| 碳酸锂日评20251208:偏弱震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-11-28 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 90680.00 | 90680.00 | 94560.00 | 0.00 | | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 90760.00 | 92260.00 | 94640.00 | -1,500.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 92480.00 | 94700.00 | -1,460.00 | 1 | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 92480.00 | 94800.00 | -1,460.00 | | | 收盘价 砖酸锂期货 成交堂(手) | 92160.00 461507.00 | 93700.00 663458.00 | 96420.00 580962.00 | -1.540.00 -201,951.00 | | | 活跃合约 | | | | | | | (元/吨) ...

Core Insights - Ganfeng Lithium stated that producing one ton of lithium sulfide theoretically requires 0.3 tons of metallic lithium or 1.6 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [1] Group 1 - The consumption of lithium raw materials in actual industrial production may vary based on the form of raw materials used and the preparation process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port will provide significant advantages for Hainan Mining's lithium ore import business and lithium battery material production and sales due to favorable policies and tax incentives [2]. Group 1: Policy Advantages - The Hainan Free Trade Port will implement a regulatory model of "one line open, one line controlled, and free within the island," which will benefit the company's operations [2]. - The company will benefit from a series of policy incentives, including visa-free access for 85 countries, tax exemptions for processing and value-added activities, and a "double 15%" income tax rate [2]. Group 2: Business Impact - The company's lithium hydroxide project will enjoy exemptions from import tariffs, value-added tax, and consumption tax on raw materials [2]. - The company will closely monitor the policy announcements related to the Hainan Free Trade Port to seize favorable investment opportunities in the industry [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks due to the steady growth of supply, the slowdown of demand growth, and the decrease in the inventory reduction amplitude, with the overall market supply - demand balance being slightly loose [3][34][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On December 2, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 96,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the basis strengthened from - 3,140 yuan/ton to - 2,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 680 yuan. The open interest expanded to 552,239 lots, an increase of 8,606 lots or 1.58%, while the trading volume shrank to 454,290 lots, a decrease of 81,185 lots or 15.16% [1][31][37] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 8,805 yuan/ton and 4,825 yuan/ton respectively, with stable cost support. The capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%, but new production lines were gradually put into operation, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month [2][31][39] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials increased slightly. The sales volume of new energy vehicles from November 1 - 23 increased by 3% year - on - year, but it is predicted that the sales volume in December may decline slightly. The cell production was at a high level but decreased month - on - month, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, the demand remained stable but the growth momentum weakened [2][32][39] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 115,968 physical tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons or 2.07% from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend. It is expected that the de - stocking amplitude in December will slow down [2][31][40] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On December 2, 2025, compared with December 1, the lithium carbonate main contract price slightly declined, the basis strengthened, the open interest increased, and the trading volume decreased. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged. The prices of some cathode materials and batteries also had corresponding changes [5] Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On December 2, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, while the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly. The downstream material factories mainly relied on long - term contracts and customer - supplied channels, and the market transactions were light. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were ongoing. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase, and the inventory will continue to be reduced but at a slower pace [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From November 1 - 23, the retail and wholesale volumes of new energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the cumulative retail and wholesale volumes this year also increased significantly year - on - year [7] - **Industry News**: On November 26, Chuanneng Power mentioned in an institutional survey that its lithium mining project had basically reached the designed production capacity [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted to reach 98,210 physical tons next month, a 3.00% increase [8][9]. - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase [8]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 95,970 yuan/ton, a 2.68% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 94,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a loss of 4,016 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The fundamentals are neutral; on December 2nd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,660 tons, a 3.72% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 115,968 tons, a 2.07% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 92,980 - 96,740 yuan/ton. The bullish factors include the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. The bearish factor is the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [9][11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week's production decreased slightly, but November's production and next - month's predicted production increased. The cost of spodumene concentrate increased, while the cost of lepidolite remained unchanged. The salt lake side has cost advantages [8][9]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials sample enterprises increased last week [8]. - Cost: Most production methods are in a loss - making state, except for the salt lake side [9]. - Market Indicators: Fundamentals are neutral, basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, disk is bullish, and main positions are bearish [9]. - Expectation: The price will fluctuate within a certain range, affected by both bullish and bearish factors [9][11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium compounds, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have different degrees of rise and fall. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.50%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.05% [15]. - **Supply - Related Data** - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has changed, and the production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore in different periods are presented. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in each month [24][25][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production, import, and export of lithium carbonate in different periods are provided, and the supply - demand balance also varies from month to month. The production and import of lithium carbonate in November 2025 increased compared with the previous period [30][31][37]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of lithium hydroxide are shown, and the supply - demand balance is also analyzed monthly [39][40][43]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost, profit, and processing cost composition of various lithium compounds, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are presented. Different production methods and materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, shows different trends of increase and decrease [53][55]. - **Demand - Related Data** - **Lithium Batteries**: The price, production, sales, and export of lithium batteries are presented, as well as the inventory and winning bids of energy - storage batteries [56][57][59]. - **Ternary Precursors**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Materials**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials are provided [67][68][71]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [73][74][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles are shown, as well as the retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index [81][82][86].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 30 日 碳酸锂：需求季节性走弱叠加大厂复产加速， 上方承压 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru028781@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：重心上移，高波动延续 碳酸锂期货合约本周延续高波动趋势，整体重心有所上移。2601 合约收于 94640 元/吨，周环比上涨 3620 元/吨，2605 合约收于 96420 元/吨，周环比上涨 4460 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 1450 元/吨至 93750 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2601 合约）下跌 2170 元/吨至-890 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-1200 元/吨， 周环比下跌 740 元/吨。2601-2605 合约价差-1780 元/吨，环比走弱-840 元/吨。 供需基本面：去库不及预期，大厂复产渐进 政策：工信部指出要认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的决策部署，依法依规治理动力和储 能电池产业非理性竞争。 原料：11 月 26 日，自然资源部 ...

Research Views - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures, the 2605 contract, dropped 1.68% to 95,820 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan/ton to 93,300 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 450 yuan/ton to 90,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 400 yuan/ton to 81,730 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased 269 tons to 26,781 tons [3]. - In terms of news, the non-oil and gas mining right change registration (including renewal) of the Zunkuoli - Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, has entered the acceptance stage. Yahua Group stated in an institutional research on November 26 that the company's current comprehensive designed lithium salt production capacity is 99,000 tons, and the new 30,000 - ton high - grade lithium salt material production line of Ya'an Lithium Industry is under commissioning. It is expected that the company's comprehensive lithium salt production capacity will reach nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025. On November 27, Atlantic Lithium said that despite the delay in Ghana's approval and the difficult lithium price trend this year, the company will enter 2026 in a strong position [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production decreased 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased 20 tons to 13,364 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased 50 tons to 3,021 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased 65 tons to 2,245 tons. In October, lithium carbonate imports increased 22% to 24,000 tons, with imports from Argentina increasing 5% to 7,000 tons and imports from Chile increasing 37% to 15,000 tons. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials increased 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased 71 tons to 19,361 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate increased 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and the inventory increased 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 15 consecutive weeks to 116,000 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, the inventory in other links increased 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [3]. - The post - market news yesterday may affect market sentiment, but before the increase in supply is reflected, the weekly inventory is expected to continue to decline. From the perspective of future market trends, the bullish sentiment may gradually weaken marginally. The current weighted contract positions are still large, and there is still a risk of continued position reduction and position transfer, which will have a greater impact on the futures price. Attention should be paid to whether the demand from the power end affected by pre - consumption and the strong energy storage end exceeds expectations, or wait for the opportunity to go long after over - decline or the release of negative news [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 95,820 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 93,960 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,126 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,665 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,590 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - In the lithium carbonate market, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 81,730 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 86,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 76,230 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 10.65 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Regarding price spreads, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 11,570 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spread between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,350.37 yuan/ton, down 418 yuan [5]. - In the market of precursors and cathode materials, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 105,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 94,425 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 86,925 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 105,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 