日本的稀土独立梦，一开始就像是一场高风险的国运豪赌。它赌的是中国在稀土领域的主导地位，认为总有一天会被打破。但13年过去了，回头看，这一策 略的结果并非成功，而是被印度的杀猪盘狠狠宰了，甚至连自己的一些技术进展也成了自打脸的证据。最后，他们才发现，自己从印度进口的所谓印度稀 土，实际上还是通过中国转手过来的。这不单纯是赌输了，简直是根本没有站对赌桌。 在2010年，中国因为钓鱼岛撞船事件对日本实施了稀土出口管制。当时，中国将对日本的稀土出口量从2009年的5万吨急剧降低至2011年的约3万吨，造成了 40%的供应缺口。这一举动让日本的制造业瞬间陷入困境。由于没有足够的稀土库存，丰田的生产线一度停工三个月，整个汽车产业链受到严重冲击，客户 投诉也不断。 就在这一时刻，日本才真正意识到卡脖子意味着什么。从那一年起，日本开始全力推进稀土突围计划，政府大力投入资金，试图减少对中国稀土的依赖，打 算实现去中国化。然而，这个计划最终在2025年6月被印度的一刀断供给彻底打断了。 为了突破中国的稀土控制，日本在过去13年里采取了很多行动。它与蒙古合作，向澳大利亚矿山投资，甚至在法国建立稀土回收基地，深海采矿的项目更是 烧钱 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of yttrium oxide (Y2O3) has surged dramatically, with global prices reaching approximately $126 per kilogram, marking an increase of nearly 1500% compared to the end of 2024, a historical high [1] - In Europe, yttrium oxide prices are around $270 per kilogram, reflecting a rise of over 4400% since the end of 2024 [1] - In China, yttrium oxide prices are approximately 49,000 yuan per ton, with an annual increase of about 16% to 28% [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for light rare earths is primarily driven by the explosive growth in sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power, coupled with supply constraints due to quotas and imports [2] - The penetration rate of permanent magnet synchronous motors in new energy vehicles has reached 95%, with significant demand for praseodymium and neodymium materials [2] - In October 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 980,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32%, driving an additional demand of over 2,000 tons of praseodymium [2] - The wind power sector is also experiencing a surge, with a planned addition of 25 million kilowatts of new capacity in Q4, a 45% increase from Q3 [2] - Emerging fields like humanoid robots are expected to further boost demand, with a projected 200% year-on-year increase in light rare earth demand [2] Group 3: Supply Constraints - China's strict control over rare earth quotas significantly impacts supply, with a total mining control indicator of 145,000 tons for 2025, a mere 5% increase year-on-year [4] - The supply of praseodymium is estimated at only 90,000 tons against a projected demand of 120,000 tons for the year [4] - Recent political instability in Myanmar has led to a 15% decrease in rare earth imports, further tightening supply [5] - As of October 2025, domestic rare earth industry inventory has decreased by 38%, with major companies having only about one month of production capacity left [5] Group 4: Impact on Companies - Upstream rare earth resource companies are experiencing significant profit increases, with companies like Shenghe Resources reporting a net profit growth of 748.07% in the first three quarters of 2025 [6] - Midstream processing companies face cost pressures due to rising raw material prices, with some smaller firms struggling to pass on costs, leading to reduced profit margins [6] - Downstream recycling companies are investing in technology and projects, with companies like GreeenMei achieving a 95.2% recovery rate in their recycling processes [7] - The recycling sector is expected to alleviate 15% of the rare earth supply pressure, with future projections indicating an increase to 25% [7]

