Group 1 - LME metal futures show mixed performance influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - China's imports of aluminum ore have significantly increased, while exports of unwrought copper have declined, indicating a shift in supply and demand dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in London base metal prices amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, while Citigroup remains bullish on copper prices, raising questions about the potential shift in market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Trends - London base metal prices are experiencing a widespread decline due to geopolitical tensions [1] - Citigroup's bullish outlook on copper prices suggests a potential divergence in market sentiment regarding copper compared to other base metals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The article raises questions about whether the supply and demand landscape for base metals is truly changing in light of current events [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a sell-off in risk assets, resulting in a stronger US dollar and a decline in most base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 13, LME three-month copper fell by $57 or 0.59%, closing at $9,645 per ton, with an intraday low of $9,532, marking the weakest level since June 3 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down $14.50 or 0.58% to $2,503.00, three-month zinc down $19.50 or 0.74% to $2,623.00, and three-month lead down $6.00 or 0.30% to $1,990.50 [2][6]. - The COMEX copper premium over LME copper reached $976 per ton [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The strong US dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, contributing to the market's risk reduction in copper and aluminum [3]. - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that the current events have diminished the likelihood of prices moving upward, suggesting that price declines may attract bargain hunters [3][5]. - The majority of selling pressure is attributed to commodity trading advisors (CTA) investment funds [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Insights - In contrast to the LME, Shanghai aluminum has seen a third consecutive day of gains, closing at 20,440 yuan per ton, up 0.49%, supported by declining inventories [7]. - As of the week ending June 13, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventories fell to 110,001 tons, the lowest since February 2024, having decreased by 54% since late March [7].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 点评 12 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 33585 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.39%，持 仓增仓 1499 手至 61698 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 36000 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36000 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2415 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7455 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.27%，持仓减仓 25532 手至 12.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 120 元/吨。西南丰水电价全面下调，叠加硅煤和电极不断下移， 工业硅成本重心持续回调，硅厂丰水季开工水平压产到极限，需求端变量 不多，工业硅超跌修复结束，回归弱势震荡。新一轮签单落地，量级有限 且现货交易角度引导低品相对高品更抗跌。多晶硅需求坍塌压力下，边际 累库压力加剧，多晶硅延续回调。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in China's futures market, providing essential risk management tools for the non-ferrous metal industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Launch - Casting aluminum alloy futures and options were listed on June 10, 2023, with futures trading starting at 9 AM and options at 9 PM [1]. - This is the first recycled metal product in China's futures market, aimed at enhancing the risk management product lineup for the non-ferrous metal industry [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The casting aluminum alloy is a primary method for recycling waste aluminum, contributing significantly to energy conservation and emission reduction [1]. - According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the production of casting aluminum alloy in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024, indicating a growing demand for effective price risk management tools due to increasing price volatility of raw materials like waste aluminum [1]. Group 3: Trading Performance - As of June 10, 2023, by 3 PM, the trading volume of casting aluminum alloy futures exceeded 57,300 contracts, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts and a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan [3]. Group 4: Industry Leadership - The Chairman of the Licheng Sihua Light Alloy Group emphasized the need for a unified pricing mechanism in the industry, as the prices of raw materials have increasingly diverged from aluminum prices, complicating hedging efforts [1]. - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures is expected to provide richer risk management tools, helping companies better lock in prices and enhance their competitiveness [1]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The Chairman of the Shanghai Futures Exchange noted that the introduction of these futures and options will further support the high-quality development of China's aluminum industry, enhancing operational efficiency and ecological sustainability [2].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first recycled metal futures product, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant step in enhancing risk management tools for China's non-ferrous metal industry [1][3]. Industry Overview - China has established a complete industrial chain for aluminum, from bauxite to recycled aluminum, becoming the world's largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys [3]. - The demand for casting aluminum alloys is increasing, particularly driven by the growth of the electric vehicle sector, highlighting the strong need for price risk management among related enterprises [3][4]. Product Details - The first batch of casting aluminum alloy futures includes seven contracts (AD2511, AD2512, AD2601, AD2602, AD2603, AD2604, AD2605) with a listing benchmark price of 18,365 yuan per ton [1]. - On the first trading day, the market saw an overall increase, with the nearest month contract (AD2511) rising over 5% at one point [1]. Market Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks, thereby supporting stable operations and enhancing the influence of "China prices" in the aluminum industry [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has been actively developing aluminum-related futures and options since 2020, which has significantly contributed to the high-quality development of China's aluminum industry [4]. Future Outlook - The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to continue enhancing market cultivation efforts and work with market participants to maximize the functionality of casting aluminum alloy futures and options, thereby improving the futures market's ability to serve the high-quality development of the aluminum industry [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 现货价格维稳，关注宏观情绪影响 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-05日沪镍主力合约2507开于122200元/吨，收于121570元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.43%，当日成交量 为102375手，持仓量为85713手。 沪镍主力合约2507全天偏弱震荡，日线收小阴线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有所减少，持仓量有小幅 增加。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积在缓慢缩窄，且开始出现红柱面积，短周期内或许下跌趋势接近 尾声，60分钟线在5月26日的122000附近出现底背离现象，但端午节前的大幅下探击穿底背离的支撑位，关注上方 122000-123000短期一线压力位置，下方关注120000整数关口附近短线支撑位置。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价 较上个交易日下调375元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的下调。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，盘面虽有反弹 迹象，但市场观望态度居多，今天精炼镍现货成交整体表现一般，升贴水对比上个交易日有小幅下调，升贴水近 期处于相对平稳的态势。其中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2450元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至350元 ...

Core Insights - Copper prices have increased amid escalating trade tensions, raising questions about the supply-demand expectations and price trends in the metal market [1] Group 1 - The rise in copper prices is attributed to heightened trade tensions, which have implications for the overall metal market [1] - The market is currently assessing how supply and demand dynamics will evolve in response to these trade issues [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the potential impact of these developments on future price movements in the metal sector [1]

LME金属期货基本收涨，LME期铜收涨110美元，报9610美元/吨。LME期铝收涨8美元，报2464美元/ 吨。LME期锌收涨4美元，报2702美元/吨。LME期铅收涨21美元，报1991美元/吨。LME期镍收涨100美 元，报15594美元/吨。LME期锡收涨441美元，报32819美元/吨。LME期钴收平，报33700美元/吨。 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 点评 21 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 35860 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.93%，持 仓增仓 2952 手至 73488 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 640 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7865 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.75%，持仓 增仓 19275 手至 19.28 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9310 元/吨，较上一 交易日下调 102 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8100 元/吨，现货升水 扩至 205 元/吨。新疆大厂增产引发市场悲观预期，需求缺乏反转驱动叠 加期货持续增仓下压，可延续防御性空头策为主。多晶硅存在近端交割短 缺和需求急速流失的结构性矛盾。挤仓压力结束后基本面转弱逻辑再度回 归，主力对标交割基准价，短期大涨无力，可反弹布空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | | 2025/5/20 | 20 ...