Core Insights - The event themed "New Service and New Supply" aims to promote the development of the service industry in Henan Province, showcasing innovative business models and successful case studies [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Innovations - Mixue Ice City has established a new supply model for fresh tea drinks through "vertical integration + scale effect," resulting in low costs and high sales volume [1]. - Zhongdamen International Logistics Group has innovated a cross-border logistics model using "pre-clearance + full cargo charter," reducing port stay times and promoting the integration of logistics, trade, and data [1]. - Strength Diamond has pioneered an integrated model of "R&D + manufacturing + services + cultural tourism," effectively driving the entire value chain from raw diamonds to end consumer products [1]. Group 2: Service Industry Development - Henan Province has recognized 129 new service supply brand enterprises and 61 key projects, with 75 new enterprises added to the reserve, creating a robust service industry matrix [3]. - The 58 exemplary enterprises include 16 production service models that leverage digital transformation, 21 lifestyle service benchmarks enhancing consumer quality, and 21 pioneers in service-oriented manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Innovation - Henan Xiangyu Medical Equipment Co., Ltd. shared its achievements in the fields of rehabilitation medical layout and smart elderly care [4]. - The Henan Museum has developed over 2,000 cultural and creative products, creating jobs for 15,000 people, showcasing the potential of cultural innovation [6]. - The province aims to focus on key industries and weak links during the 14th Five-Year Plan, implementing a new service supply cultivation project to foster high-quality service enterprises [6]. Group 4: Case Studies of New Supply Models - Notable case studies include Mixue Ice City, which aims to create a global supply of affordable beverages, and Banu Hot Pot, which integrates product and service innovation in the restaurant industry [8]. - Other examples include Yuanfang Smart Logistics, which leads modernization in logistics through digital transformation, and Zhengzhou Sunshine Home Service, which enhances community services through a unique operational model [8].

Group 1 - The core theme of the event held in Shangqiu City is "New Supply of Services and New Stage of Services," focusing on the integration of government, academia, enterprises, and finance to explore new trends and dynamics in service industry development [1][2] - The event released the "2025 New Service New Supply Brand Enterprise Typical Case Collection," showcasing innovative supply chain models and service networks from various companies, including Mixue Ice City and Zhongda International Logistics Group [1][2] - The initiative aims to cultivate a robust ecosystem for innovative service industry development, with a focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of services [2][4] Group 2 - The provincial government has recognized 129 new service supply brand enterprises and 61 key projects, with an additional 75 enterprises in reserve, indicating a strong commitment to developing the service sector [2][3] - The typical cases highlighted include 16 production service exemplars like Fanrui Cloud Intelligence, 21 lifestyle service benchmarks such as Mixue Ice City, and 21 pioneers in service-oriented manufacturing like Power Diamond [2][3] - The event emphasized the importance of digital transformation and innovation in driving service upgrades, as demonstrated by companies like Henan Xiangyu Medical Equipment and Luohe Weilang Trading [3][4] Group 3 - The ongoing technological changes and innovative business models are leading to a new strategic development phase for the service industry, with a focus on key industries and areas needing improvement [4] - The provincial development and reform commission plans to leverage various policies and funds to cultivate high-quality, digitally empowered, and integrated service enterprises [4] - The goal is to establish a robust ecosystem for service industry innovation, enhancing the competitiveness of Henan's brands both domestically and internationally [4]

12月2日，由茶饮垂类媒体"咖门"主办的"咖i7·2026万有饮力年度大会"在上海宝华万豪酒店举行。本次大会以"韧性见未来"为主题，汇聚了饮品产业链上下 游的众多知名品牌创始人与投资人，共同探讨行业穿越周期、迈向未来的路径。 会上，美团龙珠基金创始合伙人朱拥华发表主题演讲《穿越周期：在重构中把握消费复苏机遇》。作为消费赛道最具影响力的投资人之一，朱拥华曾主导投 资古茗、蜜雪冰城、喜茶、Manner等知名现制茶饮、咖啡品牌。 在演讲中，他回顾了自己的投资历程，分享了对当前消费市场的深刻洞察，认为中国的消费能力和潜力都超过美国。并大胆预测，未来5-10年，奶茶与咖啡 赛道将新增约六家上市公司，合并市场规模有望达到万亿级别。 以下为演讲全文整理： 演讲人：朱拥华（美团龙珠基金创始合伙人、投委会成员） 大家好，我是美团龙珠的朱拥华。今天来参加这个活动，其实很有感触。我第一次参加咖门的活动是在2019年，当时一个偶然的安排，让我在会议室里和几 位朋友聊了三四个小时。正是那次的交流，促使我在那年年底投资了"古茗"。这家公司在今年成功上市，为我们的基金带来了可观的回报，账面盈利约50亿 元。所以，我内心非常感激。 但这次来 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming overseas sales peak for Pop Mart, driven by its IP influence, with participation in major events like the Thanksgiving parade enhancing brand visibility [4] - The cosmetics collection store channel is gradually recovering, with Naturals leading in both overall and domestic rankings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-care products [4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase, with the beauty care index up by 0.50%, retail index up by 3.45%, and social services index up by 3.92% during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 6.3%, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][18] - The average sales per store in the cosmetics collection channel grew by 1.2%, with customer transactions increasing by 9.4% [4] Investment Analysis Recommendations - Focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, and leading brands in ancient gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [16] - In the collectible toy sector, attention should be given to companies with strong IP creation and operational experience, such as Pop Mart [16] - For ready-to-drink tea, consider strong brands with extensive market coverage, like Mixue Group and Guming [16]

