Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities highlights the increasing demand for biodiesel in China and globally, driven by terminal demand growth and regulatory changes, particularly the implementation of the RED III directive in the EU starting in 2026 [1][4]. Domestic Market Developments - The first domestic B5 biodiesel injection for internal trade was completed on November 20, marking a significant step in the use of biodiesel in domestic shipping [2][3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's recent policy supports the blending of domestic biodiesel with marine fuel oil, which is expected to enhance the domestic biodiesel market [2]. International Market Trends - The "IMO net-zero framework" is anticipated to increase the demand for biodiesel, with projections indicating that Singapore's marine fuel injection could require millions of tons of biodiesel by 2030 [3]. - China's bonded marine fuel injection is expected to reach 1,988 million tons in 2024, with a potential increase of nearly 400 million tons in biodiesel demand if 20% biodiesel is blended [3]. Regulatory Changes in the EU - The RED III directive will raise the renewable energy consumption target in the EU from 32% to at least 42.5% by 2030, significantly increasing the demand for biodiesel, especially second-generation biodiesel [4]. - The removal of the double carbon reduction policy for used cooking oil (UCO) is expected to nearly double the demand for biodiesel and UCO in the EU [4]. Beneficiary Companies - Companies likely to benefit from these trends include Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH), Haineng Technology (300072.SZ), Jiaao Environmental Protection (603822.SZ), and Shanggou Environmental Energy (000803.SZ) [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, with EU and China prices reaching $2,500 and $2,960 per ton respectively, marking increases of 39% and 60% since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The profit margin for SAF in China is calculated to exceed 4,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong profitability in the sector [1] - The tightening supply of SAF is driven by the upcoming EU and UK verification of a 2% SAF blending ratio, alongside maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities like NESTE [2] Group 2 - The implementation of the RED III legislation in the EU starting in 2026 will raise carbon reduction targets and eliminate the double carbon credit policy for biodiesel produced from used cooking oil (UCO), leading to increased demand for biodiesel and UCO [3] - The projected demand for biodiesel produced from UCO in the EU is expected to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from 3.74 million tons in 2025 to an additional 4 million tons in 2026 [3] - The maritime sector is also expected to see increased demand for biodiesel, with new regulations requiring a shift towards electric or 100% biofuel-powered vessels by 2030 [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a sustained increase in demand for biodiesel driven by terminal demand growth and regulatory changes, particularly the implementation of the EU RED III directive starting in 2026, which is expected to significantly boost biodiesel demand [5][7] - The successful completion of China's first domestic B5 biodiesel injection for inland trade marks a significant step in increasing domestic biodiesel consumption, with projections indicating a substantial increase in demand for biodiesel in both domestic and international markets [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates a positive outlook for the biodiesel industry, with prices for first and second-generation biodiesel increasing by 11% and 24% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [5] - The global context of carbon reduction is expected to further enhance the demand for biodiesel, particularly in light of the EU's stricter carbon reduction targets [7] Regulatory Developments - The EU's RED III directive aims to increase the renewable energy consumption target from 32% to at least 42.5% by 2030, which will likely double the demand for biodiesel and its raw materials [7] - The cancellation of the double carbon reduction policy for used cooking oil (UCO) as a biodiesel feedstock is expected to further increase demand [7] Market Opportunities - The report identifies potential beneficiaries of the biodiesel demand surge, including companies like卓越新能, 海新能科, 嘉澳环保, and 山高环能 [7] - The anticipated increase in biodiesel demand is supported by both domestic initiatives and international regulatory frameworks, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the demand for biodiesel is expected to increase due to the EU's enhanced carbon reduction targets and the upcoming verification of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) blending ratios by the end of the year, leading to a tightening supply-demand situation in the SAF market [2][3]. Price and Profitability - As of November 19, the FOB prices for SAF in the EU and China are $2,500 and $2,960 per ton, respectively, representing increases of 39% and 60% compared to early 2025. The profit margin for SAF in China exceeds 4,000 RMB per ton [1][2]. Regulatory Changes - The EU will gradually implement the Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) starting in 2026, which raises carbon reduction targets and eliminates the double carbon reduction policy for biodiesel produced from used cooking oil (UCO). This is expected to significantly boost the demand for biodiesel and UCO [2][4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Neste plans to conduct maintenance on its Rotterdam and Singapore SAF production facilities in late 2025, which may further tighten the supply of SAF. The UK is currently at a 1.6% SAF blending ratio, still short of the 2% target, which will be assessed at the year's end [3][4]. Future Demand Projections - By 2027, global SAF demand is projected to reach 3-4 million tons, driven by the CORSIA requirements for member countries to implement SAF blending ratios. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) anticipates that global SAF demand could reach 40 million tons by 2050 [3][4]. Beneficiary Companies - Companies likely to benefit from these trends include Jiaao Environmental Protection (603822.SH), Shanggou Environmental Energy (000803.SZ), Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH), Haineng Technology (300072.SZ), and Pengyao Environmental Protection (300664.SZ) [5].

