（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 云南铜业11月21日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，西南铜业搬迁项目采用世 界先进铜冶炼工艺和装备，可实现资源的高效综合利用，降低生产成本，提升公司的综合竞争力。公司 西南、东南、北方三个铜冶炼基地布局合理，多技术路线并进，使公司在生产组织上更加灵活，能够根 据不同的原料和市场情况合理调配，提高了原料适应性。近年来，公司通过持续降本、提质等措施提升 整体竞争力，目前冶炼加工成本具有一定竞争优势。 ...

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 | 业 业 （ 1 ） 美 国 9 月 非 农 就 人 口 增 长 1 1. 9 万 人 是 预 期 的 两 倍 多 但 7 月 和 8 月 非 农 就 人 数 合 计 下 修 3. 3 万 人 9 月 | | --- | | 。 ， ， 失 业 率 意 外 升 至 4. 4 % 为 2 0 2 1 年 1 0 月 以 来 最 高 市 场 焦 点 ， 。 一 （ 2 ） 中 国 央 行 将 年 期 和 五 年 期 贷 款 市 场 报 价 利 率 （ L P R ） 分 别 维 持 在 3 % 和 3. 5 % 不 变 为 连 续 六 个 月 保 持 不 变 ， 。 宏 观 面 美 国 9 月 非 农 数 据 喜 忧 参 半 市 场 仍 在 等 待 更 多 数 据 指 引 美 联 储 官 员 讲 话 最 近 整 体 偏 鹰 市 场 对 于 1 2 ， ， ， ， 月 继 续 降 息 的 押 ...

Group 1: Production and Resource Management - The production situation of the major shareholder's Peru Copper is normal, with a signed equity custody agreement to avoid competition and protect shareholder interests [2] - The company is focusing on resource replacement and increasing reserves, with significant investments in geological research and exploration activities [3] - The company is in the process of acquiring 40% of Liangshan Mining from Yunnan Copper Group, which will enhance resource reserves [3] Group 2: Cost Management and Competitive Advantage - The new Southwest Copper project utilizes advanced smelting technology to reduce production costs and enhance competitiveness [4] - The company has a competitive advantage in smelting processing costs due to ongoing cost reduction and quality improvement measures [4] - The company maintains stable long-term relationships with suppliers to ensure a steady supply of raw materials [5] Group 3: Strategic Response to Market Changes - The company is implementing a strategic layout focusing on digital transformation, resource expansion, and cost reduction, aiming for further cost decreases in 2024 [6] - The company is increasing the procurement of urban mining resources to mitigate the impact of declining processing fees [7] - Sulfur production and sales have seen significant price increases this year, contributing positively to the company's performance [7]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding expectations, but previous months' figures were revised down by 33,000 [6][11] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest level in four years [6][11] - China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for six consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [8][11] Group 2: Market Trends - The stock market saw a decline, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [11] - Financing balance decreased by 4.576 billion to 24,803.25 billion [11] - The market style is expected to balance out if overseas tech earnings materialize and small-cap stocks complete their corrections [11] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Copper prices rose during the day, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, despite weak demand in the real estate sector [19] - Oil prices fell by 0.73%, influenced by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies and ongoing geopolitical tensions [14] - Methanol prices increased by 0.3%, with domestic production levels showing slight fluctuations [15]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals is a leading copper smelting enterprise in China, covering the entire industry chain from resource extraction to smelting and processing. The company is the largest producer of cathode copper in the country, with smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons. However, since 2024, tightening copper ore supply has led to a decline in copper smelting fees, resulting in a slight decrease in the company's copper product profit margins. There are concerns about whether the company's substantial smelting capacity will be impacted by the continued decline in smelting fees, which could squeeze profit margins [1]. Copper Products Sector - From an industry perspective, the growth rate of electrolytic copper production in 2026-2027 may be lower than that of copper ore supply, indicating potential upward improvement in smelting fees. Demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers is expected to drive an increase in copper demand. However, due to ongoing disruptions at the mining level and a slowdown in the expansion of midstream smelting capacity, the global copper supply-demand surplus may decrease, supporting an upward trend in copper prices in the medium term [2]. - On the company level, the expansion of the Mirador copper mine is expected to enhance the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs. The integrated project for green intelligent copper-based new materials is anticipated to expand the company's smelting capacity. With expectations of improving industry smelting fees and rising copper prices, the increase in resource self-sufficiency is likely to enhance profit elasticity in the smelting segment [2]. - The company is also focusing on high-end copper processing and precious metal resources, which are expected to drive profitability. The subsidiary Tongguan Copper Foil was listed separately in 2022, and the demand for high-end electronic copper foil products is anticipated to grow in the context of rapid development in AI and electronic communication industries. Additionally, the precious metals segment, including gold, is expected to continue contributing to the company's profits, with rising prices anticipated due to deteriorating dollar credit conditions. The expansion of the Mirador copper mine is expected to increase gold production, potentially leading to a rise in both volume and price in the gold segment [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.27, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025-2027. Based on a comparable company's 2026 PE of 16X, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set for the company. Therefore, the initial coverage recommends a buy rating for the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the copper industry is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with copper prices likely to rise due to increased demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers. The company's expansion projects are anticipated to enhance its profitability and resource self-sufficiency [4][12][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., is one of the largest cathode copper producers in China, with a smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons. It has developed a comprehensive copper industry chain covering resource exploration, smelting, and processing [20][21]. Copper Product Segment - The report indicates that the copper price is expected to rise, and there is a marginally positive outlook for smelting fees, which could enhance profit elasticity. The company is set to benefit from the expected increase in copper prices and improved smelting fees due to supply constraints [4][12][10]. - The Mirador copper mine expansion is projected to increase the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs, while the completion of the green intelligent copper-based new materials industrial park is expected to expand smelting capacity [4][12]. Other Segments - The company is focusing on high-end copper processing and precious metal resources, which are expected to drive profitability. The subsidiary, Tongguan Copper Foil, has been listed separately and is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the AI and electronic communication sectors [4][12]. - The precious metals segment, particularly gold, is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, supported by deteriorating dollar credit conditions [4][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027. Based on a comparable company PE of 16X for 2026, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set [5][7].