Core Viewpoint - The tea beverage industry is witnessing a shift as brands like Cha Yan Yue Se (茶颜悦色) are diversifying their product offerings beyond traditional tea drinks to include snacks and other items, adapting to the competitive landscape and changing consumer preferences [1][2][22]. Group 1: Company Strategies - Cha Yan Yue Se is transitioning from being solely reliant on fresh tea drinks to incorporating snacks as a new mainstay, responding to the intense competition in the beverage sector [2][22]. - The brand is leveraging online platforms to expand its reach, as its physical store locations limit consumer access, particularly in rural areas [4][12]. - Online sales of snacks and tea products have shown significant traction, with items like sea salt caramel bread cubes and instant tea powders achieving high sales volumes on platforms like Taobao and JD [4][7][20]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The trend of tea brands moving online is becoming prevalent, with competitors like Mi Xue Bing Cheng (蜜雪冰城) also engaging in e-commerce to enhance consumer interaction and brand visibility [10][21]. - The online marketplace is seen as a new battleground for tea brands, with various strategies being employed, such as selling ready-to-drink beverages or instant mixes, to cater to different consumer needs [20][22]. - The success of online initiatives by brands like Cha Yan Yue Se and Mi Xue Bing Cheng indicates that online marketing can positively impact brand awareness and sales without cannibalizing physical store revenue [21][22].

近日，现制茶饮品牌古茗搞起了百万免单活动。 "壕"气的古茗（01364.HK）不仅给消费者发福利，更为自家股东抛出"现金大礼包"——总金额超22亿港 元的特别股息。 其中，超七成股息将流向公司实控人及一致行动人，这场分红也被外界解读为"给老板们上缴利润"。 事实上，巨额分红并非首次出现，距离上次古茗大手笔"发钱"还不到一年时间。 2025年1月，即上市前夕，公司通过董事会决议案及股东决议案，向于2024年12月31日名列股东名册的 现有股东宣派17.4亿元的股息，此次股息以公司截至2024年9月30日的股份溢价及留存利润为基准。 粗略计算，古茗两次派息总额超41亿港元，其中约30亿港元流入了创始人团队手中。 值得注意的是，两次派息金额已超过了近一年半的累计利润。2025年上半年，古茗实现归母净利润 16.25亿元，去年全年为14.79亿元。一年半来公司积累的归母净利润约31亿元，尚不及两次分红金额。 同样，这笔分红资金也已超过其上市募集资金规模。2月12日，古茗正式在港交所挂牌交易，成为中国 新茶饮行业第三家上市公司，发行价为每股9.94港元，募集资金18.13亿港元。 不缺钱却还要上市融资，这一操作也遭部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International initiates coverage on Cha Baidao (02555) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 9.3, anticipating a recovery in fundamentals by mid-2025 through product innovation, marketing optimization, and franchisee operations after a business adjustment in 2024 [1] Company Background - Cha Baidao, founded by Wang Xiaokun in 2008 in Chengdu, Sichuan, is a leading ready-to-drink tea brand in China, with 8,465 global stores as of 1H25, including 8,444 in China and 21 overseas [1] - The brand holds an 8% market share in China's ready-to-drink tea segment, ranking third by GMV in 2023, and is the second-largest in the mass market segment with a 15.6% market share [1] Business Adjustment and Innovation - The ready-to-drink beverage industry is entering an adjustment phase in 2024, with Cha Baidao optimizing its business model to return to a growth trajectory in 1H25 [2] - The company is restructuring its business around product capabilities, with a dual-team approach in R&D leading to 55 new products launched in 1H25, significantly up from 21 in the same period of 2024 [3] - Marketing strategies are shifting from passive to proactive, with increased advertising spending and enhanced precision marketing to boost customer retention [3] - Operational improvements include optimizing existing franchisees and encouraging expansion into county-level markets, resulting in a shorter payback period for stores by approximately 1-2 months compared to 2024 [3] - Supply chain enhancements have led to next-day delivery for most stores and a broader range of self-produced raw materials [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company anticipates a high base effect in same-store sales due to delivery subsidies in 2025, with potential pressure in 2026 as subsidy levels decrease [4] - Cha Baidao plans to enhance same-store and single-store performance through channel expansion, product diversification, and increased marketing efforts [4] - Recent social security and tax policies are expected to promote a more regulated and sustainable industry, benefiting compliant leading brands like Cha Baidao [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at CNY 5.59 billion, 6.00 billion, and 6.55 billion, with adjusted net profits of CNY 840 million, 950 million, and 1.08 billion respectively [4] - The company is assigned a 15X PE valuation for 2025, leading to a target price of HKD 9.3 based on expected growth rates and industry average valuation levels [4]

