Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The dairy sector is experiencing a significant supply contraction, with the potential end of capacity reduction in sight. The milk price has been declining for four years, leading to an industry loss for 1.5 years, resulting in an approximate 8% reduction in dairy cow capacity as of August 2025. The upcoming third-quarter silage feed procurement season may accelerate the clearing of livestock due to increased funding needs [4][27] - The beef sector is at a turning point in a super cycle, with domestic beef cattle capacity being fully cleared. The prolonged loss cycle has driven a deep reduction in breeding cows, which is expected to lead to a decline in beef cattle inventory starting in 2024. The supply of beef is anticipated to enter a contraction phase in the second half of 2025 [5][50] Summary by Sections Dairy Sector - Supply contraction is nearing its end, with milk prices expected to rebound due to a tightening supply-demand balance. The reduction in capacity is expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 or the first half of 2026, supported by seasonal demand during the upcoming holidays and long-term improvements in consumption driven by child-rearing subsidies [4][27] - The financial performance of dairy companies varies, with some showing resilience against falling milk prices due to unique business advantages, while others face significant pressure [6] - The dairy industry is characterized by a longer production cycle compared to other livestock, leading to a more prolonged adjustment period in capacity [6][27] Beef Sector - The beef cattle market is experiencing a super cycle, with a significant reduction in domestic beef cattle capacity. The prolonged loss cycle has led to a decrease in breeding cows, which will impact beef supply in the coming years [5][50] - External factors affecting beef supply are diminishing, with a long-term global beef supply gap emerging due to various pressures on major production areas [5] - The demand for beef is expected to grow steadily, driven by rising income levels and health consciousness among consumers, with a notable reliance on imported beef to meet domestic demand [50][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in both the dairy and beef sectors. Specific companies to watch include China Shengmu, Guangming Meat Industry, and Fucheng Co., for beef, and Yuran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Modern Dairy for dairy [6][7]

秋色过半，丰收在望。放眼齐鲁大地，已是一番"十里西畴熟稻香，垂垂山果挂青黄"的景象。恰如庄稼 离不开雨露滋养，这幅丰收图景，同样离不开金融活水的精准灌溉。 近年来，建行山东省分行深耕乡村沃土，将金融服务融入乡村振兴脉络。截至8月末，全行涉农贷款余 额2221亿元，较年初新增186.5亿元。数据背后，是一座座拔地而起的智慧大棚、一条条融合发展的产 业链、一家家活力迸发的农业企业，更是越来越多农民鼓起来的钱袋子。 助力高标准农田建设，筑牢粮食安全"压舱石" 建设高标准农田，是筑牢国家粮食安全根基、促进农民增收、推动乡村振兴的关键举措。济宁市鱼台县 作为山东省重要粮食产区，"鱼台大米"年产量超7亿斤，在保障区域粮食供应、促进地方经济发展等方 面发挥着重要作用。 近年来，鱼台县全面落实"藏粮于地、藏粮于技"战略，大力推进高标准农田建设，重点实施灌溉排水、 田间道路、土地平整、农田防护及农机购置等工程，全力提升粮食综合产能。 在这一过程中，建行山东省分行积极发挥金融支撑作用。前期，建行济宁鱼台支行主动对接农业部门与 项目单位，深入了解项目需求，为鱼台县高标准农田改造提升项目量身定制金融服务方案。最终，成功 为项目投放高 ...

