交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比减少1.21%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为21.1万吨， 处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为73200吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润 为46元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为70.59%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭 库存为5.79万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为176元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为605.88元/吨，再 生铝开工率为55.3%，环比增加3.36%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/9/8 | 2025/9/9 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 8545 | 8530 | -15 | | | | 近月 | 8690 | 8555 | -135 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8950 | 8950 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 8850 | 8850 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 通氧55 ...

2025 年 09 月 08 日 工业硅：关注市场情绪变化 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,820 | 305 | 430 | 120 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 563,286 | 191,481 | 224,312 | 98,203 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 286,545 | 9,240 | -5,870 | 77,809 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 56,735 | 4,540 | 7,180 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 665,242 | 397,162 | 312,183 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 185,039 | 39,089 | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the main idea is to short at high prices; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to policy - related information [2] - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking a. Futures Market - Si2511: The closing price is 8,515 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 371,805 lots, and the open interest is 277,305 lots. Compared with different reference days (T - 1, T - 5, T - 22), there are corresponding changes [2] - PS2511: The closing price is 52,195 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 268,080 lots, and the open interest is 145,950 lots, with specific changes compared to previous days [2] b. Basis - Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts when benchmarked against different products (such as Si5530, Si4210, Xinjiang 99 silicon), and polysilicon also has a spot premium and discount when benchmarked against N - type re - investment [2] c. Price - Industrial silicon prices vary by region and type, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8,500 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 9,650 yuan/ton; polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 51,500 yuan/ton [2] d. Profit - Silicon factory profits for different types (Xinjiang new standard 553 and Yunnan new standard 553) are negative, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.3 yuan/kg [2] e. Inventory - Industrial silicon has different inventory types, including social inventory (53.7 million tons), enterprise inventory (17.1 million tons), industry inventory (70.8 million tons), and futures warehouse receipt inventory (25.0 million tons); polysilicon factory inventory is 21.1 million tons [2] f. Raw Material Cost - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon and polysilicon, such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., have different price levels and changes [2] g. Price and Profit in Related Industries - In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) industry, prices of products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc., and profits of related enterprises are provided; in the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries, prices and profits of products are also given [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026". The plan sets various goals for the industry from 2025 - 2026, such as average growth rate of added value, revenue scale, and market penetration rate [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable loss in Q2 due to falling industrial silicon prices and operational challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.775 billion yuan, down 26.34% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million yuan, a decrease of 140.60% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 4.548 billion yuan, a decline of 42.11% year-on-year and 13.02% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -657 million yuan, down 245.87% year-on-year and 352.93% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The gross profit margin was 7.92%, down 15.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -4.23%, down 11.41 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions - The industrial silicon price significantly decreased in Q2 2025 due to weak raw material prices and macroeconomic pessimism, leading to a decline in sales volume and prices [2]. - The company sold 214,600 tons of industrial silicon in Q2, down 47.2% year-on-year and 17.4% quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of 7,337.8 yuan per ton, down 36.2% year-on-year [2]. Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate the downward price trend in the market, benefiting the company as it focuses on eliminating low-price competition and phasing out outdated capacity [3]. - The supply-demand dynamics are gradually improving, with expectations for industrial silicon prices to stabilize and recover as market demand rebounds [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging its advantages in industrial chain collaboration to strengthen its position as a dual leader in industrial silicon and organic silicon [4]. - Efforts include reducing energy consumption in industrial silicon production and enhancing product quality through technological upgrades and process optimization [4]. - New product developments, such as amino silicone oil and organic silicone emulsions, are positioned to meet international standards and cater to various industries [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 23.082 billion, 29.376 billion, and 31.269 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.019 billion, 2.121 billion, and 2.677 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its industry leadership and growth potential despite current challenges [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9万吨 ， | | 环比有所增加2 27% 。 . | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 2万吨 ， | 环比增长3 80% . . | 需求有所抬升 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | | 硅库存为21 3万吨 ， . | | 处于低位 ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon in the strategy [5][7] - Inter-temporal: None [5][7][8] - Inter-commodity: None [5][7][8] - Spot-futures: None [5][7][8] - Options: None [5][7][8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but there are issues of overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly in September. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On September 2, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,480 yuan/ton and closed at 8,470 yuan/ton, up 1.13% (95 yuan/ton) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,480 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,029 lots, down 371 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1] - The consumption of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable. The price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Silicone enterprises face increased cost pressure, and the peak-season restocking of end consumers is average [1] Polysilicon - On September 2, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 oscillated strongly, opening at 52,360 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, up 3.97% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 145,855 lots (150,409 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 530,778 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N-type material was 49.00 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and N-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon producers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a month-on-month decrease of 14.29%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a month-on-month increase of 3.68%). The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 6.53%), and the silicon wafer production was 13.31GW (a month-on-month increase of 8.30%) [4] - In September, most domestic silicon wafer enterprises increased their production scheduling plans, and the overall output showed an upward trend compared to August [4] - In September, the global battery production scheduling was about 60GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 59GW in August), and the domestic production scheduling was about 59GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 58GW in August) [6] - The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price fluctuates slightly. The short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but due to overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] Polysilicon - In September, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management, continuously follow up on policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7]

