受新订单持续疲软拖累，欧元区1月制造业活动连续第三个月处于收缩区间。 主要成员国表现严重分化，法国1月制造业产出增速为近四年来最快，而德国制造业活动则仍在萎缩区 间。（新华财经） 欧元区1月制造业PMI终值升至49.5，虽高于2025年12月的48.8，但仍连续第三个月处于50荣枯线下方， 表明行业持续萎缩。汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示："制造业确实出现了一些进展， 但速度缓慢。"作为整体指数的关键组成部分，制造业产出指数1月从2025年12月的48.9回升至50.5，重 新站上50荣枯线，显示产出温和增长。然而，新订单已连续第三个月下滑。尽管1月新订单降幅较2025 年12月有所缓和，但仍拖累了整体指数。投入成本涨幅创下三年来最快，主要受能源价格上涨推动。但 制造商定价能力有限，产出价格与上月相比基本未变，利润空间受到挤压。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term economic downward pressure has eased, and the market risk preference has recovered. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [15]. - Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The market is still digesting the negative impact of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage [13]. - A - shares had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. - For commodities, different varieties have different trends. For example, palm oil exports increased, and the inventory decreased; iron ore supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; coal prices are expected to be strong in February; and the prices of some energy - chemical products such as crude oil and asphalt are affected by geopolitical and market factors [37][34][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022, with an expected 48.5 and a previous value of 47.9. Fed Bostic expects no rate cuts in 2026. Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline, and the adjustment pressure of silver is greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will rise [11][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump called on Republicans to take control of the election process from the states. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was the highest since February 2022, which led to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations. Oracle launched a $25 billion bond issuance. The US government shutdown postponed the release of the January employment report. It is expected that the US stock market will maintain high - level volatility [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan on the day. The performance of treasury bond futures was slightly weak. It is recommended to moderately pay attention to the opportunity of shorting T [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - 276 steel enterprises completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. The 2 - month auto market will enter a stage of adjustment. Steel prices followed the decline of peripheral metals. The inventory of building materials has increased significantly, and the demand has weakened seasonally. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset, and the short - term decline space is expected to be limited [27][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On February 2, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. With the approach of the festival, the supply has shrunk, and some terminal enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the coal price to a certain extent. It is expected that the coal price will be strong in February, and attention should be paid to the temperature and new energy power generation in February [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The construction of the port and railway in Baffin Island was approved to support the expansion plan of Mary River Mine. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, and the demand is temporarily static. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of January 30, 2026, the domestic palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.51%. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31 increased by 17.93% month - on - month. After the macro - sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be continued to be arranged [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slightly faster than that of the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased. It is expected that the domestic and foreign futures prices will maintain a weak - oscillatory trend [38][40]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian copper. The copper price has dropped significantly due to the decline of precious metals. In the short term, the volatility is still relatively large. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [41][42][44]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the social inventory will increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see in the short - term and pay attention to the medium - term long - position opportunity [45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has dropped significantly. The domestic inventory has increased seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see temporarily and manage positions well [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the supply concentration is high. The short - term tin price is expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the supply recovery expectation and the improvement of consumption [51][52]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran said it was willing to close or suspend its nuclear program. Trump reached a trade agreement with India. The oil price has dropped significantly. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation [53][55]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. The short - term asphalt price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on whether there are sudden changes in the geopolitical situation [57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran hopes to avoid war with the US through diplomatic efforts. It is recommended to short the methanol 05 contract, with a stop - profit point of 2183 yuan/ton, and aggressive investors can lower the stop - profit to the previous box area of 2120 - 2150 yuan/ton [58][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has changed. The short - term styrene market has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait - and - see and reduce the risk exposure before the Spring Festival [61][63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory situation has not changed. The short - term rebound height of caustic soda is expected to be limited, and the disk may be under pressure again [64][65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the transaction is not good. The PVC market is under supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The current rise is mainly due to policy expectations, and the upward rebound height should not be overly optimistic, but it may still be relatively strong in the short - term under the catalysis of sentiment [66][67].