从长期看，渗透率提升空间仍大，连锁化率与集中度持续提升。2023年，国内人均现制茶饮年消费量为 11杯，而中国香港及中国台湾地区则均超50杯。现制茶饮的渗透率成长空间广阔，随着未来新客群渗 透、消费频次提升，现制茶饮规模有望实现进一步增长。尤其是下沉市场的空间潜力大，2023年国内一 线城市的人均消费为27杯，二线及以下城市为不到10杯，引发龙头企业关注和深挖。从结构来看，行业 连锁化率与集中度持续提升，2023年中国现制茶饮连锁化率（门店口径）为56.1%，较2018年提升17.1 个百分点。近年来各头部品牌保持快速拓店，而中小品牌持续出清，预计行业集中度仍将持续提升。 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些 ...

广发证券批零社服首席分析师 嵇文欣 中国拥有悠久的茶文化和庞大的茶消费群体，但繁琐的传统沏茶步骤限制了消费者，特别是年轻群体对 茶的消费。现制茶饮的出现大大简化了制作过程，并通过不断优化产品获得更多年轻人青睐。在这一过 程中，产生了"珍珠奶茶"等经典产品。2015年，新茶饮概念横空出世，现制茶饮品牌开始使用原叶茶、 鲜奶、鲜果等优质原料，产品品质明显提升。尤其是随着头部茶饮品牌规模化发展和供应链升级，更多 消费者能够通过实惠的价格享受高品质产品，行业逐步实现结构性升级。 近些年标杆性企业的优秀表现，让资本市场进一步认识到现制茶饮行业的发展潜力，并将板块贴上了新 消费的标签。不少投资者也对这一赛道表现出了浓厚兴趣。针对现制茶饮行业，我们可以从供需两侧、 长短期驱动、短期外卖补贴影响等维度展开分析。 益，而部分中小品牌加盟商很可能出现增收不增利的情况。 随着外卖补贴大战趋于理性，市场担心后续同店营业额是否仍有增长支撑、明年4月起的同店营业额高 基数压力，以及补贴教育出的低价习惯或将使消费者对原价茶饮的接受度降低。基于对行业的分析，我 们认为：（1）头部品牌拳头产品优惠力度相对较低，做活动的产品大多为低价引流品，产 ...

Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in store expansion, with a total of 13.38 million existing stores and a net increase of 186 stores in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth rate of 0.14% [2][4]. Store Opening and Closing Summary - In October, 30 chain brands opened a total of 3,247 stores while closing 3,062, resulting in a net increase of 186 stores [2][4]. - The leading brand, Mixue Ice City, closed 804 stores, resulting in a net decrease of 68 stores, while maintaining 44,166 existing stores, a decline of 0.15% month-on-month [4][9]. - Gu Ming achieved a net increase of 215 stores, with a month-on-month growth rate of 1.69%, totaling 12,905 existing stores [4][9]. - Eleven brands reported positive net growth, with Hu Shang A Yi leading with a net increase of 271 stores, and Yi Dian Dian showing the fastest growth rate of 3.59% with a net increase of 140 stores, surpassing 4,000 stores [7]. Brand Performance - Significant closures were noted among brands, with Mixue Ice City leading in closures, followed by Tian La La with 341 closures and Gu Ming with 226 closures [9][14]. - Other brands like Shuyi Burned Immortal Grass and Bawang Tea Princess also saw closures exceeding 100 stores [14]. Market Expansion Trends - The expansion is primarily concentrated in second and third-tier cities, which account for 65.1% of new store openings, with third-tier cities leading with 754 new stores (23.2% of total) [17]. - In contrast, first-tier cities only saw 302 new stores, representing 9.3% of the total, indicating a continued penetration of new tea brands into lower-tier markets [17]. Special Location Insights - Campuses emerged as a key battleground for brand expansion, with Gu Ming adding 35 campus stores and Tian La La adding 30, contributing to a total of 125 new campus stores, which accounted for 71.84% of the total increase in campus stores for October [20]. - In shopping centers, brands like Bawang Tea Princess, Yi Dian Dian, and Hu Shang A Yi showed strong expansion, with net increases of 57, 43, and 40 stores respectively, while brands like Tea Hundred Road and Xi Tea experienced significant reductions [21]. Transportation Hub Expansion - Brands exhibited cautious expansion in transportation hubs, with only Bawang Tea Princess achieving a double-digit net increase, while other brands did not exceed six new stores [22].