Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Market Review - **Futures Market Performance**: The main contract of SHFE zinc, 2512, closed at 22,675 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 0.29%, with reduced trading volume and increased open interest, which rose by 528 lots to 113,005 lots. The domestic zinc ore supply is on a downward trend due to seasonal production cuts in northern mines and some mines' active production control after completing their annual plans. The zinc ore TC is expected to weaken. The LME zinc inventory increased by 175 tons to 33,825 tons, and the 0 - 3 Back structure weakened to $98.23/ton. The domestic market has basically shifted to quoting the December contract. With continuous zinc ingot exports, the domestic social inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has remained firm. The Shanghai market quoted a premium of 50 yuan/ton for the December contract, the Tianjin market quoted a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market quoted a discount of 95 yuan/ton for the December contract. Against the backdrop of the realized increase in exports, the supply - demand pattern has improved marginally. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the impact of the tight - mine logic on the zinc price, which provides some support. The SHFE zinc has rebounded weakly from the low level, and the upper track of the short - term Bollinger Band forms resistance [7]. Industry News - **Price Information on November 6, 2025**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,595 - 22,695 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,595 - 22,715 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,525 - 22,625 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 90 - 100 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract, Baiyin was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract [8]. - **Regional Market Conditions**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,565 - 22,655 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract and a premium of 70 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,450 - 22,630 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded at 22,620 - 22,700 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 0 - 100 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract, and Zijin was quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was traded at 22,440 - 22,550 yuan/ton, with a discount of 95 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is experiencing significant inflows and reaching new highs in share volume, indicating strong investor interest in nonferrous metals [1][2] - The IMCI index, which the Dachen Nonferrous ETF tracks, shows strong medium to long-term allocation value, driven by the supply-demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum [2][5] Group 2 - Copper is facing a structural supply shortage due to declining ore grades, insufficient capital expenditure, and production disruptions, while demand is bolstered by new technologies and AI, leading to an annual demand increase of nearly 1 million tons [3] - Aluminum demand is surging due to the global data center construction boom, with projected capacity needs tripling by 2030, significantly increasing aluminum requirements for cooling systems and power facilities [4] - The IMCI index focuses on copper and aluminum, which together account for approximately 65% of its weight, benefiting from rigid supply and new demand dynamics [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products, including electrolytic copper, aluminum, alumina, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium carbonate, along with their spot - futures spreads and changes [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 85335, down 1255; SMM flat - water copper premium is - 5, up 40 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21300, down 140; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20, down 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2840, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 318 dollars, unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17325, up 75; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 125, up 45. Recycled refined lead average price is 17275, up 100; refined - scrap spread is 50, down 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change of 20, while the average price data is not fully shown [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 281300, down 4100; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 520, up 150. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 269300, down 4100; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.73% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 119950, down 1000; 1 imported nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 400, unchanged. SMM electrowon nickel average price is 119650, down 950; SMM electrowon nickel premium is 100, up 50. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122350, down 800; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 2800, up 200 [1]. Silicon - The average price of a certain silicon - related product is 9050, unchanged; its premium is 1490, up 190 [1]. Polysilicon - N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 80500, down 400; N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 3320, up 1140 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78300, the difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200, unchanged. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price data is not fully shown; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change, but the specific price data is not fully shown [1].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 5, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Daily Report on Non-ferrous Metals [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views Copper - Today, copper prices dived in the morning and stabilized and rebounded during the day, with a slight decline in open interest. Recently, the global macro - atmosphere has weakened, putting significant pressure on copper prices, but the intraday market sentiment has improved. At the industrial level, as copper prices declined, the downstream restocking willingness has recovered, and the spot premium has strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at 85,000 [6]. Aluminum - Today, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, indicating an increase in the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. Recently, the macro - atmosphere has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has declined collectively, but aluminum prices are relatively resistant to decline. At the industrial level, the inventory of downstream aluminum rods has decreased, while the inventory of mid - stream electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Nickel - Today, nickel prices first declined and then rose, regaining the 120,000 mark in the afternoon. Recently, non - ferrous metals have seen an increase in open interest during the decline and a decrease during the rebound, showing a significant difference in volume - price relationship compared with copper and aluminum. The weakness at the industrial level has made funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 5, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper was reported at 85,335 yuan/ton. According to copper enameled wire enterprises, as copper prices have fallen, the downstream order volume has increased recently, and the enameled wire orders have improved compared with last week [10]. Nickel - On November 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [26][28][30] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [39][41][44]

Report Information - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Daily Report on Non-ferrous Metals [4] - Report Industry: Non-ferrous Metals [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices decreased with a reduction in positions, showing an accelerated downward trend in the afternoon. The domestic macro environment weakened, leading to declines in both commodities and the stock market. At the industrial level, as copper prices dropped significantly, the downstream replenishment willingness may increase. Technically, copper prices fell below the 10-day moving average, indicating strong downward momentum [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices decreased with a reduction in positions, but rebounded significantly at the end of the session. The domestic macro environment weakened, causing declines in commodities and the stock market. The rebound at the end of the session recovered the afternoon losses, demonstrating its resistance to decline. At the industrial level, electrolytic aluminum showed a slight inventory build-up on Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel prices decreased with an increase in positions, and the main contract price fell below the 120,000 yuan mark. The domestic macro environment weakened, resulting in declines in commodities and the stock market. The weakness at the industrial level made funds more inclined to short nickel to hedge long positions in non-ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the long-short game at the 120,000 yuan mark [8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Glencore plans to gradually shut down its Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada, due to high environmental upgrade and operating costs. Glencore operates the Horne smelter (with a rough smelting capacity of 200,000 tons) and the CCR copper refinery in Quebec. The Horne smelter processes copper concentrate into copper anodes, which are then further processed into copper cathodes by the CCR refinery. On November 3, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 203,000 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last Thursday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 4, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,300 - 123,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -200 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum monthly spread, average price of aluminum premium/discount in the Yangtze River spot market, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][26][30] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]

