Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Vale has revised its forecast for iron ore pellet production in 2025 to a range of 310 million to 350 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 380 million to 420 million tons [1]

Macro Analysis - The current market is influenced by three main macro variables: domestic demand recovery, policy implementation effects, and external environment changes[9] - The easing of US-China tariff negotiations helps alleviate market risk appetite pressures, but the long-term relationship remains competitive[9] - The economy is undergoing an L-shaped recovery, with manageable short-term pressures on foreign trade and employment, while low inflation remains a core challenge[9] Investment Recommendations - Strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks is advised, as de-dollarization benefits liquidity-sensitive markets[10] - A-shares are expected to experience high volatility, emphasizing the need to capture structural opportunities[10] - Suggested asset allocation includes resilient dividend assets in finance, resource sectors, and public utilities, with technology remaining a key focus[10] Company Highlights - Excellence New Energy (688196.SH) is a leader in biodiesel production, with a capacity of approximately 500,000 tons and a focus on raw material substitution[12] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) achieved revenue of 8.546 billion yuan in 2024, a 1.4% increase, with net profit rising by 12.49% to 713 million yuan[17] - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects copper production to reach 1.15 million tons in 2025, with gold production projected at 85 tons[24] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, execution delays, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[5] - For Excellence New Energy, risks involve trade barriers and raw material price fluctuations impacting profitability[16] - For Yipuli, risks include raw material price volatility and project execution delays affecting revenue growth[21]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent recommendations from brokerages for July's "golden stocks," highlighting the underlying logic and potential investment opportunities for ordinary investors [1][3]. Group 1: Popular Stocks - Kying Network is favored by five brokerages, making it the most recommended stock for the month; Zijin Mining, Huadian Technology, and Muyuan Foods follow closely with four recommendations each [3]. - The selection of these stocks reflects a diverse range of industries, including gaming, mining, PCB manufacturing, and agriculture, indicating a broad interest from brokerages [3]. Group 2: Key Selection Criteria - The first criterion is industry prosperity, with Kying Network benefiting from an increase in game licenses and the release of popular titles, while Huadian Technology sees a surge in demand for PCB boards due to 5G and automotive electronics [3][4]. - The second criterion focuses on policy benefits, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles, where domestic and global trends favor local companies [4]. - The third criterion emphasizes the importance of a company's competitive advantage or "moat," with Zijin Mining having significant copper reserves and cost control, and Huadian Technology holding over 20% market share in high-end PCBs [4]. Group 3: Stock Selection Methodology - The article suggests a three-step approach for investors to filter the recommended stocks: 1. Monitor changes in institutional holdings, such as Kying Network's increase from 8% to 15% in fund holdings [4]. 2. Assess order fulfillment rates, with Huadian Technology reporting a 40% year-on-year increase in new orders [4]. 3. Evaluate free cash flow rates, as evidenced by Zijin Mining's 35% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience initial fluctuations followed by a potential breakthrough, with short-term funds engaging in high-frequency trading within popular sectors while long-term funds adjust their portfolios [5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on industry trends, company quality, and reasonable pricing, particularly focusing on semiconductor localization, new energy exports, and consumer recovery [5].

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, marks the first major overhaul in 29 years, addressing urgent issues in mineral management and aiming to enhance resource security and promote sustainable development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Key Changes in the Law - The new law introduces a market-oriented system for the allocation of exploration and mining rights through competitive bidding, auction, and listing, emphasizing the decisive role of the market in resource allocation [2]. - It establishes a property rights registration system for mining rights, ending the previous dual-role of exploration and mining permits as both property and licenses [2]. - The law incorporates principles of coordinated development and safety, resource protection, and the idea that "whoever extracts must restore" [2][3]. Group 2: Implementation and Support Measures - The Ministry of Natural Resources is prioritizing the implementation of the new law and is actively drafting supporting regulations to ensure effective enforcement [3][4]. - A series of policy documents are being prepared to address the management of mineral resources, including guidelines for ecological restoration in mining areas [4][5]. - The Ministry is also focusing on the establishment of a mining rights registration system and improving the licensing system for exploration and extraction to ensure a smooth transition from old to new regulations [5].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.47 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Gold Market Insights - Gold ETFs saw gains, with the Gold Fund ETF (518800) rising by 1.15% and the Gold Stock ETF (517400) increasing by 1.02% [3] - Gold prices have risen over 25% in the first half of 2025, marking the best performance since the second half of 2007, driven by liquidity, geopolitical factors, and central bank purchases [3] - Global central banks are entering a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of three rate cuts within the year, which is likely to support gold prices [3][4] Central Bank Gold Demand - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, nearly 43% of 73 central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year [4] - As of May this year, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, totaling 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons) [4] Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with the Innovation Drug ETF (517110) rising by 3.90% and other related ETFs also gaining [9] - New policies from the National Healthcare Security Administration aim to support the development of innovative drugs, including increased R&D support and inclusion in insurance directories [9][10] - The year 2025 is expected to be significant for domestic innovative drugs, with a shift from generic to innovative drug development anticipated [10] Metal Market Trends - The mining ETF (561330) rose by 1.56%, and the Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) increased by 1.35%, continuing an upward trend [11] - Copper supply remains tight with declining inventories, benefiting from improved macro sentiment and expectations of rate cuts [11] - The aluminum market is also experiencing tight supply conditions, with high operational capacity and no immediate new production expected [11]

