Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and growth potential of China's high-tech manufacturing sector, highlighting its role in driving overall industrial profits despite challenges faced by other industries [2][3]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first seven months, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the decline rate compared to the first half of the year [2]. - In July, profits fell by 1.5% year-on-year, but this marked a 2.8% improvement from June, indicating a narrowing of the contraction [2]. - High-tech manufacturing showed a significant turnaround, with profits growing by 18.9% in July, compared to a decline of 0.9% in June, contributing to an overall acceleration in profit growth for large-scale industrial enterprises [2]. Group 2: Emerging Industries - The biopharmaceutical industry has developed strong international competitiveness through years of resilience, while the artificial intelligence sector has maintained its leading position in international competition by seeking differentiated advantages [2]. - The article illustrates that Chinese enterprises possess the drive and innovation capabilities necessary for growth, provided they are given the appropriate space to operate freely [2]. Group 3: Market Support for Innovation - The rise of domestic AI chip company Cambricon, which surpassed Kweichow Moutai in stock price, reflects a market consensus supporting companies focused on technological advancement [3]. - Investors are willing to take risks on companies that demonstrate potential for upward technological breakthroughs, indicating a collaborative effort among market participants to drive growth [3]. Group 4: Structural Challenges - The performance of high-tech manufacturing highlights a growing structural divide in the economy, with upstream raw materials and consumer services still facing significant challenges [4]. - Industries that have not yet recovered from negative growth pose risks that need to be addressed through effective support mechanisms, including legal and institutional preparations for market exits and restructuring [4]. Group 5: State-Owned Enterprises and Market Reforms - Data shows that profits for state-owned enterprises have declined, while foreign and private enterprises have seen positive growth, underscoring the need for reform in state-owned enterprises [5]. - The article advocates for market-oriented reforms as essential for the modernization and profitability of state-owned enterprises, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balance between power and rights in economic governance [5].

Group 1 - The performance of the high-tech manufacturing industry indicates a growing structural differentiation in the economy [1][4] - In the first seven months, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the first half of the year [2] - High-tech manufacturing profits turned from a decline of 0.9% in June to a growth of 18.9% in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [2][4] Group 2 - The biopharmaceutical industry has developed international competitiveness through long-term resilience, while the artificial intelligence sector has shown strong adaptability in international competition [2] - The market's strong consensus and support for innovation are reflected in the rising stock price of domestic AI chip company Cambricon, surpassing that of Kweichow Moutai [3] - Investors are willing to take risks on companies focused on technological advancements, indicating a collaborative effort among enterprises and institutional investors to drive upward breakthroughs [3] Group 3 - The challenges faced by upstream raw material industries and the consumer services sector highlight the complexity of structural transformation [4] - A robust risk protection network is necessary to help struggling industries transition, including legal and institutional preparations for market exits and mergers [4] - The need for market-oriented reforms is emphasized, particularly for state-owned enterprises, which are lagging behind in profit growth compared to foreign and private enterprises [5]

Core Viewpoint - The development of new quality productivity in Shanghai will focus on high-tech manufacturing in the secondary industry, but there are significant challenges that need to be addressed to accelerate this development [2][6]. Investment in R&D - Shanghai's R&D investment is relatively low, with R&D expenditure accounting for 4.34% of GDP in 2023, which is lower than Beijing and Shenzhen [3][4]. - Nationally, R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP has increased from 0.57% in 1995 to 2.64% in 2023, but still lags behind countries like the US, Japan, Germany, and South Korea [2][3]. High-tech Industry Cluster - Shanghai has a weak high-end industry cluster, with only 2.7% of China's high-tech enterprises located in the city, significantly lower than Guangdong and Jiangsu [4][5]. - The revenue and profit contributions of Shanghai's high-tech enterprises are also below those of other major provinces, indicating a smaller scale and fewer high-tech firms [4][5]. Strategic Entrepreneurs and Scientists - There is a shortage of strategic entrepreneurs and scientists in Shanghai, which hinders the growth of high-tech enterprises [5][6]. - A stable industrial foundation, favorable business environment, and effective property protection mechanisms are necessary to foster strategic entrepreneurs [5]. Interaction Between Innovation and Industry - The interaction between technological innovation and industrial innovation is insufficient, which is a root cause of the small scale and number of high-tech enterprises in Shanghai [5][6]. - A positive feedback loop between economic and social demands for technological innovation and the practical application of scientific research is essential for the development of new quality productivity [6][7]. Support for High-tech Enterprises - The incubation environment for high-tech enterprises in Shanghai needs improvement, with a focus on enhancing social services such as funding, policies, and legal support [7]. - Leveraging Shanghai's strong service sector, particularly in finance, can help create high-quality incubators for strategic high-tech projects [7].

