北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 铁拓机械借并购进军高端数控机床制造，北证已 49 家并购重组事件 ——北交所并购重组专题报告第十六期 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 《高端仪器智能化、数字化取得进展， 2025 年 归 母 净 利 润 预 计 同 比 增 214~237% — 北交所信息更新》 -2026.1.23 《美德乐（920119.BJ）：高精度输送领 军企业，锂电回暖 2025H1 在手订单升 至 18 亿—北交所新股申购报告》 -2026.1.20 《ELSD 打开第二增长曲线，2025 年 预 计 归 母 净 利 润 同 比 +64.48% ～ 85.95%—北交所信息更新》-2026.1.20 北 交 所 研 究 北交所是中小企业并购重组首选地，已 49 家次公布重要并购重组事件 从新"国九条"到"并购六条"，2024 年起，并购重组市场迎来了诸多积极信号。 产业整合、跨界并购，为产业发展注入了新的动力。2025 年 10 月 29 日，中共 北京市委金融委员会办公室制定《北京市关于助力并购重 ...

个股方面，本周中国平安、美的集团、海光信息、寒武纪-U、赣锋锂业获主力净流入居前，均超10亿 元；净流出方面，三花智控、中际旭创、香农芯创遭主力净流出居前，分别为61.4亿元、49.88亿元、 41.69亿元。 按申万一级行业来看，本周银行、非银金融、有色金属、煤炭、石油石化五大行业获得主力资金青睐， 其中，银行业获主力净流入47.52亿元；在净流出方面，电子、通信、计算机、电力设备、机械设备行 业均遭抛售超百亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the "steady and far-reaching" strategy is facilitating the transition of the spring market into subsequent phases without disrupting the established path of the spring market [1][2] - The spring market is characterized by incremental games and favorable conditions for long positions, supported by factors such as increased equity allocation by residents and active trading funds [2][3] - Short-term, the focus is on discovering bottom assets, with cyclical Alpha investments expanding towards more cyclical turning points, while the overall profit effect is nearing a high [1][4] Group 2 - The spring market is positioned as an extension and expansion phase of the high valuation area of the 2025 technology structural market, with expectations of a consolidation phase following the spring market [3] - Short-term, cyclical Alpha is becoming a key focus for market participants looking to exploit low positions, with notable sectors including commercial aerospace and AI applications showing rebound opportunities [4][7] - The long-term outlook remains positive for sectors such as technology and cyclical Alpha, with a focus on areas like overseas computing chains and AI applications [7][12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - Rolls-Royce SMR collaborates with Skanska to advance the prototype development of seismic bearings, which will be installed beneath the reactor building to ensure structural safety and functional integrity. This project aims to validate seismic technology and modular construction methods, thereby reducing the risks associated with fleet deployment. The 470 MW small modular reactor (SMR) has 90% of its components prefabricated in factories, and the standardized seismic bearing design has passed multiple seismic profile pre-certifications, allowing for global deployment without the need for customized redesigns [4]. - X-energy has signed a ten-year framework agreement with SGL Carbon to secure the supply of graphite materials necessary for the deployment of the Xe-100 small modular reactor. This agreement covers component support for the first four-unit project at the Seadrift site in Texas and capacity reservation for 12 units in Washington state. The Xe-100 is based on high-temperature gas-cooled reactor technology, with graphite being a critical component [5]. - The small modular reactor (SMR) is seen as a key solution to meet the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI). Tech giants are collaborating with SMR and nuclear fusion companies to create tailored energy solutions for data centers. The commercialization of fission is expected to occur earlier than fusion. Domestic company Jingye Intelligent is advancing its key technology development for SMR, with a clear technical route and an initial core R&D team established [6]. Company Summaries - Jingye Intelligent plans to establish a subsidiary, Jinghan Energy, focusing on power supply for AI data centers [6]. - Jiadian Co., Ltd. produces the main helium fan, which is the only power device in the primary circuit of fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, and its subsidiary, Harbin Electric Machinery, leads in nuclear main pump products within the nuclear power business segment [6]. - Guoguang Electric's filter and cladding systems are key components of the ITER project [6]. - Lansi Heavy Industry covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel reprocessing [6]. - Kexin Electromechanical has manufactured high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products, achieving import substitution for new fuel transport containers [6]. - Haili Heavy Industry services third and fourth-generation reactors as well as thermonuclear fusion reactors (ITER) [6]. - Jiangsu Shentong has secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade butterfly valves and nuclear-grade ball valves for newly constructed nuclear power projects in China [6].