（文章来源：新华社） 芒廷山口材料公司创立于2017年，是美国唯一一家掌握稀土全产业链的生产商，也是北美唯一一家大规 模开采和处理稀土矿的企业。公司在加利福尼亚州拥有全球第二大稀土矿芒廷山口，并在得克萨斯州沃 思堡设有加工厂，目前在美主要生产轻稀土产品。 今年7月，五角大楼罕见收购芒廷山口材料公司股份，成为该私营企业最大股东，并与其签署10年期协 议，包括产品最低限价等条款。 《金融时报》称，沙特为寻求经济多元化高度重视矿业。沙特阿拉伯矿业公司9月表示，正积极开发据 预估总值约2.5万亿美元的沙特矿产资源，并利用其国际投资部门"沙特马纳拉矿业公司"探寻海外机 遇。 美国最大稀土生产商芒廷山口材料公司19日宣布，已与美国战争部（即国防部）和沙特阿拉伯矿业公司 达成伙伴关系，计划在沙特建造稀土精炼厂。 据英国《金融时报》等媒体报道，精炼厂将处理沙特及其他地区的原材料，将生产的重稀土与轻稀土产 品提供给美沙两国的制造业和国防工业，同时面向盟国销售。 据报道，美国和沙特合建稀土厂，是沙特王储兼首相穆罕默德访美期间所达成的协议之一。芒廷山口材 料公司与美国政府将持有新合资企业49%的股份，沙特阿拉伯矿业公司控股比例"不 ...

智通财经APP获悉，MP Materials(MP.US)股价周三收盘大涨8.61%，此前高盛首次覆盖并给予"买入"评 级及77美元目标价。该行分析师布莱恩·李指出，该公司有望通过垂直整合成为北美最大稀土磁体供应 商，在制造商寻求供应链多元化的背景下，从控制全球90%-95%稀土精炼及磁体生产的中国企业手中夺 取份额。 此外，公司早前宣布与美国国防部及沙特国有矿业公司Maaden在沙特合资建设稀土精炼厂，该消息亦 推动当日股价上涨。 MP Materials的核心业务为钕镨氧化物，这是制造电子产品、电动汽车和国防系统永磁体的关键原料， 对美国制造业至关重要。李认为，借助与美国政府的合作加速下游扩张，MP Materials将在稀土供应链 中占据战略地位，实现收入与EBITDA显著增长，垂直整合将释放利润率上行空间。 ...

2025年11月20日盘中，稀土板块盘中强势上扬，截至10:19，中证稀土产业指数强势上涨1.63%，成分股 盛新锂能上涨9.99%，广晟有色上涨6.72%，格林美上涨4.10%，科力远，中钢天源等个股跟涨。 消息面上，11月19日国内轻稀土市场价格走势上涨，金属镨钕价格为67万元/吨，镨钕氧化物价格上涨 2500元/吨至54.25万元/吨，氧化钕价格上涨2500元/吨至58.75万元/吨，金属钕价格上涨5000元/吨至70万 元/吨，金属镨价格上涨5000元/吨至73万元/吨，氧化镨价格上涨2500元/吨至55.5万元/吨，国内轻稀土 价格走势上涨。 国投证券表示，今年7~9月磁材出口均同比正增长，未来国内外需求增长是趋势。我们认为更应该关注 稀土供给端的变化，白名单制度或年内落地，预计推动稀土价格新一轮上涨，北稀和包钢公告上调四季 度稀土精矿价格，看好后市价格上涨。 场外投资者还可以通过稀土ETF嘉实联接基金（011036）把握稀土投资机遇。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证稀土产业指数前十大权重股分别为北方稀土、卧龙电驱、领益智 造、中国稀土、厦门钨业、中国铝业、盛和资源、金风科技、包钢股份、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from internal "14th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external "fiscal + monetary" easing policies from major economies, particularly the US and Japan, leading to a rebound in valuations and performance by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence by 2026, supported by a complete domestic AI industry chain and an influx of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong [1] - The Hang Seng Index is currently seen as a valuation low point among major global markets, with an estimated equity risk premium (ERP) of 5.7% [1] - The expected net profit growth for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech in 2026 is 8.5% and 29.9%, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for earnings recovery [1][4] Group 2: Strategic Investment Directions - Five long-term investment directions are recommended: 1) Technology sector, including AI and consumer electronics; 2) Healthcare, particularly biotechnology; 3) Resource products benefiting from overseas inflation and de-dollarization; 4) Essential consumer goods expected to recover in valuation; 5) Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and high-level technological self-reliance, which is expected to support strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace [2] Group 3: Emerging Industries - The solid-state battery industry is anticipated to reach a market value of 1.2 trillion yuan from 2024 to 2030, marking a new wave of electrification innovation [3] - The brain-computer interface sector is gaining government attention, with new policies expected to address clinical challenges [3] - The bio-manufacturing market is projected to reach a trillion-level scale, driven by continuous application expansion [3] Group 4: Performance Expectations - The market expects the performance growth of Hong Kong stocks to bottom out in 2025, with revenue and profit growth projected to reach 5.5% and 9.2% in 2026, respectively [4] - The earnings sentiment for Hong Kong stocks has begun to warm, with upward adjustments in profit forecasts since July 25 [4][5] Group 5: Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks reached 1.26 trillion HKD from the beginning of the year to the end of October, becoming a core driver for the market [6] - The trend of passive management funds increasing their allocation to Hong Kong stocks is evident, with a significant rise in the proportion of passive funds in the Southbound Stock Connect [6] - Retail investors are expected to play a larger role in the market, with ETF inflows into Hong Kong stocks exceeding 270 billion HKD since June [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and further earnings revival by 2026, driven by a rebound in the fundamental outlook and significant valuation discounts [1] Long-term Investment Directions - Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] - Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] - Resource products benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization, including non-ferrous metals and rare earths [1] - Consumer staples sector, which is relatively stagnant and undervalued, is expected to see valuation recovery [1] - Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from the appreciation of the Renminbi [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and further earnings revival by 2026, driven by a rebound in the fundamental outlook and significant valuation discounts [1] Long-term Investment Directions - Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] - Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] - Resource products benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization, including non-ferrous metals and rare earths [1] - Essential consumer goods sector, which is relatively undervalued and expected to see valuation recovery as the domestic economy further recovers [1] - Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from the appreciation of the Renminbi [1]

