1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth in August continued to slow down, with industrial production, consumption, and investment all showing signs of weakness. Insufficient effective demand remains the core contradiction [1][8]. - Given the slowdown in economic growth, macro - policies need to play a role in promoting economic recovery. Fiscal, consumption, and real - estate policies are expected to be further adjusted [2][9]. - The bond market is supported by insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery, but potential risks from subsequent policy efforts need to be noted. Bond market fluctuations may depend more on marginal changes in institutional behavior and capital flows [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 8 月经济数据：经济增长再放缓 - In August, industrial增加值 was 5.2% year - on - year (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), social retail sales were 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.8%, previous value 3.7%), and fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 0.5% (expected 1.3%, previous value 1.6%). Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment all declined [8]. 工业生产韧性尚存，环比动能略降 - In August, the year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to August was 6.2%. The growth of the service industry production index was 5.6%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - The year - on - year growth rates of the electrical machinery and chemical industries increased significantly, while those of the special equipment and transportation equipment industries declined. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries was 8.1% and 9.3% respectively, 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points faster than the overall industrial added value [16][17]. - The output of emerging products such as robot reducers, industrial robots, 3D printing equipment, and industrial control computers and systems increased rapidly [17]. 消费增速延续回落，增量政策箭在弦上 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than in July, the lowest increase this year. The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the growth rate of catering revenue increased by 1.0 percentage point but remained at a relatively low level [19]. - The effect of the "trade - in" policy weakened, and the subsidy method adjustment in some areas affected the policy's immediate pulling effect. The weak performance of commodity sales, especially the sluggish automobile consumption, also dragged down the overall retail sales [21][22]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on expanding service consumption policies [10][24]. 投资增速出现下行，继续低位磨底 - From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, 1.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [25]. - Manufacturing investment cumulative year - on - year was 5.1%. The policy effect of large - scale equipment renewal continued to be released, with equipment purchase investment growing rapidly. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation may decline, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased less year - on - year [28]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year was 2.0%, with the construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects slowing down. The high - temperature and rainy weather in August affected construction, and the capital in - place situation of some projects may not meet expectations due to local government debt - resolution pressure [28][29]. - Real - estate investment cumulative year - on - year was - 12.9%. The decline in sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing widened, and real - estate development investment reached the largest decline this year. The real - estate market was still in the stage of "trading price for volume", and real - estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented in the second half of the year [29].

罗志恒、马家进（罗志恒系粤开证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 8月生产、消费、投资等主要经济指标的同比增速呈现放缓态势，经济承压主要是由于前期支撑增长的因素正在逐步回落，同时房地产进一步下行拖累经 济，三季度经济增速有可能低于5%。此前，抢出口和转出口带动出口强劲，以旧换新政策带动消费回升，大规模设备更新和财政靠前发力支撑投资，共 同推动了上半年的经济增长。然而，这些因素的"透支效应"开始显现：随着"抢出口"行为的消退，出口增速放缓；消费品以旧换新政策对耐用消费品的刺 激作用边际递减，导致社零消费增速回落；同时，房地产市场持续低迷、制造业投资动能减弱以及地方财政紧平衡，对整体投资形成拖累。但当前经济也 呈现出一些积极因素，例如核心CPI同比回升以及股市持续上涨。 展望未来，下阶段经济增长面临的风险挑战进一步增多，四季度经济增速或回落至5%以下。从外部看，中美贸易关系的未来走向充满不确定性，同时美 国通胀形势可能扰动美联储的降息进程，对全球经济和资本市场造成不利冲击。从内部看，去年四季度政策拉动下的高基数将对今年同期的同比增速形成 压力；更为关键的是，房地产价格仍有下行压力，不仅直接抑制了房地 ...

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's economy showed short-term fluctuations due to export pressures but demonstrated strong resilience and vitality, with expectations for macro policies to continue supporting growth [3][11]. Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from July, marking the lowest since September 2024 [3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from July, representing the lowest growth rate this year [3]. - From January to August, fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first seven months of the year [3]. New Growth Points - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.5% year-on-year from January to August, with integrated circuit manufacturing and aerospace equipment manufacturing increasing by 22.3% and 14.6%, respectively [5]. - The production of industrial robots and civilian drones surged by 29.9% and 53.7%, respectively, indicating steady progress in intelligent and green transformation [5]. - Despite a nominal decline of 0.4% in industrial enterprises' export delivery value in August, the overall industrial production remained stable with ongoing cultivation of new productive forces [5][6]. Consumption Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [8]. - In August, the retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4%, with non-automotive consumer goods retail sales increasing by 3.7% [8]. - The implementation of consumption promotion policies, such as trade-in programs, has stimulated consumer demand, leading to significant growth in related product sales [9]. Investment Landscape - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 326.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [11]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding certain utilities) increased by 2.0% [11][12]. - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 12.9% in the first eight months, although signs of stabilization are emerging in the market [13]. Policy Outlook - Analysts expect new significant measures to be introduced in the fourth quarter, focusing on fiscal stimulus, interest rate cuts, and stronger support for the real estate market [3][14]. - The macro policy is characterized by a gradual and supportive approach, with an emphasis on stabilizing investment and promoting consumption to counteract economic pressures [14].

Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - Consumer spending continues to expand and improve, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, and a 3.4% increase in August alone [1] - The "trade-in for new" policy has shown positive effects, with retail sales of furniture, home appliances, and communication equipment increasing by 18.6%, 14.3%, and 7.3% respectively in August [1] - Service consumption is growing rapidly, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales [1][2] Group 2: Real Estate Market Developments - The decline in new housing sales has narrowed, with a 4.7% year-on-year decrease in sales area from January to August, a reduction of 13.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - New home prices are also seeing a reduced decline, with most cities experiencing a smaller year-on-year price drop in August compared to July [3] - The inventory reduction in the real estate market is progressing steadily, with a decrease of 3.17 million square meters in unsold housing inventory from July to August [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy Outlook - Overall, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with potential new measures aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [4][5] - Analysts suggest that new fiscal measures and possible interest rate cuts from the central bank may be introduced in the fourth quarter to counter external demand slowdowns [4]

Economic Overview - In August, the national economy showed overall stability with coordinated macro policies, steady progress in transformation and upgrading, and new achievements in high-quality development [1][2] - The industrial production and service sectors experienced rapid growth, with industrial added value increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and service production index rising by 5.6% [1] Market Performance - Retail sales and fixed asset investment maintained steady growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 39,668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year, while investment excluding real estate development grew by 4.2% [1] - The total import and export value in August was 38,744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with exports at 23,035 billion yuan (up 4.8%) and imports at 15,709 billion yuan (up 1.7%) [1] Employment and Inflation - The employment situation remained generally stable, with the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaging 5.2% from January to August and at 5.3% in August [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, indicating a slight increase in inflationary pressure [1] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with new residential sales area declining by 4.7% year-on-year, a reduction in the decline compared to the previous year [2] - In August, the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 3.17 million square meters, marking six consecutive months of reduction [2] Future Economic Outlook - The economic foundation remains strong, with macro policies showing effectiveness and ongoing reforms supporting stable growth [4] - Despite external challenges, the economy is expected to maintain a steady and improving development trend, bolstered by new growth drivers and enhanced market vitality [4]

Group 1 - The service trade has become a new engine for global economic growth, with the 2025 China International Service Trade Fair attracting 85 countries and nearly 500 Fortune 500 companies, resulting in over 900 achievements [3][4] - In 2024, China's service trade total is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, marking a historical high and positioning China as the second-largest service trade country globally [3][6] - Knowledge-intensive service trade, characterized by digitalization, intelligence, and greening, has seen a 38% increase compared to 2020, highlighting "smart" innovation as a key theme of the fair [3][4] Group 2 - Traditional service industries are undergoing transformation, with artificial intelligence and digitalization emerging as significant trends, presenting opportunities for foreign enterprises [4][6] - China has become a major trading partner for 157 countries and regions, being the world's largest goods trader and the second-largest service trader, which enhances its attractiveness as a trade partner [6][7] - The Chinese government announced measures to accelerate service market openness and promote high-quality service trade development, boosting foreign enterprises' confidence in the market [6][8] Group 3 - Companies like Meituan are leveraging technology to create new business models and enhance service experiences globally, such as launching the Keeta food delivery brand in Saudi Arabia [7][8] - Consulting firms are providing human resource services to Chinese companies expanding overseas, contributing to employment and economic growth in Belt and Road Initiative countries [8] - International exhibitions, including the service trade fair, demonstrate the global community's preference for open cooperation over unilateralism and protectionism, showcasing China's commitment to building an open world economy [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In August, China's economic performance was below expectations, with fixed - asset investment, social consumption, industrial added value, export, and service production index all showing less - than - expected growth, and the real estate market continuing to decline. To maintain rapid economic growth, domestic demand needs to continue to play a key role. The government will introduce policies to expand service consumption, promote private investment, and launch new policy - based financial tools [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Content Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.3% and the 1.6% in January - July. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 5.4% year - on - year, narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 2.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3%. In August, manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, and narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year [1][4]. Real Estate Market - From January to August, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 7.3%. In August, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month for the fifth consecutive month, and those in second - and third - tier cities also continued to decline. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 12.5% year - on - year, and the newly - started and completed floor areas also showed year - on - year declines [2][5][7]. Industrial Added Value - In August, the value - added of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. From January to August, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing maintained rapid growth, with an 8 - month growth of 9.5% year - on - year. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 96.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [9]. Exports - In August, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 5.9%. From January to August, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased significantly. Due to the low base in September last year, export growth is expected to be rapid in September, but may decline in the fourth quarter [2][10][11]. Social Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. From January to August, it increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The growth rate of consumer goods related to the trade - in policy decreased, while the growth of improved consumption accelerated. The retail sales of the automobile category increased by 0.8% year - on - year [14][15]. Service Industry - In August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, lower than the 5.8% in July. From January to August, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Information transmission, software and information technology services, finance, and leasing and business services had faster growth rates [16]. Unemployment Rate - In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year. The unemployment rate of migrant workers decreased slightly [16]. Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. On September 12, the State Council executive meeting deployed measures to promote private investment. New policy - based financial tools will be launched to support emerging industries and infrastructure projects [3][18].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Changchun High-tech (SZ 000661) announced the convening of its 12th meeting of the 11th Board of Directors on September 15, 2025, to discuss the appointment of a new deputy general manager [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Changchun High-tech is as follows: pharmaceutical industry accounts for 92.83%, real estate for 6.81%, and service industry for 0.36% [1] - As of the time of reporting, the market capitalization of Changchun High-tech is 51.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - A significant breakthrough has been reported regarding a new drug from China, which has been recognized by both Chinese and American officials for its breakthrough efficacy, generating excitement at the World Lung Cancer Conference [1]

