2025年12月18日,海南全岛封关运作正式启动,这一标志性举措,为海口旅游市场注入新的发展动能。封关 后的椰城海口街头游客络绎不绝,免税店、景区、商业综合体等消费场景持续升温。记者实地探访发现, 政策红利下的免税购物选择更丰富、文旅产品供给更优质,叠加国际客流的持续增长,海口旅游经济正迎 来品质与规模的双重提升。 记者 魏银科 尹睿 海南报道 更大的惊喜在黄金饰品柜台。当天熊女士所购黄金品牌免税克价为1183元,熊女士选购了两条总重约11.5 克的项链。使用之前获得的积分,叠加店内"满10000减500"活动及信用卡合作优惠后,她实际支付12459 元,折算每克约1083元。"这个牌子我们那边的商场就是按官方价卖,基本上不搞活动,这里每克便宜近两 百元,太划算了。"她比较道。 不过,购买黄金的过程,也让熊女士了解到封关后的购物限制。店员提醒,金银等贵金属制品仅限离岛不离 境旅客购买,且不能"即购即提",需由免税店打包后,旅客在离岛机场自提点提取。"能理解,'二线管 住'嘛。"熊女士表示,来到海口后,她已经对海南全岛封关运作有了比较深刻的理解。 记者观察到,封关次日的免税店内,游客流量很大,尤其是美妆折扣店、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the travel industry chain, gold and jewelry, and AI+ sectors [2]. - The upcoming New Year holiday is expected to boost travel and consumption, with specific recommendations for various companies in the travel and hospitality sectors [3][4]. - The retail sector showed a 6.58% increase last week, with the consumer services sector up 4.40%, ranking first and second among 30 industries [3]. Industry Summary - **Travel and Hospitality**: - Recommendations include Ctrip Group and Tongcheng Travel for OTA, Huazhu Group-S, Jinjiang Hotels, and Shoulv Hotels for hotels, and Changbai Mountain for scenic spots [3][4]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: - Recommended stocks include Lao Pu Gold, Caibai Shares, Luk Fook Holdings, Chow Tai Fook, and Chao Hong Ji, with a focus on Emperor Jewelry [3][4]. - **Dividend Stocks**: - Recommended stocks include Sumida, Action Education, and Chongqing Department Store [3]. - **AI+ Sector**: - Recommended stocks include Conant Optical, Chalk, Tianli International Holdings, and Core International, with a focus on Kevin Education and Dou Shen Education [3]. - **Stock Price Movements**: - Notable stock price increases include Hongqi Chain (+22.79%), Jiajiayue (+15.76%), Yonghui Supermarket (+15.20%), and Tianhong Shares (+13.85%) [3]. - **Key Industry Updates**: - Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched its island-wide customs closure operation, achieving sales of over 250 million yuan on the first day, a year-on-year increase of 90% [3]. - McDonald's China announced a price increase of 0.5 to 1 yuan for some menu items [3]. - Luckin Coffee and Dazhong Capital are evaluating the acquisition of Blue Bottle Coffee from Nestlé to enhance brand image and enter the high-end coffee market [3]. - **Retail Sector Data**: - November retail sales data showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a slowdown attributed to the early "Double Eleven" promotions [3]. - New store openings include JD's discount supermarket in Beijing and Meituan's Xiaoxiang Supermarket, with significant first-day revenues reported [3].

