张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 2025 年 9 月 19 日 股票股指期权：市场震荡，ETF 期权临近到 期，期限波动率差扩大。 | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当月 | 当月基差 | 次月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 2909.74 | -3.08 | 57.24 | -17.62 | 2915.73 | 5.99 | 2924.47 | 14.72 | | 沪深300指数 | 4501.92 | 3.81 | 225.04 | -84.82 | 4491.27 | -10.65 | 4492.47 | -9.45 | | 中证1000指数 | 7438.19 | -38.21 | 295.90 | -102.70 | 7354.67 | -83.52 | 729 ...

Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - **Stock Index Futures**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [7] - **Stock Index Options**: Oscillating [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [8] Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The technology sector has a short - term advantage. Short - term adjustments are mainly due to capital reallocation, while the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the possibility of configuring IM long positions, as technology stocks have a comparative advantage [1][7] - **Stock Index Options**: Trading is driven by intraday reversals. It is recommended to use covered strategies and closely monitor volatility changes. When volatility rises abnormally, the selling side of options can temporarily exit the market [2][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. In the short term, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is supportive for the short - end, while the long - end yield of bonds is still affected by risk appetite and policy expectations. Short - term attention can be paid to long - end arbitrage opportunities and the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [3][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The market first rose and then declined. The STAR Market once soared, and the technology sector continued to attract capital. However, the loss - making effect in the afternoon increased, and value stocks led the decline [1][7] - **Key Phenomena**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, commodities were generally weak, and the slightly hawkish stance boosted the US dollar, putting pressure on commodities and value stocks. Brokerages and stock - trading software were sluggish, and funds avoided areas with concentrated chips. The proportion of stocks outperforming the Wind All - A Index decreased, indicating that funds were flowing into relatively crowded areas, causing downward pressure on weak stocks [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the options market was 21.04 billion yuan, a 62.60% increase from the previous trading day, driven by intraday reversals [2][7] - **Market Characteristics**: The positive delta exposure of sellers decreased, and there were signs of a slight rebound in the skewness index and a significant increase in the ratio PCR. The implied volatility of some products decreased significantly at the end of the session, presumably due to the impact of intraday put - buying profit - taking [2][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Use covered strategies [8] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with a larger increase at the long - end [3][8] - **Capital Situation**: The central bank's net injection of 195 billion yuan did not ease the tight capital situation in the inter - bank market. The DR001 weighted average interest rate rose above 1.5%, which was negative for the short - end of the bond market. The decline in the equity market had limited impact on boosting the bond market sentiment, and the long - end yield rose more [3][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a cautiously oscillating trend strategy. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on long - end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [9] 2. Economic Calendar - The report provides the economic data of different regions from September 15 to September 19, 2025, including China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, the eurozone's economic sentiment index, the US retail sales, import price index, federal funds rate, and Japan's CPI [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot median shows that there is still room for a 50bp interest - rate cut within the year. The Bank of England maintained its policy interest rate unchanged in September and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, warning of the risk of a wage - price spiral [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [12][16][28]

| 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当月 | | 次月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | 当月基差 | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 2912.83 | -39.95 | 74.86 | 18.19 | 2908.93 | -3.89 | 2912.20 | -0.63 | | 沪深300指数 | 4498.11 | -52.91 | 309.86 | 74.14 | 4484.13 | -13.98 | 4473.80 | -24.31 | | 中证1000指数 | 7476.40 | -78.41 | 398.60 | 96.89 | 7449.93 | -26.47 | 7366.20 | -110.20 | | 上证50ETF | 3.048 | -0.040 | 13.05 | 7.25 | 3.043 | -0.005 | 3.045 | -0.003 | | 华泰柏瑞3 0 0 E T F | 4.5 ...

