证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-19 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 18105.47 | | 52 周最高 | 19832.49 | | 52 周最低 | 14118.56 | 行业相对指数表现 -29% -25% -21% -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《白酒主动降速减压、提高分红率，大 众品关注新渠道/新品类机会》 - 2025.05.12 食品饮 ...

5月17日，2025湖北潜江龙虾产业博览会现场，良品铺子（603719）与当地头部餐饮品牌"虾皇"正式签 订战略合作协议。作为"寻味中国好原料"第二站，此次合作以"原产地+好原料"为核心，再次刷新零食 的地域风味边界。 良品铺子表示，今年4月28日，由央视农业中心、良品铺子、京东及7县市政府联合发起的"寻味中国好 原料暨CMG乡村地域特色首发经济启动仪式"在湖北秭归县举行。活动现场，秭归、潜江等荆楚7县主 要领导授予良品铺子"区域公用品牌生态战略合作伙伴"称号，三方达成"长期原料直采、标准共建、品 牌共推"的合作机制。 此次潜江站活动，是良品铺子"寻找中国好原料"之旅的第二站。潜江，这座"中国小龙虾之乡"，在中国 小龙虾产业中占据着举足轻重的地位。2024年，在全国416个区域公用品牌参与的中国地理标志农产品 (水产)区域公用品牌声誉排行榜中，"潜江龙虾"以846.89的高分荣登榜首。 良品铺子表示，公司围绕"品质食品、品牌引领、生态经营、以人为本"的16字经营策略，今年，良品铺 子将深入全国50个原产地产区，再建10个核心原料基地，打造从"泥土到食品"的全产业链价值闭环，为 消费者带去更多原产地好物。(胡敏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how Oreo has successfully innovated its product offerings and marketing strategies to engage younger consumers, particularly through the "Seeking Flavors from All Directions" series, which combines cultural elements with experiential marketing [4][29]. Group 1: Product Innovation - Oreo's new "Seeking Flavors from All Directions" series features packaging that showcases iconic Chinese landmarks, enhancing the travel experience for consumers [2][10]. - The series includes new flavors inspired by traditional Chinese pastries, such as "Peony Cake" and "Top Scholar Cake," which connect consumers to cultural heritage [12][13]. - The packaging design incorporates cultural elements and interactive features, transforming the consumption experience into a more engaging ritual [15][17]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The brand has shifted from one-way communication to interactive engagement, encouraging consumers to share their experiences on social media, resulting in over 300 million views on related topics [17][19]. - Oreo's marketing strategy includes creating memorable experiences through themed events and collaborations, such as a co-branded high-speed train that travels to popular tourist destinations [19][21]. - The brand aims to be a companion for young travelers, promoting the idea of taking Oreo snacks on trips and sharing photos with iconic landmarks [21][24]. Group 3: Cultural Relevance - Oreo has recognized the growing importance of emotional value in snacks, positioning its products as "social currency" among young consumers [8][27]. - The brand's continuous innovation reflects a deep understanding of cultural trends and consumer sentiments, allowing it to remain relevant across generations [24][28]. - By integrating local flavors and cultural narratives into its products, Oreo enhances the emotional connection with consumers, making snacking a more meaningful experience [29].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The capital market reform in China is accelerating, leading to a positive outlook for the A/H stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding over 300 points to around 3400 [1] - Investor concerns regarding US-China competition and the government's commitment to supporting the capital market have diminished, indicating a more stable investment environment [1] - The decline in risk-free interest rates and the government's stance on stabilizing and activating the capital market are key drivers for the upward trend in the Chinese stock market [1] Group 2: M&A and Restructuring - The revised regulations for major asset restructuring by the CSRC have introduced a simplified review process, significantly improving transaction efficiency [2] - New mechanisms for payment and regulatory adjustments enhance the adaptability of M&A in the tech sector and state-owned asset integration [2] - The current round of restructuring focuses on industrial logic rather than valuation-driven approaches, aiming to strengthen profitability through industry consolidation [2] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and banks are recommended due to declining risk-free rates and increased market entry [3] - Emerging technology sectors are highlighted as growth areas, with recommendations for internet, media, semiconductor, and healthcare industries [3] - The emphasis on domestic consumption and fixed asset investment is rising, with recommendations for sectors like real estate, non-ferrous metals, and consumer goods [3] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - Foreign capital remains dominant in the Hong Kong stock market, accounting for over 60% of the market, despite a slight decline in its proportion [6] - The proportion of southbound funds has increased significantly, indicating a growing influence on market pricing [6] - Different types of foreign capital exhibit distinct trading behaviors, with stable foreign capital favoring long-term holdings and flexible foreign capital engaging in short-term speculation [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies within the discretionary consumption sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance relative to the market [1][3][5]. Core Insights - The pet and U.S. hotel sectors have shown the best performance this week, with valuations in most sectors still below the average of the past five years [1][4][13]. - The report highlights that the average increase for leading companies in the pet sector was 9.1%, driven by favorable trade negotiations and the commencement of the 618 pre-sale [4][15][17]. - Valuation analysis indicates that most sub-sectors are trading below their historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5][9][19]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings: Pet > U.S. Hotel > Credit Card > Cosmetics > Gambling > Sportswear > Luxury Goods > Snacks [7][14]. - Monthly performance rankings: Pet > U.S. Hotel > Gambling > Cosmetics > Sportswear > Credit Card > Luxury Goods > Snacks [14]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance rankings: Pet > Luxury Goods > Cosmetics > Snacks > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Gambling [14]. Valuation Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the expected P/E ratios for various sectors are as follows: - Sportswear: 15.6x (77% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 18.4x (52% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 14.2x (23% of 5-year average) - Cosmetics: 36.8x (91% of 5-year average) - Pet: 50x (51% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 24.3x (37% of 5-year average) - U.S. Hotel: 29.4x (18% of 5-year average) - Credit Card: 32x (61% of 5-year average) [5][9][18][19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the value of liquor allocation is stronger, and consumer goods are embracing new consumption trends. The food and beverage index increased by 0.5% from May 12 to May 16, ranking 15th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.6 percentage points. Sub-industries such as health products (+8.5%), baked goods (+2.4%), and dairy products (+1.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12] - The report indicates that liquor companies are experiencing slow revenue growth, which is already anticipated by the market. This is due to demand remaining at a low level and companies reducing channel burdens. The report suggests that liquor is currently at a bottom range, with signs of marginal recovery in business demand and a pragmatic approach from liquor companies to reduce supply growth to alleviate channel pressure. Future performance growth is expected to rise gradually [3][10][11] - New consumption trends are emerging due to changes in business models and consumer perceptions, focusing on consumer demand and reconstructing consumption scenarios and experiences. This is reflected in new channels within the food and beverage industry, where traditional retail channels face challenges such as traffic loss and declining profit margins [11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.5%, ranking 15th out of 28, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.6 percentage points. Leading sub-industries included health products (+8.5%), baked goods (+2.4%), and dairy products (+1.5%) [10][12] - Individual stocks such as Xianle Health, Youyou Foods, and Xiwang Foods showed significant gains, while Bai Run Foods, Ganyuan Foods, and ST Jia Jia experienced declines [12][18] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder increased by 30.6% year-on-year, while the price of fresh milk decreased by 10.0% year-on-year [18][21] - The price of pork increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while the price of live pigs decreased by 3.8% year-on-year [24][25] Liquor Industry News - Moutai's sales through major e-commerce channels grew by over 30% in the first four months of the year. The company is also implementing new policies to boost sales for events and weddings [44] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Foods. Shanxi Fenjiu faces short-term demand pressure but has high mid-term growth certainty. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. Ximai Foods is expected to improve profitability due to better raw material costs [4][51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the value of liquor allocation is stronger, and consumer goods are embracing new consumption trends. The food and beverage index increased by 0.5% from May 12 to May 16, ranking 15th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.6 percentage points. Sub-industries such as health products (+8.5%), baked goods (+2.4%), and dairy products (+1.5%) performed relatively well [3][10][12] - The report indicates that liquor companies are experiencing low revenue growth, which is already anticipated by the market. This is due to demand remaining at a low level and companies reducing channel burdens. The report suggests that liquor is currently at a bottom range, with signs of marginal recovery in business demand and a pragmatic approach from liquor companies to reduce supply growth to alleviate channel pressure. Future performance growth is expected to rise gradually [10][11] - New consumption trends are emerging, driven by changes in business models and consumer perceptions. This is reflected in the food and beverage industry through new channels. Traditional offline retail channels are facing challenges, leading to opportunities for upstream brand suppliers. Retailers are adopting differentiated product selections and focusing on quality, which benefits suppliers with strong brand and product capabilities [11][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.5%, ranking 15th out of 28, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.6 percentage points. Health products, baked goods, and dairy products showed leading performance [10][12] - Individual stocks such as Xianle Health, Youyou Foods, and Xiwang Foods saw significant gains, while Bai Run Foods, Ganyuan Foods, and ST Jia Jia experienced declines [12][18] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder increased by 30.6% year-on-year, while the price of fresh milk decreased by 10.0% year-on-year [18][21] - The price of pork increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while the price of live pigs decreased by 3.8% year-on-year [24][25] Liquor Industry News - Moutai's sales through major e-commerce channels grew by over 30% in the first four months of the year. The company is also implementing new policies to boost sales during banquets [44] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Ximai Foods. Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to have high growth certainty in the medium term, while Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development and increasing dividend rates. Ximai Foods is anticipated to improve profitability due to better raw material costs [4][51]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of the Hong Kong capital market, particularly in the new tea beverage sector, with significant IPO activities and investor interest [1][7][9] - The new tea beverage companies, including Hu Shang A Yi, have seen overwhelming subscription rates, with Hu Shang A Yi's IPO achieving a subscription rate of 3377 times and raising 272.8 million HKD [1][7] - The market has witnessed a wave of new listings from various consumer companies, indicating a trend where many brands are opting for Hong Kong as their listing destination [9][19] Group 2 - Hu Shang A Yi, founded by a couple in Shanghai, has expanded rapidly from a single store to over 9,176 stores by the end of 2024, driven by a focus on lower-tier cities [10][12][15] - The company is projected to generate revenue of 3.28 billion RMB in 2024, with nearly half of its income coming from third-tier cities and below [15] - The new tea beverage sector had previously experienced a lull in IPO activities, but recent successful listings have reignited investor interest and confidence in the market [16][19] Group 3 - The article discusses the changing consumer landscape, where younger consumers are driving new trends and preferences, leading to a shift in valuation logic for companies [20][23] - The success of companies like Mi Xue Bing Cheng and the emergence of new players have set valuation benchmarks, encouraging more consumer companies to pursue IPOs [26] - Policy changes favoring consumer companies in Hong Kong, such as lower profitability requirements for listings, have attracted many businesses to the market [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, indicating that leading companies in the sector have mid-term allocation value, with consumer staples showing stronger defensive characteristics and liquor exhibiting greater cyclical elasticity [5][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new products and channel changes within the food and beverage industry, as overall demand remains subdued. It highlights the potential for recovery in the liquor sector if economic conditions improve in the second half of 2025, alongside necessary industry adjustments [5][9]. - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as consumer staples like Yili and Qingdao Beer, which are expected to benefit from cost advantages and new retail trends [5][9][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The food and beverage sector underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.16 percentage points during the period from May 12 to May 16, 2025. Sub-sectors such as food processing and beverage dairy outperformed the index, while liquor and other categories lagged behind [33]. 2. Liquor Sector Insights - The report notes that Kweichow Moutai's bottle price remains stable at 2080 RMB, with Wuliangye around 920-930 RMB. Despite a slight recovery in demand during the May holiday, overall consumption in the liquor sector is expected to remain flat, with pressures anticipated in the second quarter [10][11]. - Liquor companies reported positive revenue growth in Q1 2025, but the growth rate has slowed significantly compared to previous years, indicating a trend of increasing differentiation among brands [10]. 3. Consumer Staples Sector Insights - The report forecasts a flat demand outlook for consumer staples in the second quarter and second half of 2025, with a continued cost advantage expected to support profitability. The dairy sector is highlighted for its potential revenue and profit improvement due to supply-demand rebalancing and supportive policies [11]. - Specific companies such as Yili and Qingdao Beer are recommended for their strong performance and growth potential in the context of new product launches and channel innovations [11]. 4. Key Company Updates - Companies like Zhou Hei Ya are focusing on enhancing store quality and expanding distribution channels, while Huazhi Wine is targeting mid-to-high-end consumers through its retail strategies [14][15]. - Gu Yue Long Shan is concentrating on high-end and youthful product lines, with a focus on maintaining price stability and enhancing brand appeal [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage sector [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, particularly in the liquor segment, while the snack sector shows high levels of prosperity [1] - The overall revenue and net profit growth rates for the food and beverage industry have slowed down in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, with a notable performance differentiation among sub-sectors [4][14] - The report highlights that the liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, while the snack industry continues to thrive [4][22] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Overview - In 2024, the food and beverage industry achieved a total revenue of CNY 10,877.93 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.91%, and a net profit of CNY 2,171.12 billion, growing by 5.51% [14] - For Q1 2025, the industry reported revenues of CNY 3,264.12 billion, a 2.52% increase year-on-year, and net profits of CNY 815.45 billion, growing by 0.27% [14] 2. Sub-sector Performance - **Liquor**: The liquor sector saw a revenue increase of 1.60% in Q1 2025, with net profits growing by 2.26%. High-end liquor brands like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showed strong resilience [15][22] - **Snacks**: The snack sector reported a remarkable revenue growth of 30.96% in Q1 2025, driven by the expansion of popular product categories and new sales channels [15][30] - **Soft Drinks**: The soft drink sector maintained a high level of prosperity, with leading companies showing significant revenue growth [4][30] - **Dairy Products**: The dairy sector showed signs of improvement in Q1 2025, with a notable reduction in profit decline compared to 2024 [4][30] - **Condiments**: The condiment sector is experiencing a recovery, with improved performance attributed to cost reductions in raw materials [4][30] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key companies within each sub-sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Youyou Foods in the liquor and snack sectors, respectively [4][5][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting consumption, indicating potential for recovery [4][5]