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights that public fiscal expenditure in 2025 focused on livelihood, technology, and environmental protection, with total public budget revenue at 21,604.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure reached 28,739.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1% [2] - The government fund budget revenue was 5,770.4 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 11.3% to 11,287.4 billion yuan [2] - Public fiscal income showed a negative growth primarily due to non-tax revenue, while tax revenue achieved positive growth, with major tax categories (VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax) transitioning from negative to positive growth [3] - Public fiscal expenditure in the livelihood sector accounted for over 38% of total expenditure, significantly higher than the average of the past five years, with a notable increase in technology spending [4] - The completion ratio for the national general public budget revenue was 98.3%, lower than the average of the past five years, while the expenditure completion ratio was 96.8% [4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with both production and new orders indices declining [8] - The production index fell by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index dropped by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, reflecting insufficient effective demand [9] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also decreased to 49.4%, with the construction sector experiencing a significant drop due to seasonal factors [10] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone, primarily due to the decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [10] Fund Research - The report notes that the public fund market experienced significant outflows, with a net outflow of 298.1 billion yuan from the ETF market, particularly from stock ETFs [12] - The average performance of equity funds showed a decline, with quantitative funds experiencing the largest drop of 1.10% [13] - New fund issuance increased, with 45 new funds launched, raising a total of 48.27 billion yuan, indicating a slight recovery in market interest [14]

科创赋能强"新"：AI领航培育新质生产力 作为广西发展新名片，人工智能正成为激活新质生产力的核心引擎。2025年，广西"人工智能+"行动成 效显著，"南A中心"90天建成投用，新签约AI产业项目208个，与8个东盟国家开展大模型研发合作。在 此基础上，2026年广西加码布局，三年安排450亿元专项支持AI产业发展，着力构建"北上广研发+广西 集成+东盟应用"发展路径。 具体来看，广西将推进南宁国际通信业务出入口局投产运营，建设广西人工智能学院、广西—东盟具身 智能中试训练场等科创平台，打造高质量数据集和东盟语料库；深化AI与制造业融合，开发面向糖 业、新能源汽车、有色金属等领域垂类大模型和智能体，拓展农业、文旅、社会治理等多场景应用；力 争新增80家自治区级智能工厂和数字化车间，人形机器人产量突破5000台。同时，广西将通过举办"百 业千企AI转型联合大赛"等，促进人工智能创新应用，打造面向东盟的人工智能国际合作高地。 产业筑基提"金"：构建现代化产业体系 2025年，广西工业对经济增长贡献率达35.1%，为经济发展筑牢"压舱石"。2026年，广西坚持智能化、 绿色化、融合化方向，聚焦产业升级，以补链强链延链 ...

美国1月份制造业扩张强于预期，受此提振，美国国债收益率和美元走高。根据美国供应管理学会的数 据，美国1月份采购经理人指数为52.6，高于12月份的47.9，该国经济连续第15个月扩张。市场此前的平 均预期为48.4。10年期美国国债收益率报4.275%，2年期美国国债收益率报3.572%。美元指数上涨 0.3%，扩大早盘涨幅，其中美元兑日圆上涨0.5%，兑欧元上涨0.4%。 ...

美国1月份制造业活动意外扩张，创下2022年以来最快增速，主要受到新订单和生产强劲增长的推动。 根据周一公布的数据，供应管理学会制造业指数从47.9升至52.6，超过彭博调查的所有经济学家的预 期。在经历近一年的收缩后，与需求相关的工厂活动激增是一个可喜的消息。指数持稳于荣枯分水岭上 方有助于进一步证明，在过去三年萎靡不振后，制造业正走向好转。ISM报告显示，新订单指标上升近 10点，产量指标也稳步提升，两者均指向近四年来最快增速。订单积压量自2022年以来首次增长，出口 订单也有所增多。 ...