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure is expected to significantly boost tourism and consumption in Hainan, driven by favorable policies such as duty-free shopping and enhanced international travel accessibility [1][3]. Tourism and Hospitality - Following the closure, popular hotel types in cities like Sanya and Haikou sold out during the first weekend, with family rooms and sea-view suites being the most sought after [3]. - The closure is anticipated to enhance the hotel market, with travel agencies moving towards internationalization due to increased demand from both international tourists and high-end domestic consumers [3]. - The implementation of new duty-free policies has led to a 27.1% year-on-year increase in duty-free shopping amounts in Hainan, reaching 2.38 billion yuan in November 2025 [3]. International Travel and Accessibility - Hainan has expanded its international travel network, launching multiple new routes and reducing check-in times for certain flights, which enhances the convenience for inbound tourists [8]. - The number of countries with visa-free access has increased to 86, and various new visa policies have been introduced to facilitate international travel, contributing to a record high of 1.4 million international passengers at Haikou Meilan Airport [9][10]. Medical Tourism - The "zero tariff" policy for imported medical products is expected to attract international medical resources and enhance the integration of medical and tourism sectors in Hainan [12][13]. - The introduction of personalized medical tourism routes and services is anticipated to increase the appeal of Hainan as a destination for medical tourists, with a reported 64% year-on-year increase in medical tourism visitors to Boao Lecheng [13][14]. Economic Impact - The closure is projected to create a more favorable environment for trade and tourism, potentially making Hainan the largest and most well-regulated provincial duty-free market in China [4][5]. - The combination of favorable policies and geographical advantages is expected to attract more foreign medical institutions and enhance Hainan's position in the global medical tourism market [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][29] Core Insights - The overall consumption data for November 2025 shows stable performance, with service consumption remaining robust, providing growth momentum for the industry. There is a focus on expanding domestic demand [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, but a month-on-month decline. Restaurant revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1][3] - The service sector PMI for October was 49.5%, indicating a contraction below the critical point of 50% [1] Summary by Sections Domestic Macro Data - Retail sales in November 2025 totaled 4.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points, falling short of the Wind consensus expectation of 2.93%. The decline was influenced by the early "Double Eleven" sales activities and a reduction in national subsidies. Retail sales of goods grew by 1.0% year-on-year, while restaurant revenue increased by 3.2% [1][3] - Service consumption remains strong, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in service retail sales from January to November, marking a continuous recovery over three months. This growth rate is 1.3 percentage points higher than that of goods retail sales during the same period [1][3] - The unemployment rate in November remained stable at 5.1%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. The average weekly working hours for employed persons was 48.6 hours [1][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel consumption, such as Lingnan Holdings and Tongcheng Travel. Other recommended companies include Tianmuhu, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, China Youth Travel, Jinjiang Hotels, Junting Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [3] - Local dining representatives like Tongqinglou and quality targets in the performance industry such as Fengshang Culture and Dafeng Industrial are also highlighted. Key players in the conference and exhibition sector include Miao Exhibition and Lansheng Co. [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipated surge in public travel and leisure demand during the New Year's holiday, with a report indicating increased search interest for keywords like "New Year" and "cross-year" on the Tongcheng Travel platform [1] - The official holiday schedule for New Year's is from January 1 to January 3, with the potential for an extended 8-day holiday by taking leave from December 29 to 31, leading to a strong public willingness to travel [1] - In the secondary market, stocks related to airlines, hotels, and scenic spots showed active performance, with companies like Nanjing Business Travel, Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Dalian Shengya, and Air China leading the gains [1] Group 2 - The tourism ETF (562510), which tracks the CSI Tourism Theme Index, has been rising for several consecutive days, covering sectors such as tourist attractions, airports, retail, and hotel dining [1] - The tourism sector is experiencing significant heat due to multiple catalysts, including winter sports tourism, overseas travel, visa-free policies, and the combination of New Year's and Spring Festival holidays [1]

据官方公告，海南自贸港将于12月18日(本周四)正式启动全岛封关，人员进出便利性提升、免税品类扩 容或直接利好免税、酒店、航空等旅游产业。展望后市，元旦及"最长春节"临近、冰雪旅游升温，旅游 行业处于"政策红利+需求释放"的双重利好周期。 据国泰海通数据，2025年11月1日海南离岛免税购物新政实施后，三亚市首月落实新政成效显著。当月 离岛免税销售额达16.3亿元，同比增长24.3%，创2025年以来单月增速新高，新政对免税消费市场的有 力驱动充分显现。 旅游ETF(562510)跟踪中证旅游主题指数，持仓中国中免、海南机场（600515）等海南概念股，覆盖景 区、航空机场、免税、酒店餐饮等细分领域。在海南封关、冰雪经济、春节假期等多重催化下有望受 益。 ...

