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有色板块分化明显!分析人士:铜价有望继续领涨
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-07 00:06
与铜市的强势不同,其他有色金属品种价格表现相对平淡。张天骜分析,全球经济数据疲软是重要制约 因素。8月以来,美国"对等关税"实施,国内外经济数据普遍不及预期,下游需求"旺季不旺"特征明 显,房地产行业持续萎缩削弱金属消费,汽车行业则需依赖出口增长,对金属需求的拉动有限。 "今年以来,铜价领涨有色板块,业内预计这一趋势将在四季度延续。"刘培洋称,从供给端看,9月份 印尼Grasberg铜矿发生重大事故,直接导致全球第二大铜矿停产。另外,该公司还下调2026年全年铜产 量指引35%,即26.95万吨,进一步加剧了全球铜矿的紧张预期。SMM预计,2025年全球铜精矿供需平 衡结果为-26.8万吨,2026年的结果为-30.8万吨,直到2028年才会转化为过剩8.8万吨。此外,铜精矿加 工费维持低位、铜冶炼副产品硫酸价格下跌、行业"反内卷"等均将支撑铜价走高。 近日,工业和信息化部等八部门联合印发的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026 年)》(下 称《方案》),为未来有色金属行业的发展指明了方向。分析人士认为,在美联储开启降息周期、国内 政策利好预期升温的宏观背景下,叠加印尼铜矿事故等供给端扰动,四季度有 ...
有色行业迎来政策利好
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 02:52
Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in value added and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten nonferrous metals [2][3] Group 1: Industry Goals and Measures - The plan sets specific targets, including a production of over 20 million tons of recycled metals and accelerated domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [2] - Five categories of ten specific measures are proposed to address high resource dependency and insufficient high-end supply, focusing on resource development and industrial transformation [2] - A new round of exploration strategies will be implemented to enhance the exploration and mining rights allocation for strategic resources like copper, aluminum, and lithium [2][3] Group 2: Technological and Digital Transformation - The plan emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence in the nonferrous metal sector and aims for a 25% increase in production efficiency through smart upgrades in the smelting process [2][3] - High-end material breakthroughs are targeted, including copper alloy materials and new rare earth materials [2] Group 3: Financial and Monitoring Support - Financial measures include a proposed 50 billion yuan investment fund for the recycled metal industry and the coordination of long-term special government bonds [3] - An industry big data monitoring system will be established to manage key enterprises and projects dynamically, along with a capacity warning mechanism for key products like copper and aluminum [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Projections - Prices for various nonferrous metals are expected to rise due to strict supply controls and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between nonferrous metal prices and the U.S. dollar's monetary cycle, suggesting an overall upward trend in prices [4] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities are seen in the recycled metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term growth is expected for companies focused on domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resources [5][6] - Companies in the copper sector are recommended for their potential benefits from supply constraints and improving demand dynamics, particularly in light of the Fed's anticipated rate cuts [6]
【A股收评】沪指继续上攻逼近3900点,半导体、有色领涨!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 09:28
Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices showed fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index remaining flat, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 1.69% [2] - Over 2,500 stocks in the two markets experienced gains, with a total trading volume of approximately 2.18 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Industrial Metals Sector - The industrial metals sector was notably strong, with Jiangxi Copper (600362.SH) and Shengtun Mining (600711.SH) both rising by 10% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, focusing on optimizing project layouts and avoiding redundant low-level construction [2] - The plan emphasizes the importance of national reserves for key products, which may enhance profit elasticity for related sector companies [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector remained active, with stocks like Jiangbolong (301308.SZ) rising by 20% and Huahong Semiconductor (688347.SH) increasing by over 15% [3] - The release of the DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp model, which incorporates a sparse attention architecture, is expected to improve efficiency and usability in the industry [3] - There are indications of a second round of price increases in the storage market, with SanDisk announcing a price hike of over 10% and Micron Technology notifying channel partners of a 20%-30% increase [3] Group 4: Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector performed well, with companies like Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ) rising by 8.75% [4] - Major players in the battery industry reported strong demand, with factories operating at full capacity and orders extending into early next year [5] Group 5: Photovoltaic Sector - Some photovoltaic concepts also showed strength, with Godewei (688390.SH) increasing by 12.68% [5] - The demand for domestic energy storage cells is robust, with a target of reaching over 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027, potentially driving an investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [5] Group 6: Weak Sectors - Sectors such as securities, banking, insurance, and liquor showed weakness, with notable declines in stocks like Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) and Guangfa Securities (000776.SH) [5]
工业金属领域面临矿端干扰,矿业ETF(561330)、有色60ETF(159881)盘中涨超3%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-30 03:26
(责任编辑:董萍萍 ) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱: news_center@staff.hexun.com 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF发起联接C(018168),国泰中证有 色金属矿业主题ETF发起联接A(018167);国泰中证有色金属ETF发起联接C(013219),国泰中证有 色金属ETF发起联接A(013218)。 注:如提及个股仅供参考,不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考,不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动,不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考,不构成任何投资建议,也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品,请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 西部证券指出,工业金属领域面临矿端干扰与冶炼端结构性调整。全球第二大铜矿Grasberg因泥石 流事故停产,Freeport将2026年铜产量预期从77万吨下调至50万 ...
