【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：情绪释放，盘面反弹 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日低开高走，收盘上涨近 3%。消息面上，今日中国有色金属工业协会举行 2025 年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会，会上提到要完善铜资源储备体系建设， 一方面扩大国家铜战略储备规模，另一方面探索进行商业储备机制，通过财政贴息等方 式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备，市场有信息说已叫停部分铜冶炼项目，受消息面刺 激及外盘贵金属的止跌反弹，今日铜价上行。基本面来看， 1 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量为 117.93 万吨，环比增加 0.12 万吨，升幅为 0.10%，同比上升 16.32%。SMM 调研 2 月无冶 炼厂进行检修，个别冶炼厂 1 月底检修结束，2 月产量仍然受到影响，预计产量环比减 少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同比上升 8.06%。1 月份高位铜价抑制铜需求，下游多刚 需采购为主，终端新能源市场因购置税影响而表现不佳，其他传统行业及电力行业仍显 韧性。综合来看，短期内有色金属及贵金属盘面出现大涨大跌极端行情，美联储主席的 新人选提名影响美元走势而造成铜价的大幅下挫，市场出现恐慌性 ...

沪铜午后快速拉升，目前主力合约涨幅在2%附近。有色工业协会表示将配合有关部门严控新增矿铜冶炼项目，还将完善铜资源储备体系建设，提振铜价走 强。 （文华综合） ...

盘面异动：今天午后增仓上行，短期内沪铜主力合约可关注10万整数关口附近支撑，以及近期10.5-10.6 万位置附近的突破情况。 风险提示：有色板块近期受宏观情绪及风控措施扰动较大，短期需注意高波动风险。中长期可关注需求 向好预期逻辑对价格的支撑情况。 本内容仅用于学习交流，不构成投资建议。接收本文不代表国泰君安期货与读者建立任何业务关系。本 公司不对信息的准确性、完整性和可靠性提供保证，投资者须自行承担风险。本文观点仅为作者个人分 析，不代表公司立场。未经书面授权，禁止任何形式的复制、修改或引用。如需转载，请注明出处为国 泰君安期货，确保内容完整性，且不得对本点评进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 新浪合作平台国泰君安期货开户 安全快捷有保障 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 陈骏昊投资咨询证号：Z0021546 事件驱动：在2月3日中国有色金属工业协会举行的2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，中 国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫表示，将扎实推进铜冶炼产能治理工作，目前国内已叫停了200多 万吨铜冶炼项目，铜冶炼产能过快增长的势头已得到有效抑制 ...

有色金属/工业金属 江西铜业（600362.SH） 铜冶炼龙头再起航，资源并购助成长 投资评级：买入（首次） | 日期 | 2026/2/2 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 57.08 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 70.70/19.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,976.53 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,184.55 | | 总股本(亿股) | 34.63 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 20.75 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 196.62 | 股价走势图 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 江西铜业 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 孙二春（分析师） 冯伟珉（联系人） sunerchun@kysec.cn 2026 年 02 月 03 日 fengweimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070040 并购投资项目持续落地，铜业龙头再起航 江西铜业是国内领先的铜冶炼生产商，在铜以及相关有色金属领域建立了集勘 探、采矿、选矿、冶炼、加工的一体化产业链。目前公司主要资产包括国内规模 领先的 ...

