亚通股份（SH 600692，收盘价：7.85元）7月29日晚间发布公告称，公司第十届第46次董事会会议于 2025年7月29日在公司会议室召开。会议审议了《上海亚通股份有限公司关于选举第十一届董事会独立 董事的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份，亚通股份的营业收入构成为：商品销售业务占比74.94%，工程业务占比8.72%，房 产销售占比7.86%，交通运输业务占比3.79%，其他业务占比2.7%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Market Overview - On July 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.21%, the STAR Market 50 gained 0.09%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.35%, the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.96%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.68% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on July 28 were defense and military (+1.86%), non-bank financials (+1.51%), pharmaceutical and biological (+1.47%), comprehensive (+1.29%), and communication (+1.24%). The worst-performing sectors were coal (-2.6%), steel (-1.41%), transportation (-1.38%), oil and petrochemicals (-1.02%), and textiles and apparel (-0.93%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on July 28 was 1.7662 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 9.253 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on consumption and growth styles, with industry attention on electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and brokerage firms [5] - The report suggests that under the current monetary environment, the "dumbbell strategy" remains effective, but the large-cap growth style may attract market attention in the short term [5] - Factors driving this outlook include strong support from hydropower projects and policy catalysts such as "anti-involution" and Hainan's customs closure, which have impacted the previously strong dumbbell strategy [5] - The report recommends increasing focus on mid-to-large-cap growth styles in August, particularly in sectors related to consumption and growth, as well as electric equipment and non-ferrous metals influenced by industry trends in pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs, AI healthcare) and electronics [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.25% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 719.64 million shares and a transaction amount of 851.33 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 4.39% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Steel: Increased by 0.86% with a transaction amount of 158.33 billion yuan, up by 85.57% from the previous day, led by Shengde Xintai with a rise of 15.68% [1]. - Pharmaceutical and Biological: Increased by 0.84% with a transaction amount of 709.46 billion yuan, down by 9.15%, led by Hite Bio with a rise of 15.41% [1]. - Comprehensive: Increased by 0.79% with a transaction amount of 12.55 billion yuan, down by 13.25%, led by Nanjing Xinbai with a rise of 10.06% [1]. - The worst-performing industries included: - National Defense and Military Industry: Decreased by 1.16% with a transaction amount of 300.68 billion yuan, down by 29.35%, led by Guolian Aviation with a drop of 13.35% [2]. - Building Materials: Decreased by 0.79% with a transaction amount of 205.27 billion yuan, up by 0.84%, led by Fujian Cement with a drop of 6.63% [2]. - Coal: Decreased by 0.58% with a transaction amount of 162.42 billion yuan, up by 275.67%, led by Yunmei Energy with a drop of 3.68% [2].

Core Insights - As of July 22, the latest market financing balance reached 1,919.613 billion yuan, an increase of 15.048 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the 23 primary industries under Shenwan, the electronic industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 2.381 billion yuan [1] - The industries with notable increases in financing balance also include pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and machinery, with increases of 1.413 billion yuan, 1.359 billion yuan, and 1.126 billion yuan respectively [1] - Conversely, eight industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with the computer, home appliance, and retail industries seeing the largest declines of 0.114 billion yuan, 0.095595 billion yuan, and 0.090656 billion yuan respectively [2] Industry Financing Balance Changes - The coal industry had the highest growth rate in financing balance, with a latest balance of 15.839 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.48% increase [1] - Other industries with significant increases include construction decoration, banking, and building materials, with growth rates of 2.25%, 1.70%, and 1.65% respectively [1] - The steel, retail, and home appliance industries reported the largest declines in financing balance, with latest balances of 14.479 billion yuan, 21.545 billion yuan, and 26.662 billion yuan, showing decreases of 0.48%, 0.42%, and 0.36% respectively [2]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the weekly change rate of the "total heat" indicator for broad-based indices. It selects the index with the highest heat change rate for investment, while staying out of the market if the "Other" group has the highest rate[7][13][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for each broad-based index (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "Other"). 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-period moving average (MA2). 3. On the last trading day of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash. **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of capturing short-term market sentiment shifts based on heat changes[13][16] - **Model Name**: Concept Heat TOP and BOTTOM Portfolios **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies the hottest concepts each week and constructs two portfolios based on the highest and lowest heat stocks within these concepts[30][32][34] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select the top 5 concepts with the largest weekly heat change rates. 2. Exclude the bottom 20% of stocks in terms of market capitalization within the selected concepts. 3. Construct the "TOP" portfolio by equally weighting the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each concept. 4. Construct the "BOTTOM" portfolio by equally weighting the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each concept. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures behavioral biases in concept-driven markets, where low-heat stocks in hot concepts tend to generate excess returns over time[30][32][34] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 8.74% - Maximum Drawdown: 23.5% - 2025 YTD Return: 14.7%[16] - **Concept Heat BOTTOM Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 15.71% - Maximum Drawdown: 28.89% - 2025 YTD Return: 25.5%[34] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Total Heat Indicator **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates the browsing, watchlist, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market, and scaled by 10,000[7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat score. The range of the indicator is [0, 10,000][7] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor serves as a proxy for market sentiment and attention, effectively capturing behavioral patterns such as overpricing or underreaction at the stock level[7] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Total Heat Indicator**: - No specific backtesting results provided for this factor in isolation

