消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结 论， 认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡 ，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 早盘WTI 原油主力期货一度涨超6%。 摩根大通预测，若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油价可能飙升至120— 130美元区间。 （→ 美国打击伊朗核设施，卫星图曝光！原油大涨，黄金高开 ） 申万宏源认为，短期A股风险偏好回落，自上而下的叙事有所弱化，短期有休整需要，但跌不 深是一致预期，对应短期防御类资产有绝对收益。 国泰海通证券表示，全球地缘政治格局加速演变，外贸有望打开军工行业新的增长极，推荐 产品或业务与出口密切相关企业。分析认为，在大国博弈加剧的背景下，加大国防投入是当 今时代的必选项，内需和外贸有望驱动军工行业高景气度，保持发展趋势长期向好。 信达证券认为，市场在6—7月可能还会有震荡回撤，不过幅度可控。三季度后期或四季度， 盈利、政策和居民资金三个因素中，只要有一个往乐观方向转变，市场有望回归牛市状态。 现货黄金失守3 3 6 0美元/盎司 6月23日，A股指数低开，三大股指一度飘红。截至10:40，约3500股上涨。 板块上，油气、航运、军工涨幅居前 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 后市关注点 在众多宽基指数中，科创板走的最弱，半导体、算力、机器人等科技股，从三月份左右开 始，拥挤度到达高位之后，一直走一个弱调整的趋势，目前还没有全面走向右侧。不过，随 着金融政策如科创板成长层的推出，以及后续一系列科创属性的新股上市，有望带动半导体 等科技股的关注度。这可能还需要一段时间，且成交量需要配合。总体上我们建议先防守， 再进攻。 市场回顾 本周市场收阴，上周我判断市场偏弱势，理由是：上证指数多次挑战 3400 点后回落，这里 形成了一个心理关口，后期如无较大成交量，站稳 3400 点有一定难度。微盘股指数，形成 了高位十字星，因此要暂时谨慎对待小微盘股票。港股周线形成长上影线，且 A/H 溢价到达 新低，这个比值要想回到常规区间，往往需要港股回调或 A 股上涨，从历史经验来看，往往 是前者的概率更高一些。因此应该慎重对待，控制仓位观望为主。那么本周则是较为符合预 期。指数本周打破上周十字星的底部，形成了个短 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict on the oil and gas industry, logistics, and various sectors including aviation, express delivery, and chemicals [1][2][4][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Oil and Gas Industry - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical oil transport route, accounting for 20% of global oil liquid consumption, approximately 20 million barrels per day [1][2][3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel, leading to energy inflation and significant impacts on various sectors, particularly aviation [1][2][5]. - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have increased dramatically from 22,000 yuan to over 50,000 yuan, indicating that freight performance has outpaced stock price movements for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [1][4]. Aviation Sector - A potential rise in oil prices to $130 per barrel would significantly affect airline stocks, as fuel surcharges may not fully cover increased costs, potentially suppressing demand [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that airline stock prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than temporary spikes in fuel prices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in investment [6]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing a reduction in price wars, with companies like YTO Express raising prices, indicating a stabilization in pricing pressures [7]. - The application of unmanned vehicles in last-mile delivery is advancing, reducing costs by 0.6 to 0.8 yuan per parcel, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][8]. Chemical Industry - The chemical products price index has risen to 4,210 points, driven by increasing oil prices, although demand seasonality limits the ability to pass on costs, leading to heightened cost pressures [9][10]. - The polyester POY price has increased by 3.6%, but the profit margins are narrowing due to seasonal demand constraints [10]. Fertilizer and Agricultural Chemicals - The price of potassium fertilizer has surged due to supply constraints from Israel, with domestic prices rising by 80 yuan to 3,040 yuan, indicating further potential for price increases [12]. - The pesticide sector is witnessing price increases, particularly for chlorantraniliprole, which has risen by 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply chain disruptions [11]. Metals Market - Gold prices have continued to decline, but the risk premium may rise due to the severity of the conflict, with potential for prices to reach around $3,400 per ounce [16]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise following the extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds a significant share of global cobalt production [17]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing mixed performance, with a decline in demand but potential for increased utilization in coal chemical processes due to high oil prices [19][20]. - Recent price increases in coal, particularly in the power sector, suggest a potential rebound in demand as electricity consumption rises [22]. Other Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC's production adjustments, will significantly influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [25][26]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong dividend yields and those positioned to benefit from rising commodity prices, such as coal and energy firms [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and their implications across various industries.

