交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.3万吨，环比有所减少2.35%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7万吨，环比减少4.10%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为33万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 53200吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为2145元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开 工率为64.02%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为6.73万 吨，处于高位，进口利润为626元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为714.29元/ 吨，再生铝开工率为59.3%，环比增加2.24%,处于高位。 成本端来看,新疆地区样本通氧 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 合盛硅业公告，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-33亿元到-28亿元，与上年同期相 比，将出现亏损。2025年，公司所处行业整体经历阶段性供需结构调整，产品价格面临下行压力。受光 伏产业链供需关系变化影响，工业硅市场需求同比显著收缩，销售价格随之下行。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a bearish fundamental outlook, with supply remaining at a high level despite a reduction in production schedules, demand showing a slight recovery, and cost support increasing. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9045 [6]. - The polysilicon market has a mixed outlook. Supply production schedules continue to decrease, demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support stabilizes. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48165 - 50505 [9]. - The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,284 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 210,300 tons, a 1.31% decrease; and main port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. 2. Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for January is 107,800 tons [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.86 GW, a 0.27% increase. The inventory was 267,800 tons, an 8.07% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend in some periods, with battery cells in a loss - making state and components in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,850 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [9]. 3. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and different futures contracts are provided, along with their price changes and price differences [15]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory are presented, including their changes [15]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Information on weekly sample enterprise production, production in different regions, and operating rates is given [15]. 4. Polysilicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and polysilicon materials are provided, along with their price changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly silicon wafer inventory, photovoltaic cell inventory, and polysilicon total inventory are presented, including their changes [17]. - **Production**: Information on weekly silicon wafer production, photovoltaic cell production, and polysilicon production is given [17]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Cost Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory trends of industrial silicon, the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, and the supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [19][22][25][29][37][41][44]. - **Downstream Market Trends**: It also includes the price and production trends of organic silicon DMC, the price trends of organic silicon downstream products, the import - export and inventory trends of organic silicon, the price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy, and the fundamental, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends of polysilicon [47][49][52][56][59][64][67][70][76][79][82][85][87].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On January 29, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,925 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.36%, and open interest increasing by 970 lots to 237,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium to a discount of 75 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 49,335 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 4.22%, and open interest increasing by 1,330 lots to 42,745 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from Baichuan dropped to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 3,165 yuan/ton. [2] - In Sichuan, all furnaces have stopped operating. In Yunnan, low - load operation is maintained due to long - term contracts, and production cuts are also expected in the future. Large factories in Xinjiang plan to cut production by 50% by the end of the month. With the expected reduction in supply, the futures market is gradually recovering, and the supply of high - and low - grade products is diverging. The scale of production cuts by silicon material manufacturers continues to expand. The rush to export before the export tax - rebate window will advance demand, and the high inventory in the industry will dilute the intensity of restocking. In terms of rhythm, spot quotes are gradually losing support, with the near - term futures having support and the far - term futures under pressure. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,760 yuan/ton on January 28 to 8,925 yuan/ton on January 29, a rise of 165 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - term contract increased from 8,670 yuan/ton to 8,835 yuan/ton, a rise of 165 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different grades and regions remained stable. The lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium of 90 yuan/ton to a discount of 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton. [2][4] - **Polysilicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 50,805 yuan/ton on January 28 to 49,335 yuan/ton on January 29, a drop of 1,470 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - term contract decreased from 50,220 yuan/ton to 48,445 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,775 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable. The lowest deliverable product price was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened from 1,695 yuan/ton to 3,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,470 yuan/ton. [2][4] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton. Among the organic silicon products, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 14,500 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton. [4] - **Inventory**: For industrial silicon, the daily warehouse receipts increased by 384 to 13,655, the weekly inventory at GFE increased by 8,440 to 64,855 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,000 to 453,950 tons. For polysilicon, the daily warehouse receipts increased by 770 to 8,090, the weekly inventory at GFE increased by 69,000 tons to 205,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 9,000 tons to 330,000 tons. [4] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [6][9][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [15][17][18] 3.3 Inventory - The charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, and the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and DMC. [20][21][24] 3.4 Cost - Profit - The charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloys. [25][27][29]