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of working in companies of different sizes, emphasizing that the suitability of a company size depends on individual preferences and career goals [1][15]. Small Companies Advantages - Rich learning opportunities due to smaller teams, allowing employees to take on multiple roles and gain exposure to various aspects of the business [4][5]. - A flatter organizational structure provides more decision-making power and less bureaucracy, facilitating direct communication with higher management [4]. - Significant impact on the company's success, as individual contributions can lead to rapid implementation of ideas [5]. Disadvantages - Higher uncertainty, with approximately 20% of new businesses failing within the first two years [6]. - Limited resources may restrict access to tools, benefits, and support, potentially leading to employee burnout [6]. - Career development may be constrained due to fewer advancement opportunities and limited management experience [6]. Medium-Sized Companies Advantages - Balanced structure that combines the flexibility of startups with the established processes of larger organizations [9]. - More resources available compared to small companies, including better financial support and employee benefits [9]. - Greater career development opportunities with a clearer organizational structure, allowing for exploration of various career paths [9]. Disadvantages - Limited opportunities for specialization, as certain professional roles may be outsourced due to resource constraints [10]. - Bureaucratic tendencies may slow down decision-making processes, which can be frustrating for those seeking a fast-paced environment [10]. - Intense market competition from both small and large competitors can create pressure on employees [10]. Large Companies Advantages - Abundant resources, including comprehensive benefits and training programs, contributing to a comfortable work environment [12]. - Diverse career paths and opportunities for specialization, with formal promotion processes that clarify advancement requirements [12]. - Global opportunities for international assignments, exposing employees to different cultures and markets [12]. Disadvantages - Increased bureaucracy can slow down decision-making, making it challenging to implement new ideas quickly [13]. - Individual contributions may feel less significant within a large organizational structure, leading to a sense of being just a small part of a larger machine [14]. - Complex office politics may require extensive networking to navigate and secure advancement opportunities [14].

Market Overview - On July 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.67%, the STAR 50 was up by 0.04%, the CSI 1000 gained 0.92%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.87%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.68% [4] - The best-performing sectors on July 21 were building materials (+6.06%), building decoration (+3.79%), steel (+3.44%), non-ferrous metals (+2.41%), and basic chemicals (+2.21%). The worst-performing sectors were banking (-0.77%), comprehensive (-0.34%), computer (-0.31%), home appliances (-0.03%), and food and beverage (+0.07%) [4][3] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on July 21 was 1.7271 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.051 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][3] Industry Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project commenced on July 19, which is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery due to its high investment and large power generation capacity [5] - The opening of the Yarlung hydropower project is anticipated to drive substantial demand for construction machinery [5] - Catalysts for investment opportunities include a recovery in real estate and infrastructure demand exceeding expectations, an increase in overseas market share, and faster-than-expected project progress [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% on July 21, with 27 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the construction materials and construction decoration sectors, which increased by 6.06% and 3.79% respectively [1] - The banking and comprehensive sectors saw declines of 0.77% and 0.34%, with the comprehensive sector ranking second in terms of decline [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 6.945 billion yuan, with 11 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The power equipment sector had the largest net inflow, totaling 3.193 billion yuan, and it rose by 2.06% [1] - The construction materials sector also saw significant inflow, with a net inflow of 2.038 billion yuan and a daily increase of 6.06% [1] Sector-Specific Performance - The comprehensive sector had a net outflow of 136 million yuan, with 13 out of 17 stocks in the sector rising [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the comprehensive sector were Zhangzhou Development (29.312 million yuan), Yueda Investment (15.648 million yuan), and Teda Investment (6.5835 million yuan) [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Dongyangguang (-86.3351 million yuan), Tianchen Shares (-43.6282 million yuan), and Teli A (-14.5886 million yuan) [2] Detailed Stock Performance - The stock performance in the comprehensive sector showed varied results, with Dongyangguang declining by 4.53% and experiencing the largest net outflow [3] - Zhangzhou Development led the gains with an increase of 2.69% and the highest net inflow [3] - Other notable performers included Yueda Investment (up 4.05%) and Teda Investment (up 2.06%) [3]

Group 1 - The report suggests that for most investors, it is time to gradually take profits on ultra-long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains, limited arbitrage opportunities, and weak coupon protection [6][14][18] - The performance of ultra-long credit bonds has been primarily driven by the compression of liquidity premiums in June, but this trend is expected to be difficult to sustain moving forward [7][14] - The report indicates that the current coupon advantage of ultra-long credit bonds is not significant, and their ability to protect against interest rate fluctuations is lacking, leading to a low probability of success for short-term holdings [12][18] Group 2 - The weekly review of credit bonds shows that the issuance volume remained stable, with a slight increase in maturity amounts, resulting in a net inflow of 452 billion yuan, which is a decrease compared to previous weeks [20][22] - The average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ rated bonds were 1.99% and 2.24%, respectively, indicating a mixed trend in issuance costs [20][21] - The liquidity of credit bonds continues to weaken, with a decrease in turnover rate to 1.76%, reflecting a return to a relatively low level [23]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a correction in the upcoming week due to various technical and quantitative indicators suggesting a weakening market sentiment [1][2]. Market Analysis - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 1.71, indicating that current market liquidity is 1.71 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 0.80, reflecting a growing caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 1.07% and 1.65%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight declines of -0.08% and -0.1% respectively [2]. - New RMB loans in June amounted to 22,400 billion, exceeding the consensus forecast of 18,447.29 billion and the previous value of 6,200 billion [2]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing both the consensus forecast of 8.08% and the previous value of 7.9% [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A Index remains above the SAR point, but the index and SAR point are now closely aligned [2]. - The moving average strength index is currently at 253, placing it in the 93.8 percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 1 out of 5, indicating a decrease in market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of July 14-18, the SSE 50 Index rose by 0.28%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09%, the CSI 500 Index gained 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.17% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 20.4 times, which is at the 65.3 percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observation - The small-cap factor crowding is at a high level with a score of 1.07, while the low valuation factor crowding is at 0.36 [3]. - The industry crowding levels are relatively high in banking, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, steel, and non-bank financial sectors, with notable increases in steel and pharmaceutical industries [3].