Economic Data - In August, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.8% and previous 3.7%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.5%, down from the previous value of 1.6%[1] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, compared to the expected decline of 12.4% and previous decline of 12%[1] - The industrial added value in August grew by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.8% and previous 5.7%[1] Production and Investment - Industrial added value fell by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2% in August, indicating a slowdown in downstream production due to "anti-involution" effects[2] - Fixed asset investment dropped by 1.0 percentage points to -6.3% in August, with construction and installation investment declining significantly by 5 percentage points to -11.1%[2] - Real estate investment saw the largest decline, down 2.4 percentage points to -19.4%[2] Real Estate Market - In the real estate sector, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, while the sales amount fell by 10.6%[3] - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies remained negative at -8.1%, with new construction down 4.8 percentage points to -20.3%[3] Consumer Behavior - The year-on-year growth of social retail sales in August was 3.4%, with significant declines in home appliances (-14.4 percentage points to 14.3%) and communication equipment (-7.6 percentage points to 7.3%) sales[3] - Service consumption remained relatively stable, with restaurant income slightly increasing by 1.0 percentage points to 2.1%[3] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that external demand will continue to contribute to economic resilience, while internal demand remains weak, particularly due to the impacts of "anti-involution" and the ongoing decline in real estate new construction projects[4] - The need for policies to stabilize consumption and investment in services and infrastructure is emphasized, with ongoing monitoring of policy changes recommended[4]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of "anti-involution" on mid- and downstream production and investment is beginning to manifest [2][71] Production - Upstream production remains strong, but the influence of "anti-involution" is starting to show in mid- and downstream sectors. In August, industrial added value year-on-year decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.2%. Upstream sectors like coal mining performed well, while mid- and downstream sectors such as transportation equipment (-1.7 percentage points to 12%), metal products (-1.4 percentage points to 2.8%), and food production (-1.8 percentage points to 2%) saw declines [2][8][71] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to decline in August, primarily due to the impact of "anti-involution" on mid- and downstream investments, compounded by the ongoing contraction in new projects affecting current real estate investments. Fixed asset investment year-on-year fell by 1.0 percentage points to -6.3%, with construction and installation investment dropping significantly (-5 percentage points to -11.1%). Real estate investment saw the largest decline (-2.4 percentage points to -19.4%), while manufacturing investment also decreased (-0.9 percentage points to -1.2%) [2][13][71] Real Estate - On the demand side, sales and housing prices continue to decline, while the supply chain of "new starts-restarts-investment-completion" remains weak. In August, the sales area of commercial housing fell by 2.7% year-on-year, and the sales amount decreased by 14.0%. The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies remains negative (-8.1%), with new starts down (-4.8 percentage points to -20.3%) and real estate investment continuing to decline (-2.4 percentage points to -19.5%) [3][22][72] Consumption - Some "trade-in" products are showing signs of decline, while service consumption remains relatively stable. In August, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Notably, household appliances (-14.4 percentage points to 14.3%) and communication equipment (-7.6 percentage points to 7.3%) experienced significant declines [3][29][55] Summary - The effects of "anti-involution" on domestic supply and demand are becoming evident, but external demand is expected to continue contributing to economic resilience. The economic landscape in September shows weak domestic demand and strong external demand. Future focus should be on the pressures of internal demand, including the impact of "anti-involution" on production and investment, as well as the lagging effects of previous real estate project contractions [4][33][73]