华泰证券今日早参-20250930
HTSC· 2025-09-30 01:22
Group 1: Securities Industry - The report highlights a favorable configuration opportunity in the securities sector, driven by multiple factors including policy support for capital market development, increased market participation from institutions and residents, and a recovery in brokerage business lines [2][4]. - The current valuation and positioning of the brokerage sector are at mid-low levels since 2014, suggesting a high cost-performance investment opportunity [2][4]. Group 2: Nonferrous Metals Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", aiming to address resource security and demand issues, promoting stable operation and transformation of the industry [2][3]. - Short-term investment opportunities are expected in the recycling metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term benefits are anticipated for domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resource mining companies [2][3]. - Companies with extensive experience in copper, aluminum, and magnesium alloy processing are likely to benefit from the upgrading of materials in automotive and electronics sectors, leading to increased processing fees and profits [2][3]. Group 3: Banking Sector - The report indicates an improvement in the cost-performance ratio for quality banks, with some banks' dividend yields exceeding 5% [4]. - The banking sector is expected to see a recovery in core business profitability and asset quality, driven by policy focus on stabilizing interest margins and preventing tail risks [4]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks and those with stable dividends, such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and New Energy - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant increase in production, with a projected output of 135.8 GWh in October, reflecting a 7.9% month-on-month increase [5]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, driven by the domestic market and the electrification of commercial vehicles [5]. Group 5: Petrochemical Industry - The "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance high-end supply and regulate major project construction, which is expected to optimize supply in various sub-sectors [9]. - The report recommends companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. due to anticipated improvements in industry conditions and the development of high-end chemical materials [9]. Group 6: Company Ratings - Changfei Optical Fiber is rated "Buy" with a target price of 115.52 RMB, driven by its leading position in the optical fiber market and expected growth from AI infrastructure [12][14]. - The report also highlights the dual business strategy of Weigao Medical, projecting a return to normal operations in its consumer goods segment and continued growth in its medical segment [13][14].
供需收紧,铜价震荡偏强
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 08:20
分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 冠通期货-沪铜2025年四季报 供需收紧,铜价震荡偏强 研究咨询部: 王 静 执业资格证号:F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间: 2025年9月29日 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 分析师王静:F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 核心观点 2 ➢ 宏观方面:三季度美联储交易降息预期,市场有降息50bp的预期,且对美联储独立性存疑,美元指数连续下挫,铜价震荡偏强但降息靴子落地后不及市场预 期,沪铜盘面下行,回吐部分涨幅。232调查的铜关税落地,自8月1日起对进口铜半成品及铜含量高的衍生产品统一征收50%的关税,征收范围不包含铜矿及 精铜,此前美国铜虹吸效应逐渐结束。国内方面,反内卷举措推涨大宗商品行情,一揽子政策发布,加速上游产业端产能出清。 ➢ 供给方面:2025年2月以来,铜冶炼厂加工费TC/RC一直维持负值,且持续走弱,冶炼端的利润走弱也在侧面反映出了铜矿端的偏紧事实,据Mysteel数据显示,9月国内 冶炼厂计划产量为114.76万吨,10月预计产量112.35万吨 ...
铜陵有色:关于聘任总经理的公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2025-09-29 08:18
证券日报网讯 9月29日,铜陵有色发布公告称,2025年9月26日,公司第十届第二十五次董事会审议通 过了《公司关于聘任总经理的议案》。公司董事会同意聘任文燕先生为公司总经理,任期自本次董事会 审议通过之日起至第十届董事会届满之日止。 (编辑 任世碧) ...
银河期货铜10月报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 07:17
| | | | | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 œ | 0 | O 1 | 0 1 > | O | 2 | O œ | | | | | 美联储降息预期提高,铜价高位盘整 | | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 2 | | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | | 第二部分 | | 铜矿扰动增加,供应紧张的情况难以缓解 5 | | | 一、 铜精矿供应增量骤降 | | 5 | | | 二、 | | 全球废铜供应错配,国内废铜供应紧张 8 | | | 三、 原料供应不足向冶炼端传导加速 | | 9 | | | 第三部分 | 消费面分析 | 12 | | | 一、 | 国内需求分化 | 12 | | | 二、 | | 新能源对全球消费的带动边际走弱 17 | | | 三 ...
铜陵有色2025年半年度利润分配拟:10股派0.5元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 04:21
铜陵有色(000630.SZ)公告,公司2025年半年度利润分配预案拟:向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.5元 (含税),不送红股、不进行资本公积金转增股本,剩余未分配利润结转至下一期。 铜陵有色(000630.SZ)公告,公司2025年半年度利润分配预案拟:向全体股东... ...
双融日报-20250929
Huaxin Securities· 2025-09-29 01:37
2025 年 09 月 29 日 双融日报 最近一年大盘走势 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 资料来源:Wind,华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2025-09-26 2、《双融日报》2025-09-25 3、《双融日报》2025-09-24 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标:(较冷) 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示,昨日市场情绪综合评分为 39 分,市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 --鑫融讯 分析师:万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪:39 分(较冷) 今日热点主题:人工智能、有色金属、储能 1、人工智能主题:阿里集团董事兼首席执行官吴泳铭 9 月 24 日在 2025 云栖大会上表示,大模型是下一代操作系统, 而 AI 云是下一代计算机,也许未来全世界只会有五六个超级 云计算平台。目前阿里正积极推进 3800 亿元的 AI 基础设施 建设,并计划追加更大的投入。相关标的:工业富联 (601138)、中际旭创(300308) 2、有色金属主题:印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因山体滑坡推迟复工 至 ...