2026 年 01 月 29 日 工业硅：上游减产，盘面亦有支撑 多晶硅：会议情绪偏好 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,760 | -100 | -20 | -75 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 243,714 | 25,922 | -36,861 | -24,721 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 235,683 | -6,942 | 11,996 | 19,129 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 50,805 | -1,095 | 1,105 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 8,361 | -2,863 | -7,123 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 41,415 | -24 | -2,5 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-26，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8865元/吨，最后收于8915元/吨，较前一日 结算变化（85）元/吨，变化（0.96）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓252307手，2026-01-25仓单总数 为13115手，较前一日变化144手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计1月22日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.6万吨，较上周增加0.18%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。近日国家取消光伏增值税出口退税政 策，短期多晶硅需求有上涨预期，多晶硅强出口有望提振工业硅需求端，短期的需求利好提振价格上 行。铝硅合金企业开工率小幅下降，有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon has decreased slightly, but due to weak downstream demand, market activity is limited. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon still has room to decline. Suggest considering shorting opportunities for si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Although some production enterprises have reduced supply, inventory consumption is limited, and the effect of supply - demand adjustment has not yet appeared. Future price trends still depend on the improvement of supply - demand balance and industry policy orientation. Suggest considering long opportunities for PS2605, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - A rumored meeting minutes show that on January 6, the State Administration for Market Regulation约谈ed relevant units in the photovoltaic industry, mainly involving issues such as monopoly risks and rectification requirements. It is speculated that the limit - down of the polysilicon futures was affected by this [8]. - On December 26, 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation carried out compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui, pointing out the "involution - style" competition problems in the industry [8]. - On December 24, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the addition of several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses [8]. - On December 23, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients in polysilicon futures contracts [8]. 3.1.2 Industrial Silicon Weekly View - **Market Review**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the industrial silicon spot price remained stable, with the benchmark spot price at 8,802 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, and the latest transaction price was 8,820 yuan/ton, and the current position was about 231,400 lots [11]. - **Supply**: In the southwest region, only a few manufacturers are operating, with low production. In Xinjiang, production is stable; in Inner Mongolia, some manufacturers have reduced production; in Shaanxi, some manufacturers have resumed production [11]. - **Demand**: In January, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and the industry's operating rate decreased. The silicone industry was affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the aluminum rod output decreased, with general demand for industrial silicon [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The production cost of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, mainly due to the decline in silicon coal prices. Profits increased slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level [11]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will still decline. Suggest shorting si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy [11]. 3.1.3 Polysilicon Weekly View - **Market Review**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the polysilicon spot price fluctuated downward, with the benchmark spot price at 50,505 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.14%, and the current position was about 46,200 lots [13]. - **Supply**: In January 2026, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and most enterprises were operating at reduced loads. It is expected that the domestic polysilicon output in January will be about 95,000 tons [13]. - **Demand**: Although the downstream demand schedule has increased compared with the initial forecast of the month, it is still declining month - on - month. The demand in the energy storage field is expected to be optimistic, but the power battery is in the off - season, and the procurement demand is restricted [13]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: This week, the cost increased, and the profit decreased significantly. The inventory showed a "high - level fluctuation" characteristic, and the overall inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Future price trends depend on supply - demand balance and policies. Suggest going long on PS2605 or implementing an arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc. The products are mainly used in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries, and are further applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and new energy [19]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon spot prices (including different grades and regions) and futures contract prices (including continuous contracts and active contracts) [23][33][41] 3.4 Inventory - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon inventory, including industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [52][56] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon [63] - **Main Production Area Electricity Prices**: Charts of electricity prices in main industrial silicon production areas such as Yunnan Nujiang, Xinjiang, and Sichuan Liangshan are provided [68][70] - **Silica Stone Prices**: Charts of silica stone prices in regions such as Guangxi, Henan, and Shaanxi are provided [77][81] - **Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal**: Charts of prices of petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions are provided [84][90] 3.6 Supply - **Output**: Charts of industrial silicon weekly and monthly output are provided [96] - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: Charts of industrial silicon operating rate and monthly production capacity are provided, and information on new production capacity projects in various regions in 2025 - 2026 is listed, with a total new production capacity of 1.98 million tons [101][104] 3.7 Demand - **Consumption Overview**: Charts of industrial silicon consumption breakdown and structure are provided, and consumption data of different industries from 2024 - 2025 are listed [107][110] - **Polysilicon**: Charts of polysilicon monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit are provided [113][118] - **Silicone**: Charts of silicone market price, intermediate (DMC) monthly output, production cost, and production gross profit in the East China region are provided [123][129] - **Aluminum Rod**: Charts of aluminum rod weekly and monthly output, price, 6063 spot inventory, and original aluminum - based alloy production, operating rate are provided [134][138][140] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: Charts of recycled aluminum alloy production, production capacity, operating rate, and inventory are provided [149][151] - **Solar/PV**: Charts of solar cell cumulative output and battery slice price are provided [156] 3.8 Import and Export - The report provides charts of industrial silicon and polysilicon import and export volumes [166][170]

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅延续震荡；多晶硅成交清 淡，观望为主 工业硅&多晶硅周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/01/24 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 周度要点小结 ◆ 需求： 百川盈孚口径下多晶硅周度产量为2.04万吨，环比延续下行。 百川盈孚口径DMC产量4.29万吨，环比-0.07万吨。 1-12月，铝合金累计产量1929.70万吨，累计同比+315.60万吨或+19.55%。 1-12月，我国工业硅累计净出口70.84万吨，累计同比+1.35万吨或+1.94%。 ◆ 库存：截至2026/1/23，百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存51.78万吨，环比+0.74万吨。其中，工厂库存26.20万吨，环比-0.10万吨；市场库存 19.10万吨，环比持平；已注册仓单库存6.49万吨，环比+0.84万吨。 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 截至2026/1/ ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-22，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8770元/吨，最后收于8825元/吨，较前一日 结算变化（90）元/吨，变化（1.03）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓228488手，2026-01-21仓单总数 为11955手，较前一日变化384手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计1月15日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.5万吨，较上周增加0.54%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。本周多晶硅维持减产，对工业硅需求 支撑有限，但短期光伏抢出口显现易拉动工业硅需求。有机硅维持错峰减排政策，持续自律减产，对工 业硅需求支撑同样乏力。铝合金下游 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 点评 21 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8780/吨，日内涨幅 0.52%，持仓 减仓 865 手至 22.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 70 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 49700 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.59%，持 仓增仓 288 手至 43920 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格跌至 54500 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格 54500 元/吨，现货升水扩至 4800 元/吨。西南 除自备电厂和一体化供应以外全面停炉，新疆检修结束出现复产，中和 供给端减量。下游减产导致工业硅整体上行受挫。多晶硅供需失衡压力 叠加反垄断监管施压，市场交易逻辑由消息炒作转会基本面视角，硅料 强势挺价底气难以延续。近期出口退税取消引发海外订单激增、大幅缓 解组件排产压力，因硅片环节原料积压，增量未能传导至硅料环节，晶 硅端减产规模将进一步扩大。预计短期盘面大涨无力、平稳运行，现货 报价或逐步失去支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...