Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's financial industry has made significant progress in opening up, with substantial relaxation of market access and deepening interconnectivity between domestic and foreign financial markets [1][2] - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have jointly issued an action plan to enhance cross-border financial services, focusing on improving settlement efficiency, optimizing hedging services, strengthening financing services, enhancing insurance protection, and refining comprehensive financial services [1][2] - The removal of foreign ownership limits in banking, securities, fund management, futures, and life insurance sectors marks a major step in financial service market access [2] Group 2 - The "Bond Connect" program achieved a total trading volume of 10.4 trillion yuan in 2024, facilitating foreign investors in allocating Chinese assets and managing risks through various hedging tools [2] - The concept of institutional opening is emphasized, transitioning from the flow of goods and factors to the opening of rules and systems, which aids in international cooperation and aligns with high international standards [2][3] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has implemented reforms to streamline foreign exchange business processes, enhancing the experience for quality clients by reducing documentation requirements [3] Group 3 - There is a strong emphasis on balancing openness with security, with plans to enhance regulatory capabilities and risk prevention measures in the context of increased openness [3] - The establishment of a robust risk prevention system is crucial to avoid systemic risks, including the improvement of macro-prudential policy frameworks and monitoring systems for cross-border capital flows [3]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/11 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 16.23% | 37.9% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 24.52% | 63.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | ...

(*文中全合约指交易所公布持仓成交数据的所有合约) 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓2644、增仓289，海证期货、持仓1700、增仓162，永安期货、持 仓1445、增仓99；空头减仓前三名分别是：中辉期货、持仓716、减仓-472，先融期货、持仓807、减仓-233，国泰君安、持仓 3746、减仓-210。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年6月11日焦炭主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 中信期货 | 5,488 | -1,182 | 银河期货 | 6,919 | -29 | 中信期货 | 4,767 | -142 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 4,971 | -258 | 中信期货 | 4,567 | -268 | 国泰君安 | 3,746 | -210 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 2,335 | -549 | 国泰君安 | 3, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, today the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.06%. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 0.52%, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The Nanhua Metal Index had the largest decline of -0.39%, and the Nanhua Precious Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.07%. Among the theme indices, the Energy Index had the largest increase of 1.11%, and the Oilseeds Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.37%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.12%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Fuel Oil Index had the largest increase of 1.74%, and the Plywood Index had the largest decline of -1.93% [1][3]. 3. Summary by Index Type 3.1 Comprehensive and Sector Indices | Index Name | Today's Close | Yesterday's Close | Points Change | Daily Change | Annualized Return Rate | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2400.26 | 2398.92 | 1.33 | 0.06% | -12.75% | 14.01% | -0.91 | | Precious Metal Index NHPMI | 1238.66 | 1239.55 | -0.89 | -0.07% | 24.46% | 18.46% | 1.32 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3443.70 | 3437.64 | 6.06 | 0.18% | -19.41% | 15.77% | -1.23 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6036.80 | 6060.55 | -23.75 | -0.39% | -15.83% | 15.45% | -1.02 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1598.39 | 1590.08 | 8.30 | 0.52% | -22.88% | 17.00% | -1.35 | | Non - ferrous Metal Index NHNF | 1633.92 | 1638.83 | -4.92 | -0.30% | -11.71% | 14.36% | -0.82 | | Black Index NHFI | 2303.82 | 2309.83 | -6.02 | -0.26% | -27.09% | 21.50% | -1.26 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1063.47 | 1060.97 | 2.50 | 0.24% | -3.27% | 9.99% | -0.33 | | Mini Composite Index NHCIMi | 1106.93 | 1104.77 | 2.16 | 0.20% | -1.87% | 13.26% | -0.14 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1003.48 | 992.49 | 10.99 | 1.11% | -5.49% | 30.62% | -0.18 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 930.36 | 927.57 | 2.79 | 0.30% | -2.81% | 20.20% | -0.14 | | Coal - based Chemical Index NHCCI | 1011.08 | 1009.75 | 1.33 | 0.13% | -3.88% | 18.24% | -0.21 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 919.14 | 920.24 | -1.10 | -0.12% | -5.79% | 21.20% | -0.27 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 713.42 | 716.04 | -2.63 | -0.37% | -5.49% | 15.66% | -0.35 | | Oilseeds Index NHOOl | 1190.91 | 1189.88 | 1.02 | 0.09% | -0.40% | 12.02% | -0.03 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 874.82 | 873.31 | 1.51 | 0.17% | -0.86% | 9.54% | -0.09% | [3] 3.2 Single - Variety Indices - The single - variety index with the largest increase was the Fuel Oil Index, rising 1.74%, and the single - variety index with the largest decline was the Plywood Index, falling -1.93% [3][4]. 3.3 Other Information - Some single - variety indices also showed changes in their positions. For example, the position change ratios of some products such as soda ash, eggs, and iron ore are provided, but the data presentation is incomplete [4]. - There are also some industry chain diagrams for parts of the energy - chemical and black sectors, showing the daily changes in the single - variety indices of related products [4][5].

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年6月10日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 740-800 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | | | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存 高位，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企 业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 800-785 9.5-14 | | | | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖 出看涨期权降低资金成本 | lg2507P ...