目前，棕榈油价格在经历了七八月份的一波上涨后，从 8 月 20 日开始进入震 荡下跌阶段，主要原因包括马来西亚和印尼市场产量增加、库存上升以及印度 市场部分被美豆油和阿根廷豆油抢占。中国市场方面，棕榈油与豆油之间的价 差也被大幅挤压，导致买兴不佳。在今年上半年达到绝对高点后，棕榈油价格 有所回调，目前主力合约已跌破 8,600 元，但在此位置有一定支撑。 从季节性 产量来看，马来西亚和印尼通常在 4 月至 10 月为增产季，而 11 月开始进入减 产季，因此未来几个月产量可能会下降。此外，印尼政府计划在 2026 年下半 年正式实施 B50 生物柴油政策，这将增加对棕榈油的需求。目前国际市场上 CPO 与豆油价差已达 45~50 美元，使得 CPO 具有一定性价比，不排除印度会 积极补库。 天气方面，预计 2026 年可能出现拉尼娜现象，这将导致干旱并影 响产量。中国华南地区 24 度现货棕榈油与豆油现货几乎同价，也具有一定性 棕榈油周期展望 20251114 摘要 印尼计划 2026 年下半年实施 B50 生物柴油政策，预计将显著增加棕榈 油需求，但短期内新增产能有限，可能导致供应缺口，需关注政策实施 进度 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the stable profitability and cash flow improvement in the municipal environmental sector, driven by debt reduction and water price adjustments, leading to opportunities in high-dividend environmental assets. Recommended companies include Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, Green Power, Junxin Co., Yongxing Co., Hongcheng Environment, Conch Venture, Everbright Environment, and Yuehai Investment [4][27]. - The transportation sector's carbon reduction initiatives are fully underway, with the biodiesel industry expected to benefit significantly from policies such as the EU RED3, which will increase demand for biodiesel in road transport, shipping, and aviation [4][33]. - AI empowerment is driving secondary growth in the municipal environmental sector, with significant potential in waste management and autonomous sanitation. The integration of AI in waste-to-energy projects can enhance profitability and cash flow, with examples showing net profit increases of 83% to 146% [4][27]. Group 2 - The report details the stable revenue and income from municipal water and solid waste services, which are essential for urban operations. The typical operating model involves exclusive rights for 25-30 years, ensuring long-term revenue stability [10][11]. - Water price adjustments are accelerating, with various regions implementing increases that can enhance the profitability of water companies. For instance, cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen have proposed significant price hikes, with increases ranging from 13% to 31% [19][21]. - The report provides a summary of high-dividend companies in the environmental sector, showcasing their market capitalization, PE ratios, net profits, and dividend rates, indicating a trend towards higher shareholder returns [9][24]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the expected increase in free cash flow for municipal environmental companies due to a significant decline in capital expenditures (Capex), which is projected to enhance dividend rates over time [25][27]. - Specific companies are recommended based on their growth potential and dividend stability, including Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, Junxin Co., Yongxing Co., and Hongcheng Environment, each with unique strengths in their respective markets [27][28]. - The biodiesel industry is set to expand significantly due to EU policies that broaden the scope of renewable energy requirements across various transport sectors, indicating a robust growth trajectory for companies involved in biodiesel production [33][34].

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector experienced a decline of 4.59% on November 14, with Hai Xin Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - International Industrial (000159) closed at 6.85, up 2.24% with a trading volume of 237,400 shares and a transaction value of 163 million [1] - Zhongliang Technology (000930) closed at 6.12, down 0.65% with a trading volume of 153,900 shares and a transaction value of 94.66 million [1] - Pengpeng Environmental (300664) closed at 6.12, down 1.92% with a trading volume of 331,800 shares and a transaction value of 205 million [1] - Excellent New Energy (688196) closed at 61.71, down 4.01% with a trading volume of 25,600 shares and a transaction value of 158 million [1] - Fengbei Biological (603334) closed at 48.30, down 4.03% with a trading volume of 79,100 shares and a transaction value of 38.8 million [1] - Jiaao Environmental (603822) closed at 109.69, down 4.42% with a trading volume of 26,700 shares and a transaction value of 296 million [1] - Shangaohuan Energy (000803) closed at 7.94, down 6.59% with a trading volume of 865,200 shares and a transaction value of 687 million [1] - Hai Xin Energy (300072) closed at 5.56, down 10.03% with a trading volume of 2,447,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.407 billion [1] Capital Flow - The biodiesel sector saw a net outflow of 390 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 288 million [1] - The detailed capital flow for individual stocks shows varying trends, with International Industrial seeing a net inflow of 3.08 million from main funds, while Hai Xin Energy experienced a net outflow of 150 million [2]

