Group 1 - Copper prices fell significantly due to rising inventories and a stronger dollar, raising concerns about demand in the overall commodity market [1] - The most active copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 100,980 yuan per ton, down 3.76%, while the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) dropped by $51 or 0.39%, settling at $12,989 per ton [1] - LME copper inventories increased by 12,750 tons, reaching a total of 155,725 tons, the highest level since March 2025, while Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories rose to 133,004 tons, the highest since April 2025 [1] Group 2 - Other base metals also experienced declines, with Shanghai aluminum down 525 yuan or 2.2% to 23,385 yuan per ton, and Shanghai zinc falling 440 yuan or 1.77% to 24,395 yuan per ton [2] - The three-month aluminum price on the LME decreased by 1.48%, while three-month zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices also saw declines of 0.91%, 0.33%, 1.12%, and 4.71% respectively [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜表现强势 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜主力期价整体围绕 10.5 万一线震荡运行，日内下探至 10.4 万下方，沪铜持仓量小幅上升。从盘面来看，前期悲观情绪得 到释放，市场氛围有所回暖，尾盘白银拉升带动有色盘面普涨。产 业层面，SMM 报道，隔月 Contango 月差小幅走扩，进一步促使持货 商将部分货源转为仓单，限制现货流动性进一步收紧。部分冶炼厂 选择备货交割，叠加持货商惜售挺价情绪明显，市场中可交易现货 有限，将支撑现货 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，2月3日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘多数下跌，沪锡跌12.38%，沪镍跌2.83%，沪铝跌 2.12%，不锈钢跌1.81%，沪锌跌1.07%，沪铜跌1.01%，沪铅跌0.77%，氧化铝涨1.18%。 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: [Huabao Futures] Weekly Report on the Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain [1] - **Report Date**: February 2, 2026 - **Reporting Company**: Huabao Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Tin Ingot**: Fluctuations increase, and it is advisable to avoid participation in the short term. Later, focus on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will stabilize in a wide - range interval, and it is necessary to avoid risks of sharp fluctuations. Later, pay attention to policy implementation effects, marginal changes in supply and demand, inventory evolution trends, macro and regulatory risks, and cost - profit transmission [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - to - Week Market Review - **Tin Ingot**: Last week, the main tin ingot contract hit a new high and then sharply corrected. As of Monday morning this week, it hit the daily limit down. Tin ingot prices have been highly volatile recently, affected by both a fragile supply side and capital games. High prices have curbed downstream consumption, and demand is expected to weaken before the holiday [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market rose strongly last week. The main contract closed at 148,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18.36%. On the spot side, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 7.15% week - on - week to 170,900 yuan/ton. The price increase promoted upstream sales, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. When the futures price fell to the spot price range, downstream inquiries increased, driving up the spot price [27]. 3.2 02 Variety Data 3.2.1 Tin Ingot - **Refined Tin - Production and Capacity Utilization**: In the week of January 30, the combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.336 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0022 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1055 million tons. The combined capacity utilization rate was 69.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 21.77% [12]. - **Tin Ingot - Inventory**: In the week of January 30, the total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 10,468 tons, a week - on - week increase of 748 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3,430 tons. The social inventory in different regions of China was 10,843 tons, a week - on - week increase of 165 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,574 tons [15]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: The processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained flat week - on - week in the week of January 30, with year - on - year increases of 500 yuan/ton [17]. - **Tin Ore - Import Profit and Loss**: In the week of January 30, the import profit and loss level was 25,619.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,570.44 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 11,069.8 yuan/ton [18]. - **Spot - Average Price**: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 8,350 yuan/ton week - on - week in the week of January 30, with year - on - year increases of 179,350 yuan/ton [22]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - **Supply - Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the total weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 49.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 42.82%. The capacity utilization rates of different production methods showed varying trends [32]. - **Supply - Production**: The total weekly production of lithium carbonate last week was 21,569 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92% (648 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 72.66%. Except for the increase in the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes, the production of other raw material routes decreased week - on - week [33]. - **Demand - Cathode Materials**: The cathode material structure was differentiated. The weekly inventory of ternary precursor plants increased, the production of ternary materials decreased, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased [40]. - **Demand - Terminal Market**: The total demand was under pressure, but energy storage performed strongly with healthy inventory reduction. The production of power cells decreased slightly, and the production and sales of energy storage cells increased significantly [45]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the total sample inventory decreased. There were signs of inventory transfer from upstream to downstream [50]. - **Cost and Profit - Raw Material Market**: The prices of lithium raw materials such as spodumene, lepidolite, and amblygonite all increased last week [53].

