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长城投研速递:短期市场或延续震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 09:49
Domestic Macro - In October, major economic indicators showed a decline, with industrial, consumption, and investment growth rates slowing compared to September. The high base from last year's policy stimulus and the misalignment of holidays contributed to short-term disturbances, indicating insufficient domestic demand and external pressure that require policy support [1][7] - The industrial added value in October grew by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month, while from January to October, it increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Real estate development investment from January to October was 73,563 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year [7] Foreign Macro - Overseas markets continued to experience fluctuations, particularly in US tech stocks, which affected sentiment in the A-share market. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.08%, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.45% [8] - Several factors contributed to the ongoing adjustment in US stocks, including the absence of key economic data during the government shutdown, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, and concerns over the sustainability of debt financing for AI giants [8][9] Bond Market - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable period despite some pressure on the fundamentals. The central bank has indicated that during this critical economic transition, it is not advisable to overly focus on total data changes [10][15] - The overall liquidity in the market is anticipated to stay relatively loose in the medium term, with the bond market likely to continue benefiting from this environment [15] Equity Market - The market is entering a period of total policy and profit vacuum, with accelerated rotation in the tech sector and increased highlights in low-position consumption and dividends. The high-yield, risk-free financial assets are diminishing, and the influx of new capital is far from over [20] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.40%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.01% last week, with 20 out of 31 industries showing gains [16][20] Investment Strategy - Emerging technology is expected to be a main focus, with cyclical consumption looking towards transformation. Attention should be given to sectors that have experienced prolonged corrections and significant adjustments [21][22] - Specific directions include technology growth, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption, and financial sectors, with a focus on areas such as internet, robotics, semiconductor, and consumer electronics [22]
港股17日跌0.71% 收报26384.28点
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-11-17 09:48
香港本地股方面,长实集团跌0.59%,收报40.48港元;新鸿基地产无升跌,收报102.4港元;恒基地产 无升跌,收报30.7港元。 中资金融股方面,中国银行跌0.42%,收报4.72港元;建设银行跌1.32%,收报8.24港元;工商银行跌 0.91%,收报6.51港元;中国平安跌0.67%,收报59.55港元;中国人寿跌1.46%,收报26.98港元。 新华社香港11月17日电 香港恒生指数17日跌188.18点,跌幅0.71%,收报26384.28点。全日主板成交 2176.13亿港元。 国企指数跌69.56点,收报9328.4点,跌幅0.74%。恒生科技指数跌55.92点,收报5756.88点,跌幅 0.96%。 蓝筹股方面,腾讯控股跌0.7%,收报636.5港元;香港交易所跌0.71%,收报422.2港元;中国移动跌 0.86%,收报86.75港元;汇丰控股跌0.71%,收报112.1港元。 石油石化股方面,中国石油化工股份涨0.23%,收报4.43港元;中国石油股份涨0.68%,收报8.85港元; 中国海洋石油涨0.45%,收报22.5港元。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 ...
牛市的税收效应
Huachuang Securities· 2025-11-17 09:41
