据新华社，世界卫生组织2日发起倡议，呼吁各国通过征税大幅提高烟酒和含糖 饮料的价格，以增加公 共收入，减少慢性病。倡议名为"三三五"，意为"到2035年落实三项健康税"，旨在通过征税"到2035年 将烟草、酒和含糖饮料这三类不健康产品中任一类、两类或全部三类的实际价格提高至少50%"。具体 措施将考虑各国不同国情。世卫组织说，这样做预计可在今后10年内，在减少不健康产品消费的同时， 在全球增加1万亿美元公共收入。 ...

Market Insights - The US ADP employment numbers unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with a prior expectation of an increase of 98,000. The revised May data showed an increase of only 29,000 [1][2] - A group of billionaires from Silicon Valley has applied for a charter bank license in the US, aiming to establish a national bank focused on supporting startups in the cryptocurrency sector [1] - The UN reported that 2023 has seen some of the most extensive and destructive droughts on record, highlighting severe challenges posed by climate change and resource pressures [1] Economic Indicators - Australia's retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May, recovering from zero growth in the previous month but falling short of the market expectation of 0.5% [3] - South Korea's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, surpassing the market expectation of 2.1% and marking a return to above 2% inflation after two months [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.56% to $3,368.7 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.08% to $36.79 per ounce [6] - Light crude oil futures for August delivery increased by $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a rise of 3.06%, while Brent crude oil futures for September delivery also rose by $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, up 2.98% [6] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index fell by 0.05% to 96.777, with the euro trading at 1.1800 against the dollar, up from 1.1781, and the British pound at 1.3636, down from 1.3738 [7] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1670 against the dollar, down 52 basis points from the previous trading day [7]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 01 日 美国 Q2 或进入主动去库 —2025 年 4 月美国行业库存数据点评 频率：每月 事件：2025 年 7 月 1 日，BEA 发布 2025 年 4 月美国分行业库存和销售数 据。4 月美国库存总额同比 3.37%，前值 3.43%；4 月销售总额同比 3.74%， 前值 4.04%。4 月数据显示美国库存周期初步向主动去库切换。美国本应于去 年底到今年初进入主动去库阶段，但美国关税预期推动"抢进口"，且工业品 （上游为主）和消费品（汽车除外）抢进口明显超出季节性、或透支未来需 求。往后看，尽管关税因素仍有不确定性，但补库透支下美国库存周期或于 Q2 向主动去库存靠拢。 1）石油、天然气与消费用燃料：23 年 7 月-24 年 5 月处于主动补库，24 年 6 月进入主动去库，截至 25 年 4 月处于主动去库。 2）化学制品：24 年 8 月-25 年 3 月处于被动补库，25 年 4 月或进入主动 去库。 3）建筑材料：24 年 2-9 月处于主动补库，24 年 10 月进入被动补库，截 至 25 年 4 月处于被动补库。 4）金属和采矿 ...

1）根据我们6 月19 日发布的新型烟草深度报告，伴随HNB 产品推新（6 月9日Glo Hilo 上市日本、日本 烟草5 月底推出Ploom Aura）、用户体验提升，其对传统卷烟消费群体的转化率和粘性会变得更强， HNB 产业渗透率有望加速提升（目前全球不到6%）；而HNB 对青少年吸引力较弱，同时具备不容易 拉新、税收体系完善、减害性容易论证等特点，其渗透率提升天花板较高。 2）复盘IQOS 历史产品沿革，10 余年时间进行了大小7 次迭代，最新的Iluma i系列在24 年3 月发布（电 磁感应加热技术在21 年8 月发布），根据过往迭代周期推算，我们认为26 年的新品或有较大技术迭代 与改进，看好其销售表现。 PMI 欧洲投资者发布会再次强化HNB 长足发展信心 6 月24 日，菲莫国际（PMI）在欧洲举行投资者交流活动，以欧洲为样本分享了一些重要的数据： 1）IQOS 在欧洲的获客渠道中，雾化电子烟的比重上升、达到了20%。（完整结构：60%来自可燃卷 烟、20%来自雾化烟、15%来自其他HNB 用户、5%来自口含烟），表明HNB 对欧洲的雾化烟消费群体 吸引力正在提升。 2）在欧洲，Poly-U ...