Group 1: Lithium Market Insights - The lithium market is currently at a cyclical low, but positive signs are emerging, with institutional investors showing confidence in mining and exploration stocks related to energy transition [1][2] - A global survey by Harbour revealed that around half of the institutional investors are looking for growth in natural resource stocks linked to energy transition [1][2] - Lithium has replaced copper as the second most likely commodity to attract institutional investment in Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK/Europe [2] Group 2: Demand Drivers for Lithium - Argonaut's report highlights several positive demand drivers for lithium, particularly from electric vehicles (EVs) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), with a projected 30% increase in global EV sales by 2025 [3][4] - The global sales of electric vehicles reached 1.6 million units in May, marking a 24% year-on-year increase [4][5] - Despite current oversupply in the lithium market, Argonaut predicts a rapid price recovery once a moderate shortage occurs, with expectations for lithium spodumene prices to peak at $1,500 per ton by the end of 2026 [7][9] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Argonaut forecasts that the lithium market will rebalance by 2027, with a long-term price projection of $1,600 per ton for lithium spodumene, significantly higher than current spot prices [9][10] - The report indicates that existing production capacity may be restarted in response to rising prices [8][9] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The Australian government anticipates that gold will become the third-largest export commodity next year, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [15] - Overall, Australia's resource and energy export revenue is expected to decline by 4% in the coming year, influenced by global trade barriers and economic slowdowns [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The Stibnite Gold Project by Perpetua Resources is the only known antimony deposit in North America, expected to meet 35% of U.S. antimony demand upon completion in 2028, with a total resource of 67,000 tons of antimony and 149.8 tons of gold [2][4] - The Hillgrove antimony project in Australia has completed its feasibility study and is projected to start production in Q2 2026, with a total ore reserve of 8.766 million tons, containing 39,026 tons of antimony [3][4] - The global antimony supply chain is undergoing reconstruction, shifting from a "China-centric" model to a "multi-center" approach, with significant projects like Stibnite and Hillgrove leading the way [4] Summary by Sections Stibnite Gold Project - The project has received the final federal permit and raised $400 million in equity financing, with a projected net present value (NPV) indicating a tax-adjusted payback period of only 2.5 years [1][2] Treasure Creek Project - The Treasure Creek project by Felix Gold is still in exploration and baseline study stages, with initial production expected in Q4 2025, but short-term supply impact is limited [3] Hillgrove Project - The Hillgrove project has a total ore reserve of 8.766 million tons, with gold and antimony grades of 4.0 g/t and 1.1% respectively, and an investment payback period of 8 months under current price scenarios [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that iron ore prices are experiencing fluctuations, with current spot prices for PB powder at 707 CNY/ton and super special powder at 600 CNY/ton [1] - As of July 1, 2025, various ports in China show different pricing for iron ore, with prices ranging from 650 CNY/ton to 762 CNY/ton depending on the type and origin of the ore [1] - The futures market closed at 708.5 CNY/ton on July 1, with a decline of 1.32%, indicating a volatile trading environment [1] Group 2 - On June 30, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in China reached 896,000 tons, reflecting a 5.29% decrease compared to the previous period [3] - The total iron ore arrival at 47 ports in China from June 23 to June 29 was 24.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.594 million tons from the prior week [3] - The report from Baocun Futures suggests that while iron ore demand shows some resilience, the overall market sentiment is improving, but supply remains high, leading to a forecast of continued price fluctuations [4]

6. 美农业部长：特朗普或对在美不易种植的农产品实施豁免关税。 其他： 美国关税： 1. 媒体：美国官员寻求缩小贸易协议范围，力争7月9日前达成协议。 2. 媒体：印度寻求本周与美国达成临时贸易协议。 3. 特朗普关税叠加低水位影响，欧洲港口"船"满为患，出现疫情以来最严重的供应链拥堵。 4. 日本内阁官房长官林芳正：日本不会在与美国的贸易谈判中牺牲农业部门。 5. 美国总统特朗普：日本不接受我们的稻米，但他们却面临严重的稻米短缺问题。将向日本发送关于关 税的信函。 1. 黄金创2007年以来最大半年涨幅。 2. 智利统计局：智利5月铜产量同比增长9.4%至486574吨。 3. 花旗：黄金市场的供应缺口预计将在2025年第三季度达到峰值，随后由于投资需求下降而逐渐减弱。 4. 印尼上调7月毛棕榈油参考价至每吨877.89美元。 5. 摩根士丹利：布伦特原油价格有望在明年初回落至每桶约60美元左右。 6. 欧盟委员会副主席谢夫乔维奇：欧盟已原则上达成关于乌克兰农产品出口的协议。 7. 路透社数据显示，哈萨克斯坦今年的石油产量可能比预期高出2%，达到每日200万桶，原因是大型油 田的产量预计将增加。 金十数据整 ...