1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Fats and Oils**: Malaysian palm oil futures face short - term pressure due to production growth and slow export increase. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to fall further. For soybean oil, while there is support from fuel consumption as a biodiesel raw material, cost - side pressure from CBOT soybeans and high domestic inventory may limit its performance [1]. - **Meal**: Affected by crude oil decline and weather improvement, the US soybean market is weak but shows signs of stabilization at around 1020 cents. Brazilian soybean market is boosted by rising premiums. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and the meal market is in a short - term bottom - grinding adjustment with gradually strengthening support [2]. - **Hogs**: The hog spot price is in a range - bound pattern. Although the second - fattening enthusiasm has declined, the slaughter procurement is slightly more difficult. The market expects a potential rally in July and August, but the 09 contract may face downward pressure if the inventory is postponed [3]. - **Corn**: Corn supply is influenced by traders' behavior, with prices showing a stable - to - rising trend. However, the increase is limited by feed substitution. In the long - term, supply shortage and growing demand support an upward trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the import corn auction [6]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's adjustment of ethanol - gasoline ratio supports a slight rebound in raw sugar, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound. The domestic sugar market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term but is expected to turn bearish later [8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term supply shortage of old - crop cotton is difficult to resolve, but the long - term supply is sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, so the cotton price may fluctuate slightly upward in the short - term with a risk of short - term decline [11]. - **Eggs**: The national egg supply is abundant, and demand is average. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly, and finally stabilize [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Prices**: On June 27, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8290 yuan, up 0.61% from the previous day; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8500 yuan, up 0.12%; the price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9650 yuan, up 0.21% [1]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The basis of soybean oil Y2509 increased by 20% to 288 yuan; the basis of palm oil P2509 decreased by 4.62% to 124 yuan; the basis of rapeseed oil 01509 increased by 24.32% to 148 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushers was 1400000 tons, and the palm oil inventory was 1200000 tons [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2860 yuan, down 1.40%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2430 yuan, unchanged; the price of soybeans in Harbin was 3960 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The basis of soybean meal M2509 decreased by 65.79% to - 76 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal RM2509 decreased by 7.50% to - 120 yuan; the basis of soybean No.1 decreased by 5.26% to - 180 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is rising. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans for August shipment increased to 159 yuan, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed for November shipment increased to 87 yuan [2]. Hog Industry - **Futures**: The price of live hog 2507 was 13625 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the price of live hog 2509 was 14005 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend, with Henan at 14800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. - **Indicators**: The slaughter volume decreased by 0.75% to 142127 heads; the self - breeding profit increased by 159.02% to 50 yuan/head; the purchased - piglet profit increased by 29.49% to - 132 yuan/head [3]. Corn Industry - **Futures**: The price of corn 2509 was 2384 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the price of corn starch 2509 was 2743 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [6]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The basis of corn decreased by 300% to - 4 yuan; the basis of corn starch decreased by 187.50% to - 23 yuan [6]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The inventory of corn decreased by 2.34% to 1630745 tons; the inventory of corn starch decreased by 1.55% to 236004 tons; the profit of Shandong starch decreased by 10.53% to - 105 yuan [6]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 0.02%; the price of sugar 2509 was 5792 yuan/ton, up 0.03% [8]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The basis of Nanning increased by 2.76% to 298 yuan; the basis of Kunming decreased by 2.00% to 98 yuan [8]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the sales increased by 23.07% to 811.38 million tons [8]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2509 was 13760 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13765 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [11]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 4.53% to 1293 yuan [11]. - **Industry Data**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% to 312.69 million tons; the textile industry's inventory decreased by 14.0% year - on - year [11]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of egg 09 contract was 3673 yuan/500KG, up 0.36%; the price of egg 07 contract was 2803 yuan/500KG, down 0.74% [13]. - **Spot and Indicators**: The egg price in the production area was 2.78 yuan/jin, unchanged; the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.86% to 2.24; the breeding profit decreased by 19.30% to - 33.26 yuan/feather [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡偏强。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15020 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 82 元/吨。2024 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 交割规则改变，纸浆冲高回落 棉花观点 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13465元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.22%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14780元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，现货基差CF09+1315，较前一日变动+46；3128B棉全国均价14894元/吨， 较前一日变动+15元/吨，现货基差CF09+1429，较前一日变动+45。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司(CONAB)6月份发布的2024/25年度最新产量预测数据：本年度巴西棉花总 产预期为391.3万吨，较上一月调增0.8万吨。本年度种植面积下调至208.15万公顷，单产上调至125.3公斤/亩。Conab 小幅上调巴西棉产量评估，但种植面积下调。不过由于23/24年度陈花销售较好，下调了24/25年度期初库存，因此 期末库存评估下调。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。宏观方面，中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过此次谈判中 并没有明显利好中国对美出口的协议达成，宏 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 23, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,500, down 15; trading volume was 35,530 lots, an increase of 5,786 lots; open interest was 154,498 lots, an increase of 58 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,470, down 25; trading volume was 1,183 lots, an increase of 332 lots; open interest was 5,608 lots, an increase of 492 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,465, down 30; trading volume was 184,987 lots, an increase of 38,955 lots; open interest was 515,356 lots, a decrease of 9,626 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,770, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 37 lots, unchanged [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,550, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 0 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19,700, down 35; trading volume was 5,219 lots, a decrease of 931 lots; open interest was 21,159 lots, a decrease of 498 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,894 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; CY IndexC32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan [3] - Cot A was 77.55 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21,892 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 75.82 cents/pound, unchanged; Indian S - 6 was 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 