他提到，亚洲在全球衍生产品市场中一直备受瞩目，其所占的市场份额正不断攀升，增长持续亮眼：根 据美国期货业协会的数据，亚洲在全球衍生产品市场的份额已由2021年的49%急升至2024年的 82%，三 年间合约成交量激增4.5倍至1692亿张。相比之下，其他两个主要地区的市场份额于同期有所下滑。亚 洲市场的表现优于其他地区的因素众多，其中包括印度等一些新兴市场于近年高速发展，以及投资者以 衍生产品作对冲的需求日渐殷切。 梁仲贤还表示，作为首个针对衍生产品的互联互通机制，互换通的推出具有里程碑意义。随着海外投资 者对内地债券市场的投资稳步增加，于2023年5月开通的互换通利便投资者参与在岸人民币利率互换市 场。互换通提供了一个崭新渠道，让投资者可以在香港对冲内地债券持仓的风险。 智通财经APP获悉，9月17日，香港证监会市场监察部执行董事梁仲贤先生在2025年期货期权世界 (FOW)Trading Asia会议上发表主题演说时称，经历数十载的蓬勃发展，香港的衍生产品市场不仅已成 为本地金融体系的重要组成部分，更是亚洲市场的主要增长来源。值得注意的是，香港已跻身亚洲最大 的场外衍生产品市场之列，特别是在人民币外汇和利 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-18 股市温和上⾏，债市曲线⾛平 股指期货：温和上⾏ 股指期权：情绪再次⾛强 国债期货：债市曲线⾛平 股指期货方面，温和上行。昨日早盘盘面虽有波折，但全天呈现温和 上扬走势，其中创业板、科创50、中证1000相对强势，成长较价值占优， 微盘走势偏弱，上涨个股与下跌个股数量相近。短期趋势无忧，市场更在 意结构配置情况。从本轮资金流的状态来看，增量资金主要依托于三类资 金，其一是杠杆资金，融资余额规模持续新高，其二是中长期机构资金， 近期大型科技股以及港股互联网股频繁异动显现出资金加仓及布局的趋 势，其三是量化类资金，CTA以及指增类产品均对股票市场趋势形成正向 支撑作用。故从配置上，双创以及小微盘可能是共性方向，继续关注IM多 单配置。 股指期权方面，情绪再次走强。昨日标的市场全线上涨，双创及中小 盘继续领衔，期权市场成交额129.39亿元，相比前一交易日回升25.89%， 前一日提到买权主导的行情有所延续，且从成交结构来看，认购期权占比 有所回升，情绪再次走强。其他情绪指标方面，持仓量PCR在普涨行情中 维持平稳 ...

2025 年 9 月 17 日 股票股指期权：上行升波，隐波升高至中高分 位，可考虑逢低建仓买权保护。 张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 资料来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 金融衍生品研究 金 融 衍 生 品 研 究 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当月 | | 次月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | 当月基差 | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 2952.78 | 4.96 | 56.67 | -0.97 | 2957.07 | 4.29 | 2958.00 | 5.22 | | 沪深300指数 | 4551.02 | 27.69 | 235.72 | -13.55 | 4553.33 | 2.31 | 4545.67 | -5.36 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-17 股市盘⾯韧性⾜，债市情绪回暖 股指期货：盘⾯具有韧性 股指期权：短期博弈扰动，中期备兑应对 国债期货：债市情绪回暖 股指期货方面，盘面具有韧性。昨日盘面一度出现波折，但伴随午后 反攻，主要宽基指数均收红，行业方面，计算机、纺服、汽车等领涨，银 行、保险资金撤离，市值因子表现更为显著，全天呈现小市值占优大市值 偏弱的特征，同时量能维持在2.3万亿，近日有量缩特征。国庆之前维持 积极配置的看法，同时风格配置偏向成长领域。尽管8月金融数据表现不 一，但呈现出两个特征，其一，居民存款搬家正在提速，居民存款流入非 银存款，其二，M1M2剪刀差上行，隐含化债之后企业资金活化加速，对应 于信用环境改善，其三，消费、通胀暂难提升，这一方面催生政策提速预 期，另一方面强化资金流入科技领域。短线情绪偏强且具有韧性，继续配 置IM多单。 股指期权方面，短期博弈扰动，中期备兑应对。昨日期权市场成交额 102.78亿元，相比前一交易日回升15.46%，推测买权博弈占主导，原因有 二：其一是当前品种间分化相对大，市场博弈点较多；其二是 ...