（原标题：猪价创年内新低、养殖利润跌破成本线 政策推动产能去化 畜牧养殖或迎布局窗口？） 生猪期、现、股全面下挫。 根据猪好多网，9月23日，生猪均价12.83元/公斤，仔猪价格24.08元/公斤，双双创下年内新低。 二级市场方面，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）早盘下跌1.66%，成交超4100万元，已超昨日全天水平。Wind 数据显示，近5个交易日，资金连续净流入该ETF累计超8100万元，呈逆势布局趋势。 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪2511合约12795元/吨，较前交易日变动-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.23%。 华鑫期货分析师认为，今年7月中旬，生猪期货价格一度出现快速反弹，主因是市场对生猪养殖行业的 压缩产能有所预期，相关政策和措施也陆续拟出台，但实际效果一般。 对于生猪行业近期表现，财通证券认为，近期集团场标猪供应量增加明显，供大于求。当前补栏仔猪对 应年后出栏，且环保政策监管趋严，仔猪补栏情绪持续回落。 随着猪价回落，生猪养殖利润全面跌破成本线。根据博亚和讯数据，9月19日当周，外购仔猪养殖利润 为-199.31元/头，盈利周环比下滑37.38元/头；自繁自养养殖利润为-24.44元/头，盈利周环比下 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to gradually rise due to positive fundamentals, with Dalian palm oil futures potentially following suit and starting an upward trend [1]. - Soybean oil is under pressure from seasonal harvest and Sino - US trade disputes, but the expected decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter may provide long - term support [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to oversupply, while domestic sugar is likely to continue its weak performance [3][4]. Grains and Oilseeds - US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic oilseed meal is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating rhythm due to sufficient supply [6]. Cotton - Medium - term domestic cotton prices may face pressure due to weak demand and high hedging pressure [9]. Corn - The corn market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with attention on new grain purchase rhythms and opening prices [10]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate within a bottom - range due to sufficient supply and uncertain demand [15]. Pigs - The pig market has a clear supply recovery pattern, with near - month contracts maintaining weak adjustments, and attention on 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8620 yuan/ton, palm oil spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.32% to 9270 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.29% to 10210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The three - oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 4.35% to 288 yuan/ton, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.98% to 206 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.00% to 505 yuan/ton [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of SR2601 decreased by 0.16% to 5452 yuan/ton, and the price of SR2605 decreased by 0.26% to 5432 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.51% to 5800 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.43% to 5820 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year to 1116.21 million tons, and national sugar sales increased by 12.87% year - on - year to 1000 million tons [3]. Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3980 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 10.53% to 252 yuan/ton, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 14.81% to 155 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal 2601 spread increased by 2.85% to 506 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of CF2605 decreased by 0.66% to 13812 yuan/ton, and the price of CF2601 decreased by 0.80% to 13610 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.34% to 15146 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.39% to 15224 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Warehouse inventory decreased by 20.6% month - on - month to 117.59 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 3.4% month - on - month to 86.21 million tons [9]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of C2511 decreased by 0.97% to 2147 yuan/ton, and the price of CS2511 decreased by 1.30% to 2431 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.88% to 2300 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn starch in Changchun remained unchanged at 2560 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spreads**: The C11 - 3 spread decreased by 200.00% to - 1 yuan/ton, and the CS11 - 3 spread decreased by 45.00% to - 29 yuan/ton [10]. Eggs - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the price of the JD11 contract decreased by 1.19% to 3075 yuan/500KG, and the price of the JD10 contract decreased by 1.42% to 2982 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95% to 2.85, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% to 3.20 yuan/feather [14]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of LH2511 decreased by 0.23% to 12795 yuan/ton, and the price of LH2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13345 yuan/ton [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 12700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The sample slaughterhouse daily volume decreased by 0.24% to 153248, and the self - breeding profit per week decreased by 245.13% to - 24 yuan/head [17].

Group 1 - The core business of the company includes providing foundation and site leveling engineering as a subcontractor in Hong Kong, as well as engaging in the trade of alcoholic beverages in mainland China [1] - The company is actively seeking industry opportunities with significant growth potential, including modern aquaculture operations and related value-added products [1] - The company is considering opportunities in livestock farming and animal husbandry, which may involve modern farm operations and related agricultural product production [1] Group 2 - The company is evaluating a potential acquisition of a licensed virtual asset trading platform, which may include establishing and operating regulated cryptocurrency exchange services and related fintech solutions [1] - The board believes that these strategic initiatives can leverage the company's resources and expertise while exploring new market opportunities, thereby enhancing competitiveness and creating sustainable value for shareholders [1]

消息面上，生猪产能调控超预期，9月16日生猪产能调控企业座谈会召开。此前包括牧原股份、新希 望、大北农等大型猪企，均在今年8月底至9月初的投资者交流活动中强调会响应国家的母猪产能调控政 策。 数据显示，截至2025年8月29日，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)前十大权重股分别为牧原股份(002714)、温 氏股份(300498)、海大集团(002311)、新希望(000876)、梅花生物(600873)、大北农(002385)、圣农发展 (002299)、生物股份(600201)、天康生物(002100)、唐人神(002567)，前十大权重股合计占比65.57%。 国金证券指出，政策端持续发力，9月16日生猪养殖行业仍有座谈会推动产能去化落地，年前政策端主 动去产能或持续推进，利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间， 近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏 损下行业产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利 润，且非洲猪瘟之后行业的快速扩张中，仍有大量企业是低质量扩充产能，行业成本方差依旧巨 ...

养殖ETF紧密跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，中证畜牧养殖指数选取涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽药物以及畜禽养殖等 业务的上市公司证券作为样本，以反映畜牧养殖相关上市公司的整体表现。从估值层面来看，养殖ETF 跟踪的中证畜牧养殖指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅14.46倍，处于近3年18.68%的分位，即估值低于近3 年81.32%以上的时间，处于历史低位。当前行业景气度已在底部，有足够的安全边际，反内卷政策预 期下，供给端预计会有收缩，企业盈利中枢与盈利稳定性均有望明显抬升，优质猪企将迎来估值重估， 建议积极关注养殖ETF(516760.SH)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 从资金净流入方面来看，养殖ETF近6天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2696.09万元净流入，合 计"吸金"4563.25万元，日均净流入达760.54万元。 据涌益咨询，截至2025年9月21日，全国生猪均价12.71 元/公斤，周环比-0.50 元/公斤，同比-5.73 元/公 斤。截至2025年9月18日，涌益样本生猪出栏均重128.45 公斤/头，周环比+0.13 公斤/头，同比+2.49 公 斤/头，1 ...