2月2日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜周一下挫，因投资者凯文·沃什被提名为美联储下任主 席令投资者转入避险模式，同时在中国农历新年假期临近之际需求趋弱。 现货金跌至每盎司4,500美元水平，此前周四曾创下接近5,600美元的历史新高。 美元指数企稳，巩固沃什被提名后录得的涨幅。美元走强通常打压以美元计价的大宗商品，使其对其他 货币持有者的吸引力下降。 与此同时，在工业金属整体承压之际，铜价亦受到春节前需求前景转弱拖累。 LME基本金属全线下跌，三个月期铝下跌3.40%至每吨3,037美元。三个月期锌下跌3.37%，至每吨 3,287.50美元。三个月期铅下跌1.77%，至每吨1,973.50美元。三个月期镍下跌5.01%，至每吨17,055美 元。 沪锌主力合约下跌6.86%至每吨24,515元。沪铅主力合约下跌2.31%，报每吨16,680元。 截至北京时间15:59，LME三个月期铜下跌3.40%，报每吨12,710.50美元，自历史高点14,527.50美元回 落。 上海期货交易所主力3月期铜合约触及跌停板，下跌9%，报每吨98,580元。 沪铝、沪镍以及沪锡亦跌停。沪铝下跌9%至每吨23,03 ...

Group 1 - LME metal futures experienced a widespread decline, with significant drops across various metals [1] - Copper closed at $13,070.5, down $634.5, representing a 4.63% decrease [1] - Aluminum reported a closing price of $3,135.5, falling by $98, which is a 3.03% drop [1] - Zinc closed at $3,370, down $83, reflecting a 2.40% decrease [1] - Lead ended at $1,995, down $16, marking a 0.80% decline [1] - Tin saw a dramatic fall, closing at $50,600, down $3,900, which is a 7.16% drop [1] - Nickel closed at $17,555, down $965, indicating a 5.21% decrease [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so it's advisable to participate with caution. In the medium - to - long - term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of the supply end and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Copper - In the short term, if the CL premium reverses, COMEX copper inventory may flow back to non - US regions, alleviating supply pressure there; if it remains narrow, copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range with limited upward potential, and if it widens, copper prices may maintain a relatively strong trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the price bottom is expected to rise gradually under the constraint of capital expenditure on the supply side, but current prices are suppressing downstream demand, and price fluctuations may intensify [3]. Zinc - The weakening of the US dollar index supports zinc prices. The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, and the supply pressure of refined zinc is easing. The demand side has shown a significant recovery in the processing industry's operating rate after the price correction, and the terminal orders are stable. The global zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. Short - term prices have limited downside space, and it is recommended to focus on the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory, with the main contract supported at around 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [5]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has risen following commodities like coking coal. In January, both supply and demand have weakened slightly, with a slight inventory build - up. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction situation of industrial silicon. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, with the upper limit pressured by the opening of the arbitrage window and the lower limit supported by costs [7]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, but downstream components and battery cells are still reducing production despite price increases and increased exports due to weak domestic demand and the approaching Spring Festival. The demand for polysilicon is low, and the price is under pressure. In February, there is still pressure to reduce production. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the production reduction process and downstream demand recovery [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is affected by the overall risk - preference recovery in the commodity market and supply - contraction expectations, but the high - inventory pressure in the domestic spot market still suppresses prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum market has shown a high - level breakthrough, but the domestic fundamentals are under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, aluminum prices are expected to be strong and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of a high - level correction in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has followed the rise in aluminum prices but lacks financial attributes and has poor downstream acceptance. The cost is the main driving factor, and the fundamentals show a typical seasonal supply - and - demand weakness. It is expected that the ADC12 price will continue to oscillate in the high - level range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton in the short term [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is supported by the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector and the smelters' hoarding mentality due to the expected tight supply of raw materials. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is driven by the strong commodity sentiment and the improvement in fundamentals due to steel - mill production cuts. In the short term, it is expected to adjust in a strong - oscillation pattern, with the main contract in the range of 14,200 - 15,200 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the news from the ore end and the dynamics of steel mills [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market has shown a weak adjustment. Although the fundamentals show certain inventory - reduction resilience during the off - season, which supports prices, there may be a short - term decline adjustment. It is recommended to operate cautiously in the range of 155,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose 0.46% to 438,600 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin open discount dropped 100% to 0 yuan/ton [2]. - The import loss of tin increased 88.73% to - 10,909.52 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.88 [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the import of tin ore increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, and the production of SMM refined tin decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons [2]. - The import of refined tin increased 29.54% to 1,548 tons, and the export increased 41.84% to 2,763 tons [2]. Inventory - SHEF inventory increased 1.79% to 9,720 tons, and social inventory increased 4.94% to 10,678 tons [2]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 2.48% to 104,185 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased 70 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [3]. - The import loss of copper decreased to - 106 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.77 [3]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and the import decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons [3]. Inventory - The domestic social inventory of copper decreased 2.24% to 32.28 million tons, and the SHFE inventory increased 5.82% to 22.59 million tons [3]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.20% to 25,290 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. - The import loss of zinc increased to - 2,443 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased slightly to 7.48 [5]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and the import decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [5]. Inventory - The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased 1.35% to 11.72 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.57% to 11 million tons [5]. Industrial Silicon Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 33.67% to 325 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons [7]. Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased 0.36% to 55.40 million tons, and the warehouse - receipt inventory increased 2.89% to 6.83 million tons [7]. Polysilicon Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type silicon wafers of 210mm decreased 6.13% to 1.53 yuan/piece [8]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of polysilicon increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and the import increased 77.50% to 0.19 million tons [8]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased 0.91% to 33.30 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased 1.90% to 27.29GW [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.47% to 24,860 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased 20 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina increased 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and the production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased 3.97% to 378.10 million tons [9]. Inventory - The Chinese electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased 5.25% to 78.20 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased 0.45% to 49.8 million tons [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 1.66% to 24,550 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased 10.48% to 2,719 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [11]. Inventory - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 2.11% to 4.64 million tons, and the daily inventory in Foshan increased 0.33% to 30,343 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.30% to 148,000 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 6.82% to 7,050 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese refined nickel increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and the import increased 84.63% to 23,394 tons [12]. Inventory - SHFE inventory increased 5.43% to 50,794 tons, and social inventory increased 4.38% to 66,294 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased 58.54% to 82 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel decreased 26.72% to 131.59 million tons, and the import increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [14]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 0.82% to 45.77 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse - receipt inventory increased 9.90% to 4.36 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.33% to 168,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.37% to 164,500 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and the demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [17]. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [17].

