1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining, and the current comprehensive price has dropped to around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the peak in 2024. As the compliance period approaches, the spot price has rebounded. The optimal carry - forward rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry forward 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but need to apply before June 10, 2026 [9]. - According to the Fudan Carbon Index Research Center's model, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the highest price of the national carbon market composite price was 59.30 yuan/ton, the lowest was 50.34 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 51.96 yuan/ton, a 10.37% decrease from the same period last month. The trading volume of the listed agreement transaction was 10522.58 million tons, with a turnover of 487.1171 million yuan; the trading volume of the bulk agreement transaction was 3093.67 million tons, with a turnover of 1496.84425 billion yuan; the trading volume of the one - way auction was 10,000 tons, with a turnover of 4.475 million yuan [8]. - In the second week of November, the highest price of the national carbon market quota was 62.48 yuan/ton, the lowest was 57.72 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 60.17 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.12%. The trading volume of the listed agreement transaction was 614.79 million tons, with a turnover of 377.6497 million yuan; the trading volume of the bulk agreement transaction was 1062.71 million tons, with a turnover of 629.8574 million yuan; there was no one - way auction this week. The total trading volume of the national carbon emission quota this week was 1677.50 million tons, and the total turnover was 100.7507 million yuan [9]. 3.2 Market News - Recently, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low - Carbon Transformation and Strengthening the Construction of the Carbon Market", aiming to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market, implement quota total control and paid allocation, gradually tighten quotas, accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market, and improve the vitality of the national carbon market [11]. - At the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Brazil on November 11, Li Gao, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, stated that the carbon market has no unified standard model, and China will explore a carbon market system suitable for its national conditions. In the future, it will gradually implement quota total control and paid allocation [11]. - On November 13, Tu Guangshao said at the Taihu World Cultural Forum · Qiantang Dialogue that the carbon market has given rise to the form of carbon assets, and the inclusion of carbon assets in the balance sheet is of great significance in promoting the optimization of the green and low - carbon ecological system. Although the progress of carbon asset inclusion in the balance sheet in China shows a good momentum, the number of enterprises including carbon assets in the balance sheet is still insufficient [11]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided, only the titles of two figures "Electricity Generation Year - on - Year Growth Rate (%)" and "Newly Installed Photovoltaic Capacity" are given [12]

Core Insights - China's commitment to carbon peak and carbon neutrality has led to significant advancements in green and low-carbon development, establishing a comprehensive carbon reduction policy system and becoming a global leader in renewable energy and electric vehicles [1][2][3] Group 1: Waste Management and Recycling - By the end of 2024, 98.5% of urban communities in China will have waste classification facilities, reflecting a shift in public attitude towards environmental responsibility [1] - The transition from single-bin to multi-bin waste disposal signifies a broader commitment to sustainable practices [1] Group 2: Energy Transition - China is prioritizing the development of non-fossil energy, increasing its share from 16.0% in 2020 to 19.8% by 2024, with an annual increase of nearly 1 percentage point [2] - By August 2025, installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to exceed 1.69 billion kilowatts, tripling the 2020 figures and contributing to 80% of new power installations since 2020 [2] - The proportion of fossil energy consumption is projected to decrease from 84.0% in 2020 to 80.2% by 2024, indicating a steady move towards cleaner energy sources [2] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - As of June 2025, the number of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 36.89 million, accounting for 10.27% of the total vehicle ownership [3] - In 2024, Chinese new energy vehicles are projected to be exported to over 180 countries, helping to reduce global carbon emissions by over 50 million tons [3] - The "new three" sectors, including new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, are becoming key components of China's manufacturing identity, contributing over 18% to GDP in 2024 [3] Group 4: Green Finance and Carbon Market - By the end of 2024, the balance of green loans in China is expected to reach 36.6 trillion yuan, with nearly 70% directed towards carbon reduction projects [5] - The green insurance sector is projected to generate premium income of 333.15 billion yuan in 2024, while green bond issuance is expected to reach 681.43 billion yuan, 2.5 times that of 2020 [5] - The national carbon emissions trading market, launched in July 2021, covers over 60% of carbon emissions and has seen a cumulative trading volume of approximately 728 million tons by September 2025 [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a carbon market weekly report dated November 07, 2025, from the Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3] Group 2: Carbon Market Weekly Summary - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 10,525,810 tons and 487,117,084.12 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, they were 30,936,720 tons and 1,496,842,246.87 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,475,000 yuan [7] - In the first week of November, the comprehensive price had a high of 58.51 yuan/ton, a low of 51.54 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 57.79 yuan/ton, up 11.22% from the previous Friday. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 3,981,155 tons and 209,744,110.26 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, 5,154,502 tons and 248,501,748.01 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,894,850 yuan. The total trading volume and turnover were 9,235,657 tons and 463,140,708.27 yuan [7] - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining. The current price is around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the 2024 high. The new policy aims to solve the problem of enterprises' reluctance to sell. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule. The price may stabilize after the selling pressure eases in November [8] - According to the Fudan Carbon Index, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [8][9] Group 3: Market News - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that in September, the全社会 electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, up 4.5% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, up 4.6% year - on - year. The third - quarter electricity consumption was 2.9 trillion kWh, driven by high - temperature in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [10] - On October 24, it was announced that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, build a new energy system, and implement the dual - control system of carbon emission volume and intensity. It aims to reach about 4.5 billion tons of bulk solid waste utilization by 2030 and save over 150 million tons of standard coal in key industries, reducing about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - Recently, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market to mainly cover industrial emission industries by 2027, implement quota control and paid distribution, gradually tighten quotas, strengthen the synergy between the carbon market and industrial policies, and accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [10] Group 4: Market Data - There are figures about the national carbon market price trend, pilot carbon market price, power generation year - on - year growth rate, and new power generation equipment year - on - year growth rate, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [6][7][12]

Group 1 - The 9th "Future Investment Initiative" conference in Riyadh highlighted the accelerating cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries, driven by digital technology [4] - The conference attracted over 8,000 representatives globally and focused on themes of growth and innovation [4] - Lenovo announced plans to establish a regional headquarters in Riyadh, emphasizing the integration of AI across its business segments, which is expected to drive growth [4] Group 2 - Chinese technology company Galaxy General is advancing embodied intelligence and humanoid robots in retail and healthcare, showcasing their durability and replicability [4] - JD Logistics has established an integrated self-operated network in the Middle East since entering Saudi Arabia in 2021, enhancing logistics and supply chain connections [5] - The "Future Investment Initiative" conference serves as a vital platform for capital, technology, and industry ecosystems, facilitating collaboration opportunities [5] Group 3 - Major engineering projects are enhancing mutual trust between China and Middle Eastern partners, with Chinese firms positioning themselves as collaborative partners in regional development [6] - The focus on sustainable development and voluntary carbon markets is expected to deepen cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, contributing to climate action efforts [5][6] - The increasing attention from China towards the Middle East is seen as a significant factor in promoting economic diversification in the region [6]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for November 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buying price for CEA in November 2025 is 47.59 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 55.42 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 14.08% and the selling price index decreased by 8.59% [2] - The expected buying price for CCER in November 2025 is 59.67 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 68.17 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 63.92 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 13.52% and the selling price index decreased by 11.27% [2] GEC Price Indices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2024 is 2.94 CNY/unit, while for distributed projects it is 2.26 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 1.31 CNY/unit; all show a decline compared to October 2025 [3] - For 2025, the expected price for centralized projects is 4.24 CNY/unit, for distributed projects it is 3.65 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 3.81 CNY/unit, with price differences among types of green certificates widening [3] October Market Performance - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 CNY/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 CNY/ton; the market showed a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in October was 172.14 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 148.64 million tons, indicating active trading as the compliance period approaches [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, with the EU carbon market's average daily trading volume rising by 7.91% and the UK market by 34.43%, while the Korean market saw a slight decline of 1.06% [5] - Price movements varied across global markets, with the EU carbon market price increasing by 1.64%, while the UK and Korean markets experienced declines of 0.82% and 3.30%, respectively [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of October 23, the carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. The current carbon price level is equivalent to the opening price in 2021 and has declined by over 50% compared to the peak in 2024. The low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rules, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [7]. - The "十五五" period will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, construct a new energy system, and shift from the energy consumption dual - control system to the carbon emission dual - control system. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries, aiming to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - The carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton as of October 23, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. Since June this year, the carbon quota price has been falling, and the current price is similar to the 2021 opening price, down over 50% from the 2024 peak. The optimal carry - over rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but they need to apply before June 10, 2026. The current low carbon price is related to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises, and the price may stabilize after November [7]. - In October 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price of CEA is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market News - According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20, the GDP in the first three quarters of China was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The GDP in the first, second, and third quarters increased by 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [9]. - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that the total electricity consumption in September was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The electricity consumption in the third quarter was 2.9 trillion kWh, which was high due to high - temperature processes in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [9][10]. - On October 24, it was announced that during the "十五五" period, efforts will be made to develop non - fossil energy, promote the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. By 2030, the utilization of bulk solid waste is expected to reach about 4.5 billion tons. The carbon emission dual - control system will be implemented, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries [10]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data content is provided in the given text, only the names of the figures are mentioned, such as "Figure 3: Year - on - year growth rate of power generation (%)" and "Figure 4: Year - on - year growth rate of newly installed power generation equipment (%)" [13].

Core Insights - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference highlighted the transformative changes in global economic governance, emphasizing the significant role of carbon markets and carbon finance, particularly in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Economic Governance - Global economic governance is at a critical "crossroads," necessitating a restructuring of the existing framework due to the misalignment between old systems and current developments [2]. - The share of developing economies in global GDP is projected to rise from 25% in 2000 to 45% by 2024, shifting governance discourse towards a more balanced North-South dynamic [2]. - The deepening of South-South cooperation among developing countries facilitates consensus in sustainable development [2]. Group 2: Carbon Market Development - The global carbon market has seen significant progress, with 38 carbon markets operational, covering 23% of global greenhouse gas emissions [4]. - China's carbon market, initiated in 2021, has expanded to include approximately 3,500 enterprises, with a total quota of 8 billion tons, representing 53.33% of the global carbon market quota [4]. - The release of China's first central-level document on carbon market construction and the announcement of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) goals provide a clear development roadmap for the carbon market [4]. Group 3: Future of Carbon Finance - The growth of the carbon market lays a solid foundation for carbon finance innovation, which still has significant untapped potential [5]. - Establishing differentiated internal motivation mechanisms for high-emission enterprises and linking carbon performance to financing costs for small and medium enterprises is essential [5]. - The integration of AI and big data in carbon finance can enhance efficiency and reduce costs, exemplified by innovative practices that significantly lower resource input for banks [5]. Group 4: Carbon Finance Ecosystem - A comprehensive carbon finance ecosystem requires support from third-party professional institutions, data technology companies, and green finance certification bodies [6]. - The establishment of standards and methods for evaluating green low-carbon performance is crucial for advancing the ecosystem [6]. Group 5: Interaction Between Carbon Finance and Green Innovation - Carbon finance must clarify its value orientation towards "zero carbon" to drive innovation and investment in low-carbon technologies [7]. - The interaction between carbon finance and green technology is vital for overcoming challenges faced by enterprises in pursuing environmental sustainability [8]. Group 6: Future Directions for Carbon Finance - The next decade will focus on the internationalization of carbon finance, with significant potential in developing countries [11]. - Key development priorities include creating a unified core carbon market, enhancing market vitality through financial innovation, and strengthening international cooperation [11]. - New financial tools, such as RWA (Real World Assets), can link carbon assets to the market, providing new financing avenues for low-carbon technologies [12].