2025年那会儿，欧美可没少折腾人民币升值这事。特朗普上台没多久，就开始挥舞关税大棒，2月先以 芬太尼啥的为由，对中国进口货加了10%的税，3月又来一轮同样的，4月还搞了个对等关税，总税率直 奔20%。 欧盟也没闲着，4月出一份经济报告，点名道姓说人民币该升值了，得平衡全球贸易啥的。国际货币基 金组织年中那报告里，也老提中国该让货币浮动大点。 华盛顿那些政客在国会里嚷嚷汇率操纵，华尔街分析师们写报告预测人民币得破7，搞得中国出口得下 滑10%以上。他们这思路，还带着点上世纪80年代对日本的味，以为升值就能让中国货贵了，工厂关 了，他们制造业就回来了。 可结果呢，中国贸易顺差不降反升，全年砸出1.19万亿美元的新高。在岸汇率从年初7.2左右，慢慢升到 年末6.98附近，升了4.4%。海关数据明明白白，前11个月顺差1.08万亿，全年1.19万亿。工厂订单没 少，出口到非美市场猛增，欧美那算盘落空了。 欧美施压汇率升，中国稳住基本盘 国际货币基金组织报告里，建议中国允许更大浮动，匹配经济实力啥的。他们觉得，中国外贸顺差太 大，得用升值压缩。结果中国没慌，人民银行每天设中间价，用逆周期因子稳住，避免大起大落。 汇率 ...

德国1月制造业PMI终值则从上月的47.0升至49.1，也略高于初值48.7，创下三个月高位，但仍低于50荣 枯线。就业水平继续下滑，反映企业正在进行重组且职位空缺未能填补。制造商对来年前景持乐观态 度，预期指数升至七个月高点。 意大利与西班牙1月制造业PMI分别为48.1和49.2，均处于萎缩状态，但意大利的下行势头略有缓和。 总体而言，欧元区制造业复苏步伐缓慢且不平衡，德国等核心经济体的持续疲软抵消了法国的增长，对 区域经济动能构成拖累。短期内，制造业强劲复苏的可能性较低。展望未来十二个月，企业对扩大生产 的态度较上月略显乐观。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京2月2日电受新订单持续疲软拖累，欧元区1月制造业活动连续第三个月处于收缩区间。 欧元区1月制造业PMI终值升至49.5，虽高于2025年12月的48.8，但仍连续第三个月处于50荣枯线下方， 表明行业持续萎缩。汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示："制造业确实出现了一些进展， 但速度缓慢。"作为整体指数的关键组成部分，制造业产出指数1月从2025年12月的48.9回升至50.5，重 新站上50荣枯线，显示产出温和增长。 ...

风险提示及免责条款 美国1月ISM制造业指数 52.6，预期 48.5，前值 47.9。 美国1月ISM制造业就业指数 48.1，预期 46，前 值 44.9。 美国1月ISM制造业新订单指数 57.1，前值 47.7。 美国1月ISM制造业物价支付指数 59，预期 59.3，前值 58.5。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Atkore Inc. is preparing to announce its Q1 2026 earnings, with analysts projecting an EPS of $0.64 and revenue of approximately $649.75 million [1] Financial Performance - In the previous quarter, Atkore reported an EPS of $0.69, which was below the consensus estimate of $1.30 by $0.61 [2] - The company generated revenue of $752 million, exceeding analysts' expectations, but faced a negative net margin of -0.53% [2] - Atkore achieved a return on equity of 12.98%, indicating some profitability challenges despite higher revenue [2] Financial Ratios - Atkore has a price-to-sales ratio of 0.82 and an enterprise value to sales ratio of 0.96, suggesting a cautious market valuation [3] - The company maintains a strong current ratio of 3.05 and a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65, indicating a stable financial position [3] Competitive Landscape - As Atkore prepares for its earnings release, it will be important to observe how the company addresses its challenges and competes with industry players like Eaton and Schneider Electric [4]