Overall Requirements - The document emphasizes the importance of establishing a unified national carbon market to effectively address climate change while promoting economic development [2] - The main goals include achieving comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 and establishing a robust carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [2] National Carbon Emission Trading Market - The plan includes expanding the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, and carbon emission characteristics [3] - A transparent carbon emission quota management system will be established, transitioning from intensity control to total volume control by 2027 [3] - The document outlines the need for a balance between carbon emission control and energy security, as well as the gradual increase of paid quota distribution [3] Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reduction Trading Market - The establishment of a comprehensive methodology for voluntary reduction projects is prioritized, focusing on areas with significant sustainable development benefits [5] - The document encourages the use of certified voluntary reduction amounts in various sectors, including government and enterprises, to offset carbon emissions [5] Enhancing Market Vitality - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions, enhancing support for greenhouse gas reduction [6] - The introduction of new trading participants, including individuals and financial institutions, is planned to diversify market engagement [6] - Strengthening market regulation and monitoring to prevent market manipulation and ensure fair trading practices is emphasized [6] Capacity Building for Carbon Market - A management system that aligns with the development stages of the national carbon market will be established to enhance oversight and operational efficiency [7] - The document stresses the importance of accurate carbon emission accounting and reporting, with a focus on developing national standards [7] - It highlights the need for rigorous verification processes for carbon emissions to ensure the credibility of reported data [7] Organizational Implementation Support - Local governments are tasked with leading the implementation of the carbon market initiatives, ensuring compliance and effective management of emission quotas [9] - The document calls for the development of legal frameworks to support carbon market operations and enhance regulatory enforcement [10] - International cooperation and dialogue on carbon market mechanisms are encouraged to align with global climate change efforts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the first central document regarding the national carbon market, outlining a long-term development roadmap and tasks for carbon market construction in China [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The document emphasizes the need to expand the coverage of the mandatory carbon market based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics [1] - A transparent carbon emission quota management system will be established, transitioning from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions [1] - The allocation of quotas will shift from entirely free to a combination of free and paid, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations [1] Group 2: Voluntary Carbon Market and Financial Products - The development of a voluntary carbon market will be actively pursued, with a focus on establishing a comprehensive methodology for key areas such as ecosystem carbon sinks and methane reduction [1] - Financial institutions will be engaged to explore green financial products related to carbon emissions rights and verified voluntary reduction amounts, including policies for carbon pledges and carbon repurchase [1] Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Market Performance - Strict regulations will be enforced for carbon emission verification, and responsibilities for carbon accounting and reporting will be reinforced among key emission units [2] - The carbon market has developed a multi-level regulatory framework over four years, with the coverage of key industries expanding to include steel, cement, and aluminum, managing over 60% of national carbon emissions [2] - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission rights reached 680 million tons, with a transaction value of 47.41 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening the Construction of the National Carbon Market" marks the first central document in China's carbon market sector, outlining a medium to long-term development roadmap and tasks for the national carbon market [2] Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has formed a multi-level and relatively complete regulatory system over four years, with an expanding coverage of key industries, now including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which together account for over 60% of national carbon emissions [1] - As of August 22, 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market reached 680 million tons, with a transaction value of 47.41 billion yuan, while the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction market recorded a cumulative transaction of 2.49 million tons and a value of 210 million yuan [1] Group 2: Future Directions and Strategies - The plan emphasizes expanding the coverage of the mandatory carbon market based on industry development status, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics, transitioning from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions [2] - The allocation of carbon allowances will shift from entirely free to a combination of free and paid allocations, gradually increasing the proportion of paid allocations [2] - The development of voluntary carbon markets will be promoted, establishing a comprehensive methodological system for key areas such as ecosystem carbon sinks and methane reduction [2] Group 3: Financial Integration and Regulation - Collaboration with financial institutions will be explored to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions and certified voluntary reduction volumes, including policies for carbon pledges and buybacks [2] - Strict regulations on carbon emission verification will be enforced, enhancing the accountability of key emission units for carbon accounting and reporting, while improving the quality of carbon emission data through comprehensive supervision [3] - Continuous improvement of relevant laws and regulations will be pursued to strengthen the institutional foundation for carbon market construction, aiming for a more effective, vibrant, and internationally influential national carbon market [3]