Core Insights - The report indicates that since mid-January, the market's growth rate has slowed due to policy cooling signals, outflows of counter-cyclical funds, and a deceleration in the inflow of leveraged funds. The turnover rate of the entire A-share market peaked at 3.78% on January 14, followed by a decline from that high [2][8] - Historical instances of high turnover rates during bull markets have shown two patterns: style switching, where leading sectors weaken, and style diffusion, where strong sectors continue to perform well and expand into other thriving sectors. The report suggests that if the previous leading sectors were based on themes or policy speculation, they are likely to revert to stronger industrial trends after a high turnover rate [2][8] - The report identifies sectors with strong industrial trends and performance certainty, such as AI computing power, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals, as likely to maintain strong performance post-high turnover. Conversely, sectors driven mainly by thematic catalysts without clear fundamental improvements may face challenges [2][8] Market Changes - The report notes that since late December 2025, the spring market has accelerated due to the resolution of overseas liquidity disturbances and the influx of configuration funds, particularly in industries like AI and commercial aerospace. However, the sustainability of previously strong-performing sectors such as media, military industry, non-ferrous metals, and computers is questioned as the market enters the latter half of the spring rally [8][29] - The report highlights that the leading sectors during previous high turnover periods have included financials, consumer goods, and technology, with shifts observed in 2007, 2009, 2014, 2020, and 2025. For instance, in 2007, the leading sectors shifted from real estate and consumer to financials and resources, while in 2020, the focus moved from consumption to cyclical and new energy sectors [2][8][12] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and AI computing power are expected to continue their strong performance due to their solid industrial trends and earnings realization. Additionally, sectors benefiting from price increases, such as basic chemicals and new energy materials, are also highlighted as having potential for improvement [2][8][34] - The report suggests that the financial sector, particularly non-bank financials, is likely to show increasing elasticity as the market conditions improve. The potential for significant inflows from long-term funds, such as insurance and mutual funds, is also noted as a positive factor for the financial sector [34][36] - The report indicates that the consumer sector may see investment opportunities primarily in new consumption models and high-dividend attributes, particularly in service consumption areas that could benefit from policy catalysts and base effect reversals [34][36]

Group 1: Performance and Market Trends - The excess returns of high-performing industries are strongly correlated with the rhythm of the spring market, with significant excess returns observed during market uptrends[7] - In the spring market, high-performing industries tend to outperform when mainline industries experience adjustments, driven by high valuations or sentiment[14] - The current leading sectors, commercial aerospace and AI applications, are expected to remain central in the short term, supported by ongoing policy and industry trends[23] Group 2: Economic and Liquidity Conditions - The short-term economy is in a weak recovery trend, with fixed asset investment growth recorded at -3.80% in December, indicating significant drag from the real estate sector[26] - Short-term liquidity remains accommodative, with the central bank increasing market operations, resulting in a cumulative injection of 558.3 billion yuan by January 21[33] - The short-term risk appetite may further increase due to positive policy expectations and limited external risks[26] Group 3: Industry Configuration and Recommendations - Industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, electronics, and automobiles are expected to show relatively high profit growth in 2025, with notable increases in profit forecasts[26] - Current valuations in growing sectors like pharmaceuticals, automobiles, computers, and media are relatively low, suggesting potential for future gains[26] - It is recommended to focus on technology growth and certain cyclical industries, particularly those benefiting from supportive policies and improving fundamentals[26]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the market value of public funds heavily invested in the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), which reached 9.05 billion yuan as of Q4 2025, a decline of 12.19% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The report indicates that the decline is primarily due to profit-taking by investors in thematic funds, with a total redemption of 1.48 billion units, accounting for 52% of the total units before redemption [2][17] - The average net value growth rate of thematic funds in 2025 was 56.7%, significantly outperforming the BSE 50 index's growth of 38.8% [17] Public Fund Investment Trends - As of Q4 2025, the market value of public funds invested in the BSE accounted for 0.27% of the total A-share market, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [3][4] - The report notes that passive investment trends are ongoing, with index funds experiencing net subscriptions for three consecutive quarters, totaling 12.838 billion yuan as of Q4 2025, an increase of 7.55 billion yuan [2][13] - The report anticipates continued institutional investment in the BSE, with eight thematic funds pending market entry, including six index funds and two actively managed funds [2] Active Equity Fund Strategies - Active equity public funds are focusing on low-valuation growth stocks, with the valuation center of the top 10 stocks held by these funds dropping to 39 times earnings, below the valuation center of the BSE A-shares [2][20] - Key stocks of interest include Litong Technology (solid-state battery), Tongli Co. (lowest valuation on the BSE), and Lin Tai New Materials (low-valuation high-performance) [2][22] - The report also notes an increased focus on cyclical manufacturing sectors, such as basic chemicals and machinery, while reducing exposure to consumer sectors like beauty care and agriculture [2] Thematic Fund Performance - The report