电解车间现场。 阴极机组建设现场。 四川拥有丰富的铜矿资源，凉山州已探明铜金属储量约167万吨，占全省总量的63%以上，其中会理市探明储 量为91.35万吨，远景储量更超300万吨，是名副其实的"铜都"。然而，过去这里多以开采原矿、生产粗铜（阳极 铜）为主，产业链条短，附加值低。 为了打破困局，2024年初，凉山铜业阴极铜精炼项目正式立项，因四川省"十四五"有色金属发展规划与契合 凉山州"工业强州"战略，被列为省、州重点项目。 1月28日，在凉山州会理市黎溪镇的一片开阔工地上，塔吊林立、管道纵横，这里是凉山铜业12.5万吨/年阴 极铜精炼项目现场。不久前，该项目实现局部投料试车，电解系统首次带料调试，打通了生产关键节点，预计今 年3月这里就将产出阴极铜产品。 "这个项目的投产，将结束凉山州铜资源粗加工模式。"四川会理有色产业经开区管委会主任杨学国介绍。届 时，凉山乃至四川铜产业都将补上"关键一链"。 将资源储备转化为产业资本，一条清晰、坚实的"铜产业之路"正在凉山州铺展。 打破困局 从99.16%到99.9935% 走进正在收尾的电解车间，巨大的电解槽整齐排列。项目指挥部技术员陈昌维指着一个已调试完毕的电解槽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the global copper market hit a new high but with significant fluctuations. The rise was mainly driven by market sentiment and capital inflow, and the price increase was also affected by the changes in the US dollar index and the nomination of a new Fed chair. The domestic copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increased inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [5][8]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a supply - shortage situation, with a projected shortage of 150,000 tons of refined copper. The supply of copper concentrates will remain tight, while the demand from the power grid, new energy, and AI sectors is expected to grow [48][89]. - The long - term upward trend of copper prices is clear. Financially, the US dollar index is likely to decline in the long - term, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. Fundamentally, although the short - term supply is abundant, the long - term supply of copper concentrates is tight, and demand is expected to increase [118]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Market Review in January - The global copper market in January 2026 hit a new high with significant fluctuations. London copper briefly broke through the $14,000 mark but then fell back. The monthly gains of LME copper and SHFE copper were both around 5%, with the outer market slightly stronger than the inner market. Market sentiment and capital inflow were more important factors than fundamentals. The rise in gold and silver prices led to capital overflow into the copper market, and the high gold - copper ratio provided upward momentum for copper valuation [5][8]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the US dollar index fell to a nearly 4 - year low, boosting the prices of gold, silver, and copper. However, Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair at the end of the month caused a shock in global assets, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, dragging down copper prices [8]. - Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. Liquidity was further relaxed, inflation recovered moderately, and market risk appetite increased [8]. - Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new monthly high, while demand entered the off - season. The global copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increasing inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [8]. 3.2 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's inflation is expected to recover moderately in 2026. The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. The consumer price index and core CPI increased, and the PPI showed signs of recovery. The domestic economy is expected to continue the transformation trend of 2025, and copper will benefit from the strong demand in new energy, power grid investment, and AI data center construction [11][13]. - China's copper demand is likely to reach its peak and the growth rate will gradually slow down in the long - term, while the US copper demand has great growth potential due to the reshoring of manufacturing and the expansion of AI capital expenditure. The US is entering a new inventory replenishment cycle, which is positive for copper prices in the medium - term. Although Nvidia's downward revision of the copper demand forecast in data centers caused short - term negative sentiment, the impact on the overall supply - demand balance is limited [18]. - The US dollar index has weakened, which has boosted the prices of gold and silver. The Fed's interest rate decision and Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair have affected the US dollar index. In the long - term, the US dollar is likely to enter a downward cycle [20]. 3.3 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: The global copper mine faces the problems of slow growth and decreasing grade. The annual compound growth rate of global copper mine production has declined from about 5% during 2015 - 2016 to about 2% in recent years. Major mining companies such as Southern Copper and Glencore have lowered their future production forecasts. The global copper concentrate supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short - term, and the supply gap is expected to widen in 2026 and may not be alleviated until 2028 [23][25][27]. - **Domestic Smelting End**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high, mainly due to the release of new capacity, the high price of by - products such as sulfuric acid, and the substitution of scrap copper. In January 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in February. In 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to be about 13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, and global electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 4% [31][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The long - term processing fee (TC/RC) of copper concentrates in 2026 has been set at $0/ton and $0 cents/lb, indicating a tight supply situation. The competition for global copper concentrates will become more intense, and the import copper concentrate index (TC) in China is expected to continue to decline [36]. - **Scrap Copper and Anode**: In 2025, China's recycled copper raw material imports and domestic recycling volume increased. The proportion of recycled copper raw materials flowing to the smelting end continued to rise. In January 2026, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, and the supply of scrap anodes increased, boosting electrolytic copper production [37][39]. - **Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper import volume decreased, and the export volume increased, achieving a tight supply - demand balance. In 2026, the adjustment trend of the import - export structure is expected to continue, and the net import volume may continue to decline [40][42]. 