沪铜期货主力合约涨超6%，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜涨超10.32%，报14437.5美元/吨；COMEX铜期货涨9.45%，报6.485美分/磅。 伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铅涨1.96%，报2056.5美元/吨；伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期锌涨5.90%，报3562.5美元/吨；伦敦金属交易所 (LME)三个月期锡涨5.11%，报58814.0美元/吨；伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期镍涨4.24%，报19045.0美元/吨。 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 | ( 日 | | | SHFE自银 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | AG.SHF | | | | | | 32161 | 昨结 | | 29735 总手 | | 19.84万 | 万得 | | | | | | | | | 图 | | | +2426 | +8.16% 开盘 | | 31145 现手 | | 7 | | | | 最高价 | 32382 寺 の | | 28.48万 | 外 盘 | | 9.92万 | | | 最低价 | 30900 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant increases in various metal futures, indicating a bullish trend in the commodities market, particularly for silver and copper [1] Group 1: Silver and Copper Futures - The main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 8.32%, reaching a record high of 32,210 yuan per kilogram [1] - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 6.18%, priced at 113,280 yuan per ton [1] - The three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged by 10.32%, now at 14,437.5 USD per ton [1] - COMEX copper futures rose by 9.45%, reaching 6.485 cents per pound [1] Group 2: Other Metal Futures - The three-month lead futures on the LME increased by 1.96%, priced at 2,056.5 USD per ton [1] - The three-month zinc futures on the LME rose by 5.90%, now at 3,562.5 USD per ton [1] - The three-month tin futures on the LME increased by 5.11%, reaching 58,814.0 USD per ton [1] - The three-month nickel futures on the LME rose by 4.24%, now priced at 19,045.0 USD per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The metal sector on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a significant rally on January 29, 2026, driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic policies, geopolitical dynamics, supply-demand balance, capital flows, and inter-commodity linkages. Group 1: Core Driving Factors - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a dovish stance and reinforcing expectations for rate cuts in the first half of 2026. The US dollar index fell to 96.2, a near four-year low, reducing overseas procurement costs for metals and attracting global capital into the commodity market [1]. - **Domestic Growth Policies**: Continued domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, such as the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and consumption stimulation during the Spring Festival, further boosted metal demand expectations [2]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Easing concerns over supply chain disruptions due to improved conditions in resource-rich areas, although geopolitical uncertainties remain. Silver, with its dual attributes of finance and safe-haven, became a preferred choice for capital allocation [3]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: A "tight balance" in supply and demand was noted, with supply constraints in tin, nickel, and lead due to environmental policies and mining difficulties, while demand surged from sectors like new energy and construction [4][5]. - **Capital Flows**: Increased risk appetite led to significant capital inflows into the commodity market, with metals showing heightened trading activity. The reversal of previously accumulated pessimism quickly drove prices up [7]. Group 2: Price Movements and Commodity Performance - **Price Increases**: Major metals saw substantial price increases, with copper rising by 6,490 yuan (+6.35%), aluminum by 765 yuan (+3.08%), and silver by 1,706 yuan (+5.99%). Gold also saw a notable increase of 87.14 yuan (+7.53%) [1]. - **Commodity Linkages**: Leading commodities like copper and aluminum initiated the rally, boosting market sentiment. Copper reached a new high of 108,000 yuan/ton, while aluminum followed suit due to dual demand from new energy and infrastructure [8]. - **Differentiated Performance**: Various metals exhibited different price responses based on their supply-demand characteristics and market attributes, with tin and nickel showing strong rebounds due to specific supply constraints and demand from new energy applications [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - **Short-term Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain strong fluctuations leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by ongoing stocking activities and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Copper may challenge the 109,000 yuan/ton mark, while aluminum is monitored around the 26,000 yuan/ton resistance level [10]. - **Long-term Perspective**: Structural demand from industries such as new energy and AI computing is anticipated to reshape the market, with copper, aluminum, and tin potentially entering a "super cycle." However, caution is advised regarding potential risks from US government shutdowns and disappointing earnings from tech giants [10].