emphasizes that thematic funds have shown significant excess returns, with the average net value growth rate of thematic funds in 2025 being 56.7%, compared to the BSE 50's growth of 38.8% [17] - Specific funds that performed well include the "Hua Xia BSE Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Selected Two-Year Open Fund," which had the lowest redemption ratio [2][15] - The report identifies a trend of active equity public funds increasing their holdings in stocks like Litong Technology, Tongli Co., and Lin Tai New Materials, indicating a strategic shift towards promising sectors [22]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent stock market has shown an upward trend, leading to an increased preference for convertible bonds among incremental funds. The median price changes across various parity ranges of convertible bonds have risen, particularly for equity-sensitive convertible bonds, reflecting market pricing based on future expectations of underlying stock price increases [3][12]. - The report constructs a convertible bond valuation index based on individual bonds and their corresponding parity ranges, which helps track funding allocation and identify investment opportunities. Notable increases in valuations were observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, power equipment, machinery, and basic chemicals, attributed to price increases in these sectors and a potential reversal in the real estate chain's economic conditions [3][12]. - The report suggests that the current funding environment is relatively ample, supporting the notion that equity-sensitive convertible bonds may experience a "rise easy, fall hard" trend in the short term, indicating strong trading value, especially for popular equity-sensitive convertible bonds [3][12]. Group 2 - The weekly convertible bond strategy highlights that the inflow of incremental funds into the market is expected to continue, with a likely "spring excitement" market trend at the beginning of the year. The focus is on investment opportunities in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [4][17]. - As institutional investors' share in the convertible bond market increases, their expectations for the stock market are expected to have a deeper impact on convertible bond valuations. The report notes that the current investor sentiment towards the medium to long-term stock market remains optimistic, which may sustain demand for equity assets and provide support for convertible bond valuations [4][17]. - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds in sectors such as technology, driven by rising overseas computing power demand and domestic AI industrialization, as well as high-end manufacturing, which is expected to maintain high levels. Specific convertible bonds to watch include those from companies like Ruike, Qizhong, Yake, Daimai, Xingrui, Huachen, and Yubang [4][17].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for 2025 shows a cumulative disclosure rate of approximately 13.1% and a cumulative positive performance rate of about 40.3% among the disclosed companies [15]. Performance Forecast Summary - Among the 717 companies that disclosed performance forecasts, 180 companies (25.1%) expect an increase in performance, 45 companies (6.3%) expect a slight increase, 58 companies (8.1%) expect to turn losses into profits, and 6 companies (0.8%) expect to maintain profits. Conversely, 428 companies (59.7%) anticipate a decrease in performance, losses, or have uncertain forecasts [15][22]. - The disclosure rates for different boards are as follows: Shenzhen Main Board (10.34%), ChiNext (9.91%), Shanghai Main Board (19.25%), Sci-Tech Innovation Board (15.17%), and Beijing Stock Exchange (2.43%) [15]. Industry Performance Analysis Advanced Manufacturing - The mechanical equipment industry shows a remarkable net profit growth rate of 890.28%, with an index increase of 10.16%. The defense and military industry has a profit growth rate of 112.69%, aligning with the index increase of 12.76%. The power equipment industry maintains stable performance with a net profit growth of 12.79% and an index increase of 9.64% [27]. Pharmaceutical and Medical - The pharmaceutical and biological industry reports a net profit growth of 10.35%, with an index increase of 6.66%, indicating a moderate match between performance and market performance [3]. Cyclical Industries - The basic chemical and non-ferrous metal industries exhibit strong performance with profit growth rates of 135.50% and 57.02%, respectively, while the construction materials industry shows a profit growth of 58.19% [3]. - In contrast, the oil and petrochemical industry experiences a drastic decline in net profit by 692.13%, yet the index still rises by 7.74% [3]. Consumer Sector - The social services and automotive industries report extraordinary net profit growth rates of 1900.3% and 587.7%, respectively, with index increases of 9.71% and 5.63%. However, the light manufacturing and beauty care industries face significant profit declines of 65.43% and 59.09%, respectively, while their indices increase [3]. Technology (TMT) - The media industry shows a significant divergence with a net profit decline of 65.62%, despite an index increase of 17.69%. In contrast, the computer and electronics industries demonstrate a positive correlation between profit growth rates of 121.78% and 88.48% and index increases of 12.30% and 13.36% [4]. Financial and Real Estate - The real estate industry reports a staggering net profit decline of 100.5%, while the index increases by 6.66%. The banking and non-banking financial sectors show profit growth rates of 4.58% and 41.16%, respectively, with corresponding index declines [4].

Core Insights - The trade volume between China and Romania reached approximately 99 billion RMB in 2025, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [1] Summary by Category Exports - China's exports to Romania amounted to 69.48 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] - The main export products include electronic appliances, machinery, auto parts, low-value easy customs clearance goods, and furniture, which together account for 64% of total exports [1] Imports - China's imports from Romania totaled 29.48 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [1] - The primary import products consist of auto parts, electronic appliances, textiles and clothing, instruments and meters, and machinery, which collectively represent 86% of total imports [1]