策略周观点：波动上升，后市如何看？20250622 摘要 港股上半年表现强劲，受益于资金回流和关税趋缓，但当前估值较高， ERP 指数较低。然而，中国资产在全球估值中仍具洼地效应，人民币升 值将增强中国股票类资产弹性，中长期仍有重估空间。 预计美联储 9 月可能首次降息，但降息幅度有限，或为应对式而非大幅 宽松。美国债务上限解决后，大规模发债可能导致实体经济流动性抽离， 美债利率上升，短期内对美股形成挤压。 港元汇率及利率对香港市场有重要影响，资金回流带动港元升值。香港 联系汇率制度透明，但 HIBOR 利率下降可能扩大套息交易空间，对港 股影响边际且局部，核心仍取决于经济基本面。 港股未来一年的核心影响因素是经济修复，目前股权风险溢价处于历史 低位，恒生指数与中美制造业 PMI 相关性高。预计今年财政力度将托举 经济，香港非金融海外中资股盈利增速或超预期。 三季度是解禁高峰期，市场波动可能较高，高股息加必须消费品配置偏 防御。若非基本面因素造成回撤，将提供增配香港核心资产空间，包括 科技、大众消费、传统消费及大金融领域。 Q&A 2025 年下半年海外市场的整体展望是什么？ 2025 年下半年，海外市场预计 ...

Group 1 - The oil and gas ETF (159697.SZ) increased by 1.85%, with the associated index, Guozheng Oil and Gas (399439.SZ), rising by 1.82% [1] - Major constituent stocks saw significant gains, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) up 1.61%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) up 0.87%, and China Merchants Energy (招商南油) up 10.16% [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense following the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, with potential retaliatory actions from Iran, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [1] Group 2 - Since the onset of the conflict, the oil and gas ETF has experienced a net inflow of 108 million, with a net inflow rate of 127% [2] - The report indicates that historical data suggests such conflicts typically lead to short-term reactions in oil prices, while long-term prices are determined by supply and demand fundamentals [1]

Macro News Summary - The State Administration for Market Regulation is accelerating the introduction of policies and measures to enhance quality financing and credit enhancement [5] - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority jointly held a launch ceremony for cross-border payment [6] - The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission is conducting a special action to rectify the abuse of AI technology [6] Industry Latest Developments - The International Solid-State Battery Technology Conference has opened, showcasing advanced materials and intelligent equipment, with related stocks including Winbond Technology (300457) and XianDao Intelligent (300450) [8] - The gaming industry is experiencing significant policy benefits, making the industry valuation attractive, with related stocks such as Giant Network (002558) and Zhangqu Technology (300315) [8] - The humanoid robot industry chain is gathering leading companies in Hangzhou to outline a new blueprint for intelligent manufacturing, with related stocks including Shenghong Technology (300476) and Wuzhou New Spring (603667) [8] Listed Company Focus - Jingye Intelligent (688290): Shareholder inquiry for transfer is preliminarily priced at 43.90 yuan per share, with a dividend plan adjusted to 10 pay 0.6453 yuan [10] - Shenzhen Huaqiang (000062): Has made small equity investments in several semiconductor IDM or design companies through CVC [10] - Aosaikang (002755): Announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Jiangsu Aosaikang Pharmaceutical's Methotrexate Injection has obtained a drug registration certificate [10] - Xinhau Optoelectronics (301051): Announced plans to transfer 100% equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary Anhui Xinguang to Luxshare Precision [10] Market Review and Outlook - On June 20, the market experienced a downward trend, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [12] - The market showed mixed performance with over 3600 stocks declining. Notable rebounds were seen in liquor stocks, while oil and gas stocks collectively adjusted [12] - The outlook suggests continued market consolidation, with a focus on the support level around 3332 for the Shanghai Composite Index. If this level holds, there may be short-term recovery opportunities in popular sectors [12]