国债期货日报 2025年6月 10日 消息博弈 观点：部分止盈，持仓观望 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货高开低走，午盘拉升翻红后窄幅震荡，全天小幅收涨。公开市场共4545亿逆回购到期，央行新 做1986亿，当日净回笼1738亿。 日内消息： 1.财政部社会保障司负责人葛志昊6月10日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，在"一老一小"服务方面，财政部 积极配合有关部门完善养老育幼服务体系，推进社区支持的居家养老服务，加强失能老年人照护服务，促 进普惠托育服务高质量发展，抓紧建立实施育儿补贴制度，有关工作正在加快推进，确保更好满足人民群 众对"一老一小"方面的服务需求。 行情研判： 资金依旧不贵，公开市场净回笼2559亿元，但早盘银行间匿名隔夜依旧有大量资金在1.35%附近， DR001加权1.36%较周一进一步走低，但非银流动性小幅收敛，交易所资金价格有所上行，但利率水平不 高。 T主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 T净基差：主连 T基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 -0.2 0 0.2 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances, and the Sino-US talks bring about periodic emotional fluctuations. However, the characteristics of the domestic downstream off-season are gradually emerging, with insufficient new orders from gauze factories. The driving force for cotton price rebound is weak, and the cotton price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the previous high of 13,560 and the adjustment of the US foreign tariff policy [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.065 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0734 [3] - For inventory management when inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price decline, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell call options (CF509C13800) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (CF509P12800) at 150 - 200 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot cotton buying price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, high - quality resources are scarce, and the remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5] - Cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4.3998 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton that has not been hedged [7] - The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, a decline in the operating rate of gauze factories, general enthusiasm for raw material procurement, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and a slight increase in finished product inventory [7] Price Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,475, unchanged (0%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,520, up 25 (0.19%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,820, down 75 (-0.38%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,725, down 15 (-0.08%) [6][8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,223, up 98; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 45, down 25; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 30, up 20; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,230, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 891, up 25; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 677, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was at 14,743, up 123 (0.84%); CCI 2227B was at 12,886, up 106 (0.83%); CCI 2129B was at 15,060, up 132 (0.88%); FCI Index S was at 13,946, up 31 (0.22%); FCI Index M was at 13,761, up 32 (0.23%); FCI Index L was at 13,530, up 31 (0.23%) [9]

戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | 苯乙烯风险管理日报 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7350-745 0 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯上涨还可以锁定现货卖出 | EB2507 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 10, 2025 - Authors: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - Short - term market sentiment has improved due to factors like the China - US leaders' phone call and technical buying in ferroalloys. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off - season, the long - term trend of ferroalloys remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory negative factor is weakening, supply is low, and ferroalloys will continue the de - stocking trend. With the further reduction of Ningxia's electricity price this week and the arrival of the wet season in the South, the cost side is expected to decline. Coupled with the negative feedback expectation of the black market during the demand off - season, ferroalloys are expected to run weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 17.84%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 45.7% - Silicon manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 66.1% [2] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 利多解读 Silicon Iron - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron - Silicon iron has been falling continuously, and its low valuation has the possibility of a rebound - The total inventory of silicon iron shows a de - stocking trend [7] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry - The total inventory of silicon manganese shows a de - stocking trend - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and its low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5][8] 利空解读 Silicon Iron - The port inventory of thermal coal is at a high level, the coal sector remains weak, and there is room for further decline in the electricity cost of ferroalloys. This week, the electricity price of ferroalloys in Ningxia fell below 0.4 yuan/kWh to 0.395 yuan/kWh - The weekly operating rate of silicon iron production enterprises is 32.78%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. The weekly output of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.61% [9] Silicon Manganese - In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, the black market as a whole is declining, and the market doubts the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises is 35.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%. The weekly output of silicon manganese is 171,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [10] Daily Data Silicon Iron - On June 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 276 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton - The spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline - The number of warehouse receipts was 15,415, a day - on - day decrease of 47 and a week - on - week decrease of 1038 [10] Silicon Manganese - On June 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 248 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 124 yuan/ton - The spot prices in different regions were relatively stable or slightly increased - The number of warehouse receipts was 100,048, a day - on - day decrease of 717 and a week - on - week decrease of 4530 [10][11]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The external market is strong under the expectation of China-US talks, and the market expects the data in the June USDA report to be basically stable. As it gradually enters the critical period of US soybean planting, the market is more sensitive to weather impacts. The domestic market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The supply pressure in the near - term makes the rebound of the M09 contract lack sustainable momentum. Under the background of the strong external market, it is difficult to short - sell the near - term contract alone. Therefore, it is more appropriate to go long on the far - term contract when the long - term logic of the far - term contract is not falsified [4] - There are multiple factors supporting the far - term contract, including the cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks, the bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation, and the support from the Brazilian export premium [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1746 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.309 [3] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks is favorable for the far - term contract [9] - The bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation [9] - The support from the Brazilian export premium on the far - term contract price [9] Bearish Factors - The large supply pressure in the second - quarter carry - over and the third quarter will keep the spot basis weak, while the futures market is strong before the weather - related speculation [6] - The estimated soybean arrivals are 11 million tons in the subsequent part of June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US talks needs to be monitored in the fourth quarter [6] - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - term, the rigid demand is limited. With the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and the China - Canada trade relationship should be focused on [6] Price and Spread - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) and rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3068, up 8 (0.26%) [7][10] - The price differences between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal are presented. For instance, the M01 - 05 spread is 336, up 4 [11] Import Cost and Profit - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans (23% tariff), Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4506.8065 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily, and the import profit is - 692.2415 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily [12]