2025 年 07 月 31 日 宏观点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 长期无虞 短期无忧 ——7 月政治局会议解读 最近一年走势 相关报告 《2025 年中期宏观经济形势与政策展望：新格局 下的中国经济：韧性与潜力*夏磊》——2025-07-08 《 黄 金 价 格 波 动 的 底 层 逻 辑 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-07-04 《宏观深度研究：影响土地市场的五大因素*夏磊》 ——2025-06-18 《宏观深度研究：关于关税：特朗普的核心团队在 想什么？*夏磊》——2025-06-01 《宏观深度研究：土地市场的新变化*夏磊》—— 2025-05-12 事件： 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定今年 10 月在北京召开中 国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共 中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署 下半年经济工作。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 国海证券股份有限公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. The market's focus remains on the consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry in China is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policy support. In June, these two sectors are expected to be the main focus of the market. The bond market's focus has returned to changes in the capital side. Although there were concerns about capital tightening in June, after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - The stock index futures are expected to oscillate, and the bond futures are also expected to oscillate [1]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on Alpha returns. Last week, the market's focus was on consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policies. In May, the retail of three major white - goods maintained a high year - on - year growth rate (over 60% each), and passenger car retail remained booming (16% year - on - year). There may be a pulse in overseas demand for textile, clothing, and electronic products due to "rush - to - export" [1]. - **Bond Futures**: On June 10, 2025, the 30 - year bond futures main contract rose 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts were basically stable. The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan. Capital interest rates declined slightly. The bond market's focus has returned to the capital side. Due to large maturing pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased government bond issuance, there were concerns about capital tightening in June, but after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, 2025, compared with June 6, 2025, IH rose 3.0 points (0.11%), IF rose 12.4 points (0.32%), IC rose 41.0 points (0.72%), and IM rose 67.6 points (1.11%) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 2.0 points (- 0.08%), the CSI 300 Index rose 11.3 points (0.29%), the CSI 500 Index rose 43.6 points (0.76%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose 66.1 points (1.07%) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF fell 0.015 points (- 0.01%), T rose 0.075 points (0.07%), and TL rose 0.36 points (0.30%) [4]. Market News - In May 2025, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 8.1%), and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.2%) [5]. - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased 0.1% year - on - year. From January to May, the average national consumer price index decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar against the RMB for 1M and 3M, forward euro against the RMB for 1M and 3M, US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's tariff strategy is unlikely to resolve the underlying issues of trade deficits and the decline of American manufacturing, which are rooted in structural problems related to the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1][11]. Group 1: Trade Deficits - Trump's perception of trade deficits as a loss is criticized as a flawed logic, equating it to a one-sided transaction [1][3]. - The trade deficit is primarily driven by the dollar's unique position as the global reserve currency, leading to high demand and appreciation of the dollar, which in turn raises production costs in the U.S. [3][6]. - The U.S. has a long-standing reliance on imports due to high domestic production costs, resulting in a growing trade deficit [8][11]. Group 2: Manufacturing Challenges - The high cost of labor in the U.S. due to the dollar's strength makes domestic manufacturing less competitive compared to imports [3][8]. - Trump's strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs is deemed impractical, as it does not address the fundamental cost issues associated with U.S. production [9][10]. Group 3: National Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has reached $34.5 trillion, with annual interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion, highlighting a significant fiscal challenge [16][18]. - The increasing reliance on short-term debt due to high interest rates poses additional risks, with a substantial amount of debt maturing soon [19][20]. Group 4: Tariff Implications - While tariffs could generate significant revenue (estimated at over $800 billion from a 20% tariff on $4.11 trillion in imports), they do not fundamentally resolve the underlying economic issues [23][24]. - The tariffs may serve as a negotiating tool to encourage other countries to lower their tariffs on U.S. products, potentially alleviating some trade imbalances [26][32]. Group 5: Global Economic Dynamics - The article suggests that Trump's tariffs are partly aimed at forcing countries to choose sides in the global economic landscape, particularly against China, which has become a significant competitor in manufacturing [34][38]. - The potential for increased prices and inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs could undermine the country's global credibility and economic stability [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article concludes that regardless of the effectiveness of Trump's policies, the U.S. may face a period of economic hardship, necessitating resilience and adaptability from both the U.S. and its trading partners [40][41].