30, up 10; 5 - 9 spread was 5, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 35, down 15 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 1,220, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was - 1,150, up 35; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, down 35 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,270, up 15; CY05 - CF05 was 5,080, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6,235, down 5 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,154, up 15; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 444, up 15; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,592, down 776 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending June 12, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 18,900 tons, a weekly increase of 38%, a 23% decrease from the four - week average, and a 56% year - on - year decrease; 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 62,300 tons, a 146% year - on - year increase [6] - 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 46,400 tons, a 13% week - on - week decrease, a 24% decrease from the four - week average, and a 3% year - on - year increase [6] - According to CONAB's June 2024/25 production forecast, Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [6] - Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the overall basis remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high basis was not high [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton trends. Currently, China's commercial cotton inventory is at a low level. If the de - stocking rate remains the same, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton is listed, and cotton prices may fluctuate slightly stronger [8] - Recent international changes are significant. Rising crude oil prices may drive up the prices of all commodities. Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission member Kousari said that the Iranian Parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton fabric market remained sluggish. Weaving mills reported little change in recent orders, mainly small and scattered orders. Overall, production was cut, and the operating rate was low. The transaction price of grey cloth was negotiated according to order volume. Most weaving mills focused on optimizing cash flow [9] - The pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish. Spinning mills' prices remained stable, and their willingness to reduce prices for sales decreased significantly. The phenomenon of production restrictions and shutdowns among inland spinning mills increased significantly, and the operating rate continued to decline [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On June 23, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 222.00, down 23.2%; the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 24.00, down 31.4%; the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 16.00, up 14.3% [11] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2915, with slightly lower volatility than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 was 9%, CF509 - P - 12600 was 12.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200 was 15.4% [11] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.9702, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6577. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

Group 1: Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump announced that Iran's nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed," aiming to eliminate Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities to curb nuclear threats [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of severe retaliation against U.S. interests in the Middle East, and there are discussions in Iran's parliament about potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz [1][5] - The market is concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. involvement, leading to a bullish opening in Middle Eastern stock markets on June 22 [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - U.S. stock indices predominantly declined, with small-cap stocks weakening, while China's major indices remain at low valuation levels, suggesting a favorable long-term investment environment [2][9] - The financing balance in China decreased by 7.479 billion yuan to 1.80918 trillion yuan as of June 19 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices rose approximately 2.5% following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, with Iran's parliament agreeing to potentially block the Strait of Hormuz [3][11] - The number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. fell to 438, the lowest since October 2021, down by one from the previous week and down by 47 year-on-year [3][11] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold and silver prices continued to retreat amid escalating Middle Eastern tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which has not yet made significant moves despite ongoing inflation concerns [4][17] - The market is currently anticipating a potential easing of trade conflicts, but the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to provide long-term support for gold prices [4][17] Group 5: Industry-Specific News - The domestic gold jewelry processing industry faces long-term challenges due to declining marriage and birth rates, which are expected to reduce the rigid demand for gold jewelry [8] - The overall demand for gold jewelry, driven by weddings and childbirth, accounts for over 30% of the domestic gold jewelry market, and a continued decline in this demand could lead to overcapacity in the industry [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is in a state of shock, with the domestic market having a tightening supply - demand expectation in the later part of this year, but the new - year planting area is increasing and the demand is in the off - season. The international market is affected by the USDA report and weather conditions, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle, with the 25/26 season's supply changing from shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is dragged down by the weak external market [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,775 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan's exports: In May 2025, textile and clothing exports were 1.531 billion US dollars, down 1.75% year - on - year and up 25.42% month - on - month [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil's ports: As of the week of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, down 56,500 tons (1.94%) from the previous week [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,254 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian needles was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Imports: China's pulp imports in May 2025 were 3.016 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, but the macro - environment is still uncertain [2] - International: The USDA report adjusted down the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and the ending stocks decreased. The US cotton - growing areas have improved drought conditions [2] - Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is accelerating the destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [2] Sugar - International: Although energy prices support the international sugar price, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India and Thailand has put pressure on the price [5] - Domestic: The domestic sales data is good, but the supply pressure is increasing due to the weakening of the external market [6] Pulp - Supply: The long - term contract price of Arauco has been continuously lowered, and the domestic imports have increased. The port inventory is at a high level [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak. The papermaking industry is in the off - season [7] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the cotton price to fluctuate in a range in the short term [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral - to - bearish strategy, and focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the pulp price to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]