旅游及酒店板块上涨，君亭酒店涨超6%，西域旅游、三峡旅游涨超2%，带动旅游ETF上涨，年内 涨幅7%。 | CARDE 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | 估算规模 | 管理公司 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562510 | 旅游ETF | 0.53% | 7.03% | | 6.33亿 华夏基金 | | 159766 | 旅游ETF | 0.53% | 6.81% | 40.11亿 | 富国基金 | 对于旅游行业，申万宏源证券认为，春秋假及雪假政策显著拉动淡季旅游需求，错峰出行成为常 态，景区及旅游企业受益明显。政策组合措施（政府补贴+金融支持+商家优惠）有效激发居民消费意 愿，文旅及冰雪产业投资机会值得关注。同时，高基数景区及优质供给仍稀缺，研学旅游、亲子游及高 频冰雪消费成为市场亮点。 免税：行业景气度边际回升，建议积极布局龙头。25M9离岛免税销售额增幅同比转正，且前三季 度客单水平同比显著回升。海南岛封关在即，免税商的牌照优势仍存，并有望共享自贸港政策红利。免 签扩容和国际航班运力修复助推国际客流增长，市内免税门店加速落地。当前行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail sector, focusing on companies with strong operational resilience or signs of bottom reversal [6][63]. Core Insights - The focus has shifted from policy catalysts to fundamental performance, with an emphasis on companies demonstrating operational resilience or potential recovery from low points [2][15]. - The retail sector experienced a relatively small decline of -0.21% during the week of December 8-12, 2025, outperforming other consumer-related sectors [1][7]. - The report highlights specific stocks that have shown significant price movements, such as Guai Bao Pet and TCL Electronics, which saw increases due to various catalysts [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The retail sector's performance was relatively stable compared to other sectors, with a decline of only -0.21%, ranking 12th among all sectors [1][7]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards technology and high-end manufacturing, leading to weaker returns in consumer and cyclical sectors [2][15]. Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Guai Bao Pet, which rose by 2.7%, and TCL Electronics, which increased by 2.5%, attributed to factors such as oversold rebounds and improved performance expectations [2][16]. - Conversely, stocks like Pop Mart faced declines due to disappointing sales during the overseas Black Friday promotions, raising concerns about future growth [2][16]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that investment opportunities may be limited as policy expectations have stabilized, recommending stocks with strong fundamentals and low valuation percentiles [3][17]. - Three main investment themes are proposed: benefiting from holiday travel and tourism, domestic brands with competitive advantages, and durable goods companies likely to benefit from U.S. interest rate cuts [3][17]. Sector News - In the cosmetics sector, sales on major platforms reached 37.64 billion yuan in the first 11 months, with Proya leading in several categories [4][18]. - The home appliance sector saw the launch of a new smart air conditioning factory by Xiaomi, enhancing its production capabilities [4][19]. - The furniture sector is addressing consumer pain points with new commitments from leading companies to ensure quality and service [4][20].

Group 1: Retail and Service Industry Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the hotel and duty-free sectors, suggesting that the hotel prices have gradually increased since the second half of this year, with a recommendation to focus on hotel stocks such as Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels [6][12][17] - Duty-free sales are showing signs of bottoming out, with new policies implemented to expand the range of duty-free products and eligible consumers, leading to a significant increase in sales figures [12][15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption policies, particularly in the context of the ice and snow economy, silver-haired economy, and sports events, recommending investments in companies like Changbai Mountain and Sanchuan Tourism [26][28][29] Group 2: AI Applications in Various Industries - The report discusses the acceleration of AI applications in the education and human resources sectors, with companies like Keri International and Beijing Renli leveraging AI to enhance recruitment efficiency [39][44] - AI's integration into 3D printing and e-commerce is highlighted, with a focus on companies like Huina Technology and Xiaogoods City, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions through full-chain penetration [6][39] - The report notes that AI applications are driving significant changes in operational efficiency and commercial opportunities across various sectors, particularly in human resources [39][44] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with domestic brands showing strong performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [6][32] - The report identifies key players in the beauty sector, recommending brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shanghai Jahwa, while also suggesting a focus on high-growth segments within the industry [6][32] - The medical beauty sector is under pressure but is seeing consolidation and innovation, with recommendations for companies like Jinbo Biological and Kedi-B [6][32] Group 4: Jewelry and Precious Metals - The jewelry sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on overseas expansion as a second growth curve, recommending companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [6][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-value jewelry products and the impact of new tax regulations on the market dynamics [6][32] Group 5: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is witnessing a shift, with a focus on leading brands expanding their store counts and product categories, particularly in the tea and dining segments [32][38] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the restaurant industry, noting the resilience of Western fast food and the growth of Chinese casual dining brands [32][38]

今年民航出行热度持续，尤其是进入冬季，多地中小学生相继迎来的"雪假"也让这个冬季出游热度高 涨。 近期，随着乌鲁木齐、阿勒泰、吉林等多个省市相继宣布"雪假"时间，机票预订量持续上涨。在线旅游 预订平台数据显示，11月29日至12月7日"雪假"期间，从乌鲁木齐和阿勒泰出发的机票预订量都显著增 长。其中，从乌鲁木齐出发的机票预订量环比11月15日至23日增长45%，而从阿勒泰出发的机票预订量 环比增长48%，尤其飞往南方温暖城市的航线更受欢迎。 以乌鲁木齐为例，"雪假"期间，游客的热门目的地包括三亚、广州、北京等地。其中从乌鲁木齐到三 亚、广州、北京、西双版纳等地的机票预订量，同比都增长了1倍以上。 研究员 石珂："雪假"期间，新疆景区的门票预订总量环比增长16%，最热门的景点包括赛里木湖、禾木 风景区、喀纳斯景区等。同时，吉林对大学生实行滑雪免票政策。内蒙古、新疆等地也在陆续加码优 惠。政策带动下，今年东北和新疆的多个城市旅游热度持续走高，冰雪游目的地更加多元。 同时，热门冰雪游目的地酒店预订也非常火爆。今年11月至明年1月底，新疆博尔塔拉的酒店预订量同 比增长超八成，辽宁丹东、吉林辽源、黑龙江伊春等地的酒店预 ...