工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 点评 6 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 9065 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.17%，持仓 增仓 4006 手至 23.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9654 元/吨，较上一交易 日上调 14 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格持稳在 8900 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 200 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 53395 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.09%，持仓减仓 2818 手至 12.2 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格 52000 元 /吨，最低交割品硅料价格在 52500 元/吨，现货升水收至 500 元/吨。工业 硅重心继续跟随成本回升，但盘面针对后期减产已经充分计价，工业硅供 需改善有余但去库不足，存在见顶压力。西南开启减产季，硅片排产受配 额限制，多晶硅由供需双增转向供需减量博弈格局，有望迎来阶段去库节 奏。重点关注仓单注销冲击下，能否形成实际性去库结果。近期行业公开 产能收储平台 17 家企业完成签字，现货限价坚挺支撑底部，后续平台正式 成立和控产的动态频发，将给予盘面持续向上驱动。 请务必阅读正文之后的免 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, China's economy maintains a long - term stable and positive trend. The sentiment in the domestic industrial products market is boosted by factors such as the Sino - US economic and trade talks reaching a phased consensus, the continued recovery of industrial enterprise profit growth, and the emphasis on high - quality development and green energy transformation [3][49]. - On the supply side, the supply shows a slight growth trend with Xinjiang's high - level production, a small decline in production in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - water period, and the inability of Gansu and Inner Mongolia to maintain production growth. Social inventory is rising at a high level [3][21][49]. - On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry is in a new balance cycle with both supply and demand contracting. Traditional industries like organic silicon and aluminum alloy maintain a certain degree of resilience, which is conducive to stabilizing the basic consumption of industrial silicon. In November, the demand side is expected to continue structural adjustments [3][39][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 October Industrial Silicon Market Review 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon Futures Price - In October 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a stable and rising trend. The main 2512 contract traded between 8800 - 9310 yuan/ton, with the price center slightly higher than the previous month. The price at the end of the month was 9100 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.3% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The overall spot market was stable. The average production cost in October was 9095.95 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. The overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 40.2%. The prices of mainstream grades were generally stable, with some expected to rise slightly in November [9][10][12]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes high - quality development, including strengthening the top - level design of artificial intelligence, building a new energy system, and promoting green energy transformation. It also aims to develop emerging pillar industries and future industries, which will bring new economic growth points [14][18][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Production - In October, Xinjiang's silicon enterprise operating rate rose above 80%, while the production in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased during the flat - water period. Gansu and Inner Mongolia failed to maintain growth. The national industrial silicon production in October was 45.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the cumulative production from January to October was 346.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.2% [21]. 3.3.2 Exports - From January to September, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 56.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In September, the export volume was 7.02 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. It is expected that the export volume in November will remain between 7 - 8 tons [26]. 3.3.3 Inventory - By the end of October, the social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 55.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 7.32% month - on - month. It is expected that the social inventory will decline at a high level in November [30]. 3.3.4 Downstream Demand - Polysilicon production increased in October, but the market is concerned about the follow - up of the new platform. Silicon wafer production is expected to decline due to reduced overseas demand. The battery and component markets are also facing challenges, but the component market demand is gradually improving. Organic silicon has limited price - support space, and the fundamentals have not significantly improved. The aluminum alloy market is in the peak season, with stable production and processing fees, and the production is expected to continue to increase in November [34][37][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the domestic industrial products market sentiment is boosted. The supply side shows a slight growth, and the demand side will continue structural adjustments. The photovoltaic industry may enter a new balance cycle, and traditional industries will maintain a certain degree of resilience [3][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. For industrial silicon, there is an increase in cost support, supply-side production scheduling is rising, and demand recovery remains at a low level. For polysilicon, supply-side production scheduling is decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline [6][8]. - Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8785 - 8985, and polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52890 - 54540 [6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.44% decrease from the previous week, and the demand was 87,000 tons, also showing a decline. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level, with silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components in a profitable state. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of -520 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 68.56%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 211 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: On November 4th, the spot price of non-oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 415 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week. Sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a 0.24% increase from the previous week. The inventory of major ports was 124,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 01 contract was upward, and the futures price closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply-side production scheduling is increasing, approaching the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8785 - 8985 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. The production of battery cells in October was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 3.85GW, a 36.04% decrease from the previous week. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for November is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease from the previous month. The production of components in October was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month. The expected production of components in November is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry is 38,760 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 4th, the price of N-type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1515 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was lower than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 01 contract was upward, and the futures price closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply-side production scheduling is continuously decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support is strengthening. Polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52890 - 54540 [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract of East China non-oxygenated 553 silicon at 8885 yuan/ton, a 2.79% decrease from the previous day [15]. - The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises in Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Sichuan showed different trends [6][15]. - The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends, with the production of sample enterprises decreasing by 2.36% compared to the previous week [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - The prices of most polysilicon contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 4.19% decrease from the previous day [17]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained relatively stable, with some showing slight fluctuations [17]. - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [17]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends - The basis of the SI main contract and the price difference between East China 421 and 553 showed different trends over time [20]. 5. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The price and trading volume of the PS main contract, as well as the basis of the main contract, showed different trends in the short term [23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of SMM sample enterprises, showed different trends over time [25]. 7. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of SMM sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production of industrial silicon by specification showed different trends over time [28][29]. - The operating rates of SMM sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends [30]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang showed different trends over time [35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends, with factors such as production, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [37][40]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC**: The daily capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC showed different trends over time. The price of DMC also showed different trends in different years [43]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed different trends over time [45]. - **Import - Export and Inventory**: The monthly import and export volumes and inventory of DMC showed different trends over time [49]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the import cost and profit of ADC12, and the import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [52]. - **Inventory and Production**: The monthly production of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots showed different trends over time [55]. - **Demand**: The monthly production of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels showed different trends over time [56]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The cost, price, inventory, production, and operating rate of polysilicon showed different trends over time [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends, with factors such as supply, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [65]. - **Silicon Wafer Trends**: The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers showed different trends over time [68]. - **Battery Cell Trends**: The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [71]. - **Photovoltaic Component Trends**: The price, inventory, production, and export of photovoltaic components showed different trends over time [74]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: The prices of photovoltaic coatings, the import - export of photovoltaic films, the production of photovoltaic glass, the prices of high - purity quartz sand, and the import - export of solder strips showed different trends over time [77]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends**: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components showed different trends over time [79]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: No specific content was provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak gradually, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease. The industry is in a wide - range shock stage with no significant driver currently [4]. - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs [4][5]. - Negative factors involve the weakening of demand due to downstream industrial integration or production - cut measures in the polysilicon industry [5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of the November warehouse receipt cancellation. High volatility and risks are present, and investors are advised to be cautious [7][8]. - Positive factors include potential industry capacity integration and clearance plans [9]. - Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the integration and clearance plans fail to materialize [9]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8885 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 255 yuan (- 2.79%) and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan (- 0.78%) [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 46161 lots, with a daily decrease of 1092 lots (- 2.31%) and a weekly decrease of 2024 lots (- 4.20%) [10]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases [17]. - The prices of mid - stream industrial silicon powder and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 also have different trends [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipt quantity is 45823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots (- 0.12%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses have different changes [29]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53715 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 2350 yuan (- 4.19%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 1.18%) [30]. - The trading volume and open interest of the main contract and weighted index contract have different changes, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 9590 lots, with a weekly increase of 440 lots (4.81%) [30]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different changes, with some remaining stable and some showing small increases or decreases [42][44]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2340 yuan (- 57.85%) and