来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇10月22日｜中金发表报告，预计同程旅行第三季收入按年增9%至54.5亿元，核心OTA收入按年 增14%至45.9亿元；Non-IFRS净利润为10.2亿元。中金基本维持同程旅行2025全年收入和利润指引，核 心OTA收入按年增15%，Non-IFRS净利润33亿元；核心OTA业务中住宿、交通业务国内部分稳健增长， 海外部分贡献增量；其他业务中酒管业务维持高增长，且第四季完成对万达酒管的并购。中金维持对 其"跑赢行业"评级，目标价为28港元。 ...

Group 1 - The autumn travel boom among middle and primary school students in Hangzhou is still ongoing, with nearby cities like Ningbo, Shaoxing, and Wenzhou set to start their autumn breaks in November, potentially creating a 5-day "mini-holiday" when combined with weekends [1] - Data from various online travel companies indicates that flight bookings from Zhejiang in mid-November have nearly doubled year-on-year, with popular destinations including Beijing, Xining, Changsha, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [1][2] - The implementation of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools in Zhejiang has led to a ripple effect in travel patterns, with Hangzhou being a pioneer in this initiative since 2014 [1] Group 2 - In late October, the average flight price from Hangzhou dropped by nearly 40% compared to the "Double Festival" period, while average hotel prices decreased by 30% [2] - The top ten cities for hotel bookings in late October included Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Aba, Chongqing, Xi'an, Xiamen, and Guangzhou [2] - The autumn travel trend shows a distinct "off-peak" characteristic, revitalizing November, traditionally a low travel season, with destinations like Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai being the most popular during the autumn break in Foshan [2] Group 3 - The market department of Zhejiang New World International Tourism Co., Ltd. reported a nearly 20% year-on-year increase in inquiries for technology-themed educational travel products departing from Hangzhou in mid-November, particularly the "Six Little Dragons of Hangzhou" experience route [3] - Travel agencies in Hangzhou are actively optimizing technology and research travel itineraries, collaborating with local tech companies to create immersive experiences that combine tourism and hands-on learning [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecasts - For Q3 2025, the group expects a 9% year-on-year increase in total revenue to CNY 5.45 billion, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 14% to CNY 4.59 billion [2] - The hotel segment is anticipated to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a steady rise in the share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is expected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rapid growth in international ticket sales [2] - Other revenues are projected to increase by 34%, driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenues [2] Group 2: Annual Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 core OTA revenue growth forecast at 15%, supported by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The company is expected to achieve a Non-IFRS net profit of CNY 3.3 billion for 2025, aided by efficient cost control and enhanced monetization of international business [3]

