Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [1] Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a steady demand increase despite price reductions, maintaining a healthy dividend [1] - The express delivery sector is facing intensified price competition, leading to operational divergence among companies, while direct-operated express companies are achieving stable growth [4][10] - The aviation sector is under pressure due to increased passenger volume but reduced ticket prices, with a slow improvement in supply-demand relationships [4][52] - The highway sector is seeing a recovery in traffic volume, resulting in profit restoration for most leading companies [4][59] - The shipping industry is experiencing mixed performance, with container shipping under pressure from external trade policies, while oil shipping is recovering [4][59] - The shipbuilding market is facing challenges due to fluctuating demand and pricing pressures [7] - Port operations are stable, with significant growth in cargo throughput [7] - The bulk supply chain is under pressure from weak demand, but leading companies are demonstrating resilience [7][32] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 21.6% in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations [14] - Major companies like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported business volumes of 6.78 billion, 6.08 billion, and 5.81 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 23.0%, and 26.6% [14] - The average revenue per package in Q1 2025 decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price competition [18] - The single-package profit for YTO, Yunda, and Shentong decreased by 25.3%, 36.7%, and 2.0% respectively [24] Aviation - The aviation sector experienced a 4.9% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in Q1 2025, reaching 186 million passengers [52] - The international passenger volume surpassed the 2019 level for the first time, indicating a recovery in international travel [52] - The average ticket price is under pressure, leading to a decline in unit revenue for major airlines [68] Highways - The highway sector is witnessing a steady recovery in traffic volume, contributing to profit growth for most leading companies [4][59] - Nine out of nineteen listed highway companies reported an increase in dividend yield year-on-year [4] Shipping - The container shipping index decreased by 12% year-on-year due to external trade uncertainties, while domestic shipping showed some recovery [4][59] - The oil shipping market is experiencing a recovery, but the bulk shipping market remains sluggish [4] Ports - Major ports achieved a cargo throughput of 4.222 billion tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.23% [7] Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is facing challenges due to weak demand, but leading companies are adapting through operational optimizations [7][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the express delivery sector, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, due to their stable operations and growth potential [32]

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" [2][17]. Core Viewpoints - The logistics sector is expected to continue its robust growth, driven by the rise of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [28]. - The express delivery industry maintained a relatively high growth rate in volume, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5% in 2024, reaching 175.08 billion packages, and a 21.6% increase in Q1 2025, totaling 45.14 billion packages [26][30]. - The price competition in the express delivery sector has intensified, leading to pressure on single-package profitability, with the average price per package dropping by 8.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [3][32]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - **Volume Growth**: The express delivery industry experienced a strong growth in volume, with major companies like Shunfeng, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting package volumes of 3.541 billion, 6.779 billion, 6.076 billion, and 5.807 billion respectively in Q1 2025, with growth rates of 19.7%, 21.7%, 22.9%, and 26.6% [26][30]. - **Price and Profitability**: The average price per package in the industry was 7.66 yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year. Shunfeng's net profit increased by 16.9% year-on-year, while YTO, Yunda, and Shentong saw net profit changes of -9.2%, -22.1%, and +24.0% respectively [3][32]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report recommends focusing on Shunfeng Holdings due to its strong cash flow and potential for growth in the express delivery sector [3][32]. Aviation - **Operational Status**: The aviation industry saw a recovery in passenger load factors, reaching 83.3% in 2024, slightly above 2019 levels. Domestic and international flight turnover volumes increased by 12.0% and 85.2% respectively [4][6]. - **Financial Performance**: Major airlines reduced losses significantly in 2024, with revenue growth for Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines at 18.1%, 8.9%, and 16.2% respectively [5][6]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report suggests focusing on airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines, anticipating improved performance as supply constraints and ticket prices recover [6]. Ports - **Operational Data**: The total cargo throughput for national ports reached 1.7595 billion tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.66%. In Q1 2025, throughput was 422.2 million tons, up 3.23% [7][8]. - **Financial Data**: Qingdao Port showed a net profit growth of 6.33% in 2024, while China Merchants Port's net profit increased by 26.44% [8]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report recommends focusing on Qingdao Port due to its superior return on equity (ROE) and dividend capabilities [8]. Highways - **Performance Overview**: The highway sector showed stable growth in Q1 2025, with passenger and freight volumes increasing by 0.5% and 5.4% respectively [9][10]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading highway operators like China Merchants Highway and Shandong Highway for their strong cash flow and growth potential [10]. Railways - **Operational Status**: Railway freight and passenger turnover volumes declined in 2024, with significant drops in the Daqin Line's freight volume [11][12]. - **Financial Performance**: Daqin Railway's net profit fell by 24.23% in 2024, while Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway's net profit increased by 10.6% [12]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report suggests a positive outlook for Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway as freight volumes are expected to recover [12]. Shipping - **Operational Data**: Oil shipping rates remained around $50,000 per day, while container shipping rates showed slight declines [13][14]. - **Financial Performance**: COSCO Shipping Holdings reported a net profit increase of 105.78% in 2024 [14]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report recommends focusing on stable companies like China Merchants Energy and Zhonggu Logistics amid fluctuating shipping rates [14]. Bulk Supply Chain - **Operational Status**: The bulk supply chain sector faced weak downstream demand, leading to a slight decrease in cargo volume for leading companies [15][16]. - **Financial Performance**: Major companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao reported significant declines in net profit [16]. - **Investment Recommendation**: The report suggests that the sector may see a recovery in profits as demand improves and recommends focusing on companies with high dividend yields [16].