Group 1: Tax Revenue Contributions from Bull Market - The bull market is expected to contribute approximately 310 billion yuan in incremental tax revenue this year, equivalent to 2% of the 2024 tax revenue[1] - Securities industry tax revenue growth is estimated at around 270 billion yuan[2] - Personal capital market-related tax revenue growth is projected to be about 40 billion yuan[3] Group 2: Securities Industry Tax Revenue Growth - The securities industry's tax revenue is projected to reach approximately 490 billion yuan in 2024, based on 2023 figures and profit growth estimates[4] - By 2025, the securities industry tax revenue is expected to increase to about 760 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 270 billion yuan[5] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between bull markets and significant tax revenue increases in the securities sector[6] Group 3: Personal Capital Market-Related Tax Revenue Growth - The personal income tax from capital market components (dividends, restricted stock transfers, and equity transfers) is expected to account for about 20% of total personal income tax[7] - The estimated personal capital market-related tax revenue for 2024 is around 290 billion yuan, with a projected increase to approximately 330 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 40 billion yuan[8] - Historical trends indicate that personal income tax often grows faster than overall economic and fiscal revenues during bull markets[9] Group 4: Other Tax Revenue Sources - The bull market is also expected to drive significant tax revenue growth from the insurance industry and non-financial corporate investment income[10] - In the insurance sector, the total investment income of the top five insurers increased by 35.64% year-on-year, contributing to a 13.3% increase in insurance tax revenue[11] - Non-financial corporate investment income historically shows a year-on-year growth of about 20% during bull markets, contributing significantly to corporate income tax revenue[12]
悦养老3.0焕新升级,以“响应快、自主选、家人享”打造康养新体验
Zhong Jin Zai Xian· 2025-11-17 09:37
纵观悦养老的发展路径,其通过资源整合与流程重构,构建起一套以客户为中心的健康养老服务。悦养 老康养服务,作为中意人寿打造的康养服务品牌,自推出以来便以"管家式服务"为核心定位,聚焦老年 群体在生理健康、心理健康、环境适老三大维度的综合需求。其服务设计基于"养老长周期"理念,整合 视频医生、心理咨询、照护援助、居家改造、养老咨询与养老规划六大板块,形成从健康问诊、心理疏 导、康复护理到环境打造、养老方案制定的服务链。这一体系将保障触角拓展至日常生活的方方面面, 帮助满足"老有所养、老有所安"的深层诉求,也在更广阔层面响应了国家应对人口老龄化的战略目标。 此次悦养老3.0围绕"响应快、自主选、家人享"三大维度进行升级,致力于提升服务的即时性、个性化 与家庭协同。这不仅是一次服务内容的扩容,更是一次养老理念的落地实践——让服务从保单保障走向 生活日常,从单点响应升级为长流程陪伴,并转化为连接代际亲情的温暖纽带。悦养老正在用有温度的 服务向市场证明:从财务保障到服务守护,保险正在以专业化、系统化、人性化的服务能力,努力为万 千中国家庭构建更安心、更自主、更有尊严的养老未来。 *承保且过犹豫期的指定保险产品被保险人,满 ...
“保险+科技”护航十五运会——鼎和保险跑出保险服务“加速度”
Cai Fu Zai Xian· 2025-11-17 09:30
众所周知,储能电站具有"高能量密度、电化学特性复杂、应急响应要求高"等风险,鼎和保险充分发 挥"能源行业保险专家"专业优势,依托多年深耕能源电力领域的丰富数据积累与风控模型,快速设计出 适配应急供电场景的综合保障方案,覆盖因自然灾害或意外事故导致的设备损毁、核心部件运行故障引 发的维修更换成本,以及运行过程中可能波及第三方的人身或财产损失,构建起"设备本体—运行安全 —外部责任"的全链条风险保障闭环。 2025年11月9日,第十五届全国运动会在广东奥林匹克体育中心盛大开幕。11月9日晚,在广东奥体中心 体育场,一场融合科技与绿色的点火仪式惊艳亮相。主火炬的能量来自于青海、云南、广东的光伏与云 南、广西山水间的绿电,在羊城的青山绿水间,汇聚成"熊熊燃烧"的火焰之光。 在这场国家级体育盛会的背后,一条看不见却至关重要的"能源生命线"——电力保障系统正在高效运转 中。广东奥体中心体育场附近,模块化的货柜式储能电站为广东奥林匹克体育中心场馆筑起应急供电 的"安全屏障"。"鼎和保险的快速响应与精准方案,有效支撑了储能电站如期进入联调联试阶段,为'十 五运'保供电体系注入了更强韧性与确定性。"该储能电站项目负责人表示。 ...
港股主要指数下跌 恒指跌0.71% 科指跌0.96%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 09:21
新华财经香港11月17日电(记者林迎楠)17日,港股主要指数低开低走,截至收盘,恒生指数下跌 0.71%至26384.28点,恒生科技指数下跌0.96%至5756.88点,国企指数下跌0.74%至9328.40点。 个股方面,中芯国际跌0.75%,华虹半导体涨0.39%,美团涨0.30%,中国平安跌0.67%,泡泡玛特涨 0.46%,赣锋锂业涨8.96%,小鹏汽车跌2.74%,耀才证券金融跌6.62%,工商银行跌0.91%,建设银行跌 1.32%,中国石油股份涨0.68%,宁德时代跌2.95%,山东黄金跌3.05%,中国移动跌0.86%。 成交额前三的个股中,阿里巴巴收平,成交超176亿港元;腾讯控股跌0.70%,成交超87亿港元;小米 集团跌0.94%,成交超55亿港元。 当日恒指低开130.76点,开报26441.70点,在开盘点位附近震荡后略有下降,午后先跌后涨,最终恒指 跌188.18点,主板成交超2176亿港元。当日,港股通(南向)净流入超过84亿港元。 整体来看,多数板块下跌,石油与天然气、煤炭、航空等股多为上涨,芯片、港口运输、房地产等股有 涨有跌,生物医药、科网、黄金、有色金属、券商、银行、保 ...
