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20250911申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250911
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 02:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range as there are both bullish and bearish factors. Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%. The concentrate supply is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry shows positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, and short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices rose 0.5%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 79,780 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 10,013 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 56.61 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 155,275 tons, down 550 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output is growing strongly. The power industry has positive growth, PV installations increased sharply year - on - year with potential slowdown, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range, and investors should focus on the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices rose 0.14%, with the domestic previous date futures closing price at 22,140 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,888 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 23.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 51,025 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly, infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak [2]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand changes [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 20,790 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 50 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 2,622 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 2.92 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 485,275 tons with no change [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 120,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,740 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 15,146 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 182.88 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 218,070 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 16,760 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 1,987 dollars/ton, LME spot at a discount of 44.17 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 239,325 tons, down 3,800 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous date futures closing price was 270,250 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price at 34,635 dollars/ton, LME spot at a premium of 27.00 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract, and LME inventory at 2,355 tons, up 75 tons [2].
2025有色金属期现货市场产融结合在线研讨会开启 聚焦有色产业 共探期货服务实体新路径
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-10 19:35
Core Viewpoint - The online seminar series aims to deepen the integration of production and finance in the non-ferrous metal futures and spot market, focusing on various metal futures products and their role in promoting high-quality industry development [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Industry Insights - The global and Chinese copper industry is experiencing positive trends, with key focus areas including industry structure, consumption growth, and regulatory requirements [2]. - Since 2020, the copper market has faced challenges with increased price volatility, necessitating the use of futures and options for risk management [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the copper futures market recorded a trading volume of 22.7 million contracts, with a transaction value of 879 million yuan, indicating growing participation from real enterprises [4][5]. Group 2: Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum industry is shifting towards green and low-carbon development, with a focus on expanding the consumer market [2]. - The launch of aluminum alloy futures in June 2025 fills a gap in the processing segment, enhancing the risk management framework for the aluminum industry [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the total trading volume of non-ferrous metal futures reached 197 million contracts, with a transaction value of 27.8 trillion yuan, reflecting strong market engagement [5]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are advised to utilize futures for hedging against price fluctuations, ensuring stable operations and profitability [3][6]. - Effective hedging strategies include setting target prices, adjusting hedge ratios dynamically, and locking in costs and sales prices through futures [5][6]. - The integration of futures in both procurement and sales processes is crucial for managing inventory risks and maintaining stable business operations [6].
宝城期货有色日报:有色震荡上行-20250910
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 10:06
姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡上行,持仓量变化不大。宏观层面,美元指数日内 下行,利好铜价。产业层面,SMM 报道,日内采购情绪进一步走弱, 进口货源仍未消化,持货商继续低价出货,沪铜现货升水进一步走 跌。短期关注 8 万关口压力。 沪铝 今日铝价偏强震荡,持仓量有所上升。宏观层面,美元指数日内 走弱,带动有色板块偏强运行。产业层面,随着铝价上涨,下游接货 意愿较低。技术上,关注 20800 关口压力。 沪镍 今日镍价震荡上行 ...
有色套利早报-20250905
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:24
免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分析结论合理,但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据,客户应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担期货交 易后果,凡据此入市者,我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权,不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我们均不承担任何责任。 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16675 1946 8.60 三月 16870 1991 11.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.85 -504.01 跨期套利跟踪 2025/09/05 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -300 -330 -390 -420 理 ...
宏观冷却,有色板块走弱
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 08:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, copper prices declined with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 80,000 mark. The domestic market has cooled significantly, with obvious capital outflows in both the equity and commodity markets. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" arrive, industrial support will strengthen. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, with the position volume continuously decreasing. The domestic market has cooled, and there are capital outflows in the equity and commodity markets. In the industry, the mid - stream electrolytic aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, while the aluminum rod inventory is slowly decreasing. As China enters the peak industrial seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average when the aluminum price drops [5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices showed a downward trend today, with a slight decrease in the position volume. Non - ferrous metals generally declined at the macro level. At the industrial level, the impact of the demonstration in Indonesia has been digested by the market. In the short term, the weakening macro environment and the digestion of industrial disturbances have led to the decline of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4% compared with the previous week, and new orders also decreased by 0.81 percentage points. Currently, the industry has not shown signs of a peak season. Weak demand and high copper prices are intertwined, and both the operating rate and orders continue to decline [8]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,700 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][36][37].
有色商品日报-20250904
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 04:59
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 9 月 4 日) 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面,美国 7 月 JOLTS 就业人数录得 718.1 万人,低于市场 | | | 预期 738.2 万人和前值 743.7 万人,低靡的就业数据继续强化了 9 月降息预期。美联储 | | | 理事沃勒表示未来 3 到 6 个月可多次降息。基本面方面,"金九银十"是国内传统消费 | | 铜 | 旺季,在国内进口连续不及预期及废铜政策不明朗下开工率偏低下,精铜消费有望得 | | | 到较大提振,关注国内去库速度。海外部分国家债市的抛售潮及金价的异动使得市场 | | | 避险情绪走高,铜价表现偏谨慎,但基本面继续改善下,应仍偏乐观看待,重心有望继 | | | 续抬升,但也需要注意美衰退预期及高铜价对下游需求也形成制约,价格上行高度或 | | | 受限。 | | 铝 | 氧化铝震荡偏弱,隔夜 AO2601 收于 2959 元/吨,跌幅 2.15%,持仓增仓 13870 手至 26.2 | | | 万手。沪铝震荡偏弱,隔夜 AL2510 收于 20725 元/ ...
