Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is planning to reduce certain steel and aluminum tariffs, which has led to a significant drop in the prices of aluminum and copper futures, reflecting market reactions to the potential policy changes [1][4][12]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - Reports indicate that the Trump administration is reviewing the list of products affected by tariffs and may exempt certain items, ceasing the expansion of the tariff list [4][16]. - The tariffs on steel and aluminum, which were as high as 50%, have been criticized for increasing consumer costs, contradicting the administration's claim that foreign companies would bear the burden [6][18]. - The overall tariff levels in the U.S. have reached their highest since World War II, prompting the administration to reconsider its approach due to rising voter dissatisfaction with living costs [4][16]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - Economic analyses show that approximately 90% of the costs from the tariffs have been borne by U.S. consumers and businesses, challenging the narrative that foreign entities are responsible for these costs [7][18]. - Recent polls reveal that over 70% of American adults view the current economic situation as only fair or poor, with about 52% believing that Trump's economic policies have worsened conditions [4][16]. Group 3: Political Repercussions - The tariff policies have sparked political backlash, with some Republican lawmakers joining Democrats in opposing tariffs on Canada, indicating a significant challenge to Trump's trade policies as midterm elections approach [19]. - Concerns about the impact of tariffs on small businesses and consumers are growing among voters, influencing the political landscape as elections draw near [19]. Group 4: Complexity of Tariff System - The current tariff system has been described as overly complex and difficult to enforce, with businesses facing unexpected tax bills due to the intricate and overlapping trade regulations [8][20]. - The lobbying mechanism that allows companies to request tariffs on competitors' imports has led to an expanding list of taxed household goods, complicating enforcement further [20].

Group 1: Financial Performance - Norsk Hydro reported a quarterly core profit of 5.8523 billion NOK (approximately 0.58523 billion USD) for Q4, exceeding market expectations of 5.23 billion NOK, despite a decline from 7.7 billion NOK in the same period last year [1] - The decline in performance was attributed to lower alumina prices and a stronger Norwegian krone, but was partially offset by increased sales volumes of primary aluminum and alumina, as well as reduced raw material costs [1] - The company generated free cash flow of 4.6 billion NOK, with an adjusted return on capital employed (RoaCE) of 10.2% for the year [1] Group 2: Operational Highlights - The upstream business segment performed strongly in Q4, with Alunorte alumina production exceeding rated capacity due to optimized refining processes and high equipment availability [2] - The aluminum metal business saw a 2.5% year-on-year increase in quarterly production, continuing the recovery from previously reduced capacity [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The European Union's plan to impose carbon emission fees on aluminum imports presents a changing outlook for Hydro, potentially benefiting lower-emission metal products [2] - Hydro signed two long-term power purchase agreements with Hafslund for 5.25 terawatt-hours of electricity supply from 2031 to 2040, which will support its low-carbon aluminum strategy [2] - Utilizing renewable energy, Hydro's aluminum production carbon footprint in Norway can be reduced by approximately 75% compared to the global average [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals show sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals indicate stable supply and a slight decline in demand. After the long - holiday, demand is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5] - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand and relatively high industrial inventory. After the holiday, cast aluminum consumption is expected to pick up. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7] - In the option market, considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [71] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review** - Shanghai aluminum's weekly line fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 0.51%, closing at 23,195 yuan/ton. Alumina showed a fluctuating trend, with a weekly change of + 0.6%, closing at 2,841 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract showed a fluctuating trend, with a weekly change of + 0.41%, closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Outlook** - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is gradually decreasing, and the domestic bauxite supply is gradually sufficient. The overall start - up of alumina smelters is stable, and may decline slightly due to the approaching holiday. The domestic supply is generally stable, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum gradually boosts the demand for alumina, but the increase is limited [4] - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The raw material alumina is priced at a low level, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is still good. The start - up of production remains stable. Limited by the production capacity ceiling and fewer production days, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is generally stable with a slight decline. The demand from downstream processing enterprises has weakened due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the spot market transactions are relatively light, with obvious inventory accumulation [5] - **Cast aluminum**: The price of primary aluminum is still at a relatively high level, and the cost of scrap aluminum has increased due to climate reasons, providing cost support for cast aluminum. As the holiday approaches, recycled aluminum plants are gradually shutting down, and the domestic supply of cast aluminum has decreased. Downstream die - casting enterprises are also in the long - holiday shutdown state, and the relatively high price of cast aluminum has suppressed the downstream purchasing willingness [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes** - As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 23,155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton or 0.56% from February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME aluminum was 3,097.