3.4 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: In 2025, China's copper products production reached a new high. In January 2026, production was in the seasonal off - season. In 2026, China's copper products production is expected to maintain double - digit growth, and global total demand is expected to increase by 4 - 5% year - on - year [45][48]. - **Refined Copper Rod**: In 2026, the production of refined copper rods is expected to increase significantly, mainly due to the strengthening of domestic power grid investment. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will see a significant increase in power grid investment, and 2026 is expected to achieve double - digit growth [49][51]. - **Copper Tube**: In 2025, the output of copper tubes increased slightly. In 2026, the output is expected to decline slightly due to the limited effect of consumption - stimulating policies and the high - base effect of exports [52][54]. - **Copper Bar**: In 2025, the production of copper bars decreased, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to decline, becoming a drag on copper consumption due to factors such as the real estate downturn, high copper prices, and policy uncertainties [55][57]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: In 2025, the production of copper plate and strip was lower than the average in recent years, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 due to the impact of the real estate cycle [58][60]. - **Copper Foil**: In 2025, the output of copper foil increased significantly, and in 2026, it is expected to maintain high - speed growth due to the development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries [61][67]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, power grid investment reached a new high. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, power grid investment is expected to increase significantly, and in 2026, the investment of the State Grid and Southern Grid is expected to reach 70 billion yuan and 19 billion yuan respectively, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 7% [68][71]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, real estate investment continued to decline, and in 2026, it is expected to remain a drag on copper consumption [72][74]. - **Home Appliance Consumption**: In 2025, the policy of replacing old home appliances with new ones boosted consumption, but the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year. In 2026, the policy will continue, which is expected to support home appliance consumption [75][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles and AI**: In 2025, the production of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth in the future. The copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to increase rapidly, and the combined copper demand is expected to account for 22% by 2030 [78][80]. 3.5 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In 2025, the total inventory of the three major global exchanges increased, but the inventory structure was contradictory. In 2026, the global copper market shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the total inventory increased, with the structural contradiction alleviating. The domestic social inventory has entered the inventory accumulation cycle [83][85]. 3.6 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global refined copper market was in a state of supply surplus. In 2026, it is expected to shift to a supply - shortage situation, with a shortage of 150,000 tons [89]. 3.7 Copper Position Analysis - As of January 20, 2026, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, but the net long position decreased. The long - position of LME copper investment funds decreased in January, indicating that the market's bullish sentiment has become more cautious [97]. 3.8 Arbitrage Analysis - In January, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026. The copper - zinc ratio has been rising and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [102]. 3.9 Copper Option Market - In January, the historical volatility and implied volatility of copper options rose to a nearly 3 - year high. The market showed signs of over - buying in the short - term, and it is suitable to sell options. The option strategy suggests constructing a short - position of slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. The PCR ratio shows that the option market's expectation of copper prices has turned bullish [107][109]. 3.10 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Technically, copper has broken through the long - term shock range and formed a 20 - year cup - and - handle pattern, which is a bullish signal [116]. - In January, the rise of copper prices was mainly due to the repair of valuation. In the long - term, the downward trend of the US dollar index is clear, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The operation suggestion is that downstream demanders can conduct long - term hedging operations, and the option strategy can consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy to short volatility. The short - term support range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [118].

