期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色午后企稳回升 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价触底回升，午后增仓上行明显，主力期价逼近 10.5 万关 口。从盘面来看，前期悲观情绪得到释放，午后白银打开跌停板， 市场氛围有所回暖，有色普涨。产业层面，随着前期铜价下挫至 10 万关口，产业补库意愿有所上升，给予铜价支撑，午后国内 200 万吨 冶炼项目已被叫停的消息一定程度上推动了铜价上行。技术上，铜 价再度上升至 1 月震荡区间上沿，可关注该位置压力。 沪铝 今日铝价偏强震荡， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Dazhong Nonferrous ETF (159980) demonstrates superior volatility control and stability amid the fluctuating nonferrous metal sector, driven by its underlying futures assets [1] - The Dazhong Nonferrous ETF's underlying assets are directly linked to nonferrous commodity futures, which are less affected by stock market sentiment and individual company risks, showcasing lower price volatility compared to stock-based nonferrous assets [1] - The fundamental outlook for industrial metals like copper and aluminum remains positive, with a projected global copper supply-demand gap expanding to 450,000 to 630,000 tons by 2026, driven by AI computing, new energy, and grid investments [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities forecasts that supply constraints, resilient demand, and structurally low inventories will support strong copper and aluminum prices, with average copper prices expected to be $12,000 per ton and aluminum prices at 23,000 yuan per ton in 2026 [2] - The firm emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on the copper sector's pullback as a strategic opportunity, highlighting that mine production cuts and stable end-user demand will underpin the copper price outlook for 2026 [2] Group 3 - The current volatility in industrial metals is primarily driven by trading risks, while the core logic of "rigid supply + energy transition demand" remains unchanged, suggesting that the Dazhong Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) could help investors capture overall sector opportunities [3] - The Dazhong Nonferrous ETF's underlying assets include futures for copper, aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and nickel traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices stabilized slightly. The US ISM manufacturing index in January reached 52.6, exceeding expectations and hitting a new high since February 2022. China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in January rose to a three - month high of 50.3. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,859 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,676 tons. The market is in rigid procurement, but the willingness to buy has increased with price adjustments. The copper market faces short - term downward pressure, but long - term fundamentals support price increases [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina trended stronger, while Shanghai aluminum trended weaker. Spot alumina prices fell, and aluminum ingot spot discounts widened. Supply disruptions have led alumina into a narrow - range recovery, but inventory is gradually accumulating. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Although market sentiment has dragged down prices, cost support remains solid. There may be opportunities to go long lightly near the cost line [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US economic data improved, alleviating market concerns. In China, manufacturing data also showed positive signs. Inventory changes were mixed. The copper market faces short - term pressure due to weak spot fundamentals, inventory accumulation, and low demand around the Spring Festival, but long - term factors support price increases [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fluctuated, and aluminum prices were affected by various factors such as supply disruptions, downstream demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment led to price declines, but the cost of nickel ore and nickel - iron is rising, providing support for prices. Demand in some sectors is expected to decline seasonally [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory changes were diverse. The import window was closed, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [1][4]. - **Lead**: Lead prices decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The import profit and loss situation changed [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices decreased, and inventory increased. The spot discount widened, and the import profit and loss situation worsened [2][5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased, and inventory changes were mixed. The import profit and loss situation deteriorated significantly [3][5]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices decreased, and inventory increased. The import profit and loss situation improved [7]. - **Tin**: Tin prices decreased significantly, and inventory increased. The import profit and loss situation improved [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [13]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [19]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [25]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel [31]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, crude copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin [38]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional qualifications in the non - ferrous metals field, and have won many awards [45][46].

