2025 年 06 月 16 日 工业硅：空配思路为主 多晶硅：现货弱势，盘面具下行驱动 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） | 7,345 | -110 | 55 | -885 | | | | Si2507成交量（手） | 370,370 | 60,742 | -296,013 | 39,770 | | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 103,689 | -17,815 | -57,503 | -58,610 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 33,695 | 110 | -1,045 | - | | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 82,151 | 16,560 | -52,292 | - | | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 56,863 | -4,835 ...

然橡胶产业期现目报 中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发明货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同消 分析方法，并不代表广发期货或晨附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或润 者据此得资,风险自相,本报告宣布发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归广发期货所有,未经广发期货书面授 任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共矿 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13750 | 13850 | -100 | -0.72% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -140 | વર્ત | -185 | -411.11% | 元/吨 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, polysilicon and industrial silicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main polysilicon contract 2507 closed at 34,540 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.27%, and the position decreased by 2,071 lots to 65,802 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium over the main contract expanding to 1,960 yuan/ton. The main industrial silicon contract 2507 closed at 7,135 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.56%, and the position decreased by 3,637 lots to 184,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,777 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 460 yuan/ton [2]. - The reduction of electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest has led to the resumption of production, and large factories in the northwest will not cut production as in previous years. Downstream procurement has significantly decreased. It is expected that the lower support for industrial silicon comes from the cash cost line of large factories in Xinjiang, and the upper pressure stems from high inventory and increasing supply pressure. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting will be held again in June. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, under the pressure of collapsing demand, the industry is expected to clarify an expanded production limit quota. For industrial silicon, a short - selling strategy on rallies can be maintained under marginal pressure. For polysilicon, pay attention to production cut news. The one - sided decline of near - month contracts is limited due to warehouse receipt restrictions, and fluctuations will intensify [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 7,140 yuan/ton. Among the 421 silicon spot prices, the prices in some regions such as the East China, Tianjin Port, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while most 553 silicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded by 35 yuan to 460 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 494 to 61,309, and the weekly inventory in various ports and factories decreased, with the total social inventory decreasing by 11,800 tons to 409,100 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 515 yuan/ton to 34,540 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 1,875 yuan/ton to 36,115 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained stable, with the current lowest deliverable price at 36,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanding by 515 yuan to 1,960 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 110 to 2,030. The weekly inventory in the GFE increased by 13,000 tons to 14,100 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 268,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 268,000 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [3]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and clean coal prices [4][5][7][10]. 2.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][21]. 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [24][25][30]. 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, are also members of the team [32][33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant achievements and technological advancements of Yongxiang Co., a large high-tech enterprise under Tongwei, specializing in high-purity silicon and related materials [1][2][5] - Yongxiang Co. has received numerous prestigious awards, including "National High-tech Enterprise," "National Green Factory," and "China Construction Engineering Luban Award," showcasing its commitment to innovation and quality [2][3] - The company boasts an advanced team of technical talents and research capabilities, with over 800 independent intellectual property research results in various technology fields, including cold hydrogenation and energy recovery [5] Group 2 - Yongxiang Co. has developed the "Eighth Generation Yongxiang Method" for high-purity silicon production, with research reserves extending to the "Ninth Generation," achieving product purity levels exceeding 99.999999999% [5] - The company's products cover both electronic-grade and solar-grade silicon, with quality and comprehensive technical indicators reaching international advanced levels, representing "China Intelligent Manufacturing" in high-purity silicon [5]

天胶观点 交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月30日 现货价格及基差 品种 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 14050 -200 -1.42% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -30 245 -275 -112.24% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13800 14400 -600 -4.17% 非标价差 -80 295 -675 -113.45% 品种 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 49.95 51.60 -1.65 -3.20% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 62.75 -0.50 -0.80% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12200 12800 -4.69% -600 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13300 12600 -700 -5.26% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12900 13100 -200 -1.53% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌幅 单 ...