人民财讯9月17日电，9月17日，香港特区行政长官李家超在立法会发表2025年《施政报告》。李家超表 示，香港将继续与内地相关机构商讨落实在港推出离岸国债期货，扩充互换通下利率衍生品种类，并推 动场外衍生工具的发展，以及与内地适时推出跨境人民币回购业务。香港证监会、金管局及港交所将增 加市场接触，鼓励更多企业在港发债，使更多环球资金参与香港债券市场。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures and treasury bond futures), precious metals, and multiple commodity futures (like non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products). It assesses market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the stock index futures market, the technology sector has regained strength, and there is sector rotation of funds; in the precious metals market, the expectation of monetary easing is rising before the Fed's decision, driving up the prices of gold and silver; in the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][8][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the major indices opened higher and then retreated. The stock market showed a pattern of sector rotation. The technology sector was strong, and the financial sector adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. The main contracts IF2509 and IH2509 fell, while IC2509 and IM2509 rose. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news, such as Sino - US economic and trade talks and the appointment of a new Fed governor. The current basis of the main contracts has been rapidly repaired. It is recommended to consider a double - buy strategy if the volatility decreases [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the money market was in a state of convergence. Although the money market was tight during the tax period, the bond market showed a recovery due to the increased allocation value and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the money market and the central bank's operations [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of monetary easing continued to rise, and the US dollar index fell to a new low for the year. Gold prices reached a new high and then retreated, while silver prices fell due to the correction in the non - ferrous metal sector. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [7][8][9]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is focused on the FOMC meeting. The spot price has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream demand. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the output of refined copper is expected to decline in September. The inventory shows a pattern of de - stocking in LME and stocking in the domestic market. It is expected that the copper price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [10][12][13]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply is increasing. Although the futures price has rebounded, the market is still in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. It is expected that the main contract will oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term, and it is advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price is stable. The output of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the process of recovery. The inventory shows a pattern of repeated changes. It is expected that the aluminum price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The output of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to increase in September. The demand is gradually recovering. The inventory is in the process of accumulation. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is in the process of recovery. The domestic inventory is accumulating, while the LME inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the zinc price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the price is at a high level. The spot price is high, and the trading is light. The import of tin ore has decreased, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the tin price will be range - bound at a high level, and the main contract is expected to trade between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [26][27][28]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is improving, and the price is strongly range - bound. The output of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory is increasing. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [29][30][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is range - bound and slightly weak. The cost is supported, but the demand has not fully recovered. The inventory is decreasing slowly. It is expected that the price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is positive, and the price is strongly range - bound. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel rose due to the expected contraction in the coal supply. The spot price of rebar increased more than that of hot - rolled coil, and the spread between them narrowed. The supply of steel is at a high level, and the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The inventory is expected to rise. It is recommended to try short - term long positions, with the upper resistance level of rebar at 3350 yuan and that of hot - rolled coil at 3500 yuan [40][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is strongly range - bound. The global shipment of iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the increase in steel production and the need for replenishment. The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal is expected to rebound. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing due to the increase in steel production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long coking coal and short coke [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is expected to rebound. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the third - round cut is difficult. The supply of coke is increasing, and the demand is supported by the increase in steel production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long coking coal and short coke [51][55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The price of soybean meal has stabilized. The US soybean export inspection volume has increased, and the Brazilian new soybean planting has started. The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the 01 contract will trade between 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton [57][58][59]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of live pigs is oscillating weakly. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is slowly recovering. The profit of pig farming has decreased. It is expected that the price will continue to bottom - out [60][61]. - **Corn**: The price of corn is under pressure. The new - season corn in the Northeast is slow to be listed, and the supply in the North China region has increased. The demand is mainly for replenishment. It is expected that the price will be range - bound and weak in the short and medium terms [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar has rebounded from an oversold level, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating. The supply of raw sugar is in surplus, and the domestic sugar inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to short on rallies [64].

证券之星消息，9月15日，钢铁ETF（515210）融资买入1042.69万元，融资偿还944.87万元，融资净买 入97.82万元，融资余额3977.95万元，近3个交易日已连续净买入累计457.5万元，近20个交易日中有11 个交易日出现融资净买入。 | 交易日 | 融资净买入(元) | 融资余额(元) | 占流通市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-15 | 97.82万 | 3977.95万 | | | 2025-09-12 | 336.80万 | 3880.13万 | | | 2025-09-11 | 22.88万 | 3543.32万 | | | 2025-09-10 | 85.57万 | 3520.44万 | | | 2025-09-09 | -342.64万 | 3434.87万 | | | 交易日 | 两融余额(元) | 余额变动(元) | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-15 | 4119.95万 | 95.12万 | 2.36% | | 2025-09-12 | 4024.82万 | 33 ...