每经记者｜肖芮冬 每经编辑｜叶峰 ｜2025年6月23日星期一｜ NO.1 董方离任招商基金副总经理 6月19日，招商基金发布公告，董方因工作安排，于6月19日离任公司副总经理。 履历显示，董方1995年5月~2001年5月任职于交通银行深圳分行；2001年5月~2023年8月任职于招商银 行，曾任总行资产管理部副总经理、总行财富管理部副总经理、总行财富平台部副总经理。2023年8月 加入招商基金，自2023年9月28日起担任招商基金党委委员、副总经理。 NO.2 权益类新基金建仓加速 Wind数据显示，截至6月19日，6月份以来新成立的权益类基金已有47只。值得注意的是，多只成立时 间不足半个月的基金已步入建仓阶段，单位净值发生了变动。 以成立于6月4日的汇添富中证油气资源ETF发起式联接基金为例，6月6日，该基金A份额的单位净值出 现波动，从此前的1元变为1.0012元。 此外，首批新型浮动费率基金近期密集公告成立，其中比较早成立的东方红核心价值混合，在成立后的 一周内就已开始建仓。截至6月13日的净值数据显示，该基金A类份额净值为0.9985元。 NO.3 油气类产品业绩"超车"创新药主题 6月份以来， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a price forecast of $66 per barrel for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a trend towards a looser supply-demand balance for crude oil in 2025, with the EIA projecting a global oil supply surplus of approximately 820,000 barrels per day this year [4][19]. - The report highlights that the upstream sector is showing signs of recovery, with drilling day rates expected to increase as global capital expenditures rise [4][21]. - The refining sector is experiencing improved profitability due to rising product price spreads, although current levels remain low [4][21]. - The polyester sector is underperforming, with PTA and polyester filament profits declining, but a gradual improvement is anticipated as new capacities come online [4][21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $77.01 per barrel, a 3.75% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 1.18% to $73.84 per barrel [4][25]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 421 million barrels, down 11.47 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 10% decline compared to the same period last year [4][27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $11.58 per barrel, up $6.18 from the previous week [4]. - The report notes that while refining product spreads have improved, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual enhancement as economic recovery progresses [4][21]. Polyester Sector - The report states that PTA prices have turned from decline to increase, with the average price in East China reaching 5,084 RMB per ton, a 4.69% increase week-on-week [4]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is described as average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [4][21][22]. - It also suggests that the polyester sector may see long-term improvements, advocating for investments in leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][21][22].

美军炸弹落伊朗，A股周一谁笑谁哭？ 特朗普的社交媒体帖子宣告"和平时刻"降临，千里之外的A股股民账户却在为战争买单倒计时。 6月22日清晨，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体投下一枚"信息炸弹"：美军成功打击伊朗三处核心核设施，所有军机安全返航，文末不忘附上一句"现在是和平 的时刻"。 此次突袭堪称现代战争史上的"静默闪电战"。 从特朗普宣称"考虑动武"到炸弹落地，仅隔48小时，期间美军完成了一场精密部署：战机转入地下掩体、核潜艇悄然离港、隐身轰炸机进入待命状态。当 GBU-57"巨型钻地炸弹"砸向福尔多地下核设施时，伊朗防空系统竟未监测到任何交火信号。 这次行动标志着美国从中东代理人战争转向直接干预的战略转折。与6月13日以色列发动的"狮子勇气行动"不同，此次美军亲自摧毁伊朗核命脉，动用了 可穿透60米钢筋混凝土的终极武器。 美DKF 中专利多少 | 2017-01-11 | 11:20:50 | P 俄罗斯恐将出手! 发出"最强硬表态" 若哈梅内伊遇刺 将作出"非常负面"的反应 线不接受伊朗政权发生重建的仙鹰军用言潘多拉魔盒 時刻之战或扩大军军国战争? 河南家公用自由 發表可算產產品含分時買票， 伊朗良發型箱 "不 ...

Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3400 points, closing around 3360 points, with trading volume shrinking to around 1 trillion [3] - The support level is strong at 3340-3360 points, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a previous consolidation range and the 60-day moving average [3] - The ChiNext Index nearly breached 2000 points, indicating a growing demand for a rebound due to overselling [3] News Impact - The Middle East conflict, particularly between Iran and Israel, has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases, potentially exceeding $100 according to Goldman Sachs [4] - This situation presents a dual impact on A-shares: sectors like oil, gas, and gold may benefit, while export-reliant sectors such as electronics and home appliances could face challenges [4] - Domestic policies are supportive, with the launch of cross-border payment services and various financial opening measures announced by the central bank, which could benefit banks and digital currency sectors [4] Policy Environment - The central bank injected 1.4 trillion in liquidity but did not adjust the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus [5] - Policy easing in the real estate sector, such as the removal of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, may provide some stimulus to building materials and home furnishings, but expectations for a significant sector rally should be tempered [5] - Key sectors like semiconductors and AI computing are receiving clear policy support, presenting opportunities during market pullbacks [5] Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of over 20 billion, while domestic institutional investors withdrew more than 60 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - Despite the outflows, sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals attracted investment, with banks and utilities serving as safe havens [6] - The valuation advantage of A-shares remains, suggesting that capital may return once geopolitical tensions ease [6] Strategy for Next Week - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a position of around 50% to allow for flexibility [7] - Key focus areas include cross-border payment initiatives, oversold technology sectors, and defensive assets like oil and gold [7] - Monitoring trading volume and sector performance will be crucial for potential adjustments in positions [7]