20250903申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250903
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 03:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of positive and negative factors. The supply of concentrates is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow. The power industry, PV installation, auto production and sales show positive growth, while the growth of home appliance output slows and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, leading to positive smelting profits and expected continuous increase in smelting output. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with factors such as inventory increase and mixed downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - **Market Performance**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 9,981 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 69.58 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 158,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry maintains positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,866 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 20.44 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 55,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 625 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising overall, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets increased. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,622 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 5.70 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 481,050 tons with no daily change [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 122,220 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,140 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 15,232 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 185.03 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 209,844 tons, with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 1,994 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 43.10 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 259,550 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 273,660 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,110 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 34,735 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 140.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 2,155 tons, with a daily increase of 145 tons [2].
中辉有色观点-20250903
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 01:44
中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美联储独立性被质疑,美国数据支持降息,特兰普关税被裁定不合法,9 月份降息在 | | ★★★ | 做多 | 即,关注区间上方 803、810 附近表现。中长期,主要国家货币政策宽松,央行继续 | | | | 买黄金,地缘格局重塑,黄金有资产配置需求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | | | 短期白银跟随黄金市场波动,资金流入较多,破历史新高,白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 做多 | 积极,中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化,使得需求坚挺,供给端增量有限,供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显,白银向上趋势不变。但是谨防短期美元流动性风险 | | | | 宏微共振,沪铜重回 8 万大关,建议多单继续持有,新入场回调轻仓试多,中长期, | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源,铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发,对铜长期看好。 | | ★★ | | | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极,沪锌跟涨外盘,但国内需求疲软库存累库叠加政策真空期, | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 ...
有色套利早报-20250903
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 23:57
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 3, 2025, aiming to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 80140, LME price is 9818, and the ratio is 8.15; March price in China is 79600, LME price is 9888, and the ratio is 8.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.13, with a profit of - 38.94, and the profit for spot export is - 423.72 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22150, LME price is 2872, and the ratio is 7.71; March price in China is 22315, LME price is 2852, and the ratio is 5.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.60, with a profit of - 2542.17 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20710, LME price is 2624, and the ratio is 7.89; March price in China is 20710, LME price is 2619, and the ratio is 7.92. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.41, with a profit of - 1369.16 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 122000, LME price is 15185, and the ratio is 8.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.20, with a profit of - 1683.11 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16650, LME price is 1953, and the ratio is 8.56; March price in China is 16865, LME price is 1996, and the ratio is 11.16. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.85, with a profit of - 555.67 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are - 110, - 170, - 180, and - 220 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1308, and 1715 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 175, 165, 165, and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 453, and 573 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 60, 50, 35, and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 330, 445, and 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 40, 55, 55, and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are - 690, - 490, - 340, and - 190 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 640, and the theoretical spread is 5672 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 305 and - 415 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 205 and 633 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 0 and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 147 and 276 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 160 and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 144 and 255 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.57, 3.84, 4.72, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) are 3.48, 3.81, 5.01, 0.91, 1.31, and 0.70 respectively [5].
有色商品日报-20250902
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue rising in the future, but the upside may be limited due to concerns about a US recession and high copper prices affecting downstream demand [1]. - Alumina is recommended to be sold on rallies, while electrolytic aluminum may have strong upward momentum in September, and there is room for the spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel prices are likely to continue to oscillate with an upward bias as the marginal improvement in nickel - iron and the new energy sectors becomes more evident [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated weakly. A rising gold price may indicate increased risk aversion and potential for copper value re - evaluation. Three factors to watch include the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season in China, and the implementation of anti - involution policies in some domestic industries. However, the US recession expectation and high copper prices may limit the upside of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. Alumina production resumption is increasing, and inventory is piling up. It is recommended to sell on rallies but be cautious about chasing the decline. Downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum may exceed expectations during the peak season, and the industry profit is shifting from upstream to downstream. There is room for the spread of aluminum alloy to repair [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. The demand for ternary materials in the new energy sector is increasing, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. First - grade nickel inventory decreased, and consumption increased significantly. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 79,830 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan/ton from August 29. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 73,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE copper inventories changed slightly [3]. Aluminum - On September 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the inventory of alumina decreased by 0.7 million tons [4][5]. Nickel - On September 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons [4][5]. Zinc - On September 1, 2025, the main settlement price of zinc increased by 0.5%. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 1, 2025, the main settlement price of tin decreased by 0.7%. The inventory of SHFE tin increased by 75 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those on spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME and SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][15]