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集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 10:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened higher and fluctuated. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. Some investors gradually closed their positions as the National Day holiday approached. The futures price is likely to continue its oscillating trend in the short term. For the 12 - contract, investors can continue to look for low - buying opportunities and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or intraday short - term operations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1250 - 1350 to lock in profits [2]. - For those who want to book cabins according to orders and prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1000 - 1100 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradiction - As of the close, EC contract prices rebounded. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 2590 lots to 20182 lots, the short positions decreased by 1924 lots to 21185 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 8470 lots to 44801 lots (bilateral). The rise in the spot cabin quotation and the closing of positions by some short - position investors led to the rebound in the futures price valuation. Attention should be paid to the risk of capital fluctuations before the holiday this week [3]. 利多解读 - Maersk's spot cabin quotation for the European Line in mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, and MSC's quotation for the European Line also rebounded slightly in the following two weeks [4]. 利空解读 - On September 24, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced the implementation of a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products starting from August 1. There are also tariff exemptions for certain drug compounds, aircraft parts, and other imported goods. The daily change in the EC basis shows a decline in most contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 25, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts showed different degrees of increase, with EC2510 up 5.26% daily and 6.07% weekly, EC2512 up 5.10% daily and 8.38% weekly, etc. The price spreads between different contracts also changed [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotation - On October 17, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP opening quotations from Shanghai to Rotterdam rebounded compared with the previous week. In the following two weeks, MSC's 20GP and 40GP total quotations also rebounded slightly. However, CMA CGM's 20GP and 40GP total quotations from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased compared with the same period [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - Various global freight rate indexes showed a downward trend, such as the SCFIS European Line down 12.87% to 1254.92 points, the SCFIS US West Line down 11.57% to 1193.64 points, etc. [9]. Global Major Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of major ports changed on September 24 compared with September 23. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.706 days to 1.773 days, while the waiting time at Singapore Port increased by 0.633 days to 1.167 days [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - The speeds of different types of container ships changed on September 24 compared with September 23. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 1 to 15 [23].
广发期货《金融》日报-20250924
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 05:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, such as price differences, basis, ratios, and related fundamental data, but do not explicitly state a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences and Percentiles**: On September 24, 2025, the F and H futures-spot price differences were 35.98 and 5.49 respectively, with changes of 2.63 and 4.66 from the previous day. The IC and IM futures-spot price differences were -240.11 and -281.07, with changes of -28.19 and -21.79 [1]. - **Inter - period Price Differences**: There are various inter - period price differences for IF, H, IC, and IM, such as the "next month - current month" price differences and "far month - current month" price differences, with different historical percentile rankings and changes from the previous day [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: There are multiple cross - variety ratios, like the ratios of IC/IH, IF/IH, and IM/IF, with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: On September 23, 2025, the IRR for TS basis was 1.4835, TF basis was 1.4550, T basis was 1.4427, and TL basis was 1.2299, with corresponding changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2]. - **Inter - period Price Differences**: There are different inter - period price differences for TS, TF, T, and TL, such as "current quarter - next quarter" and "next quarter - far quarter", with historical percentile rankings and changes [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Differences**: Cross - variety price differences like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T are provided, with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, the AU2512 contract closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous day. The AG2512 contract closed at 10349 yuan/kg, up 0.31%. The COMEX gold and silver futures also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis values of gold and silver, such as "gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract" and "silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract", are provided, along with historical percentile rankings. Ratios like COMEX gold/silver and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver are also given [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Information on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate is provided. Inventory data for gold and silver in domestic and foreign exchanges, as well as ETF holdings, are also presented [5]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The SCFI (US East) and SCFI (US West) had significant price drops. The futures prices of various EC contracts also changed, with the basis of the main contract increasing significantly [9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased, while the number of port calls increased. Some overseas economic indicators, such as the eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI, showed positive changes [9].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures (EC) first declined and then slightly increased in a volatile manner. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined to varying degrees. Near the National Day holiday, some investors gradually closed their positions, and the trading sentiment was relatively calm. The spot cabin quotes of major shipping companies on the European line continued to decline, and the futures price valuation decreased slightly. In the short term, the futures price is likely to continue the volatile trend, and low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract can be continuously monitored, with an overall approach of waiting and watching or quick in - and - out trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with positions but full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate decline, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at the entry range of 1100 - 1200 [2]. - For those with empty positions and hoping to prevent freight rate increase and fix booking costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at the entry range of 900 - 1000 [2]. Core Contradiction - The EC2510 contract saw a reduction of 2531 long positions to 23345 and a reduction of 2882 short positions to 24440. The trading volume decreased by 16714 to 34452 (bilateral). The spot cabin quotes of major shipping companies on the European line continued to decline, and the futures price valuation decreased slightly. The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract can be monitored [3]. 利多解读 - Israel will prevent the "Global Resilience Fleet" from reaching the Gaza Strip, which may have an impact on shipping in the region [4]. 利空解读 - MSC and CMA CGM continued to lower the recent spot cabin quotes on the European line, and the market cargo volume was relatively insufficient. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different trends for different contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - The closing prices, daily and weekly changes, and spreads of different EC contracts (EC2510, EC2512, etc.) are presented, showing different price trends and spread changes [7]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On October 2, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route was $875, up $10 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $1470, up $20. MSC's 20GP total quote decreased by $60 to $890, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $100 to $1490. Hapag - Lloyd's 20GP total quote was adjusted down by $50 to $935, and the 40GP total quote was adjusted down by $100 to $1435 [9]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX comprehensive freight rate indices for European and US - West routes all showed declines, with the SCFIS European route down 12.87%, the SCFIS US - West route down 11.57%, etc. [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - The waiting times of ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian decreased on September 23 compared with September 22, while the waiting times of Long Beach and Savannah increased [16]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships all decreased on September 23 compared with September 22, and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages decreased from 25 to 15 [24].
亚洲赴美国集装箱运量8月增4%,中国出发减少
日经中文网· 2025-09-23 09:24
Key Points - The volume of goods transported from Southeast Asia and South Asia has seen significant growth, with Vietnam increasing by 40%, Thailand by 16%, Sri Lanka by 77%, India by 33%, and Singapore by 21% [4] - Conversely, the volume of goods transported from mainland China has decreased by 6%, Japan by 7%, South Korea by 10%, and Taiwan by 3% [4] - According to Descartes Datamyne, the volume of sea containers shipped from Asia to the U.S. in August increased by 4% year-on-year, reaching 1,862,590 TEUs, although it decreased by 3% compared to July [2] - The largest category of transported goods, furniture, grew by 5%, while six other categories, including plastics (up 15%) and machinery (up 3%), exceeded last year's levels [4] - The U.S. National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that container import volumes will decrease by 3.4% in 2025 compared to 2024, citing tariff policies as a significant factor for a slowdown in goods transportation by the end of the year [4]
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250922
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:57
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened higher and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. The short - term futures prices are likely to continue the oscillatory trend, and low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract can be continuously monitored, with an overall approach of waiting and watching or quick in - and - out trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor during the peak season, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and an entry range of 1100 - 1200 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book shipping space based on order situations, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to pre - determine the shipping space booking cost. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and an entry range of 900 - 1000 [2]. Core Contradiction - As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 846 lots to 26004 lots, short positions increased by 334 lots to 27322 lots, and trading volume increased by 15727 lots to 51358 lots (bilateral). After the futures prices, especially the prices of the main contract, had basically maintained a large decline in the previous two weeks and reached a short - term low, they rebounded at the low level today as the current spot cabin quotes of mainstream shipping companies on the European line were basically stable. As it is the last week before the holiday, the risks brought by pre - holiday capital fluctuations also need to be monitored this week [3]. 利多解读 - The Israeli military stated that after about two weeks of intensive preparation, the troops of the 36th Division have started to enter Gaza City as part of the "Chariot of Gideon 2" operation to expand the scope of operations. In addition, the Israeli military also said that in recent days, under the leadership of the divisional firepower command post, the Israel Defense Forces carried out strikes on dozens of military targets in the Gaza Strip to separate the combat areas and allow ground troops to enter the area [4]. 利空解读 - Evergreen and ONE continued to lower the current spot cabin quotes on the European line for early October. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different degrees of decline for each contract [5]. Price and Spread - The closing prices and price changes of each EC contract on September 22, 2025 are as follows: EC2510 closed at 1093.7 points, with a daily increase of 4.11% and a weekly decrease of 5.97%; EC2512 closed at 1653.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.47% and a weekly decrease of 0.14%; EC2602 closed at 1573.6 points, with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly increase of 3.74%; EC2604 closed at 1275.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.94% and a weekly increase of 1.68%; EC2606 closed at 1454.5 points, with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 1.58%; EC2608 closed at 1609.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly increase of 0.33% [6]. Spot Cabin Quotes - According to the data of the "European Line Freight Rate Note" on the day, on October 6, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $840, and the total quote for 40GP was $1400, both remaining the same as the previous period. On October 2, for Evergreen Marine's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $950, a decrease of $50 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1500, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period. In early October, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $915, a decrease of $300 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP remained the same as the previous period at $1435 [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest values, previous values, price changes, and percentage changes of various global freight rate indexes are as follows: SCFIS for the European line decreased by 12.87% to 1254.92 points; SCFIS for the US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI for the European line decreased by 8.84% to $1052 per TEU; SCFI for the US - West line decreased by 30.97% to $1636 per FEU; XSI for the European line decreased by 0.40% to $1983 per FEU; XSI for the US - West line decreased by 4.0% to $2159 per FEU [9]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times and their daily changes at major global ports on September 21, 2025 are as follows: Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.706 days to 1.773 days; Shanghai Port decreased by 0.086 days to 1.596 days; Yantian Port increased by 0.072 days to 0.951 days; Singapore Port increased by 0.106 days to 0.548 days; Jakarta Port increased by 0.625 days to 2.114 days; Long Beach Port increased by 0.392 days to 2.048 days; Savannah Port increased by 0.280 days to 1.083 days [15]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity - The speeds and their daily changes of different container ship types on September 21, 2025 are as follows: for ships with a capacity of over 8000, the speed decreased by 0.148 knots to 15.516 knots; for ships with a capacity of over 3000, the speed increased by 0.143 knots to 14.827 knots; for ships with a capacity of over 1000, the speed decreased by 0.133 knots to 13.098 knots. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage decreased by 10 to 15 ships [24].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250919
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:57
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures (EC) is slightly weak in oscillation. The prices of all EC contracts have declined to varying degrees. The 10 - contract price has dropped to an appropriate range but still has some downside potential. It is recommended to hold high - position short orders but not to chase short positions excessively, and to mainly observe. For the 12 - contract, low - long opportunities around 1550 - 1600 points can be focused on, and overall, the strategy is to observe or make quick trades [3]. 3. Summary by Directory EC Risk Management Strategy - **Position Management**: For those who have positions but with full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to determine booking costs in advance, with a recommended buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradiction - The EC futures price oscillated slightly weakly. As of the close, all EC contracts declined. In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 1351 to 26470, short positions decreased by 1337 to 27460, and trading volume decreased by 23795 to 23360 (bilateral). The near - month contracts have fallen to relatively appropriate levels, but are still affected by factors such as the decline in spot cabin quotes of some shipping companies and commodity sentiment. The futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or decline slightly in the short term. The 10 - contract price has fallen to an appropriate range but still has some downside potential, while the 12 - contract can focus on low - long opportunities around 1550 - 1600 points [3]. 利多解读 - On the morning of the 17th local time, the Israeli military launched a military operation in the center of Gaza City [4]. 利空解读 - Shipping companies such as CMA CGM and Evergreen continued to lower the spot cabin quotes for European lines in late September or early October. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different trends for different contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - The closing prices of different EC contracts on September 19, 2025, showed different degrees of decline or increase compared to the previous period, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [7]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 29, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP total quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased compared to the previous period. CMA CGM's quotes in late September decreased, and Evergreen's quotes on October 1 decreased compared to the end - of - September sailing [9]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS European route index decreased by 8.06%, the SCFIS US - West route index increased by 37.67%. The SCFI European route decreased by 12.24%, the SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27%. Other indices also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. Global Main Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and others on September 18, 2025, changed compared to the previous day and the same period last year [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity in Suez Canal - The average speeds of container ships of different sizes on September 18, 2025, changed compared to the previous day and the same period last year. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased from 9 to 1 compared to the previous day [24].