内容概要：中国是世界上最大的香烟生产国和消费国。随着人们健康意识的增强，越来越多的人开始关 注吸烟对健康的影响。在此背景下，市场为了迎合消费者对健康的需求和呼声，衍生了一系列声称可以 降低吸烟危害的香烟过滤嘴等产品。据有关数据表明，使用过滤嘴的香烟相比未使用过滤嘴的香烟，吸 烟者吸入的有害物质减少了很多，这使得过滤嘴成为吸烟者的一种保护措施，有助于降低吸烟对健康的 短期和长期影响。因此，香烟过滤嘴受到越来越多消费者的喜爱和追捧。据统计，2024年中国香烟过滤 嘴行业市场规模达到1791.55亿元，同比上涨27.93%。 相关上市企业：皖维高新（600063）、东材科技（601208）、天茂集团（000627）、宝丰能源 （600989）、金发科技（600143）、道恩股份（002838）、中国石油（601857）、中国石化 （600028）、宜宾纸业（600793）等。 相关企业：南通烟滤嘴有限责任公司、温州市中邦烟具制造有限公司、温州市点诚轻工制品有限公司、 深圳市色腾实业有限公司、深圳市德昌海绵制品有限公司、绍兴易瑞普健康科技有限公司、重庆黔龙卷 烟材料有限公司、湖北金叶玉阳化纤有限公司、湖南吉首市民族烟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global smoking rate has significantly decreased from 22.3% to 16.4% between 2007 and 2023, marking a 26% relative decline, yet over 7 million people still die annually from tobacco-related diseases [3][4]. Group 1: Global Tobacco Control Progress - The World Health Organization's MPOWER measures have seen substantial adoption, with the number of countries implementing at least one measure increasing from 44 in 2008 to 155 in 2024, covering over 6.1 billion people [3]. - Graphic health warnings on cigarette packaging have made notable progress, with 56% of countries implementing such warnings by 2024, covering approximately 5 billion people, or 62% of the global population [4]. - The report emphasizes the need to expand graphic warnings to all tobacco products and to enforce plain packaging regulations to combat misleading marketing [4]. Group 2: Challenges in Tobacco Control - The emergence of electronic cigarettes and innovative marketing strategies by the tobacco industry pose new challenges for tobacco control efforts [5][6]. - In 2023, tobacco use resulted in approximately 7.36 million deaths globally, with a significant portion occurring in low- and middle-income countries [5]. - Over 30 million adolescents aged 13-15 are reported to be using tobacco products, with around 12 million using e-cigarettes in countries where surveys were conducted [5]. Group 3: China's Tobacco Control Efforts - China's smoking rate has decreased to 23.2% in 2024, down 0.9 percentage points from 2022, reflecting steady progress in tobacco control [7]. - The implementation of smoke-free regulations in 254 cities has protected 229 million people from secondhand smoke, with the exposure rate dropping from 76.3% in 2015 to 46.5% in 2024 [7][8]. - Public support for smoke-free policies has reached a historical high, with over 90% of the population favoring legislation to ban smoking in indoor public spaces [8]. Group 4: Economic Impact of Tobacco Use - Tobacco-related diseases impose a significant economic burden, with costs reaching 15.2 trillion yuan in 2018, surpassing the 1.16 trillion yuan in tobacco tax revenue [9]. - Enhancing tobacco tax rates and protecting the public from secondhand smoke could significantly advance global tobacco control efforts [9]. Group 5: Youth Engagement in Tobacco Control - Youth are increasingly recognized as vital agents of change in tobacco control, with innovative initiatives being implemented in schools to raise awareness about tobacco hazards [10][12]. - Creative approaches such as debates, theme speeches, and social media campaigns are effectively promoting smoke-free culture among young people [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a strong rebound with a significant inflow of funds into ETFs, reaching a total scale of over 4.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of 15% [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI A500 ETF (563360) has attracted substantial capital, with a net inflow of 11.279 billion yuan over just five trading days, achieving an average daily trading volume of 2.55 billion yuan [1] - As of June 27, 2023, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI A500 ETF's scale surpassed 20.256 billion yuan, making it the largest in its category, with a total share count of 19.898 billion [1] - The fund's share count increased by 2.613 billion shares year-to-date, reflecting a change rate of 15.12% [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Global allocation funds have reached historical highs in U.S. equities, while China's position remains at the bottom, creating potential for long-term capital inflow into Chinese stocks if macroeconomic conditions continue to improve [2] Group 3: Fund Characteristics - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI A500 ETF offers a low-cost investment option with a management fee of 0.15% per year and a custody fee of 0.05% per year, making it one of the most competitively priced equity index products in the A-share market [3] - The fund has a quarterly dividend assessment mechanism, providing investors with flexible capital management options [3] Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI A500 Index selects 500 securities with larger market capitalizations and better liquidity from various industries, focusing on sectors such as electronics, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and national defense [4] - The index's major weighted stocks include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance, among others, reflecting a diverse industry representation [5] Group 5: Growth and Dividend Attributes - The CSI A500 Index exhibits superior dividend growth characteristics, with higher levels of dividend yield and a greater proportion of companies distributing cash dividends compared to the broader index [8] - The index includes leading companies across various sectors, which are expected to benefit from China's modernization process and increased market concentration due to government policies [8]