Group 1 - The conference on standardization in the silicon industry will be held from September 10 to 12, 2025, in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, coinciding with the 2025 China Silicon Industry Conference [2] - Discussions will focus on the revision of mandatory national standards related to energy consumption limits for various silicon products and the planning of a green, intelligent, and high-end standard system for the silicon industry [2] - Participants are required to register online before September 9, 2025, through the Nonferrous Metals Conference website [4] Group 2 - The conference will take place at the Qingshan Hotel in Baotou, with accommodation arrangements being self-funded [3] - Contact information for key personnel involved in the silicon industry association is provided for further inquiries [8]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern has improved, the spot price has minor fluctuations, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment [3] - For polysilicon, the production has increased and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, but the total inventory is still accumulating. The downstream wafer production has improved. The recent spot price has moved up, and the futures price is basically flat with the spot price after a decline. The market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long term [8] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely. The main contract 2511 opened at 8530 yuan/ton and closed at 8570 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 273,754 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,656 lots, a change of - 53 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9400 - 9600 (- 50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 541,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 (0) yuan/ton. The prices of main silicone products were close to the enterprise cost line, and the market was in a stalemate with low - price transactions. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [2] Group 4: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 49,220 yuan/ton and closing at 49,665 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.10% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 143,912 lots (154,537 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 376,304 lots [5] - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a change of - 14.29% month - on - month), the wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a change of 3.68% month - on - month), the weekly polysilicon production was 31,000.00 tons (a change of 6.53% month - on - month), and the wafer production was 15.63GW (a change of 27.18% month - on - month) [5] Group 5: Price Information of Other Products - **Silicon wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.58 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.38 (0.00) yuan/piece [7] - **Battery cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [7] - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Group 6: Strategies - **Industrial silicon**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the current fundamental changes are small. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment [3] - **Polysilicon**: In the short - term, conduct range trading. In the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to buy on dips. Pay attention to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]

证券研究报告 合盛硅业 (603260 CH) Q2 盈利承压下行，工业硅景气待复苏 2025 年 8 月 28 日│中国内地 化学原料 合盛硅业于 8 月 27 日发布 25H1 半年度报告：上半年实现营收 97.8 亿元， 同比-26%，归母净利润-4.0 亿元，同比-141%，扣非净利润-5.3 亿元，同 比-159%；其中 Q2 实现归母净利润-6.7 亿元，同比-246%/环比-353%，扣 Q2 工业硅量价承压较大，硅橡胶销量环比减少 工业硅方面，受下游需求端的多晶硅/有机硅开工下降以及行业高库存影响， Q2 销量同比-47%/环比-17%至 21.5 万吨，营收同比-66%/环比-35%至 15.7 亿元，H1 工业硅毛利率同比-15pct 至 14.6%。有机硅方面，二季度行业整 体实施减产稳价，Q2 硅橡胶销量同比-15%/环比-6%至 16.3 万吨，硅橡胶 营收同比-23%/环比-11%至 18.3 亿元，原料工业硅、氯甲烷价格下跌支撑 毛利率维稳，H1 有机硅毛利率同比+1pct 至 17.4%。公司 25H1 计提存货 减值损失 1.68 亿元。子公司西部合盛/中部合盛/东部合盛/新 ...