集运早报-20250918
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price is still falling, but the decline is expected to slow down in October. The MSK opened the cabin for week 40 with a quote of $1400, a weekly decline of -$150, and for week 41, it also quoted $1400, remaining flat. [2] - The futures market declined significantly on Wednesday, with the bottom further breaking through. However, the market rose in the late session due to the news of the flat quote for week 41 from MSK. The basis for October was -20 points, and the spread between October and December was -562 (-58). [2] - There are multiple upward drivers in the future. For the December contract, be cautious when going long, as its valuation is neutral, and trading should be based on drivers. Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), the settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be higher, and in terms of valuation, the cost - effectiveness of long - allocating the February contract is higher than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a positive spread arbitrage between the February and April 2026 contracts can be appropriately arranged. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and changes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 futures contracts are provided, along with their basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1109.7, with a decline of -5.13%. [2] - **Futures Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (such as EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602) and their changes compared to previous days and weeks are presented. For instance, the spread of EC2510 - 2512 was -562.3, a decrease compared to the previous days. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Price Indexes**: The SCHIS SCFI (European line), CCFI, and NCFI spot price indexes are reported, including their latest values, changes compared to previous periods, and publication dates. The SCHIS SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 on September 15, 2025, with a decline of -8.06% compared to the previous period. [2] - **Recent European Line Quotations**: The current situation is that downstream customers are booking cabin space for the end of September and early October (week 39 - 41). The average quotation for week 39 was $1600 (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk), and the quotations for week 40 and week 41 from different shipping companies are also provided. [3] Other Information - **Related News**: News such as military actions in the Gaza Strip, US sanctions on armed organizations, and Iran's stance on sanctions and nuclear issues are mentioned. [4] - **Index Publication Notes**: It is noted that the XSI - C index is delayed by three working days. [5]
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250917
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 10:27
Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened higher and fluctuated, with a decline near the close. Except for EC2510, all other contract prices rose to varying degrees. In the short term, the near - month contract futures prices are likely to fluctuate and decline, and high - short opportunities should be monitored [3]. EC Risk Management Strategy Position Management - For those with existing positions but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), it is recommended to short container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. Cost Management - For those facing increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, and wanting to book cabins based on orders (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to lock in booking costs in advance [2]. Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) were affected by factors such as reaching short - term lows, sentiment, and the commodity market. The spot cabin quotes (except Maersk) were basically stable, but Maersk's European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume in the container shipping market was still relatively insufficient [3]. Long - Bias Interpretation - On September 14, Hamas suspended negotiations on a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees in the Gaza Strip with Israel [4]. Short - Bias Interpretation - Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, with the 20 - foot container price falling below $900. The basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of decline [5]. Price and Spread Data EC Contracts - On September 16, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1169.7, up 0.57% daily and down 7.80% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1673.8, up 1.06% daily and down 0.54% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1572.1, up 3.64% daily and 2.93% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1283.7, up 2.69% daily and 2.15% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1471.6, up 2.77% daily and 2.59% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1625.9, up 1.84% daily and 1.11% weekly [5][6]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different EC contracts also showed corresponding changes, such as EC2510 - 2602 being - 402.4, down 48.6 daily and 143.7 weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes Maersk Quotes - For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam routes, the 20GP and 40GP quotes showed different trends. For example, on October 1, the 20GP opening quote was $882, down $99 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1470, down $157 from the previous week [8]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS: European line decreased by 8.06% to 1440.24 points; SCFIS: US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI: European line decreased by 12.24% to $1154/TEU; SCFI: US - West line increased by 8.27% to $2370/FEU; XSI: European line decreased by 5.75% to $2083/FEU; XSI: US - West line increased by 10.0% to $2487/FEU; FBX composite freight index decreased by 2.82% to $1967/FEU [9]. Port Data Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian showed different changes on September 15 compared to September 14. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.251 days to 1.401 days [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships decreased slightly on September 15 compared to September 14, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained at 10 [22].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250916