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 71.5 US dollars/ton or 2.36% from February 6. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.6, a decrease of 0.25 from February 6 [10][11] - As of February 13, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2,625 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton or 0.85% from February 6. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 22,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton or 0.41% from February 6 [14] - **Position Changes** - As of February 13, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 629,783 lots, a decrease of 21,220 lots or 3.26% from February 6. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 57,233 lots from February 6 [17] - **Price Difference Changes** - As of February 13, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from February 6. The copper - aluminum futures price difference was 77,185 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from February 6 [20] - **Spot Price Changes** - As of February 13, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained unchanged from February 6. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 23,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.42% from February 6 [25] - As of February 13, 2026, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 23,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.04% from February 6. The spot discount was 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory Changes** - As of February 12, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 483,550 tons, a decrease of 9,425 tons or 1.91% from February 5. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 861,100 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons or 8.16% from February 5. As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 245,140 tons [30][33] - As of February 13, 2026, the total warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum were 202,395 tons, an increase of 46,862 tons or 30.13% from February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the total registered warehouse receipts of LME electrolytic aluminum were 441,425 tons, an increase of 775 tons or 0.18% from February 5 [33] - **Bauxite Import and Inventory** - As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 24.63 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous month. In December 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 14.6734 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous month and 2.02% from the same period last year. From January to December, the import of bauxite was 200.5319 million tons, an increase of 26.31% from the same period last year [36] - **Scrap Aluminum Situation** - As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. In December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 194,102.07 tons, an increase of 22.8% from the same period last year; the export volume was 70.8 tons, a decrease of 4.4% from the same period last year [40] - **Alumina Production and Trade** - In December 2025, the alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative alumina production was 92.4456 million tons, an increase of 8% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the alumina import volume was 227,800 tons, a decrease of 1.99% from the previous month and an increase of 1389.71% from the same period last year; the export volume was 210,000 tons, an increase of 23.53% from the previous month and 10.53% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative alumina import was 1.1978 million tons, a decrease of 15.64% from the same period last year [45] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Trade and Production** - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 189,200 tons, an increase of 17.22% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.5376 million tons, an increase of 18.82% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 37,600 tons. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 296,600 tons. From January to November 2025, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 204,900 tons [48] - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 387,400 tons, an increase of 3% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 4.5016 million tons, an increase of 2.4% from the same period last year. In January 2026, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.854 million tons, an increase of 0.58% from the previous month and 2.28% from the same period last year; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous month and 0.51% from the same period last year; the start - up rate was 98.79%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.71% from the same period last year [51] - **Aluminum Products Production and Trade** - In December 2025, the aluminum products production was 6.1356 million tons, a decrease of 0% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum products production was 67.5039 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the aluminum products import volume was 320,000 tons, an increase of 7.1% from the same period last year; the export volume was 540,000 tons, an increase of 7.