案件办理方面，在分级分档管理的激励下，市场管理员们积极钻研业务，案件办理效率和质量双提升。 他们主动挖掘案件线索，在复杂案件的侦破中屡建奇功，为维护市场秩序提供了有力保障。 为进一步提升专卖队伍综合能力素质，充分激发专卖人员工作积极性、主动性和责任感，武汉市汉阳区 烟草专卖局(以下简称：汉阳烟草)在市场管理员岗位实施了"分级分档"管理方案，正式运行半年以来， 取得了显著成效，为专卖队伍建设注入了强大动力。 基础工作方面，全区市场管理员的基础工作完成度大幅提高，凭借精细的客户管理策略，实现了对客户 群体的精准覆盖与高效服务。在市场净化工作上，通过加大巡查力度与创新监管方式，市场违规率得到 有效控制，市场秩序更加规范有序。 精神风貌方面，在专卖队伍内部营造出"比、学、赶、帮、超"的浓厚氛围，从变"要我干"为"我要干"， 工作积极性、主动性和责任感空前高涨，大家主动学习业务知识，提升专业技能，努力在工作中争先创 优。 汉阳烟草通过市场管理员分级分档管理方案的实施，成功构建起一套科学合理的专卖人才评价体系，实 现了专卖队伍建设与企业高质量发展的良性互动，为烟草事业的持续发展奠定了坚实基础。(武汉汉阳 烟草：吴犇) 宣 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 Hilo 将于 9 月在日本全国发售，关注 HNB 行 业成长性机会 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 06 月 30 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -1% 7% 15% 23% 31% 39% 47% 55% 63% 2024/7/1 2024/10/29 2025/2/26 2025/6/26 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《6 ...

消费策略&组合配置：新消费创造成长主线，结构性牛市曙 光已现 20260629 摘要 中国经济增长引擎缺失，但出口复苏有望改善国内经济活动。企业偿债 现金流增速下降，资产负债表修复过半，出口正向冲击或带动高周转消 费修复，个人所得税反弹预示居民收入缓慢修复。 7 月投资策略应规避流动性驱动资产，关注基本面改善的服务消费和高 周转商品消费。新消费核心驱动力在于创造新场景和业态，关注高周转、 低杠杆的服务性消费及耐用消费品出口。 内需方面，消费板块投资偏向"红利加"品种，关注情绪价值消费（潮 玩、宠物）、功能价值消费（AI+）、消费出海和渠道变革（海澜之家 等）。 商贸零售面临供给过剩和需求不足挑战，关注新需求带来的边际机会， 包括传统渠道变革和即时零售崛起。新需求集中于服务性消费，跨境出 海企业需关注供应链、品牌溢价和渠道溢价能力。 2025 年 618 电商大促符合预期，抖音增速超预期，呈现全域协同趋势， 国补品类是增长动力，即时零售表现突出。线下零售渠道调整加速，永 辉超市调改店规模化，胖东来模式门店数量预计快速增长。 Q&A 当前宏观经济背景下，消费板块面临哪些挑战与机遇，尤其是在流动性与基本 面层面？ ...