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 06:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the container shipping index (European line) futures opened with a significant upward movement and then continued to fluctuate upwards. Except for EC2510, all other contracts saw varying degrees of price increases. The short - term price of the futures is likely to continue a volatile trend, and intraday short - term operations are recommended for unilateral trading. The partial contract price correction today is due to a short - term rebound from last week's low and the emotional bullishness caused by Hamas suspending negotiations with Israel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For position management, if one has existing positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and is worried about a decline in freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one wants to book cabins according to orders (short spot exposure), to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to determine the booking cost in advance [2]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - The container shipping index (European line) futures showed an upward trend today. In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 7 to 26383, short positions increased by 406 to 27849, and trading volume decreased by 8913 to 21070 (bilateral). The price correction of some contracts is due to a short - term rebound from last week's low and the emotional impact of Hamas suspending negotiations with Israel. The SCFIS European line's decline has slightly converged, and the futures price is likely to continue a volatile trend. Unilateral operations are best done intraday [3]. 3.3 Bullish Interpretation - On the 14th local time, Hamas senior official Tahir Nunu stated that Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel regarding a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [4]. 3.4 Futures Basis and Price - The futures underlying SCFIS European line continues to decline. The basis of EC2510 on September 16 was 277.14 points, with a daily decrease of 5.50 points and a weekly decrease of 6.32 points. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1163.1 points, with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly decrease of 9.35% [5]. 3.5 Spot Freight Quotes - According to the "European Line Freight Rate Note" on September 22, the total quote for 20GP of Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $997, and for 40GP was $1669, both remaining the same as the previous period [8]. 3.6 Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS European line index was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 126.22 points (- 8.06%) from the previous value; the SCFIS US - West line index was 1349.84 points, an increase of 369.36 points (37.67%) [9]. 3.7 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 15, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.652 days, an increase of 0.173 days from the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.632 days, an increase of 0.014 days [14]. 3.8 Ship Speed and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal - On September 15, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.666 knots, a decrease of 0.14 knots from the previous day; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor was 10, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [23].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250912
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 13:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to fluctuate downward. As of the close, all contract prices declined to varying degrees. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long positions by 948 lots to 26,451 lots and a reduction in short positions by 1,167 lots to 27,579 lots, with trading volume decreasing by 5,185 lots to 30,843 lots (bilateral). The mainstream shipping companies continued to lower freight rates during the current off - season, and the short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relatively downward trend. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - quick - out strategy, while also being cautious of potential rebounds after the futures prices reach short - term lows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling range of 1300 - 1400 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and rising transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradictions - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to decline. The reduction in long and short positions in the EC2510 contract and the decrease in trading volume, along with the continuous reduction of freight rate quotes by shipping companies, indicate that short - term futures prices are likely to remain in a downward trend. A quick - in - quick - out trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds [3]. Bullish Interpretations - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their Golden Week blank sailing plans [4]. Bearish Interpretations - ONE followed up by lowering the European line quotes for late September in the online cabin - booking quotes of shipping companies. - The attack on Qatar by Israel has led to a tense situation in the region, which may have an impact on the container shipping market [5]. EC Basis and Price Information - The basis of EC contracts shows different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 408.86 points, with a daily increase of 46.20 points and a weekly increase of 157.70 points [5]. - The closing prices of EC contracts also declined to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1157.6 points, with a daily decline of 5.02% and a weekly decline of 7.45% [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 22, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $5 to $997, and the 40GP total quote increased by $10 to $1669 compared to the previous period. - In mid - to - late September, ONE's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route decreased by $190 to $1354, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $300 to $1643 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS European route dropped by 11.68% to 1566.46 points; SCFIS US - West route dropped by 3.30% to 980.48 points. - SCFI European route decreased by 12.24% to $1154 per TEU; SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27% to $2370 per FEU [9]. Global Port Waiting Times - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian increased on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the waiting times at ports such as Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah decreased [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Numbers in Suez Canal - The average speeds of 8000 + and 3000 + container ships increased slightly on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the average speed of 1000 + container ships decreased slightly. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage increased from 8 to 21 [25].