Core Insights - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has achieved significant results in its four years of operation, with a cumulative trading volume of 681 million tons and a total transaction value of 46.784 billion yuan as of July 31, 2025, making it an important part of the global carbon market system [1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the establishment of zero-carbon parks and the promotion of the national carbon market, highlighting its critical role in controlling greenhouse gas emissions and facilitating green transformation in the context of the "dual carbon" goals [1] Group 1: Market Development - China's carbon market has made multi-dimensional breakthroughs over four years, with an increasingly完善制度体系, expanding coverage to include key industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, and broadening the scope of greenhouse gas control beyond just carbon dioxide [1] - The carbon market consists of a mandatory carbon market and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market, serving as an important tool for promoting greenhouse gas reduction and facilitating a comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society [1] Group 2: International Comparison - Compared to mature systems like the EU carbon market, China's carbon market shows significant gaps, with the EU market having reduced carbon emissions by approximately 47% since 2005 and raised over 175 billion euros for green transformation through quota auctions [2] - China's carbon market primarily relies on free allocation for quota distribution, and there is a need to expand the industry coverage and improve market stability mechanisms [2] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - To address challenges, a systematic approach is needed to enhance the operational mechanism and accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, including the improvement of digital systems and databases for carbon emissions monitoring [3] - Strengthening carbon financial support capabilities is essential, with suggestions to explore various paths for financial support, including establishing special funds for carbon market development and encouraging financial institutions to innovate carbon financial products [3] Group 4: Regional Development - The objective reality of regional development disparities complicates the construction of a unified national carbon market, suggesting the need for differentiated policy implementation while maintaining unified market rules [4] - Encouraging pilot programs in regions with mature conditions can help form a multi-level, differentiated carbon market policy system, providing institutional guarantees for the stable operation of the carbon market [4]

Overall Requirements - The carbon market is a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a comprehensive green transition in economic and social development [1] - The construction of a unified national carbon market is prioritized, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation efficiency and maximizing benefits [1] Main Goals - By 2027, the national carbon emission trading market will cover major industrial sectors, and the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas [2] - By 2030, a comprehensive carbon emission trading market will be established, featuring a combination of free and paid allocation methods, with a transparent and internationally aligned voluntary reduction trading market [2] Accelerating Carbon Emission Trading Market Construction - The coverage of the national carbon emission trading market will be expanded based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics [2][3] - A transparent carbon emission quota management system will be established, with a gradual shift from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions [3] Developing Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reduction Trading Market - A comprehensive methodology system will be established to support voluntary reduction projects, ensuring effective management throughout the project lifecycle [4] - The application of certified voluntary reduction amounts will be promoted across various sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing international recognition [5] Enhancing Market Vitality - Financial institutions will be encouraged to develop green financial products related to carbon emissions, expanding channels for corporate carbon asset management [6] - The introduction of new trading entities, including individuals, will be supported to enhance market participation [6] Strengthening Carbon Market Capacity Building - A management system that aligns with the development stages of the national carbon market will be established, focusing on efficient operation and clear responsibilities [7] - The carbon emission accounting and reporting management will be improved, with a focus on establishing a robust reporting system for enterprises [7] Organizational Implementation Assurance - Local governments and relevant departments are tasked with implementing the guidelines effectively, ensuring policy support for carbon market operations [10] - Legal frameworks will be developed to support carbon market construction, including regulations for voluntary reduction trading [10][11]

面对挑战，需以系统思维协同发力，健全运行机制，加快推进全国统一碳市场建设。 完善数字化体系和数据库统一。当前，我国碳排放监测、报告与核查体系已完成初步搭建，未来需要进 一步通过数字化赋能，加强互联互通。整合卫星遥感、物联网设备和区块链技术，构建覆盖碳排放全流 程的数字化监测体系，实现排放数据实时同步。整合生态环境、金融监管、数据管理等部门职能，完善 机构监管、功能监管、行为监管三位一体的监管体系，对控排企业、交易机构、核查单位实施全链条管 理。 强化碳金融支撑能力。针对当前全国碳市场参与主体以控排企业为主体、现货交易为主、碳金融手段有 限的现状，可借鉴欧盟碳市场经验，探索多种路径完善金融支持。支持地方设立碳市场发展专项资金， 吸引社会资本参与碳基础设施建设，或会同相关金融主管部门鼓励金融机构探索碳金融产品创新，挖掘 碳排放权价值，创新金融服务形式。 此外，我国区域发展存在差异的客观现实进一步加大了构建全国统一碳市场的复杂性。在坚持统一市场 规则的前提下，可以因地制宜探索差异化政策实施方案，在配额分配、履约机制等方面给予部分地区适 当政策倾斜，鼓励条件成熟地区先行先试，形成多层次、差异化的碳市场政策体系，为碳市 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within the price range of €63 - 76. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the EU carbon market. Positive factors include increased buying due to approaching compliance deadlines and strong auctions in the German primary market. Negative factors are the widening short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal, which encourages power generation to use more natural gas [1]. 3. Market Conditions Summary Primary Market - The auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, with a 2.91% increase, and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.14 euros/ton, the auction volume was 160,700 tons, and the auction revenue was 115.93 million euros. On August 7, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.10 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324,550 tons, and the auction revenue was 227.51 million euros [2]. Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.21 euros/ton, up 2.01%, and the trading volume was 28,200 lots, with an increase of 0.28 [1]. - On August 8, 2025, compared with August 7, 2025, the futures settlement price increased from 71.77 to 73.21 euros/ton, the trading volume increased from 2.54 to 2.82 million lots, and the open interest remained unchanged. The spot settlement price increased from 71.14 to 72.56 euros/ton, and the spot trading volume decreased from 2462 to 1602 lots [3]. 4. Strategy and Influencing Factors Strategy - The strategy is to buy low and sell high, with the price range between €63 and 76 [1]. Influencing Factors - Positive: As the compliance deadline approaches, compliance demand drives buying, and the German primary market auction is strong [1]. - Negative: The short - term marginal cost difference between gas and coal further widens, encouraging power generation to use more natural gas instead of coal [1]. - Others: Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss the Ukraine issue, and it is hinted that the final armistice agreement may involve territorial exchange [1].

