Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [14] Core Insights - Since Q4 2025, the growth rate of the express delivery industry has been declining, with growth rates of 7.9%, 5.0%, and 2.3% in October, November, and December 2025 respectively. This slowdown has accelerated the differentiation within the industry, with leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express outperforming second-tier competitors [2][7][23] - Key factors influencing the industry include: 1) The introduction of precise tax audits for e-commerce, increasing compliance costs for merchants; 2) The "anti-involution" measures in express delivery, which have set a clear bottom line for competition and raised logistics costs [7][30][36] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to experience a clearer turning point in differentiation, with leading companies likely to continue gaining market share and potentially benefiting from volume, profit, and valuation improvements [8][42] Summary by Sections E-commerce Compliance Costs - The e-commerce tax collection has been strengthened, significantly increasing compliance costs for merchants. The introduction of the "Internet Platform Enterprises Tax Information Reporting Regulations" in June 2025 marks a new phase of tax compliance in the e-commerce sector [30][33] - The tax burden for online merchants has increased, particularly for those with annual revenues exceeding 5 million, as the advantages of non-compliance diminish [30][34] Anti-Involution Measures - The "anti-involution" measures have stabilized express delivery prices, leading to improved profitability for express companies. Since September 2025, the price growth rate has turned positive, enhancing the single-ticket profitability of express services [36][37] - The focus on maintaining a safe bottom line in the industry is expected to continue, with the postal administration prioritizing the regulation of "involution-style" competition in 2026 [36] Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry is anticipated to return to single-digit growth rates, with a clearer differentiation among companies. Leading firms with strong product value propositions and solid financial structures are expected to gain market share [42] - The report highlights the potential for valuation premiums to recover for leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express, as their market share and profit expectations improve [42][46]

当前我国农村物流快递发展成效显著，行政村快递服务覆盖率已达95%。但纵观整个快递市场，各家快 递公司的上门服务存在明显差异，偏远地区仍有不足。多位网友通过交汇点新闻客户端"我请代表委员 捎句话"栏目，提出破解农村快递上门难题、助力乡村振兴的需求。 分析农村物流快递上门的发展"瓶颈"，省政协委员，中国邮政集团有限公司镇江市分公司运管部揽投管 理员、镇江市总工会副主席(兼)周江认为，末端投递能力不足与资源协同性差是两大突出问题。"农村 地域广阔、人口分散导致上门配送成本高、效率低，而邮政、客运、快递等配送渠道未能有效打通，资 源重复投入现象较为明显。" □ 本报记者林惠虹 为此，周江提出四条建议：一是深化资源整合，强化央企担当，优化三级物流体系，推广"邮快合作、 交邮融合"模式，由邮政统筹偏远地区上门派送，其他快递企业集中分拣至乡镇；二是优化盈利模式， 在村级站点叠加农产品收购、农资销售、便民缴费等多元业务，以增值收入补贴上门成本，对生鲜、高 价值快递实行差异化收费；三是科技赋能升级，推广无人车、智能柜在农村的应用，针对分散村落设置 移动取送点，通过数字化系统规划最优配送路线；四是完善政策保障，建议政府加大专项资 ...

（来源：劳动午报） 转自：劳动午报 本报讯（记者 刘欣欣） 近日，朝阳区2025年基层工会服务站评价结果揭晓，东湖街道总工会服务站获 评A+档第一名。此次成绩的取得来源于该街道总工会在组织建设、阵地搭建、精准服务及权益保障等 方面的扎实深耕。 2025年，东湖街道总工会围绕职工需求，以多元模式深耕服务，全力打造"职工暖心之家"。在组织建设 方面，该街道总工会创新采用"摆摊设点+入户走访+专场服务"模式，全年新建单独基层工会22家，涵 盖美团、泡泡玛特乐园等企业，实现百人以上企业建会率100%。同步优化入会流程，推行"网上入 会""指尖入会"，确保入会申请"日清日结"，让职工"手机点一点，就能找到组织"。 服务阵地建设方面，东湖街道总工会持续发力，39家户外劳动者驿站遍布街头巷尾。该街道总工会还指 导辖区企业建成100家工会驿站，东湖街道工会服务站及区域性职工之家获评全国总工会"最美工会户外 劳动者服务站点"。在这里，职工累了能歇脚、渴了能喝水、雨天能避雨，实实在在的便利让职工真切 感受到"工会服务就在身边"。 去年，东湖街道总工会各类文体与服务活动接连开展，80余场活动惠及职工超5000人次。健身操、亲子 嘉 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the shipping industry, highlighting the upward potential in both oil and dry bulk markets [7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000, a week-on-week increase of 17% [10][11]. - The BDI index has shown resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, up 21.9% week-on-week, with significant increases in various vessel types [23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Shipping - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a significant rise in VLCC freight rates, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which saw a 27% increase to $127,000 per day [10][11]. - The market fundamentals are weakening, with a slowdown in cargo availability and a lack of new cargo in the US Gulf market, leading to a decline in overall market activity [10][11]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index has shown a remarkable performance during the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of 89% in January, averaging 1759 points [24]. - The strong performance of the BCI index, which increased by 121% year-on-year, is attributed to supply constraints and steady demand from Brazil and West Africa [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for upward trends in both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [27]. - For dry bulk, the report suggests companies like Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics [28]. Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in domestic air passenger volume, with average ticket prices rising by 4.3% [29]. - The SCFI index has decreased by 10% week-on-week, indicating a decline in container shipping rates [50].