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the aluminum products import volume was 3.92 million tons, an increase of 4.6% from the same period last year; the export volume was 6.13 million tons, a decrease of 8% from the same period last year [55] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Situation** - In January 2026, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a decrease of 0% from the previous month and an increase of 9.03% from the same period last year. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 664,900 tons, a decrease of 3 from the previous month and an increase of 10.95% from the same period last year [58] - **Aluminum Alloy Production and Trade** - In December 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 19.297 million tons. In December 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 93,100 tons, a decrease of 11.81% from the same period last year; the export volume was 25,500 tons, an increase of 20.03% from the same period last year. From January to December, the aluminum alloy import volume was 1.0084 million tons, a decrease of 16.82% from the same period last year; the export volume was 284,700 tons, an increase of 17.5% from the same period last year [61] - **Real Estate Market** - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing start - up area was 587.6996 million square meters, a decrease of 20.47% from the same period last year; the housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a decrease of 23.9% from the same period last year [64] - **Infrastructure Investment and Automobile Production and Sales** - From January to December 2024, the infrastructure investment decreased by - 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,272,229 units, a decrease of 6.2% from the same period last year; the production volume was 3,295,965 units, a decrease of 2.09% from the same period last year [67] 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [71]

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Company Situation - Century Aluminum's stock price dropped significantly on February 12, 2026, closing at $50.37, a decline of 5.74% for the day, with a trading volume of approximately $29.12 million [1] - The company announced a partnership with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to invest over $5 billion in a new aluminum plant in Oklahoma, which raised short-term concerns about increased financial pressure due to the substantial capital expenditure [2] - Following the announcement, the stock price experienced a decline of up to 8.4%, as some investors opted to take profits after a 12.52% increase over the previous five trading days [2] Industry Situation - The aluminum price is experiencing volatility, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price reported at $3,117 per ton on February 12, 2026, indicating potential short-term profit impacts for companies due to cyclical price corrections [3] - The overall aluminum sector saw a decline of 2.07% on the same day, influenced by a broader market downturn where major U.S. stock indices fell, leading to increased risk aversion and a shift of funds towards defensive assets [3] Recent Company Developments - The largest shareholder, Glencore, reduced its stake by selling 9 million shares at $30.65 each, raising approximately $276 million, which led to a nearly 14% drop in stock price on the day of the sale, creating lingering doubts about shareholder confidence [4] - The company's current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 59.96, significantly higher than the industry average, raising concerns about overvaluation in a weak market environment [4] - Despite five institutions giving a buy or hold rating with a target average price of $59.75, the high valuation could trigger a market correction [4]

经济观察网凯撒铝业预计于2026年2月18日公布2025年第四季度财务业绩。分析师对当期营收的预测值 为9.020亿美元，每股收益预测为1.670美元。公司战略投资如Warrick涂层生产线有望在2026年达到全面 运行率，可能影响未来产能和增长前景。 股票近期走势 近7个交易日(2026年2月6日至12日)，凯撒铝业股价区间涨跌幅达10.00%，2月12日最新收盘价为144.11 美元。期间股价振幅为12.98%，成交额约1.18亿美元，显示市场活跃度提升。 近期事件 铝价持续上涨至历史高点，2026年初沪铝主力合约突破2.5万元/吨，供需紧平衡格局支撑行业需求。这 一宏观环境可能对铝业公司盈利产生积极影响。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Group 1 - The company has launched a high-end heat treatment production line through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hongsheng New Materials, to support the supply of high-precision aluminum materials [2] - By 2026, the company plans to accelerate the construction of a 720,000-ton aluminum-based new materials intelligent manufacturing project, focusing on the development of higher strength and precision aluminum alloy materials [2] - The company aims to expand its core structural component categories and enhance its product penetration and comprehensive supporting capabilities within the relevant industry chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively enhancing its high-end product offerings, leading to a significant increase in pre-tax profit per ton. Group 1: High-End Product Development - The company is focusing on high-end transformation with ongoing projects such as the "Hongsheng New Material" automotive and green energy aluminum industrial park and the "Yirui New Material" project, which aims for an annual production of 720,000 tons of aluminum-based new materials [1] - The product range now covers various sectors including new energy batteries, low-altitude economy, metal packaging, and automotive [1] Group 2: Profit Projections - The projected pre-tax profit per ton is approximately 1,300 yuan in Q1 2025, 1,400 yuan in Q2 2025, and over 1,500 yuan in Q3 2025, indicating a stable increase [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China Aluminum (601600) is focusing on high-end gallium-based new materials and is actively working on foundational and forward-looking technological advancements in this area [1] - The company is continuously promoting the extension of the gallium industry chain downstream [1]

证券日报网讯2月12日，中国铝业（601600）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司有部分氧化铝产 品向欧盟国家出口。 ...