或许是看到了高市早苗的下场，见识到了中国反击手段的强硬，最近，欧洲的外交场出现了一种微妙的 变化。 更关键的是，欧洲曾试图通过《关键原材料法案》推动本土开采，却因社区抵制、审批缓慢、成本高昂 而举步维艰。 有数据显示，欧洲矿业项目的平均审批时间比中国长20倍以上，且多数项目因环保争议搁浅。 芯片领域的情况同样严峻。 此前荷兰政府对安世半导体采取强制接管措施后，中国随即收紧相关材料出口许可，导致欧洲汽车行业 陷入恐慌。 德国企业警告称，若供应链进一步中断，部分车企可能面临停产。欧盟委员会内部文件显示，企业投诉 纷纷飞向布鲁塞尔，迫使外交系统不得不"降低调门"，优先稳住供应。 我们要清楚的是，语气放软不代表政策转向。尽管欧盟在外交言辞上放低了姿态，其实际政策却未见软 化。 据《南华早报》报道，近日，布鲁塞尔传出消息，欧盟悄悄要求下属官员调整对华发言基调，在公开谈 论中国时"调低音量"，避免刺激性措辞，以确保稀土和芯片等关键物资的谈判顺利推进。 结合近期中欧之间的摩擦，便能发现：欧洲的"温和"并非善意，而是被现实逼出的妥协。 以稀土为例，中国在全球稀土永磁体产能中占据绝对主导地位，欧洲的电动车、风电、军工产业几乎无 ...

根据协议，MP Materials与美国国防部将共同持有合资企业49%股权，而Maaden持股比例不低于51%。 值得注意的是，美国方面的全部出资将由国防部提供"无追索权融资"，而MP Materials将负责技术投 入，包括稀土分离、精炼工艺，以及全球供应和市场渠道方面的专业能力。 智通财经APP获悉，周三，MP Materials(MP.US)股价走高，截至发稿，该股涨超10%，报64.49美元。消 息面上，此前公司宣布与美国国防部及沙特国有矿业巨头Maaden在沙特共同成立一家合资企业，计划 在当地建设稀土精炼厂。MP Materials称，这一举措是"重塑全球稀土供应链格局的关键一步"。 MP Materials表示，公司还在与沙特方面讨论在当地支持或合作开展磁体制造业务，进一步完善下游产 业链。 ...