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 20260203申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨2.27%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和 | | | 下游需求等变化。 | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨1.53%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排 | | 锌 | 产负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游 | | | 需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, driven by falling gold and silver prices, with major contracts hitting their daily limits and other varieties also declining [1][3]. Market Performance - As of the latest trading session, major contracts for copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and alloy have seen substantial declines, with copper futures down 9.01% and aluminum futures down 9.01% [2]. - The trading volume in the non-ferrous metal sector reached a recent high last Friday but has since decreased, although it remains elevated compared to previous days [2]. Price Trends and Influences - The night trading session continued the downward trend, with international copper futures down 1.11% and domestic copper futures down 1.01% [3]. - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy, leading to a surge in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which has negatively impacted non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Year-to-date, absolute inventories of copper, aluminum, and nickel are significantly higher than in previous years, indicating weak price support from supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Global copper inventories exceed 1.3 million tons, putting upward pressure on prices, while domestic aluminum inventories have reached 1 million tons, reflecting weaker supply-demand structures compared to previous years [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent rapid increases in copper prices have led to a cooling of bullish sentiment, with the market potentially shifting towards fundamental trading [5]. - Seasonal demand suppression and inventory accumulation are expected to pressure prices leading up to the Chinese New Year, with a potential rebound in March if downstream recovery exceeds expectations [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices opened lower and continued to decline with decreasing positions. In the afternoon, the main contract price fell below the 100,000 yuan mark and hit the daily limit. The pessimistic macro sentiment continued to spread, and the willingness of previous funds to liquidate increased. Most varieties in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors hit the daily limit. Technically, the short - term copper price broke below the lower edge of the oscillation range since January. Pay attention to the long - short game at this position in the night session [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices opened lower and continued to decline with decreasing positions. In the afternoon, the main contract price dropped to the 23,000 yuan level and hit the daily limit. Due to the spread of pessimistic macro sentiment and the increased willingness of previous funds to liquidate, most varieties in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors hit the daily limit. Pay attention to the long - short game at the 23,000 yuan level in the night session [7]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices opened lower and continued to decline with decreasing positions. In the afternoon, the main contract price fell below the 130,000 yuan mark and hit the daily limit. Affected by the spread of pessimistic macro sentiment and the increased willingness of previous funds to liquidate, most varieties in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors hit the daily limit. Pay attention to the long - short game at the 130,000 yuan mark in the night session [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Driven by market risks, Shanghai copper gave back all the unexpected gains of last week. After the gold and silver prices plummeted, the Shanghai copper 2602 contract fell below the 100,000 - yuan mark during the day. In the first hour after the morning opening, downstream customers actively placed orders, and some enterprises reported an increase in new orders. The support of the 30 - day moving average of the Shanghai copper 2602 contract is at risk. With the significant decline in copper prices, the downstream replenishment sentiment was boosted to some extent, but enterprises still held a wait - and - see attitude. If copper prices stabilize, market transactions will further pick up [10]. - **Aluminum**: As of January 30, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $64.38 per ton, down $0.87 from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was reported at $39 per ton, down $1.50 from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $61 per ton, down $1.50 from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low - temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $62.5 per ton, down $0.5 from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high - temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $57.5 per ton, down $0.5 from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was reported at $47 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was reported at $61 per ton, down $0.5 from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was reported at $73.5 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was reported at $71.5 per ton, down $2 from last Friday [11]. - **Nickel**: On February 2, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 135,000 - 145,400 yuan per ton, with an average price of 140,200 yuan per ton, down 5,950 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,500 - 9,000 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 8,750 yuan per ton, up 1,500 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 400 - 400 yuan per ton [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper spot premium and discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [13][14][17]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

2026年2月2日，有色板块出现分化行情，股票类有色ETF同步跟踪有色产业链个股，日内跌幅显著扩 大，多家有色龙头个股跌幅明显，部分标的触及跌停，带动对应ETF盘中跌幅逼近10%；同期有色ETF 大成(159980)依托商品期货底层资产，跌幅显著小于股票类有色ETF，呈现更强的波动控制能力。 值得一提的是，截至1月30日，有色ETF大成(159980)最新资金净流入6757.94万元。拉长时间看，近5个 交易日合计"吸金"3.95亿元。有色ETF大成(159980)最新规模达87.55亿元，最新份额达39.08亿份，均创 成立以来新高。 从资产属性来看，商品期货类ETF直接挂钩有色金属现货与期货价格，受股市整体情绪、个股经营风险 影响更小，实物类资产的风险特征优于股票类金融资产，在市场回调阶段具备更优的抗跌性。 机构认为，此轮板块调整受贵金属大幅回调情绪传导影响，铜、铝等工业金属商品出现短期波动，但并 未扭转基本面支撑逻辑。 华源证券指出，宏观方面，美联储1月议息会议暂停降息，同时凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席， 他被市场视为鹰派人选，美元指数拉升，前期积累过多涨幅的金银铜等商品多头大量平仓引发了市场短 ...

20260202申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.47%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和 | | | 下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低0.23%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 | | | 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排 产负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游 | | | 需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 （元/吨） | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 （吨） | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | | (美元/吨） | （美元/吨） | | ...

有色早间全线尽墨，其中沪铜和国际铜跌幅超过6%，沪锌跌超3%。前期在贵金属大涨所带来的多头情绪外溢作用下，有色多品种走势受到明显提振，期价 多刷新阶段性高位甚至创下纪录新高，但高价已经对下游需求造成抑制，目前伴随着贵金属的坠落，有色多品种同样回调。 （文华综合） ...

消息面上，受美国经济增长走强以及全球在数据中心、机器人和电力基础设施领域支出增加的预期提 振，基本金属价格在2026年开局强劲，铜价也因此创下历史新高。 昨夜，金价逼近5600美元历史高位后跳水，一度较日高暴跌近9%，随后跌幅收窄。白银创下121美元的 历史新高后，一度重挫超12%。与此同时，铜价直线走高，接力上涨。铜价一度上涨11%，史上首次突 破每吨14500美元， 创下逾十六年以来的最大涨幅！LME铜报收13650.5美元/吨，上涨4%。 国泰君安期货表示，长周期依然存在向上驱动逻辑，虽然美联储按下暂停键，但华尔街押注新任主席6 月重启降息。同时，基本面上铜矿供应扰动依然有可能增强，且AI算力中心等新兴行业的消费逻辑稳 固。 （基金有风险，投资须谨慎） 1月30日，有色金属期货多数回调，截至9：46，工业有色ETF万家（560860）盘中成交额近4亿，交投 活跃。 工业有色ETF万家（560860）备受资金青睐，资金连续5日净流入，合计"吸金"超7.2亿元，近10日"吸 金"超13亿，近20日"吸金"超46亿元。截至1月29日，该基金最新规模攀升至171.19亿元，一举突破170 亿大关！ 工业有色ET ...