企业投诉渠道有哪些?这几个途径要知道
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 09:15
在现代商业社会中,消费者与企业之间的纠纷时有发生。当遇到服务质量问题、产品缺陷或不诚信经营 时,很多消费者常常感到维权无门。实际上,除了大家熟知的12315平台外,还有多个正规、高效的投 诉渠道可以帮助消费者解决问题。今天我们就来系统梳理一下当前主流的几种企业投诉途径。 一、官方投诉渠道及其特点 1. 全国12315平台 作为市场监管总局主办的官方投诉平台 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】,12315是消费者维权的重要渠道。该 平台支持网站、APP、小程序等多种投诉方式,处理范围涵盖产品质量、价格欺诈、虚假宣传等多个方 面。其最大优势在于具有行政执法权,可以对违规企业进行立案调查并实施行政处罚。不过,由于投诉 量较大,处理周期可能相对较长。 2. 工信部电信用户申诉受理中心 专门处理通信服务领域的投诉,包括移动、联通、电信等运营商的服务问题。该平台针对性强,在处理 通信资费、网络质量、套餐变更等纠纷方面效果显著,通常会在15个工作日内给出处理结果。 3. 银保监会消费者权益保护局 负责银行业和保险业消费投诉,在处理信用卡纠纷、保险理赔、理财产品销售误导等方面具有专业优 势。该机构可以对金融机构采取监管措施,保护力度较大 ...
保诚11月14日斥资292.74万英镑回购27.32万股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 09:12
Group 1 - The company Prudential (02378) announced a share buyback of 273,200 shares at a total cost of £2.9274 million, with a price range of £10.62 to £10.795 per share [1] - On the same day, the company canceled 293,500 shares that had been repurchased [1]
【Fintech 周报】经营贷利率低至2.2%;常熟银行迎“85后”行长;比特币抹去今年以来全部涨幅
Tai Mei Ti A P P· 2025-11-17 09:07
【Fintech周报旨在整合本周最重要的金融科技行业的监管政策、行业动态。】 监管动态 年化利率上限降至20% ,消费金融迎来"阵痛期" 在"助贷新规"正式实施后,又一场针对持牌消费金融机构新发利率的压降开启。21世纪经济报道记者从 多家消金、助贷机构方面了解到,经监管窗口指导,持牌消金机构需从明年一季度开始,将当季整体新 发放贷款的平均综合融资成本压降至20%(含)以内。此外,针对小贷行业利率上限的压降政策也正在 征求意见中。相较于此前要求在12月中旬将单笔贷款加权平均利率(年化利率,下同)压降至20%以内 的监管指导,如今这一要求已给出一定缓冲期,并在一定程度上放宽了利率范围。但对于消金和助贷行 业,以及需要"未雨绸缪"的中小银行而言,都存在一定压力。在这样的背景下,有机构推迟融资计划, 有机构暂停新发贷款,也有机构开启人员优化。【21世纪经济报道】 行业动态 经营贷利率"击穿地板"至2.2%,须防套利风险 在信贷市场竞争"白热化"的当下,经营贷利率正不断刷新下限。记者从珠海华润银行深圳地区工作人员 处获悉,该行经营贷利率下调至2.2%。利率下行的背后,是银行在按揭贷款需求疲软、零售业务承压 的现实下,将 ...
保险板块11月17日跌1.69%,中国人保领跌,主力资金净流出4.49亿元
证券之星消息,11月17日保险板块较上一交易日下跌1.69%,中国人保领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3972.03,下跌0.46%。深证成指报收于13202.0,下跌0.11%。保险板块个股涨跌见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601336 | 新华保险 | 67.70 | -0.76% | 15.74万 | 10.61亿 | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 59.83 | -1.35% | 56.02万 | 33.55 Z | | 601628 | 中国人寿 | 43.42 | -1.63% | 10.99万 | 4.771Z | | 601601 | 中国太保 | 35.47 | -2.26% | 33.26万 | 11.84亿 | | 61319 | 中国人保 | 65'8 | -2.50% | 65.63万 | 5.6817 | 从资金流向上来看,当日保险板块主力资金净流出4.49亿元,游资资金净流入6856.14万元,散户资金净 流入3.81亿元。保险板块个股资 ...