Core Insights - The online travel industry is gearing up for a highly competitive Double Eleven shopping festival, with platforms like Fliggy and Ctrip leading the charge [1][4][5] - Fliggy has shown significant growth, with a 48% increase in GMV during the recent National Day holiday, raising expectations for its performance during Double Eleven [4][11] - The competition is intensifying, with various players including Meituan, Tongcheng, Douyin Life Services, and JD Travel also vying for market share [5][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market environment has led to a heightened sense of urgency among travel merchants, who view Double Eleven as a critical opportunity to boost sales after a lackluster summer season [8][10] - Many brands are adopting aggressive pricing strategies, with some referring to their prices as "lifesaving prices" rather than promotional prices [9][10] - The competition between Fliggy and Ctrip is particularly fierce, as both platforms aim to secure exclusive deals and attract high-value customers [5][11] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more strategic in their purchasing decisions, often waiting for the best deals during major sales events like Double Eleven [14][22] - There is a notable trend of consumers being patient and waiting for discounts, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior towards more calculated spending [21][24] - The demand for travel products remains strong, with many consumers actively looking for deals, even if they do not have specific travel plans in mind [18][24] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The success of platforms during Double Eleven will depend on their ability to effectively manage supply chains and collaborate with merchants [5][12] - Companies are increasingly planning their product offerings well in advance of the sales event, indicating a shift towards more strategic marketing approaches [11][23] - The interplay between platforms and merchants is crucial, as both parties must align their strategies to maximize sales during the promotional period [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Tongcheng Travel (00780) will experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, and UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue is projected to grow at a mid-teens level [1] - In the transportation segment, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts Tongcheng Travel (00780) to experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, but UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue growth is projected to be in the mid-teens percentage range [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Transportation Business - In terms of transportation services, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects Tongcheng Travel's core OTA revenue to achieve a 14% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, approaching the upper end of its previous guidance of 10%-15% [2] Revenue Insights - Despite normalized travel demand during the National Day holiday, Tongcheng's hotel revenue is expected to remain resilient, with accommodation revenue growth likely nearing the mid-teens percentage range [2] - In the transportation segment, third-quarter revenue is anticipated to achieve high single-digit year-on-year growth [2] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng Travel from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Tongcheng Travel's core OTA revenue will continue to grow steadily in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, and UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient, predicting accommodation revenue growth close to mid-teens level [1] - In terms of transportation business, UBS predicts that Tongcheng's revenue in Q3 will record high single-digit growth year-on-year [1] Group 2: Target Price and Rating - UBS has raised its target price for Tongcheng Travel from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The online travel industry is gearing up for a highly competitive Double Eleven shopping festival, with major players like Fliggy and Ctrip intensifying their strategies to capture market share [1][7][13] - Fliggy is under significant pressure to perform well this year, especially after its integration with Taobao, and has already seen a 48% increase in GMV during the National Day holiday [2][3][13] - Ctrip is also taking a more aggressive approach this year, indicating a shift in its strategy compared to previous years, as it aims to capitalize on the Double Eleven event [3][4][13] Industry Dynamics - The competition among platforms has reached a new peak, with Fliggy and Ctrip as the main contenders, while other players like Meituan, Tongcheng, Douyin Life Services, and JD Travel are also vying for a share of the market [7][10] - For merchants, participating in Double Eleven is seen as a crucial opportunity to gain visibility and drive sales, akin to how physical stores prepare for the Christmas season [8][9] - The current market environment has created a necessity for platforms and merchants to engage in aggressive pricing strategies, with many brands referring to their pricing as "rescue prices" to recover from previous losses [12][13] Consumer Behavior - Despite concerns about consumer spending, there is evidence that demand remains strong, with many consumers waiting for the right moment to make purchases during the Double Eleven sales [17][21] - Consumers are increasingly making early decisions about their travel plans, with many already bookmarking deals in anticipation of the sales [21][22] - The emotional aspect of marketing plays a significant role, as consumers are accustomed to waiting for the best deals, indicating that the right product at the right price will still attract buyers [21][22]

Core Insights - Ctrip Finance has launched a mortgage loan service through its fintech subsidiary, marking its entry into the mortgage loan sector traditionally dominated by state-owned banks and consumer finance companies [1][6] - The mortgage loan service operates by collaborating with third-party loan service providers, allowing Ctrip Finance to monetize its user traffic without incurring high costs or credit risks [2][3] Business Model - The mortgage loan service is referred to as "form business," where Ctrip Finance collects borrower information and provides it to financial institutions for customer acquisition and risk control [2] - Ctrip Finance leverages its platform to tap into a stable flow of potential borrowers, particularly those with real estate assets, to generate revenue through referral fees or profit sharing [2][3] Market Context - The mortgage loan market has seen a contraction among non-bank institutions, with several consumer finance companies exiting the sector due to rising costs and declining asset values [7][9] - Ctrip Finance's entry into the mortgage loan market is seen as a strategic move to capture high-quality customer segments amid a tightening market environment [6][8] Regulatory Environment - The implementation of new regulations governing internet lending has prompted a shift in the competitive landscape, with Ctrip Finance being listed among the approved platform operators for consumer finance companies [6][7] - The new regulations also clarify the cost structure for platform services, which may impact the pricing strategies of various players in the mortgage loan market [6][9] Competitive Landscape - The mortgage loan service is primarily supported by third-party intermediaries rather than traditional financial institutions, indicating a shift in how these services are delivered [4][5] - The competitive dynamics are influenced by the structural cost disadvantages faced by loan intermediaries compared to banks, which may limit their ability to attract high-quality borrowers [8][9][10]