每经AI快讯，11月1日，LME期铜收跌30美元，报10888美元/吨。LME期铝收涨20美元，报2884美元/ 吨。LME期锌收涨18美元，报3056美元/吨。LME期铅收跌5美元，报2017美元/吨。LME期镍收跌4美 元，报15226美元/吨。LME期锡收涨294美元，报36086美元/吨。LME期钴收平，报48570美元/吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the strong side, and zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.47%, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, supporting copper prices in the long term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.11%, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventories increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Overall, zinc supply - demand differences are not obvious, and prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's previous closing price was 88,680 yuan/ton with a basis of - 65 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,270 yuan/ton with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton; nickel was 121,250 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,520 yuan/ton; lead was 17,370 yuan/ton with a basis of - 210 yuan/ton; tin was 286,170 yuan/ton with a basis of - 470 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Data**: For copper, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 19.66 dollars/ton, and the inventory was 134,575 tons with a daily change of - 1,400 tons; for aluminum, it was 2,870 dollars/ton, - 0.99 dollars/ton, 465,650 tons, and - 3,625 tons respectively; for zinc, 3,070 dollars/ton, 132.96 dollars/ton, 35,250 tons, and - 1,800 tons; for nickel, 15,405 dollars/ton, - 203.99 dollars/ton, 251,436 tons, and 198 tons; for lead, 2,019 dollars/ton, - 35.12 dollars/ton, 229,675 tons, and - 2,700 tons; for tin, 36,105 dollars/ton, 10.02 dollars/ton, 2,700 tons, and - 25 tons [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant inflow of funds into the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ), which has attracted a total of 964 million yuan over the past 33 days, indicating a shift of capital from the gold and silver markets to the nonferrous metals sector due to its solid supply-demand dynamics [1] - On October 29, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF recorded a single-day subscription amount of 100 million yuan, raising its total fund size to 2.473 billion yuan, marking a new high in both share and fund size since its inception [1] - The global copper supply shortage is intensifying, with disruptions such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia and accidents at the El Teniente mine in Chile, leading to a forecasted decline in global copper mine growth to 1.4% by 2025 and a potential supply-demand gap of 150,000 tons by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy environment is favorable, as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29, which is expected to weaken the dollar and enhance the financial attributes of commodities [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" in China emphasizes resource security, with policies in renewable energy and infrastructure likely to boost demand for copper and aluminum [2] - The copper price is expected to rise due to a structural tightness cycle, with demand shifting from traditional industrial sectors to technology and energy sectors, driven by global energy transition and AI revolution [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 30, 2025, to assist in identifying potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 30, 2025, the domestic spot price was 87,770, the LME spot price was 11,095, and the spot price ratio was 7.84; the domestic three - month price was 88,700, the LME three - month price was 11,115, and the three - month price ratio was 7.90. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,280, the LME spot price was 3,198, and the spot price ratio was 6.97; the domestic three - month price was 22,455, the LME three - month price was 3,065, and the three - month price ratio was 5.66. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, with a loss of 4,825.07 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,170, the LME spot price was 2,904, and the spot price ratio was 7.29; the domestic three - month price was 21,330, the LME three - month price was 2,905, and the three - month price ratio was 7.31. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.30, with a loss of 2,941.11 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,150, the LME spot price was 1,989, and the spot price ratio was 8.65; the domestic three - month price was 17,380, the LME three - month price was 2,024, and the three - month price ratio was 11.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.70, with a loss of 112.78 [3]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,950, the LME spot price was 15,121, and the spot price ratio was 8.13. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.16, with a loss of 1,245.29 [1]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 1,720, 1,710, 1,650, and 1,630 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 537, 972, 1,416, and 1,860 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 155, 180, 210, and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 175, 210, 225, and 230 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 569 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 5, 15, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, and 536 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1,240, 1,390, 1,620, and 1,870 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was - 890, and the theoretical spread was 5,929 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 740 and 980 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214 and 950 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 5 and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 156 and 286 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 225 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 166 and 280 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Ratio of Different Metals**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.95, 4.16, 5.10, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts), they were 3.61, 3.86, 5.49, 0.93, 1.42, and 0.66 respectively [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: On October 28, 2025, Shanghai copper showed weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon, with the main contract price dropping to around 87,000. The macro - environment turned bearish in the afternoon, leading to a general decline in the non - ferrous sector. Copper decreased with reduced positions, indicating strong short - term profit - taking intentions of long - positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **沪铝**: On the same day, Shanghai aluminum also had weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon. Affected by the bearish macro - environment in the afternoon and the general decline of the non - ferrous sector, aluminum decreased with reduced positions, and short - term long - positions had strong profit - taking intentions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [7]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly on this day, with a significant decline accompanied by increased positions at the end of the session. Previously, when the macro - environment improved, non - ferrous metals prices rose, but nickel only had a weak rebound with reduced positions. With the macro - environment turning bearish today, nickel prices declined with increased positions. In terms of funds, nickel is still an under - allocated short position in the non - ferrous sector. Technically, attention should be paid to the low in October for support [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Industrial Online data, in September 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; sales were 10.884 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. Among them, domestic sales were 5.949 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%; exports were 4.935 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 28, 2025, the price range of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 100 yuan/ton. Due to the change of quotation month, both premiums decreased [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides multiple copper - related charts, including copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].