a weekly increase of 10 yuan (0.59%) [53]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of polysilicon remains unchanged at 9590 lots [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches and southwest production decreases, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The current industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although production is decreasing, downstream demand may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the year [1][3][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9100 yuan/ton and closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 228,268 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 46,161, a decrease of 1092 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton. The price in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable. The weekly output of Yunnan sample silicon enterprises was 6265 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 54%, a significant decrease from the previous week. As the dry season in Yunnan approaches, some local silicon furnaces have stopped production, and the operating rate is in a continuous downward trend. In November, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term order delivery needs will be in production, and the number of remaining operating furnaces may be less than 20 [1]. Consumption Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 11000 - 11300 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale price adjustment of the leading manufacturer, downstream inventory replenishment increased, and market confidence was boosted. However, the problem of oversupply was still prominent, and the market was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and production in the southwest is decreasing, so the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 56320 yuan/ton and closed at 56065 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 143,844 lots, and the trading volume was 215,288 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.50 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of 1.16%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.49%). The weekly output of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32% [5]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest will decrease significantly, and the output is expected to decline [7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.31 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large inventory pressure. The production has started to decrease recently, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month. The downstream production plan may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Participants need to pay attention to risk management and follow up on policy implementation and spot price transmission. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [8].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251103：区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/11/3 指标 | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 9,100.00 | -0.60% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 200.00 | 55.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 56,410.00 | 2.66% | | 基差 元/吨 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | -5,410.00 9,300.00 | -1,460.00 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the short - term price trend of industrial silicon futures lies in the game between the macro "anti - involution" expectation and the weak fundamentals. The industry has an expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, but there are practical resistances in the process of capacity optimization. The cost of industrial silicon is mainly 30% electricity, so coal price fluctuations affect it. In November, the industry's operating rate is expected to rise, and the output in October may reach the annual high. The downstream demand shows different pulling effects, with polysilicon production scheduled to decline in November, organic silicon monomer plants having maintenance plans, and the aluminum alloy operating rate remaining stable. The market pricing logic is further inclined to polysilicon futures. [1] - In the short term, the price of industrial silicon futures will closely follow the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile pattern. With the arrival of the dry season, the market logic will gradually revolve around power costs, and then the downward space of industrial silicon will be limited. [2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction is the game between the macro "anti - involution" expectation and the weak fundamentals. There are resistances in the capacity optimization process due to the industry structure. The cost of industrial silicon is affected by coal prices. The supply is expected to increase in November, and the output in October may reach the annual high. The downstream demand varies, and the market pricing logic is shifting towards polysilicon futures. [1] - Near - end trading logic (before the end of the year): The total production schedule of industrial silicon in October continues to increase, and the output on the supply side will reach the annual high. The policies of the downstream polysilicon industry will have an impact on the price of industrial silicon. [3] - Far - end trading logic (after the end of the year): The electricity price during the dry season will increase the production cost, and the price center of gravity will gradually move up. With the arrival of the off - season, the demand for industrial silicon is likely to weaken. [4] 1.2 Trading - based Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: Wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are: oscillation range 8400 - 9400; low - level range 7800 - 8300; high - level range 9500 - 10000. [5] - **Single - side strategy**: Short SI2601 at the high - level range; long SI2605 at the low - level range. [7] - **Month - spread strategy**: Reverse spread of SI2601 - SI2605. [7] - **Basis strategy**: Wait and see. [7] - **Option strategy**: Sell SI2601 - C - 9500 when the volatility is high; buy SI2601 - P - 8300 when the volatility is low. [7] 1.3 Industry Operation Suggestions - The support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.2% and a historical percentile of 68.0% in 3 years. [8] - For silicon industry enterprises, different hedging strategies are proposed according to different scenarios such as sales, procurement, and inventory management, with corresponding hedging tools, ratios, and suggested entry intervals. [8] Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerned Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On October 26, the 100,000 - ton/year hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental protection project of Yongchang Silicon Industry successfully passed the acceptance of reaching the production standard. [9] 2.2 Next Week's Concerned Events No relevant information provided. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures trends**: The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract this week was 9095 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%. The trading volume was 372,319 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 13.12%. The open interest was 408,543 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 16,059 lots. The month - spread of SI2601 - SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 47,253 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1074 lots. The price may weaken further, and key support levels need to be focused on. The market is in a state of equilibrium, and the wide - range oscillation range of 8600 - 9300 yuan/ton needs attention. [12][14] - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been decreasing, while the implied volatility of at - the - money options has been rising significantly. The option open - interest PCR has been increasing, indicating a growing bearish sentiment in the market. [16][17] - **Capital movement**: The net short positions of key industrial silicon seats have increased recently, indicating signs of institutional short - selling. [19] - **Month - spread structure**: The current industrial silicon futures contracts show a stable contango structure. [21] - **Basis structure**: The basis of the industrial silicon main contract is at the average level, and there is a relatively high probability of it strengthening further. [25] 2.2 Downstream Futures and Capital Trends - Polysilicon: The closing price of the polysilicon weighted index contract this week was 52,045 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The trading volume was 289,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 29.56%. The open interest was 231,600 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 lots. The month - spread of PS2601 - PS2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 9420 lots, a week - on - week increase of 810 lots. The net long positions are showing a slight increase. [27] - Aluminum alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy weighted index contract this week was 20,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 8407 lots, and the open interest was 26,300 lots. The month - spread of AD2512 - AD2601 was in a contango structure, and the number of warehouse receipts was 47,899 lots. The net long positions are increasing. [27] 2.3 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - Provides price data for various products in the industrial silicon industry chain, including different grades of industrial silicon, industrial silicon powder, trichlorosilane, polysilicon, organic silicon DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12, along with their daily and weekly changes. [30][31] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry is currently in a continuous repair channel. The polysilicon industry's profit is stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, and the profit level of the organic silicon industry is decreasing. [32] Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - Provides weekly production and operating rate data from different sources such as Baichuan, Steel Union, and SMM. The production of industrial silicon shows different trends, and the operating rates also vary. [36][38] - There are also inventory data for different regions and types of industrial silicon, including Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and social inventories at ports. [52][54][55] 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon from SMM and Baichuan shows a decreasing trend, and the operating rate has a slight change. The weekly inventory of polysilicon shows different changes in different parts such as total inventory, production enterprise inventory, silicon wafer enterprise inventory, and warehouse - receipt inventory. [56][58] 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys are increasing, and the inventory shows different changes. There are also seasonal data on production, operating rates, and PMI of aluminum alloys. [61][62] 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC is increasing slightly, and there are also data on monthly net exports and inventory of organic silicon products. [65][66] 5.5 Terminal - Provides data on China's real - estate sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new - installed capacity, reflecting the terminal demand situation. [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon rose 2.02% and polysilicon rose 7.85%. The industrial silicon futures market showed an upward trend due to increased production cuts in the dry season, while the rise in polysilicon was driven by market sentiment from an interview report about GCL's photovoltaic consortium. [4] - For industrial silicon, in the supply side, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, increasing production costs and leading to some enterprises suspending production. In Xinjiang, production is increasing. In the demand side, the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy is relatively stable, but the demand from polysilicon is uncertain. Cost provides support for prices, while high inventory restricts upward price movement. [4] - For polysilicon, the supply will remain high in the short - term, but production costs will increase as the dry season approaches in the southwest. The demand is weak due to over - capacity in the battery cell segment and slow growth in domestic new photovoltaic installations. [4] - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 8800 - 9400 with a stop - loss range of 8600 - 9500, and the main contract of polysilicon oscillates in the range of 53000 - 57000 with a stop - loss range of 51000 - 58000. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon rose 2.02% and polysilicon rose 7.85% this week. The increase in industrial silicon was due to dry - season production cuts, and the increase in polysilicon was driven by market sentiment. [4] - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply will decrease in the dry season, demand from polysilicon is uncertain, and cost supports prices while high inventory restricts price increases. For polysilicon, supply will remain high in the short - term, costs will rise, and demand is weak. [4] - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the 8800 - 9400 range with a stop - loss of 8600 - 9500, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the 53000 - 57000 range with a stop - loss of 51000 - 58000. [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price increased, and the basis decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the spot price was 9450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 295 yuan/ton. The production and capacity utilization rate decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 8.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.44%. [11][13][20] - **Polysilicon**: Both the spot and futures prices increased, and the basis weakened. As of October 30, 2025, the spot price was 52.3 yuan/kg, up 20 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2650 yuan/gram. [15][17] 3. Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Raw Materials and Costs**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon remained flat. As the dry season approaches, electricity prices in the southwest increased, raising costs, while electricity prices in the northwest remained stable at 0.35 yuan/kWh. [22][24] - **Industrial Silicon Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 47410 lots, a decrease of 1328 lots from the previous period. [29] - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the production and operating rate of organic silicon decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the weekly production was 4.43 tons, a decrease of 3.7%, and the operating rate was 68.56%, a decrease of 2.13%. The cost, spot price, and profit remained stable, and future production is expected to remain flat. [31][36][38] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory decreased. As of October 30, 2025, the price was 21100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 7.35 tons, a decrease of 0.18 tons from last week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to stabilize. [44][50] - **Silicon Wafers and Battery Cells**: The price of silicon wafers increased, and the price of battery cells remained flat. As of October 30, 2025, the price of silicon wafers was 1.53 yuan/piece, up 0.05 yuan/piece from last week, and the price of battery cells was 0.30 yuan/watt, unchanged from last week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be positive. [52][54] - **Polysilicon Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: This week, affected by electricity prices, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory increased. As of October 30, 2025, the profit was 9130 yuan/ton, the average cost was 43630 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 28.26 tons. [59][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, industrial silicon prices are expected to decline with a small range. Southwest regions will see production cuts while northwest regions increase production. Demand from polysilicon is uncertain, while demand from silicone and aluminum alloy is relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts upward price movement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the position of the main contract was 227,764 lots, up 7,102 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 57,526 lots, down 3,468 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 47,410 lots, up 72 lots; the closing price of the December contract was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between November - December contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 295 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) were 410 yuan/ton, 2,110 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; monthly imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; monthly exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly production of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly production of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation capacity exceeded thermal power for the first time, indicating that the energy revolution has entered a deeper stage. In the industrial silicon market, in Sichuan and Yunnan, production costs are rising as they transition from the wet season to the dry season in October, and some enterprises have stopped production. In Xinjiang, production is increasing due to stable and low - cost power supply [2] Demand Analysis - In the silicone segment, inventory is lower than the historical average, production profit has slightly recovered but is still in the loss range, and there is some rigid - demand procurement support. In the polysilicon segment, inventory is as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average, and there is a risk of weakening demand support. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate is stable, demand is high, but the marginal impact on prices is limited [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.61%. The position increased by 8,992 lots to 221,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,554 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 330 yuan/ton. Southwest production cuts are imminent, silicon factories are holding onto their goods and raising prices, and the costs of silicon coal and electricity are rising, causing the operating center of industrial silicon to move upward [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. The position increased by 3,498 lots to 118,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials was 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium turned into a discount of 860 yuan/ton. Due to the quota arrangement of the industry association, silicon wafer production cuts after November are basically certain. The weekly silicon wafer production schedule has increased significantly. The current high output is more likely to be a stage of concentrated pre - quota production rush by enterprises, and it cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the sprint stage for industrial production rush. Recently, the industry has announced that 17 enterprises have signed the capacity storage platform, and combined with the fact that downstream purchases have exceeded upstream output for the first time, it supports the continued strong operation of polysilicon [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend on October 29th. The reasons for the upward movement of industrial silicon include production cuts in the Southwest, silicon factories holding onto goods and raising prices, and rising costs of silicon coal and electricity. For polysilicon, factors such as industry quota arrangements, production rush, and the capacity storage platform signing support its strong operation [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,955 yuan/ton on October 28th to 9,170 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 215 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable, with only the price of oxygen - containing 553 silicon in Huangpu Port increasing by 50 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 200 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 706 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,935 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 400 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 54,355 yuan/ton on October 28th to 54,990 yuan/ton on October 29th, an increase of 635 yuan/ton. The price of N - type polysilicon dense materials and recycled materials decreased by 500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium turned into a discount, with a decrease of 1,015 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 24,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market decreased by 200 yuan/ton, the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable [3]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][12]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][21]. - **Inventory**: The charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, and inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][26]. - **Cost - Profit**: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [30][32][37].