Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Yongshan Lithium Industry (603399.SH) currently does not possess its own lithium mine resources and primarily sources lithium through long-term procurement agreements [1] Group 2 - The company has clarified its sourcing strategy for lithium, indicating reliance on long-term contracts rather than self-owned mining operations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides various data on the lithium carbonate market, including futures, spot, basis, and cost - profit data. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 82.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 96.7% [3] - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the main contract is 166,740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6,240 yuan (3.89%) and a weekly increase of 4,800 yuan (2.96%); the trading volume is 376,418 lots, with a daily decrease of 74,656 lots (-16.55%) and a weekly decrease of 212,601 lots (-36.09%); the open interest is 427,928 lots, with a daily increase of 12,577 lots (3.03%) and a weekly decrease of 24,655 lots (-5.45%) [4] - **CME and LME Futures**: CME and LME have data on lithium hydroxide and lithium spodumene futures, showing prices, trading volumes, and open interests for different contract months [16] 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Lithium ore prices, such as lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) at 4,835 yuan/ton (up 125 yuan, 2.65% daily), lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) at 8,450 yuan/ton (up 155 yuan, 1.87% daily), and others, have different price changes [21] - **Lithium Salts**: Industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at 155,000 yuan/ton (up 6,000 yuan, 4.03% daily), battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 158,500 yuan/ton (up 6,000 yuan, 3.93% daily), etc [21] - **Cell Materials**: Prices of cell materials like energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) at 56,190 yuan/ton (up 1,450 yuan, 2.65% daily), and power lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) at 55,595 yuan/ton (up 1,455 yuan, 2.69% daily), have different price fluctuations [22] - **Price Spreads**: There are price spreads between different lithium products, such as the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate at 3,500 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the main continuous contract and near - month contract of lithium carbonate shows different trends over time; brand - specific basis quotes for lithium carbonate from different companies are also provided, such as - 1,200 yuan for Shengxin Lithium Energy's LC2601 contract [31][33] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 27,698 lots, with some changes in individual warehouse receipts, like a decrease of 13 lots in Shanghai State Reserve [36] 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticizing and smelting methods are presented [38] - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are also shown [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved impressive Q3 performance in 2025, with revenue of 6.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 334 million yuan, up 116.02% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to stable orders from high-quality customers and improved operational efficiency [1] - The demand for energy storage is expected to rise, with global lithium battery shipments projected to reach 620 GWh in 2025, a 77% increase year-on-year, and 960 GWh in 2026, a 54.8% increase. This trend is expected to create a favorable supply-demand landscape for lithium [2] - The company has established a diversified lithium resource guarantee system through self-controlled and purchased mines, ensuring stable raw material supply. The Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe has a processing capacity of 2.3 million tons per year [2] - The company is advancing its solid-state battery layout, with plans to start building a lithium sulfide pilot line in 2026, achieving industry-leading product specifications [3] - The company is actively participating in mergers and acquisitions in the civil explosives industry, aiming to expand capacity and business reach, particularly in Africa and Australia [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts a net profit of 610 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 36.3%, and an increase to 1.31 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 5.6% rise. The projected net profit for 2027 is 1.59 billion yuan, with P/E ratios of 44, 21, and 17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - Revenue is expected to decline to 7.716 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 8.693 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 11.757 billion yuan in 2026 and 14.745 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 13.5% in 2023 to 25.4% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the company, Keli Yuan, is focusing on increasing its lithium carbonate production capacity and reducing production costs through enhanced mining operations and resource procurement [2] Group 2 - The company sources its lithium carbonate raw materials primarily from its four lithium resource mines, supplemented by external procurement [2] - Keli Yuan's subsidiary, Jinfeng Lithium Industry, has a planned production capacity of 30,000 tons per year for lithium carbonate, with the first phase of 10,000 tons already reaching full production in 2023 [2] - The subsequent 20,000 tons production line will be accelerated based on technological development progress and market conditions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view presented in the report. It mainly provides comprehensive data on the lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and cost - profit information. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 81.8%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 96.