156,325 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 144,300 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 145,825 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 161,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 39,230 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy storage) was 37,675 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 34,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 41,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 39,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 377,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - In the battery market, the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.499 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.52 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.64 yuan/piece, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.341 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.36 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 7.45 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.304 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) and amblygonite (7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - It includes charts of metal lithium prices, average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide prices, and hexafluorophosphate lithium prices from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][13]. Price Spreads - There are charts showing the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][19]. Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts display the prices of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][26]. Lithium Battery Prices - The report shows charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31]. Inventory - There are charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from April to November 2025 [35][37]. Production Costs - A chart presents the production profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,.,

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 364% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 417% [4][6]. - The non-recurring net profit was -29 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 96% [4][6]. - The recovery in lithium prices has led to improved profitability for the company, which is expected to continue as it enhances its resource self-sufficiency and optimizes costs [6]. Summary by Sections Production and Cost Management - The C-O salt lake is accelerating production, with an expected output of 30,000 to 35,000 tons of LCE for the full year 2025, and a long-term operational cost target of approximately 65,430 yuan per ton of LCE [6]. - The company plans to add a demonstration line for 5,000 tons of LCE to implement direct lithium extraction technology, which may be further applied in the second phase of a 40,000-ton LCE project [6]. Project Developments - The Goulamina lithium concentrate project in Mali, with a capacity of 506,000 tons, is set to commence production in December 2024, with promising profitability due to resource scale and quality advantages [6]. - The Mariana salt lake's first phase of a 20,000-ton lithium chloride project began production in February 2025, with stable supply expected in the second half of 2025 [6]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading resource player with a faster increase in self-sufficiency and continuous cost optimization, which is expected to enhance profitability [6]. - The company is also increasing its focus on battery business, holding the largest global capacity for lithium metal, and is anticipated to benefit from the future demand for solid-state batteries [6].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the lithium carbonate production remains at a high level. High prices intensify the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot market transactions are slow. The power demand has shown signs of peaking, and the game between bulls and bears has intensified. The trading is overcrowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely and may fall after a sharp rise. Production enterprises can conduct selling hedging at high prices. [1] Summary According to Related Data Carbonate Lithium Futures - **Price Changes**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to November 17, 2025. For example, the near - month contract closed at 93,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,720 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 1,487,724 lots (+120,805), and the open interest was 484,357 lots (-78,597). [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased by 342 tons to 26,611 tons. [1] Lithium Ore and Related Products - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores increased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,056 US dollars/ton, an increase of 32 US dollars/ton. [1] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds increased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 87,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton. [1] Downstream Product Prices - **Cathode Materials**: The prices of some cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, while the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged. For example, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 142,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. [1] - **Anode Materials**: The price of artificial graphite (high - end) remained unchanged. [1] - **Electrolyte**: The prices of electrolytes for different applications remained unchanged. [1] - **Cobalt - Related Products**: The prices of cobalt - related products such as electrolytic cobalt and cobalt sulfate remained unchanged. [1] Inventory Situation - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons last week. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other parts increased. [1] News and Policies - **Futures Transaction Fee Adjustment**: Starting from the trading time on November 20, 2025, the trading fee standard of the LC2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures is adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount, and the intraday flat - today trading fee standard is also adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount. [1] - **Sigma Lithium Production Suspension**: Sigma Lithium suspended the production of its flagship project in Brazil from late September to October to upgrade mining equipment. The company plans to complete the expansion by the end of 2026, increasing the total capacity from 245,000 tons/year to 520,000 tons/year. [1]

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司已取得900万吨开采许可，请问预计什么时候达到 满产？满产后公司碳酸锂生产规模为多大？ 永兴材料（002756.SZ）11月18日在投资者互动平台表示，公司矿山改扩建项目相关工作正在积极推进 中。目前，公司锂电新能源业务碳酸锂产能为3万吨/年。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...