| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 98,860.00 | +140.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 12,534.00 | +371.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -80.00 | +60.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 235,503.00 | -16594.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -41,742.00 | -13656.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 157,025.00 | -1550.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 111,703.00 | +15898.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 48,875.00 | -2875.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 65,878.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 100,740.00 | ...

市场博弈加剧，铜价站在十万 ——铜铝周报2025.12.29 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：市场继续交易明年美联储降息。 | 沪铜2602合约 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：全球铜库存继续向美国市场转移，供应端仍存在紧张预 | 位105000元/ | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 期，关注年底冶炼厂长单谈判情况。需求方面，高价铜短期抑制需 | 吨一线，下方 | 济数据变化； | | | 求，但长期看，AI等新兴领域用铜需求或将成为爆发点。 | 参考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：铜价中期看涨逻辑不变，短期关注宏观情绪和资金面 | 95000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 的扰动。 | 线。 | | 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | ...

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：弱美元叠加供紧预期，铜价突破新高 2025-12-29 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜继续突破上行。截至上周五收至98720元/吨，周涨幅5.95%。宏观面，美联储政策偏宽松预期持续，弱美元支撑金属上 涨。国家发改委《大力推动传统产业优化提升》文件提出铜冶炼端的约束，铜产业反内卷情绪继续升温。嘉能可旗下铜矿工会传出罢 工可能性，加剧铜供给紧缺担忧。当前美国comex囤积的铜库存持续增加，非美地区铜供应紧张预期持续，区域性供需错配显著。宏 观面美联储宽松货币预期和产业面供给紧缺担忧继续推升铜价。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 25-12-26 25-12-22 25-12-16 25-12-10 25-12-04 25-11-28 25-11-24 25-11-18 25-11-12 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2602 of Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 93,390 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 99,730 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - From December 25th to 26th, the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology emphasized ten key tasks for 2026, including cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect 2 rate cuts, with the policy rate dropping to 3.00% - 3.25%. [12][13] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Electrolytic Copper Production - As of November 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. As of December 25, 2025, the Chinese copper smelter's rough smelting fee was - 44 dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.58 cents/pound. [16] 3.3.2 Copper Product Production - As of November 2025, monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. [22] 3.4 Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Global Visible Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 111,703 tons, an increase of 15,898 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, 2025, LME copper inventory was 158,575 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 29.34%. [26] 3.4.2 Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the Shanghai bonded area inventory was 96,500 tons (a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week), the Guangdong area inventory was 23,900 tons, and the Wuxi area inventory was 40,100 tons. [26] 3.5 Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path dot - plot shows 1 rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, but analysts generally expect 2 - 3 rate cuts. Global refined copper supply and demand are basically balanced. Electrolytic copper production is growing rapidly month - on - month and still has a high year - on - year growth. Chinese copper smelter processing fees are slightly decreasing. The price difference between refined and scrap copper is expanding rapidly. Copper product production remains at a high level. Shanghai copper inventory has increased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly. [35] 3.6 Future Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts. [5][36]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a general increase, with notable highs in silver, copper, and lithium carbonate [2] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 4.23% and crude oil by 3.56% [2] - Lithium carbonate futures reached a new high, with prices exceeding 130,000 yuan/ton, marking a 65.02% increase for the year [2][3] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Insights - Lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, with spot prices reported at 111,900 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 14.59% [3] - Supply remains tight, with a decrease in imports from Chile by 26.84% in November [3] - Demand is expected to grow, particularly in the energy storage sector, with a projected growth rate of 40%-50% by 2026 [3] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper futures saw a 5.95% increase, closing at 98,720 yuan/ton, breaking the 100,000 yuan mark [5] - Supply constraints are evident, with a significant reduction in processing fees expected by 2026 [6] - Demand from the electric grid and the electric vehicle sector is expected to support copper prices [6][7] Group 4: Industrial Profit Trends - In November, industrial profits for large enterprises fell to a year-on-year decline of 13.1%, a drop of 7.6 percentage points from October [8] - The mining sector saw a profit decline of 21.2%, while high-tech manufacturing profits increased by 10% [8][9] - The overall profit margin for industrial enterprises is under pressure, with an asset-liability ratio reaching a near ten-year high [9] Group 5: Currency and Economic Outlook - The offshore RMB broke the 7.0 mark against the USD, with a 4% appreciation year-to-date [11] - Factors driving this appreciation include a weaker USD, stronger Chinese stock market, and increased demand for currency conversion by export enterprises [11] - Predictions suggest the RMB may maintain a strong position against the USD, with a potential target of 6.8 [12][13]