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) reported a year-on-year increase of 34.7% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024, reflecting a recovery despite overall performance being pressured by weak demand and falling prices in the bulk commodity market [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 366.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 2.3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.42 billion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year; however, excluding credit impairment losses, the net profit grew by over 7% year-on-year [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 68.97 billion yuan, a decline of 23.7% year-on-year and 26.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 3.6% [2]. Business Structure - The bulk commodity trading segment generated revenue of 345.3 billion yuan in 2024, down 21.4% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand and price declines; the operating volume remained stable at 224 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% [3]. - The logistics segment saw revenue growth of 33.0% year-on-year, reaching 9.42 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 8.9% [3]. - The manufacturing segment achieved revenue of 11.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with shipbuilding revenue rising by 24.8% to 5.9 billion yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns and Incentives - The company increased its dividend payout ratio from 43.31% at the end of 2023 to 49.46% in 2024, with a total proposed dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, amounting to 702 million yuan [4]. - A stock incentive plan was announced, proposing to grant 173 million restricted shares at a price of 2.96 yuan per share, representing 6.16% of the total share capital [4]. - A share repurchase plan was also announced, aiming to buy back 100 to 150 million shares at a maximum price of 8.85 yuan per share, with an expected total repurchase amount of 885 million to 1.328 billion yuan [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the bulk supply chain, with a solid foundation and expected high dividend ratios and yields; projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.746 billion, 1.969 billion, and 2.211 billion yuan respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Xiamen International Trade (600755) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on its core supply chain management business after divesting from real estate and financial services, positioning itself to navigate through economic cycles [8][10] - The domestic bulk commodity supply chain market presents significant growth potential, with the company holding only 0.85% market share as of 2023, indicating room for expansion [9][62] - The investment logic is based on a combination of demand recovery, internal growth, and a high dividend yield, making it a balanced investment option [10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiamen International Trade has transitioned from a diversified business model to a focus on supply chain management, shedding non-core assets [34][37] - The company has a stable ownership structure backed by local state-owned assets, with 35.82% of shares held by Xiamen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [38] Business Model - The company operates as a midstream circulation organizer with high turnover and low profit margins, leveraging its advantages in credit, capital, operations, and logistics [7][12] - The business model includes both self-operated and agency trading modes, with revenue primarily generated from the sale of goods [18] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and profit growth rates are positioned in the upper-middle tier of the industry, with stable ROE and net profit margins [55][56] - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at CNY 389.05 billion, CNY 404.61 billion, and CNY 418.84 billion, with corresponding net profits of CNY 1.22 billion, CNY 1.61 billion, and CNY 2.09 billion [10] Market Position - Xiamen International Trade is a leading player in the domestic bulk commodity supply chain, particularly strong in metals and paper products [42][43] - The company’s market share in key categories like steel, iron ore, and copper ranks among the top in the industry [43] Growth Strategy - The company is pursuing a dual growth strategy of horizontal expansion into new product categories and vertical integration along the supply chain [9][61] - The focus on emerging sectors such as health and renewable energy is part of its strategy to diversify and mitigate demand fluctuations [78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions against Iran are intensifying, and OPEC has reached a consensus to increase production, indicating upward potential for the oil tanker sector [2][7] - The express delivery business volume has shown significant year-on-year growth, with a reported increase of 21.5% in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The U.S. government has announced additional sanctions against Iran, targeting several individuals, entities, and vessels involved in Iranian oil exports, including 10 VLCC supertankers, which constitutes about 20% of the global tanker fleet [7] - OPEC has agreed to gradually increase production starting April, aiming to release 2.2 million barrels per day [7] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.09 – 03.15) Aviation Data - Domestic flight volume for the week was 84,029 flights, averaging 12,004 flights per day, a slight decrease of 0.10% week-on-week and 0.50% year-on-year [10] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.43 million, a 0.05% increase week-on-week and a 2.12% increase year-on-year [11] - The average domestic ticket price decreased by 3.49% week-on-week and 6.31% year-on-year [11] Express Delivery Data - For the week of March 3-9, the average daily collection volume was approximately 555 million pieces, a 3.99% increase from the previous week [17] - Year-to-date, the average daily collection volume is about 495 million pieces, reflecting a 36.00% increase year-on-year [17] - In 2024, the express delivery business volume increased by 21.5% year-on-year, with revenue up by 13.8% [3] Shipping Data - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping was reported at 1,517 points, a 20% increase week-on-week [48] - The VLCC-TCE rate was $38,329 per day, a 3% decrease week-on-week [49] Recent Key Reports - The report recommends focusing on companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, Shandong Highway, and China Eastern Airlines, among others, as part of the investment strategy [4]