Group 1 - The steel industry is included in the national carbon market, which aims for a green and low-carbon transition, with the path still needing clarification [1] - As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances reached 679 million tons, with a transaction value of 46.64 billion yuan [1] - The national carbon market has been operational for over four years, covering key industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with approximately 3,700 enterprises and an annual emission coverage of over 8 billion tons [1] Group 2 - The regulatory framework for the national carbon market has been established, consisting of administrative regulations, departmental rules, and technical specifications [2] - In 2024, the trading volume was 18.8 million tons, with a transaction value of 18.044 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.92% [2] - The carbon allowance price has increased from 48 yuan per ton at the start to a current range of 70-80 yuan per ton, with a peak above 100 yuan in April 2024 [2] Group 3 - The expansion of the carbon market to three additional industries faces challenges such as weak data foundations and insufficient carbon management capabilities [3] - The steel industry will undergo a phased and orderly entry into the carbon market, with a focus on improving data quality and enhancing enterprise capabilities [3] - The next steps include accelerating the green and low-carbon transition in the steel industry and familiarizing enterprises with market rules [3]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for July 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price indices and China Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] - The expected buy price for national carbon emission allowances in July 2025 is 70.67 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 76.67 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.67 yuan/ton [1] - The buy price index increased by 3.37% to 176.66, while the sell price index rose by 2.52% to 172.98, and the midpoint price index increased by 2.93% to 174.73 [1] Group 2 - In June, the carbon price continued to rise, starting from 68.34 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and reaching 76.57 yuan/ton by the end, with a monthly increase of over 12% [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in June was 781,000 tons, a 43.1% increase compared to May's 545,800 tons [2] - Global carbon markets showed varied performance in June, with different trading volumes and price trends across major carbon markets, and New Zealand's carbon market experienced the largest month-on-month price increase [2]

Group 1 - The introduction of international emissions trading at COP3 in 1997 aimed to help countries meet their emission reduction commitments through the purchase of carbon credits [1] - The carbon market is divided into mandatory and voluntary types, with Europe leading the establishment of emissions trading systems, followed by countries like China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia [1][3] - The lack of a unified international standard has hindered the establishment of a robust market, with the Paris Agreement's Article 6 still facing challenges in implementation due to verification method issues [1][8] Group 2 - The UN approved the "Paris Agreement Carbon Credit Mechanism" (PACM) in May 2025, providing guidance for evaluating the effectiveness of emission reduction projects [1] - The new standards include a baseline standard to estimate potential emissions without the mechanism and a leakage standard to account for unintended emissions increases [1][15] - The establishment of the "Development Carbon Market Alliance" by Singapore, Kenya, and the UK signifies a government-led initiative to advance carbon markets [2] Group 3 - Carbon markets help achieve emission reduction goals at lower costs, enhancing economic efficiency and promoting energy conservation awareness [3] - Major carbon markets include the EU carbon market and China's national carbon market, with the EU market being a mature example using an absolute cap-and-trade model [3][4] - China's carbon market, launched in July 2021, covers approximately 5.1 billion tons of CO2 emissions and includes 2,257 key emitting units [4] Group 4 - The Kyoto Protocol established the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in 2005, allowing developed countries to obtain certified emission reductions (CERs) through projects in developing countries [5] - The carbon market's core function is to create a carbon price signal that guides emission reduction actions, with the expectation that carbon prices will rise as emission caps tighten [5][6] Group 5 - The EU carbon market has seen a significant price increase, with expectations that prices will exceed €120 per ton by 2030 and €400 by 2040, reflecting the costs of advanced reduction measures [6] - The demand for carbon markets from countries is driven by the need to achieve climate goals cost-effectively, with different mechanisms in place across regions [6][7] Group 6 - The establishment of national carbon markets is crucial for countries to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement [7][9] - The EU's carbon market has undergone structural reforms to recover carbon prices after a prolonged period of low prices due to oversupply [7][9] Group 7 - The challenges in creating a global carbon market include historical issues with previous mechanisms and differing national interests between developed and developing countries [9][11] - The complexity of mechanism design and the need for clarity in methodologies and standards are significant barriers to establishing a unified global carbon market [9][10] Group 8 - The implementation of new standards aims to enhance the quality of carbon credits and ensure the authenticity of emission reductions, promoting high-quality development in global carbon markets [15][16] - Future directions include improving verification processes, enhancing international cooperation, and integrating carbon markets with global climate actions [15][17] Group 9 - China's transition from a seller to a buyer in the international carbon market poses challenges in aligning domestic mechanisms with international standards [19][20] - The national carbon market's tightening control over emissions will support China's dual carbon goals while balancing domestic and international climate trade requirements [20][21]