查看完整报告 特别申明： 点击注册小程序 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】多重支撑护航，春季行情行稳致远——策略周专题（2025年12月第4期） 政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。一方面，历史来看，A股市场中几乎每 年都存在"春季躁动"行情；另一方面，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。 此外，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入。行业配置方面，结合往年规律及当 前市场环境，关注成长及消费板块；主题方面，可逢低关注商业航天概念。 （张宇生/郭磊）2025-12-27 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 （王招华/马俊）2025-12-28 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【有色】国家发改委强调对铜冶炼强化管理和 ...

点击注册小程序 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至2025年12月19日，全球三大交易所库存合计71.6 万吨，环比12月12日 +1.4%。截至2025年12月23日，LME铜全球库存15.7 万吨，环比-4.3%；SMM铜社会库存19.4 万吨，环比 12月18日+16.8%。截至12月26日，COMEX铜库存48.3 万吨，环比12月18日+5.1%。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行 截至2025年12月26日，SHFE铜收盘价98720 元/吨，环比12月19日+5.95%；LME铜收盘价12133 美元/ 吨，环比12月19日+3.37%。（1）宏观：本周周内美元指数创2025年11月21日以来新低。（2）供需：国 家发改委12月26日发布《大 ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月28日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：利多逻辑中发酵，价格大幅上涨 强弱分析：强，价格区间：97000-105000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 COMEX和LME价差回落至150美元/吨左右 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内上涨近 4%。矿端加工费长协定价为零提振市场情绪，连续 数日铜价上行，11 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量 110.31 万吨，环比增加 1.15 万吨，环比增幅 1.05%，同比增幅 9.75%。1-11 月累计产量同比增加 128.94 万吨，增幅为 11.76%。SMM 预计 12 月电解铜产量环比增加 6.57 万吨，增幅 5.96%，同比增幅 6.69%。本周铜价上 涨，铜材利润受挤压，铜板带生产积极性弱势，产能利用率下滑，生产企业出于原材料 价格、库存以及需求等多重因素考虑，普遍放慢生产节奏；铜管企业受资金压力制约， 多数企业选择观望，仅维持刚性订单的原料提货，市场交易活跃度受到明显抑制。铜箔 方面受储能电池需求及终端新能源汽车前置需求的影响，保持高景气水平。上期所阴极 铜库存连续累库，印证下游拿货能力下降。国家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提 升》。对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局。受消息 刺激，盘面今日大幅上涨，关注上方十万整数关口。 资料来源： ...

信期货有限公司 Company Limited 发改委强调优化铜冶炼产能,铜价延续偏强走势 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 近期刷价延续偏击老，伦铜价格顺序废12000美元/吨，沪铜价格通近.0W元/吨关口，铜价持续刷新历史新高。消息面来看，国家发展改革委产业发展司发表题为《大力推动传统产业优 化提升》的文章，提出对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局。铜冶炼产能有望得到优化，精炼铜供应端增速收缩的预期进一步加强。 基本面情况 宏观方面，美联猪12月议易会议延续降息，并且宣布12月开始董自扩表、流动性宽松对铜价形成支撑。供需面来看，铜矿供应就动持续增加，印尼Grasberg硕矿城产加剧了铜矿供应的紧张 程度，2026年铜"长单加工费落地，创造了历史的饭值夸美元！吨，腰的所伍的给加工费将影响危險下刺潮。中国铜原料联合谈判小组(CSPT)两次形式论，成员企业达成共识将在 2026年 度降低矿铜产铬负荷10%以上，精炼铜供应端收缩的预期进一步加强。需求端，随着需求淡季来临，终端需求季节性走弱，库存持续累积、国内铜则货再次转为此水状态。 总结及策略 展望后市。随着美联储12月 ...