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Indicators**: The main contract's closing price is 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13,240 yuan (8.99%) and a weekly decrease of 6,480 yuan (-3.88%). The trading volume is 451,074 lots, with a daily increase of 121,948 lots (37.05%) and a weekly decrease of 157,103 lots (-25.83%). The open interest is 415,351 lots, with a daily increase of 4,020 lots (0.98%) and a weekly decrease of 44,930 lots (-9.76%) [3]. - **Spread Data**: LC2605 - LC2607 is -860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan (59.26%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (38.71%); LC2605 - LC2609 is -1,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 640 yuan (-31.37%) and a weekly decrease of 820 yuan (-36.94%); LC2607 - LC2609 is -540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 960 yuan (-64.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1,060 yuan (-66.25%) [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 27,681 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots (-0.06%) and a weekly increase of 783 lots (2.91%) [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is priced at 4,710 yuan/ton (no daily change), lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) is 8,295 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 70 yuan, 0.85%), lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) is 14,075 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 125 yuan, 0.90%), etc. [20]. - **Lithium Salts**: Industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 1.02%), battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,500 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 0.99%), etc. [20]. - **Cell Materials**: Energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,740 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.66%), power lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,140 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.67%), etc. [21]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.961, with a daily decrease of 0.0031 (-0.04%) [21]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton (no change), the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is -12,800 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,680 yuan, 15.11%), etc. [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main continuous contract basis and near - month contract basis of lithium carbonate are presented in historical trend charts [30][31]. - **Brand Basis**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., for the LC2601 contract are provided, with most having no daily change [32]. - **Warehouse Receipt Seasonality**: The lithium carbonate warehouse receipt seasonality chart is shown, and the total warehouse receipt quantity is 27,698 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots [34][35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Data - **Production Profits**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented in trend charts [37]. - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are shown in trend charts [38][40].

Report Title - The title of the report is "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Short - term expectations are fully reflected, and carbonate lithium fluctuates at a high level" [1] Report Information - The analyst is Zhang Qing, with a consulting account number Z0019679, from the Research Institute of Zhonghui Futures. The report date is January 16, 2026 [2] Market View Summary Macroeconomic Overview - In December, China's exports increased by 2.3% year - on - year (expected 3%), imports decreased by 3.1% year - on - year (expected 2.9%), and the trade surplus was $75.34 billion. The export growth rate slowed down, and the import decline widened. The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.45%, and the 5 - year LPR was reported at 4.2%, remaining unchanged for the 9th consecutive month. The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools such as re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses and rediscounts starting from January 19. M2 increased by 8.7% year - on - year in December. The increase in social financing scale was 2.45 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 1.4 trillion yuan. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and increased by 0.38% month - on - month. The Fed's interest rate cut was postponed. The Prime Minister of Canada visited China this week to promote China - Canada economic and trade cooperation in the fields of agriculture and energy [3]. Supply Side - This week, the production of carbonate lithium decreased slightly, but the weekly production remained above 24,000 tons, and the average industry operating rate was above 50% [3]. Demand Side - From January 1st to 11th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market were 117,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 38% compared with the same period in January last year and a 67% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 117,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 38%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 167,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 30% compared with the same period in January last year and a 51% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 167,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 30% [4]. Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore increased. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was $1,750 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $120 per ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,250 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $368 per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 6,050 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan per ton. The profit of the carbonate lithium industry was 39,668 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,593 yuan [4]. Total Inventory - As of January 15th, the total inventory was 109,679 tons, a decrease of 263 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 19,727 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,345 tons [4]. Market Outlook - The basis between futures and spot prices remained stable this week. The discount of battery - grade carbonate lithium was concentrated between 500 - 2,400 yuan per ton, and that of industrial - grade carbonate lithium was concentrated between 1,900 - 3,300 yuan per ton. The actual transaction discount of battery - grade carbonate lithium was between 2,000 - 3,000 yuan per ton. Upstream lithium salt producers were active in selling, and traders were active in purchasing. Downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines due to cost pressure. The main contract of carbonate lithium fluctuated greatly this week. At the beginning of the week, it rose for two consecutive days due to the news of canceling the export tax rebate on lithium batteries. However, with the overall decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the exchange's new position - limit measures leading to capital outflows, the price of carbonate lithium dropped significantly. The fundamental situation has not changed much. Upstream lithium salt producers are highly motivated to start production due to high prices, and the warehouse - receipt inventory in the futures market continues to rise. The change in the export tax - rebate policy has triggered an expectation of "rush to export", and the market remains optimistic about the demand in the first quarter. However, the new - energy vehicle market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the high - frequency data in January has shown a significant decline. In 2026, new production capacities of material manufacturers will be put into operation on a large scale. There will be rigid - demand purchasing support after the lithium price drops. In the short term, the upward trend of the price will slow down under the influence of capital and market sentiment. Wait for the opportunity to go long after a sufficient correction [5]. Price Changes | Product | Price Index | Unit | Price as of January 16th | Price on January 9th | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spodumene | 6%CIF | USD/ton | 2,250 | 1,948 | 15.50% [6] | | | African SC 5% | USD/ton | 1,750 | 1,630 | 7.36% [6] | | Lithium Mica | ≥2.5% | CNY/ton | 6,050 | 5,600 | 8.04% [6] | | Lithium Metal | ≥99% | CNY/ton | 875,000 | 725,000 | 20.69% [6] | | Carbonate Lithium | Battery - Grade | CNY/ton | 157,000 | 140,000 | 12.14% [6] | | | Industrial - Grade | CNY/ton | 155,000 | 138,000 | 12.32% [6] | | Lithium Hydroxide | Battery - Grade | CNY/ton | 150,000 | 135,000 | 11.11% [6] | | | Industrial - Grade | CNY/ton | 142,500 | 125,000 | 14.00% [6] | | Lithium Hexafluorophosphate | | CNY/ton | 153,000 | 156,000 | - 1.92% [6] | | Ternary Materials | 523 | CNY/ton | 177,400 | 166,400 | 6.61% [6] | | | 622 | CNY/ton | 175,650 | 159,650 | 10.02% [6] | | | 811 | CNY/ton | 193,800 | 181,800 | 6.60% [6] | | | 111 | CNY/ton | 168,250 | 157,250 | 7.00% [6] | | Ternary Precursors | 523 | CNY/ton | 103,725 | 101,255 | 2.44% [6] | | | 622 | CNY/ton | 96,350 | 93,120 | 3.47% [6] | | | 811 | CNY/ton | 116,750 | 113,465 | 2.90% [6] | | Lithium Iron Phosphate | Energy - Storage Type | CNY/ton | 54,100 | 49,700 | 8.85% [6] | | | Power Type | CNY/ton | 56,100 | 51,800 | 8.30% [6] | | Iron Phosphate | | CNY/ton | 11,210 | 11,020 | 1.72% [6] | | Lithium Cobalt Oxide | 4.35v | CNY/ton | 400,000 | 391,000 | 2.30% [6] | | Lithium Manganate | Capacity Type | CNY/ton | 56,500 | 53,000 | 6.60% [6] | | | Power Type | CNY/ton | 57,500 | 54,000 | 6.48% [6] | | Artificial Anode Materials | High - End | CNY/ton | 53,500 | 53,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Mid - End | CNY/ton | 27,500 | 27,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Low - End | CNY/ton | 20,000 | 20,000 | 0.00% [6] | | Natural Anode Materials | High - End | CNY/ton | 50,000 | 50,000 | 0.00% [6] | | | Mid - End | CNY/ton | 31,000 | 31,000 | 0.00% [6] | | | Low - End | CNY/ton | 21,250 | 21,250 | 0.00% [6] | | Electrolytes | Lithium Iron Phosphate | CNY/ton | 35,500 | 35,500 | 0.00% [6] | | | Ternary/Conventional Power Type | CNY/ton | 37,250 | 37,250 | 0.00% [6] | Market Review - As of January 16th, the LC2605 contract closed at 146,200 yuan per ton, a 1.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 157,000 yuan per ton, a 12% increase from last week. The basis changed from discount to premium, and the open interest of the main contract was 420,000. This week, the main contract hit a new high. Affected by the news of canceling the export tax - rebate subsidy for lithium batteries over the weekend, the market was optimistic about the expectation of rush to export. With the pre - positioning of demand and the slow release of upstream production, the price soared to 174,000 yuan. However, the sales volume of the terminal new - energy vehicle market was average in January, and overseas production resumed. The price of carbonate lithium dropped significantly due to weakening expectations [7]. Production Situation Carbonate Lithium - As of January 16th, the production of carbonate lithium was 24,510 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 710 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 54.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. A few lithium salt producers carried out maintenance plans this week, leading to a slight decline in production. However, the industry operating rate remained above 50%, and the ramping - up of new production capacities continued to contribute to the increase. South American lithium salt producers will resume partial production at the end of January, and the supply is expected to be loose [9]. Lithium Hydroxide - As of January 16th, the production of lithium hydroxide was 6,715 tons, a week - on - week increase of 325 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 36.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.79%. This week, the raw material prices fluctuated greatly, and downstream buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude. However, the profit inversion of upstream enterprises restricted their enthusiasm for starting production, and some production lines were still under maintenance. The market remained in a tight - balance state [11]. Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 97,203 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,174 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 85.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91%. The continuous decline in the production of lithium iron phosphate this week was mainly due to the maintenance of individual large factories and production line technological transformation, combined with the obvious cost pressure on small and medium - sized manufacturers, which actively reduced the device load [14]. Ternary Materials - The raw material prices of ternary materials were high, and enterprises slightly reduced production [16]. Other Cathode Materials - The downstream purchasing willingness of other cathode materials was low, and the industry produced according to sales [23]. Inventory Situation Carbonate Lithium Industry - As of January 15th, the total inventory of the carbonate lithium industry was 109,679 tons, a decrease of 263 tons from last week. The warehouse - receipt inventory was 27,458 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,098 tons. The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased again. The inventory of downstream material manufacturers increased, which indirectly confirmed that downstream buyers still maintained rigid - demand purchasing in the traditional off - season. With the rapid price increase, the warehouse - receipt inventory continued to increase [30]. Downstream Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 30,786 tons, a decrease of 2,313 tons from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate continued to decline. Downstream cell manufacturers maintained a stable purchasing rhythm. However, due to the high current cost price, downstream buyers only maintained the necessary safety inventory. The operating load of the lithium iron phosphate industry decreased, mainly consuming the existing inventory [33]. Other Downstream Industries - In the off - season of demand, the shipment of ternary materials was not smooth, and the inventory increased slightly. The inventory situations of manganese acid lithium, cobalt acid lithium, and ternary precursors also had corresponding changes [35][37][39]. Cost and Profit Situation Cost Side - As of January 16th, the price of African SC 5% lithium ore was $1,750 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $120 per ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,250 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $368 per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 6,050 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan per ton. Although the import of lithium ore was abundant, the production capacity of lithium salt producers was full, and the high completion rate of Spring Festival inventory replenishment supported the raw - material prices at a high level [44]. Carbonate Lithium - As of January 16th, the production cost of carbonate lithium was 115,364 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 11,560 yuan. The profit of the carbonate lithium industry was 39,668 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 8,593 yuan. The average production cost of the carbonate lithium industry increased week - on - week due to the significant increase in lithium - ore prices. The profit margins of integrated and salt - lake enterprises expanded significantly, but the profits of processing enterprises relying on external raw - material procurement were meager, and the internal differentiation was relatively serious [46]. Lithium Hydroxide - As of January 16th, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 108,189 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,132 yuan. The profit of the lithium hydroxide industry was 40,022 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 11,047 yuan. This week, the prices of raw materials and carbonate lithium increased significantly, further increasing the cost - side pressure of lithium hydroxide production. The price of lithium hydroxide was affected by carbonate lithium, with scarce low - price goods, and the industry profit further expanded [48]. Downstream Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of January 16th, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 55,041 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,609 yuan. The loss of lithium iron phosphate was

Group 1 - The company has successfully completed the trial production line for lithium hydroxide at the Chaka site, with a capacity of 3,300 tons [2] - The company confirmed that the production line has met design parameters and is feasible for transitioning to stable commercial production [2] - Relevant procedures for further development are currently being advanced [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. The report seems to be a comprehensive data - driven analysis of the lithium carbonate market, presenting various data on futures, spot, basis, and cost - profit aspects. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - The strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 68.