Market Overview - On September 19, A-shares saw a decline across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.16% [1] - The CSI A50 index increased by 0.33%, outperforming other indices [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,238 billion RMB, a significant decrease of over 811.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Index Performance - The CSI A50 index has risen by 12.04% year-to-date, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 13.97% [2] - The ChiNext Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 44.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 25.51% [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.37% and has a year-to-date increase of 40.87% [2] Sector Performance - The coal sector (1.97%), non-ferrous metals (1.19%), and building materials (1.05%) were the top-performing sectors [4] - Conversely, the automotive sector (-1.94%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (-1.41%), and computer sector (-1.26%) experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Flow - The ETF market continued to see a net inflow, totaling 17.694 billion RMB this week [5] - Cross-border ETFs and stock ETFs were the main contributors to inflows, with net inflows of 17.655 billion RMB and 7.588 billion RMB, respectively [5] - Stock (broad-based) ETFs saw a significant net outflow of 16.252 billion RMB, indicating a declining preference for broad-based ETF investments [6] Investment Trends - The livestock ETF (159867) saw a net subscription of 10.5 million units, marking nine consecutive days of net inflow [11] - The chemical ETF (159870) recorded a net subscription of 1.75 billion units, driven by the strengthening of solid-state battery concepts [12] - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing increased interest, particularly in gold stocks, as gold prices have recently surpassed 3,660 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Zhanjiang is experiencing a significant agricultural harvest, with a total agricultural output value of 52.946 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [6][7]. Group 1: Agricultural Production - The city has a strong agricultural foundation, being the largest grain-producing city in Guangdong, with a grain planting area of 4.2644 million mu and a total output of 1.5958 million tons, accounting for 12.15% of the province's total output [20][21]. - The tropical crop industry is particularly competitive, with a fruit planting area of 1.7844 million mu and a total output of 3.4556 million tons, where pineapple production accounts for nearly 90% of the province's total [22]. - The vegetable planting area is 2.5549 million mu, with a total output of 4.8537 million tons, ranking first in the province [23]. Group 2: Livestock and Aquaculture - The livestock industry has a total output value of 17.079 billion yuan, with cattle and sheep output ranking first in the province [26]. - Zhanjiang is recognized as the "Capital of Chinese Prawns," leading the nation in seven indicators related to shrimp seedling production, breeding area, and processing scale [27]. Group 3: Value Addition and Branding - The city has established 26 modern agricultural industrial parks, with 4 at the national level and 22 at the provincial level, leading the province in quantity [42]. - The agricultural product processing industry is projected to reach an output value of 66.722 billion yuan in 2024, forming four industrial clusters with over 10 billion yuan in value [43]. - The "Zhanpin" brand has recognized 176 products, with online retail sales of agricultural products reaching 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.8% [49][50]. Group 4: Rural Development and Innovation - The city has accelerated rural operations, establishing 41 strong town and rich village companies, and 222 benchmark family farms, ranking second in the province [60][61]. - The total income of rural collective economies is projected to reach 1.167 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [62]. - Zhanjiang is transforming traditional agriculture into modern agriculture, with multiple billion-yuan agricultural industrial clusters being cultivated [68].

Group 1 - The celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region is marked by various activities and symbols reflecting the region's cultural and natural beauty [2] - The region showcases a blend of pastoral landscapes and urban development, with thriving local economies and entrepreneurial spirit among the youth [2] - The border ports, such as the Horgos Road Port, play a crucial role in facilitating trade and tourism, with a designed annual cargo throughput capacity of 3 million tons and 5 million person entries and exits [5][6] Group 2 - The core area for goji berry cultivation in Xinjiang has expanded to 4,600 acres, significantly increasing the local economic output and providing seasonal employment opportunities [8] - E-commerce initiatives, particularly through live streaming, are gaining traction, with projected sales of 170 million yuan in 2024, driven by a young demographic [10][11] - The agricultural sector is experiencing advancements, with solar pest control technologies being utilized to enhance cotton production [15] Group 3 - Cultural initiatives, such as the establishment of the "Silk Road" Xinjiang-Tacheng Literature Museum, aim to promote local literature and arts, featuring renowned authors and creative spaces [20]