证券日报网讯 1月30日，铜陵有色（000630）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司结合自身实际按 计划有序地开展生产经营工作，具体情况请以公司的公告为准。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced a significant surge on January 29, 2026, with the Shanghai copper futures reaching a historical peak of 110,970 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of over 6,000 yuan and a rise of 6.71% [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in copper prices exceeded market expectations, with a notable influx of buying activity after 10:30 AM, leading to a significant increase in trading volume and open interest [3]. - The increase in positions for the Shanghai copper futures was 15,000 contracts, with a trading volume spike of 210,000 contracts, indicating a strong "volume-price rise" trend [3]. - The spot market also reflected volatility, with the price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River rising by 1,120 yuan to 102,780 yuan/ton, while the spot discount expanded, indicating caution among downstream enterprises regarding high prices [3][4]. Group 2: Driving Forces - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The expectation of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar provided dual support for copper prices. The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with market predictions suggesting a 47% chance of a rate cut in June [5]. - The dollar index fell to a near four-year low, benefiting copper prices, as lower interest rates reduced the financing costs for holding copper and other commodities [5]. - **Supply Concerns**: Southern Copper Corp. announced a forecasted decline in copper production due to decreasing ore grades at key mines, predicting a drop to 911,400 tons in 2026, significantly lower than the 954,270 tons produced in 2025 [6][7]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Recent geopolitical events have heightened concerns over supply chain security for critical minerals, leading to increased strategic reserves by major consuming countries, which added a "geopolitical premium" to copper prices [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Despite a global increase in copper inventories, there is a regional imbalance, with significant stocks concentrated in North America while Asian warehouses face tight supplies [9]. - The copper concentrate processing fees have been at historical lows, indicating that many smelters are operating at a loss, further tightening supply [9]. - **Demand**: While traditional copper-consuming sectors are experiencing a seasonal slowdown, demand from the renewable energy sector is surging, with electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies driving significant increases in copper consumption [10]. - The demand for copper in electric vehicles is approximately 80 kg per vehicle, significantly higher than traditional vehicles, and the growth in AI data centers is emerging as a new demand driver [10]. Group 4: Institutional Consensus - Major financial institutions are optimistic about the long-term outlook for copper, with Goldman Sachs predicting a "structural bull market" and potential prices reaching $15,000 per ton by 2026 [11][12]. - Morgan Stanley and Citibank also express positive views, highlighting the transformative demand from green energy initiatives and the fundamental changes in copper's supply-demand dynamics [11][12][13]. - Domestic research institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic stance, recognizing the pressures from seasonal demand and high prices but emphasizing the support from supply constraints and surging demand in the renewable sector [13]. Conclusion - The copper market's recent surge reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, supply concerns, and evolving demand dynamics, particularly in the context of global energy transition and geopolitical tensions [14]. - The current price movements may signify the beginning of a broader revaluation of copper's role as a critical resource in energy security and technological advancement [14].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Northern Copper Industry's stock price has experienced significant fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the closing price over two consecutive trading days [1] Group 2 - The company issued an abnormal trading announcement due to the stock price deviation, which is in accordance with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading rules [1] - The market price trends of the company's main products, including cathode copper, gold, and silver, are uncertain, prompting the company to advise investors to be cautious about investment risks [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon dual control in China, with carbon emission intensity becoming a binding indicator and total emissions as a recommended indicator, benefiting green electricity and clean energy applications [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Local governments will implement carbon assessments through various means, including encouraging or mandating companies to purchase renewable energy, formulating local carbon reduction policies, and setting industry carbon emission standards [2][7] - The national carbon market currently focuses on the power industry, with plans to gradually include non-electric industries. The carbon intensity reduction rate in the power sector is expected to increase, with free quotas transitioning to paid allocations by 2027 [2][10] - The carbon market's price is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026 and 2027, provided there are no new transfer restrictions [2][14] - Industries such as paper and flat glass may be included in the carbon market in the next phase, followed by basic chemicals, coal chemicals, refining, and copper smelting [2][17] - The transition to a carbon-centric assessment system means that new projects will focus on carbon emissions rather than energy consumption metrics, favoring the use of renewable energy [5][10] Important but Overlooked Content - The construction of zero-carbon parks aims to demonstrate low-emission areas, with specific requirements for carbon intensity and renewable energy usage [21][22] - The economic viability of zero-carbon parks depends on the availability of renewable energy resources and the cost of direct green electricity connections [23] - The EU carbon tariff significantly impacts China's steel and aluminum exports, with potential expansion to other industries [29][31] - The gradual tightening of the EU's free quota policy will increase carbon costs, leading to a rise in carbon prices in the coming years [31] - The potential for future adjustments to the default values used for measuring carbon emissions from Chinese exports to the EU, which are currently considered unreasonably high [30] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the industry's transition towards carbon control, the implications for various sectors, and the potential impacts of international policies.