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector is experiencing significant positive developments, with core stocks showing notable price increases due to favorable policies and market conditions [1][4] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will contribute approximately 65% to the aviation sector's net-zero carbon target by 2050 [1] - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for biodiesel utilization, aiming for 2 million tons by 2025 and 5 million tons by 2030, alongside mandatory blending standards [2] Industry Developments - The European SAF FOB price has risen over 58% since the beginning of the year, reaching $2840-$2860 per ton, while domestic prices have increased to $2450-$2650 per ton [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of biodiesel in renewable energy development [2] - The International Maritime Organization is promoting biodiesel as a key option for reducing emissions in the shipping sector [2] Technological Advancements - Third-generation biodiesel technologies have achieved conversion efficiencies exceeding 92%, significantly reducing pollutant emissions and ensuring compatibility with existing maritime and aviation equipment [3] - Leading domestic companies are extending their production capabilities into the SAF supply chain, enhancing product value [3] Market Activity - The demand for biodiesel is expanding into high-value applications, with increased trading activity in the sector as market expectations for growth rise [4] - Core stocks in the biodiesel sector are attracting significant investor interest, driven by policy and price catalysts [4] Company Spotlight: Shango Environmental - Shango Environmental (000803.SZ) is a leading player in the biodiesel raw material sector, focusing on the resource utilization of used cooking oil (UCO) [5] - The company has an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of UCO and is well-positioned to benefit from the explosive growth in global SAF demand [5] - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 40-45 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 214.28%-228.56% [5] Competitive Advantages - Shango has established a robust network for collecting used cooking oil, enhancing its raw material self-sufficiency [6] - The company is upgrading its production facilities to meet both domestic and international SAF production standards, supporting future market expansion [6] - Plans to increase biodiesel production capacity to 500,000 tons per year are in place, leveraging raw material advantages to extend the supply chain into SAF production [6]

Market Overview - Technology stocks experienced a collective pullback, with indices showing a slight V-shaped recovery [3] - The biodiesel sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Shanhigh Environmental and Jiaao Environmental hitting the daily limit [3] - Gene editing stocks surged, with companies such as Nanjing Xinbai and Jimin Health reaching their daily limits [3] - Oil service stocks also performed well, with companies like Zhun Oil and Shandong Molong hitting the daily limit [3] - The satellite internet sector saw a late-stage rally, with Shanghai Huguang and Shanghai Gangwan both experiencing sharp increases [3] Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience amidst the overall market decline, with major banks like Agricultural Bank of China leading the way [5] - Agricultural Bank of China saw a significant increase of 3.49%, reaching a market capitalization of over 3 trillion, solidifying its position as the second-largest bank globally [6] Satellite Internet - The satellite internet sector rebounded sharply in the late trading session, with notable gains from companies like Aerospace Zhizhuang and China Satellite [10] - The catalyst for this rally was the announcement of a new, cheaper Starlink home package by SpaceX, priced at $40 per month [10] Company-Specific Developments - Xingsen Technology experienced a rise of 6% after rumors of a partnership with Nvidia surfaced, although these claims were later disputed [12][13] - Daily Interaction saw a volatile trading session, initially declining but then surging over 10% due to speculation around a new product release related to DeepSeek [19]

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector experienced a 3.5% increase on November 12, with Shanggou Huanneng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Sector Performance - Shanggou Huanneng (000803) closed at 8.72, up 9.96% with a trading volume of 482,400 shares and a transaction value of 416 million [1] - Jiaao Environmental Protection (603822) closed at 114.00, up 8.79% with a trading volume of 41,500 shares and a transaction value of 463 million [1] - Zhuoyue New Energy (688196) closed at 64.20, up 5.59% with a trading volume of 50,900 shares and a transaction value of 326 million [1] - Pengyao Environmental Protection (300664) closed at 6.28, up 3.80% with a trading volume of 736,200 shares and a transaction value of 464 million [1] - Fengbei Biological (603334) closed at 52.22, up 2.57% with a trading volume of 112,900 shares and a transaction value of 589 million [1] - Hainxinnengke (300072) closed at 5.88, up 0.86% with a trading volume of 3,180,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.872 billion [1] - International Industry (000159) closed at 6.70, up 0.45% with a trading volume of 272,900 shares and a transaction value of 182 million [1] - COFCO Technology (000930) closed at 6.11, up 0.33% with a trading volume of 197,000 shares and a transaction value of 120 million [1] Capital Flow - The biodiesel sector saw a net inflow of 321 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 227 million [1] - Main funds for Shanggou Huanneng had a net inflow of 138 million, representing 33.05% of the total [2] - Fengbei Biological had a net inflow of 78.42 million from main funds, accounting for 13.32% [2] - Pengyao Environmental Protection had a net inflow of 72.13 million from main funds, representing 15.54% [2] - Zhuoyue New Energy had a net inflow of 31.32 million from main funds, accounting for 9.60% [2] - Jiaao Environmental Protection had a net inflow of 9.39 million from main funds, representing 2.03% [2] - Hainxinnengke had a minimal net inflow of 234,700 from main funds [2] - COFCO Technology experienced a net outflow of 18.51 million from main funds, representing -15.39% [2]