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 94.9% [3] - The closing price of the main contract is 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan (3.02%) daily and up 19,640 yuan (13.80%) weekly. The trading volume is 589,019 lots, down 19,158 lots (3.15%) daily and up 168,612 lots (40.11%) weekly. The open interest is 452,583 lots, down 7,698 lots (1.67%) daily and down 53,937 lots (10.65%) weekly [4] - The closing price of the weighted - index contract is 162,418 yuan/ton, down 5,025 yuan (3.00%) daily and up 19,892 yuan (13.96%) weekly. The trading volume is 1,086,844 lots, down 95,128 lots (8.05%) daily and up 349,719 lots (47.44%) weekly. The open interest is 886,318 lots, down 15,033 lots (1.67%) daily and down 77,914 lots (8.08%) weekly [4] - The price differences between different contracts (e.g., LC2605 - LC2607, LC2605 - LC2609, LC2607 - LC2609) have different daily and weekly changes [4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 26,898 lots, up 928 lots (3.57%) daily and up 3,757 lots (16.24%) weekly [4] 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium ore segment, prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene from different sources have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest average price of 2 - 2.5% lithium mica is 4,990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.81%) daily [22] - In the lithium salt segment, prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.24%) daily [22] - For cell materials, prices of some materials increased while others remained unchanged. For example, the price of energy - storage lithium iron phosphate is 57,190 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan (1.69%) daily [23] - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.978, up 0.0033 (0.05%) [23] - The differences between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and domestic prices also have corresponding daily and weekly changes [26] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and the near - month contract of lithium carbonate are presented in the form of historical charts [29][30] - Different lithium carbonate brands have different basis quotes for the LC2601 contract, with some having zero daily changes and some having non - zero changes [31] - The total number of warehouse receipts is 26,898 lots, up 928 lots. Different storage locations have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35] 3.4 Cost - Profit Data - The production profits of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) are presented in historical charts [37] - The production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticizing method and smelting method are presented in historical charts [37] - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are presented in historical charts [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - Yahua Group has successfully transported lithium ore from Zimbabwe back to China for the production of lithium hydroxide, indicating a stable and increased supply of raw materials, which may enhance production capacity and affect market dynamics negatively for lithium hydroxide prices [1][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - Yahua Group announced on January 13 that it has returned a bulk shipment of lithium ore from Zimbabwe for domestic production [1][4]. - The return of lithium ore is expected to stabilize and potentially increase the production of lithium hydroxide, which is crucial for battery manufacturing [1][4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The increase in raw material supply is likely to enhance market expectations for lithium hydroxide supply, potentially leading to downward pressure on spot prices due to alleviated shortages [2][5]. - The overall market sentiment is rated as slightly bearish (-1), as the substantial increase in supply is expected to negatively impact prices, despite not reaching an extreme level [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The first quarter of 2026 is identified as the optimal window for bullish positions on lithium carbonate, driven by a combination of supply lag, rigid demand, and low inventory levels [2][12]. Supply Dynamics - Limited supply growth is expected in the first quarter of 2026, which is a key support for the tight supply-demand balance. Major domestic mining and resumption projects are primarily expected to contribute from March onwards, making effective supply formation difficult in the first quarter [13]. - In January, some older production lines underwent annual maintenance, further restricting supply growth, while certain companies faced raw material shortages, resulting in lower-than-expected inventory accumulation in January and February [13]. Demand Factors - Traditionally, the first quarter is a low season for end-user demand; however, due to the rigid delivery of energy storage orders, demand is expected to be strong. Demand is projected to gradually recover in the second quarter with the rollout of new projects in electric vehicles and energy storage [15]. - Despite earlier market concerns about reduced demand from phosphate lithium producers, recent survey data indicates that January production is expected to decrease by only about 6%, which is at the lower end of expectations, highlighting strong demand support [15]. Inventory Situation - Current demand has increased by 42% year-on-year, yet domestic lithium carbonate inventory remains flat compared to the same period last year. Smelter inventories have dropped to the lowest levels recorded, and downstream inventories have significantly decreased since October, with available inventory days falling below 10 days [18]. - Traders are attempting to replenish stocks, but due to hedging positions locking liquidity, they can only wait for downstream acceptance of higher prices [18]. Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Following the holiday period, lithium carbonate prices have rapidly increased to 150,000 yuan per ton, with no significant negative feedback from downstream sectors. Even if phosphate lithium producers plan to reduce production due to processing fee negotiations, the actual reduction is expected to be limited [21]. - Market sentiment remains bullish, with significant increases in lithium carbonate futures positions observed post-holiday. Short positions have largely been liquidated, and new hedging positions are cautious due to unclear supply release schedules [21]. Export Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced changes to export tax policies, effective April 1, 2026, which will lower the export tax rate for battery products from 9% to 6% and eliminate the tax entirely from January 1, 2027 [16]. - This extended window for reduced export taxes may lead to increased export activity [16].