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年11月17日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：当地时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，正式结束美政府"停摆"。据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为44.4%，维持利率不变的概率为55.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为 48.6%，维持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为16.7%。 ➢ 供给方面：11月预计5家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能150万吨，预计检修影响量为4.80万吨，但10月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端 积极性增加，产量有望上移。据SMM调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体如何执行仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价 上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺口。 ➢ 需求方面：铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出现需求前置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate supply in the raw material end of the fundamentals remains tight, and the copper cost support logic still exists. On the supply side, smelters' profit environment is poor due to weak processing fees and high costs, and smelting capacity may be limited. The total domestic refined copper supply is still at a high level but the growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the high copper price may suppress the downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows down and the demand is temporarily stable, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are slightly expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,829.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 22.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 179,927 lots, a decrease of 12,366 lots. The LME copper inventory is 135,725 tons, a decrease of 450 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 109,407 tons, a decrease of 5,628 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 32 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.50 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, a decrease of 17.20 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 77,400 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 78,100 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 190 yuan. The rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.21 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.17 dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, a decrease of 3.50 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, an increase of 1.00 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative value of grid infrastructure investment is 4,378.07 billion yuan, an increase of 582.31 billion yuan; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 73,563 billion yuan, an increase of 5,857.29 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,180,000 thousand pieces, a decrease of 191,236.10 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.89%, a decrease of 0.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.46%, a decrease of 0.08%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 15.8%, a decrease of 0.0030; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.26, an increase of 0.0363. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply slightly decreases and demand gradually increases, with inventory reduction in the industry and positive expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,840.00 yuan/ton, up 210.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,834.00 dollars/ton, up 7.00 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 0.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 200,769.00 lots, down 1,602.00 lots. The futures top 20 open interest of Shanghai copper is - 20,440.00 lots, down 229.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,250.00 tons, down 25.00 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper is 115,035.00 tons, down 1,105.00 tons. The SHFE warrant of cathode copper is 44,088.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,795.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,910.00 yuan/ton, up 65.00 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 45.00 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 33.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 45.00 yuan/ton, down 180.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread is - 21.28 dollars/ton, down 6.43 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.20 million tons. The copper smelter's roughing charge (TC) is - 42.04 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.11 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 77,150.00 yuan/metal ton, up 340.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 77,850.00 yuan/metal ton, up 340.00 yuan. The southern processing fee of blister copper is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00 yuan; the northern processing fee is 900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 126.60 million tons, down 3.50 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000.00 tons, down 52,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,040.00 yuan/ton, up 450.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 790.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,550.00 yuan/ton, up 350.00 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,378.07 billion yuan, up 582.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 67,705.71 billion yuan, up 7,396.52 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236.10 thousand pieces, up 120,949.00 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.41%, down 0.92%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.33%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 13.78%, up 0.0017%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is up 0.0127 [2] Industry News - From the four - week period ending October 25, the US private sector on average lost 11,250 jobs per week, and Goldman Sachs estimated that the US non - farm payrolls in October decreased by about 50,000, the largest decline since 2020. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework. The NDRC has recommended 105 REITs projects to the CSRC, 83 of which have been issued and listed, covering 10 industries and 18 asset types, expected to drive new project investment of over 1 trillion yuan. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in China accounted for over 50% of the total new vehicle sales for the first time, reaching 51.6%. The NDRC held a private enterprise symposium, and enterprises suggested improving policy support systems such as social security and taxation in the "15th Five - Year Plan" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The news that the US government is about to end the shutdown and the friendly trade between China and the US have boosted market risk appetite, leading to a slightly stronger upward trend in Shanghai copper futures. However, attention should be paid to the release of economic data after the government resumes operations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher and trended lower, with a slightly stronger upward trend during intraday trading. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude refining capacity of 1.5 million tons, and the expected maintenance impact is 48,000 tons. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 85.4%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper is 63.3%, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper is still affected, but after the policies in some regions become clear, the operations are gradually recovering. It is expected that the supply of scrap copper will increase in the future to make up for the tight supply of copper ore. Last week, the copper price decreased compared to the previous period, and the price reduction led to an increase in the purchasing volume of downstream enterprises. However, the peak season this year was not as good as in previous years and has basically ended. The short - term increase in purchasing due to the price correction has not reversed the weak demand of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of downstream copper products has decreased compared to the previous period, and the performance of traditional terminal industries is average. Since the end of October, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been continuously increasing. As of November 7, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 43,400 tons, a 9.28% increase from the previous week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and trended higher, then declined during intraday trading. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is - 20 yuan/ton. On November 10, 2025, the LME official price was 10,815 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 315 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 10, the spot crude refining fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory is 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,817 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, an increase of 1,425 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 372,300 short tons, an increase of 2,950 short tons from the previous period [11]