（李敏） 本周工业硅市场在供应增加的预期下，看空情绪进一步加重，同时需求不振和期货盘面不断创新 低，对现货价格压力较大，现货价格下跌。供应端，北方大厂继续复产，同时丰水期即将来临，虽南方 仅有小部分厂家筹备开炉，但整体产量仍将会有较为明显的增加。需求端，有机硅单体厂目前供应较为 稳定，但6月份检修计划较少，产量有增加预期，对工业硅需求增加；多晶硅近期各厂开工率各有增 减，整体变动不大；铝合金厂按需采购工业硅，工业硅三大下游总需求增加。价格方面，有机硅单体厂 以执行前期订单为主，市场活跃度较低，下游需求较为疲软，价格小幅下跌；多晶硅价格小幅下跌。 近期工业硅盘面价格接连下跌，今日收盘价跌至新低7340元/吨，对现货市场冲击较大，叠加目前 整体市场较为悲观，下游需求也难见增量，库存去化较为困难，价格难见上涨迹象。 本周工业硅现货价格小幅下跌。过去一周（2025年5月22日-28日），主力合约收盘价从7880元/吨 震荡波动至7340元/吨，跌幅为6.85%。全国综合价格为8961元/吨，下跌98元/吨，其中分牌号来看，553 为8652元/吨、441为9215元/吨、421为9617元/吨，分别下跌100元/吨、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asian producing areas is affected by heavy rainfall, but there is an expectation of increased supply after the rainy season, and raw material pressure may gradually emerge. Demand from tire enterprises is in a state of restorative improvement, but tire factory inventories have resumed accumulating, with significant inventory pressure on semi - steel tires. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate weakly, and previous short positions should be held. Attention should be paid to the performance at the 14,000 level [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. The spot price in East China has continued to decline by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while the price in Xinjiang has stabilized. With an expected increase in supply, the price of industrial silicon futures SI2507 has decreased by 305 yuan/ton to 7,610 yuan/ton. The supply side is expected to grow despite weak demand, mainly due to the resumption of production of small enterprises in Southwest China, the commissioning of new production capacities, and the resumption of production of large enterprises. The main demand, the photovoltaic industry chain, continues to weaken, but the organic silicon industry shows some signs of improvement. With limited demand growth, declining raw material costs, and an expected increase in production, the fundamentals remain bearish, and prices are still under pressure [3]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is gradually stabilizing, but the far - month futures price has dropped significantly due to the decline in the price of raw material industrial silicon and the expected increase in supply. The price of PS2507 has decreased by 1,205 yuan/ton to 34,885 yuan/ton, a decline of over 3%. Some polysilicon enterprises are resuming production in conjunction with capacity replacement or are still in the commissioning phase. The 06 contract is relatively firm as the first delivery is approaching in June, with a position of about 14,000 lots and no increase in warehouse receipts, which remain at 470 lots. Technically, the polysilicon futures price is still under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in polysilicon production [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Despite the negative pressure of the commissioning of Lianyungang Alkali Industry last week, it will take time to produce products. The recent production decline due to maintenance is significant, and there is a strong expectation of maintenance in June. Therefore, the downward trend in the futures market has slowed. Considering short - term supply changes, it is more likely that inventories will remain stable. Fundamentally, the resumption of production in the photovoltaic industry has brought some demand for soda ash, but the overall demand has not increased significantly due to the stable and slightly decreasing float glass production capacity. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after the maintenance period ends. From May to June, the implementation of maintenance can be monitored. If maintenance occurs, it will be beneficial for the June - July contracts. Short - term operations can involve short - selling on rebounds for far - month contracts, and calendar spreads between July and September can be considered [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market for glass is performing poorly, and market sentiment remains pessimistic. This week, the spot price of glass has mainly continued to weaken, with widespread price cuts in various regions. During the decline in the futures market, spot - futures traders have mainly sold, affecting the production and sales rate of manufacturers. From April to May, downstream deep - processing orders have gradually improved, and the demand from processing plants has seasonally recovered, leading to a phased improvement in glass supply and demand. However, market expectations are poor, with an expected slowdown in demand after June due to the summer rainy season. The actual fundamentals have marginally improved, but expectations and sentiment are moderately bearish. It is expected that the short - term glass price will continue to be under pressure and will operate weakly with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to whether the 09 contract can break through the 1,000 level, as a breakthrough may lead to further decline [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai has decreased from 14,700 yuan/ton on May 23 to 14,300 yuan/ton on May 26, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 2.72%. The basis of whole - latex (switched to the 2509 contract) has decreased from 165 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton or 160.61%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased from 14,400 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.35%. The non - standard price difference has increased from - 135 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton or 62.96% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread has increased from - 785 yuan/ton to - 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 3.18%. The 1 - 5 spread has decreased from - 105 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 19.05%. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from 890 yuan/ton to 885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.56% [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, the production in Thailand decreased by 29.16% to 105,700 tons, the production in Indonesia decreased by 7.26% to 194,100 tons, the production in India decreased by 14.34% to 45,400 tons, and the production in China decreased by 58.10% to 15,800 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires has decreased by 0.11 percentage points to 78.22%, and the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires has decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 64.96%. Domestic tire production in April decreased by 5.07% to 102.002 million units, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 7.87% to 57.39 million units. The total import volume of natural rubber in March increased by 18.07% to 594,100 tons, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April decreased by 9.21% to 690,000 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) has decreased by 0.73% to 614,189 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE has decreased by 38.02% to 43,544 tons [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - enriched S15530 industrial silicon has decreased from 8,650 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.58%. The basis (based on oxygen - enriched SI5530) has decreased from 770 yuan/ton to 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 11.04%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon has decreased from 9,500 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The basis (based on SI4210) has decreased from 820 yuan/ton to 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 16.46%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon has remained unchanged at 8,020 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2506 - 2507 spread has remained unchanged at - 30 yuan/ton, the 2507 - 2508 spread has decreased from - 30 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 16.67%, the 2508 - 2509 spread has decreased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 20.00%, the 2509 - 2510 spread has increased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 40.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread has decreased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 20.00% [3]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 300,800 tons, the production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55% to 167,500 tons, the production in Yunnan increased by 9.35% to 13,500 tons, and the production in Sichuan increased by 145.65% to 11,300 tons. The national operating rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%, the operating rate in Xinjiang decreased by 22.18% to 60.74%, the operating rate in Yunnan decreased by 9.21% to 18.13%, and the operating rate in Sichuan increased by 1389.80% to 7.30%. The production of organic silicon DMC in April decreased by 8.04% to 172,800 tons, the production of polysilicon decreased by 0.73% to 95,400 tons, the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 5.28% to 610,000 tons, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 1.64% to 60,500 tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang has decreased by 6.95% to 187,400 tons, the factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan has increased by 1.26% to 24,100 tons, the factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan has decreased by 0.44% to 22,500 tons, the social inventory has decreased by 2.84% to 582,000 tons, the warehouse - receipt inventory has decreased by 1.00% to 324,600 tons, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory has decreased by 5.06% to 257,400 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type reclaimed feedstock, P - type cauliflower feedstock, and N - type granular silicon has remained unchanged at 36,500 yuan/ton, 30,000 yuan/ton, and 34,000 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of N - type feedstock (average price) has increased from 410 yuan/ton to 1,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,205 yuan/ton or 293.90%, and the basis of cauliflower feedstock (average price) has increased from 5,910 yuan/ton to 7,115 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,205 yuan/ton or 20.39% [5]. Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spreads - The price of PS2506 has decreased from 36,090 yuan/ton to 34,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,205 yuan/ton or 3.34%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread has increased from 1,105 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 995 yuan/ton or 90.05%, the PS2507 - PS2508 spread has increased from 735 yuan/ton to 852 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton or 16.33%, the PS2508 - PS2509 spread has increased from 265 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton or 32.08%, the PS2509 - PS2510 spread has decreased from 270 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton or 57.41%, the PS2510 - PS2511 spread has increased from 80 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton or 137.50%, and the PS2511 - PS2512 spread has decreased from - 1,715 yuan/ton to - 1,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 1.17% [5]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: The silicon wafer production increased by 7.09% to 13,300 GM, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.47% to 21,500 tons. Monthly: In April, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.73% to 95,400 tons, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 69.49% to 10,000 tons, the polysilicon export volume decreased by 37.06% to 13,000 tons, the net polysilicon export volume increased by 127.44% to 3,000 tons, the silicon wafer production increased by 14.95% to 58,350 GM, the silicon wafer import volume increased by 46.90% to 900 tons, the silicon wafer export volume increased by 7.13% to 6,300 tons, and the silicon wafer net export volume increased by 2.64% to 5,500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00% to 260,000 tons, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52% to 18,950 GM, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470 [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass price remained unchanged at 1,180 yuan/ton, the East China price remained unchanged at 1,310 yuan/ton, the Central China price decreased by 0.88% to 1,120 yuan/ton, and the South China price remained unchanged at 1,320 yuan/ton. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 1.25% to 1,130 yuan/ton, and the price of Glass 2509 increased by 1.90% to 1,019 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 21.88% to 50 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,500 yuan/ton, the East China price remained unchanged at 1,450 yuan/ton, the Central China price remained unchanged at 1,400 yuan/ton, and the Northwest price remained unchanged at 1,120 yuan/ton. The price of Soda Ash 2505 decreased by 0.85% to 1,288 yuan/ton, and the price of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 0.08% to 1,254 yuan/ton. The 05 - 7 spread increased by 5.47% to 212 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.04% to 78.63%, the weekly soda ash production decreased by 2.05% to 663,800 tons, the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 156,700 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 99,990 tons. The price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% to 21 yuan [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46% to 67,769,000 weight boxes, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06% to 1.6768 million tons, the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.82% to 368,000 tons, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 18.1 days [6]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year) - The new construction area increased by

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, with an operating range of 7,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, the transaction price is moving down, and it is advisable to short on the 07 contract. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price Data - Industrial silicon: The average price of oxygen - free 553 (East China) dropped 1.16% to 8,500 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) dropped 1.04% to 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 7,880 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. [1] - Polysilicon: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. [1] - Other products: Most silicon wafer, battery piece, and component prices remained unchanged, while the price of single - crystal PERC battery piece M10 - 182mm dropped 1.04% to 0.29 yuan/watt. [1] 2. Industry News - Shaanxi Wuke Jinsilicon New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. plans to invest 200 million yuan to produce 1,000 tons of silicon - carbon anode materials annually. [1] - In May 2025, Shengquan Group completed a 10,000 - ton hard - carbon anode production line and plans to invest 2.48 billion yuan to expand production. [1] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial silicon supply: In April, the overall output dropped to about 300,000 tons. In May, it is expected to increase slightly due to复产 in the southwest and new capacity ramping up, but the increase is limited. [1] - Industrial silicon demand: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and restart may be delayed; organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the开工 rate is expected to drop below 55% in May; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises buy on demand. [1] - Polysilicon supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production cuts, and some new capacity may be put into production, with output expected to stay within 100,000 tons. [1] - Polysilicon demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with inventory rising and prices of silicon wafers, battery pieces, and components falling. [1] 4. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to short on rebounds, with a short - term operating range of 7,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Follow silicon enterprises' production dynamics. [1] - Polysilicon: Consider shorting on the 07 contract and follow the evolution of "high positions and low warehouse receipts". [1]

身的来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可售的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的精确性及完整生不化任何民证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点 见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其他周机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，提告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所选品种买卖的出价或损 管锯此投资,风险自慰。本报告音在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发明货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行 t的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" 交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 5月19日 | 5月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全到胶(SCRWF):上海 | 15000 | 14950 | 50 | 0.33% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -5 | 45 | -50 | -111.11% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14600 ...

工业硅：底部震荡态势，关注上游变量 多晶硅：短期空配思路 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面震荡偏弱，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面亦偏弱，现货报价下移 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面走势先涨后跌，但整体呈下行态势，周五收于 8145 元/吨。现货市 场价格亦下跌，具体而言，SMM 统计新疆通氧 Si5530 报价 8300 元/吨（环比-100），内蒙 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨(环比-150)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面受上游工厂联合减产等消息有所提振，但周五受新能源板块影响亦大 幅回落，周五收于 36850 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场而言，上游报价亦有下降，关注本月后续的签单情况。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 05 月 18 日 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存高位去库；多晶硅上游库存有所去库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅去库。据百川统计，本周西南地区如四川硅厂继续复产，云南硅厂后 续亦有复产计划，新疆、河南地区工厂小幅减产，整体周度产量边际递减。开工角度来看，西北地区，新疆 工厂开工未见明显缩减，部分原因 ...