosure of the "335" indicators, which limit non-operating assets and income to 30% and government subsidies to 50% of net profit [1][4]. - The guidelines require LGFVs to disclose their asset structure, income structure, and profit structure, marking the first formal acknowledgment of the "335" indicators in public documents [4][6]. - The new rules aim to guide LGFVs towards market-oriented transformation and reduce reliance on government resources, thereby improving profitability and debt repayment capabilities [3][7]. Group 2: Market Impact - As of April 2025, the total scale of canceled corporate bond issuances reached 19.815 billion, with local state-owned enterprises accounting for 88.95% of these cancellations [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, LGFV bond issuance dropped to 15.762 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%, while net financing fell by 30.2% [2][5]. - The number of first-time issuers among LGFVs decreased by 18 compared to the same period last year, indicating a more cautious approach to bond issuance [2]. Group 3: Trade Business and Risks - The revised guidelines emphasize the need for LGFVs to disclose the rationality and authenticity of their trade business, addressing issues of "pseudo-trade" practices that have emerged in the industry [6][7]. - There are concerns regarding the authenticity of trade operations, with some LGFVs engaging in non-standard practices such as financing trade and "empty transfers" to inflate revenue [7][8]. - The guidelines require LGFVs with significant trade operations to disclose key customer and supplier information, accounting methods, and the commercial rationale behind their trade activities [7][8].