Group 1: Metal Sector - Shandong Gold - Shandong Gold's net profit forecast for 2026 is projected to reach CNY 108.14 billion, with a PE ratio of 25.21[10] - The company has a resource reserve of 2,058 tons and an equity reserve of 787 tons, indicating significant undervaluation potential[14] - The recovery of the Jiaoji Gold Mine is expected to contribute 10 tons of gold annually once fully operational[14] Group 2: Building Materials Sector - Oriental Yuhong - Oriental Yuhong's operating performance is expected to bottom out, with net profits projected at CNY 18 billion in 2025, increasing to CNY 29 billion by 2027[21] - The company plans to increase revenue through retail price hikes of 3-4% and overseas expansion, potentially adding CNY 25 billion in revenue from international operations[21] - The domestic construction materials market is expected to see a 47% decline in sales area compared to 2021, leading to significant supply exit in the sector[18] Group 3: Transportation Sector - ZTO Express - ZTO Express is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 104.45 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio of 11.80[10] - The company has improved its cash flow, with cash reserves exceeding CNY 300 billion and a debt ratio below 30%[44] - The competitive landscape in the express delivery sector is stabilizing, with a focus on improving profitability and operational efficiency[43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are driving up VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 17%. The Middle East to China route is reported at $127,000 per day, up 27% week-on-week [1][10]. - The BDI index is showing resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, a week-on-week increase of 21.9%. The average BDI for January is reported at 1759 points, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2][23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the market showing signs of weakness as the supply of cargo from the Middle East is tapering off [1][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price has risen to $69.83 per barrel, a 9.6% increase since January 22, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply [2][11]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The BDI index has shown strong performance despite seasonal trends, with significant increases in various sub-indices: BCI up 35.8%, BPI up 8.1%, BSI up 4.0%, and BHSI up 3.0% week-on-week [2][23]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to recent storms affecting shipping schedules, while demand remains robust due to favorable weather conditions for iron ore exports from Brazil [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for oil transportation, and Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping for dry bulk [7][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [7][62].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is advised to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight decline in flight volumes, but major airlines like China Southern Airlines and Air China are expected to turn profitable in 2025 [4]. - The shipping sector shows a significant increase in dry bulk shipping index (BDI) by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the SCFI index down by 9.7% week-on-week, reflecting weak demand in the long-distance shipping market [20]. - The export container shipping index (CCFI) is at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a similar growth [53]. - Major airlines are expected to see improved profitability, with Air China and China Southern Airlines projected to return to profit in 2025 [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume in December 2025 was 323 million, up 8.52% year-on-year, while freight volume decreased by 2.60% [72]. - The road freight volume for the same period was 37.97 billion tons, showing a slight increase of 0.62% year-on-year [77].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the transportation sector [5] Core Insights - The dry bulk freight rates have unexpectedly rebounded during the off-season, with significant increases noted in large vessels. The VLCC market saw a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and strong demand for commodities like iron ore and grain [1][2] - The report highlights key companies to watch, including China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, Haitong Development, COSCO Shipping International, and CIMC Enric [1][2] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The VLCC freight rates surged again, while dry bulk freight rates showed an unexpected off-season recovery, particularly for larger vessels. The BDI index reached 2148 points on January 30, with the BCI at 3507 points [1][2] - The transportation sector index fell by 1.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points. The top-performing segments were shipping, ports, and highways, with gains of 2.19%, 1.42%, and 0.10% respectively [21][22] Travel - Domestic flight ticket bookings for the upcoming Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year. The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector due to recovering demand and supportive policies [3][13] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing a resurgence in freight rates, with the index for oil transport from the Persian Gulf to China rising to WS137.2 points, an increase of 42.6 points from the previous day. The dry bulk freight rates are also on the rise, supported by strong demand for iron ore and grain [14][15] - Key companies in the shipping sector include China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping International, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [17] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: the overseas expansion driven by the rapid growth of e-commerce and the internal competition dynamics that favor leading companies. Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 交通运输 干散货运价淡季回升，继续重视油运 周观点：VLCC 运价周五再度冲高；干散货运价淡季超预期回升，大船更为明 显。VLCC 市场，本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 2 月上旬货盘基本收尾，租家出货 节奏放缓，运价在周四之前高位回落；随着运价下跌，船东对进一步下跌表现 出较强抵抗意愿，潜在地缘政治风险再度升温，1 月 30 日，波斯湾至中国 27 万吨原油运价指数升至 WS137.2 点，较 1 月 29 日上涨 42.6 点。受矿石、粮 食等品种发货需求较好支撑，本周干散货运价持续回升，BDI 于 1 月 30 日收 于 2148 点，大船涨势更为明显，BCI 于 1 月 30 日收于 3507 点。重点关注招 商轮船、中远海能、海通发展、中远海运国际和中集安瑞科等。 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.40%， 跑输上证指数 0.96 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.44%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航运、港口、高速公路，涨幅分别为 2.19 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a recommendation for Haicheng Co. due to its focus on smart logistics [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints ease, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. - The dry bulk shipping index (BDI) increased by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk demand [34]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, with domestic routes showing strong performance [53]. - Major airlines are expected to improve profitability, with China National Airlines and Southern Airlines highlighted for their potential [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year in December 2025, while road freight volume showed a slight increase of 0.62% [72]. - The report notes a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 3.32% decrease week-on-week [34]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SF Holding for its valuation and resilience, and in Haicheng Co. for its smart logistics initiatives [2][3]. - The aviation sector is also recommended for investment, particularly in China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4].