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report name: Carbon Market Weekly Report [2] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different areas such as crude oil and fuel (Li Jie, CFA), PTA/MEG (Ren Junchi), industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon (Peng Haozhou), polyolefins (Peng Jinglin), and pulp (Liu Youran) [3] Group 3: Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In the third week of October, the national carbon market carbon quota price continued to decline. The weekly price was 53.99 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 7.23% [4] - The expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in October 2025 is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton [4] - The expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in December 2025 is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton [4] - The expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) in October 2025 is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - On September 24, 2025, at the China Carbon Market Conference, Deputy Minister Li Gao of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)", introducing the progress and achievements of the national carbon market since 2024. The Ministry will speed up the construction of a unified national carbon market, improve the system, expand the coverage, enhance market vitality, enrich trading varieties, and strengthen international cooperation [6] - Minister Huang Runqiu reported on China's work on climate change response, carbon peaking, and carbon neutrality. Although significant achievements have been made, challenges remain in green and low - carbon transformation. Some localities are still blindly launching "two high" (high - energy - consuming and high - polluting) projects, which is contrary to the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The carbon market is a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting green transformation in China, with significant growth and participation observed in recent years [1][3]. Market Overview - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, covering over 60% of China's carbon dioxide emissions, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The number of key emission units that have opened trading accounts has reached 1,277 as of August 2025, indicating an increase in market participants [3]. Market Changes and Opportunities - The expansion of the carbon market to include steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials has diversified market participants, enhancing trading opportunities and market development [3][5]. - The trading volume in the carbon market has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, with significant growth in transaction numbers and active participants [5]. Local Market Dynamics - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to play a supportive role in achieving local "dual carbon" goals while adapting to the national carbon market's expansion [6][7]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises, contributing to its trading activity [7]. Future Plans and Mechanisms - The Shanghai Environmental Energy Exchange is focusing on expanding industry coverage, researching paid allocation mechanisms, and enhancing market participant diversity [10][11]. - The transition to a "paid allocation + total control" model is anticipated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an emphasis on policy coordination to achieve national carbon reduction targets [12][13].

Core Insights - The construction of the carbon market is accelerating, with a maturing institutional framework [1][3] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - In two months, 13 new methodologies for the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER) have been released for public consultation, indicating a significant push in top-level design [2][3] - The rapid expansion of methodologies signifies that the core institutional system of the national voluntary carbon market is being improved, providing clearer policy expectations and a more stable trading environment [3] Group 2: Climate Governance Expansion - The newly released methodologies cover a wide range of areas, focusing on deep energy savings in public buildings, biomass cogeneration, and the recovery of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, reflecting a shift from single-point to multi-point climate governance [4] - China's new round of national contributions aims for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, indicating a broader scope of climate governance beyond just carbon emissions [4] Group 3: Valuation of Ecological Products - The CCER methodologies have quantified carbon sink benefits into tradable products, with cumulative trading volume exceeding 3.19 million tons and total transaction value surpassing 267 million yuan [5] - The inclusion of coastal salt marshes and seagrass beds in the methodologies fundamentally establishes a pricing mechanism for previously "priceless" ecological resources, facilitating the transformation of ecological assets into economic value [5] Group 4: Economic Incentives for Transitioning Industries - CCER provides crucial economic incentives for projects with significant environmental benefits, helping them overcome initial investment barriers and improve cash flow during transitional phases [6] - For instance, the CCER revenue can significantly enhance the cash flow of biomass power generation projects, supporting the industry's green transition [6] Group 5: International Influence and Standards - China's active participation in the international voluntary carbon market can alter the current dominance of Western countries in rule-making and standard-setting [7] - The release of methodologies in areas like geothermal energy and sulfur hexafluoride recovery positions China as a leader, potentially influencing global standards and enhancing its voice in international climate governance [7]