1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global copper market will face a complex situation with the balance between "swinging Fed monetary policy" and "Chinese demand support." The copper price will be affected by multiple factors such as overseas liquidity expectations, trade policy fluctuations, and domestic structural policy support. The long - term demand for copper is underpinned by the global green transition [22][70]. - The supply side is in a tight - balance state. The growth of global copper mine production is limited, and the copper concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) remains deeply negative. The global refined copper production growth rate may turn negative, marking a mandatory adjustment in the capacity expansion cycle [24][47]. - The demand side shows structural differentiation. Traditional sectors like real estate and home appliances will continue to drag down demand, while emerging sectors such as new - energy vehicles, AI computing power infrastructure will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. The overall copper demand growth rate will slow down, but the quality and structural characteristics of demand will be more prominent [52][71]. - In 2026, the copper price is expected to remain at a high level, with increased volatility. The upside potential depends on the supply recovery progress and the growth intensity of emerging demand [2][71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Futures Market Review - The copper market in 2025 experienced a historical - level market. The overall global copper price showed a wide - range volatile trend due to the implementation of US tariffs and the continuous decline of copper concentrate processing fees [5]. - **First stage (January - March)**: Policy expectations increased, and the price rose moderately. The pre - Spring Festival downstream inventory - building demand supported the price, and the launch of the US "232 Clause" investigation on imported copper affected the global trade flow, causing the price of the Shanghai copper main contract to gradually rise [6]. - **Second stage (April - June)**: The impact of tariffs and the tight supply - demand situation led to a deep V - shaped rebound in the price. The implementation of US tariffs and China's counter - measures increased market uncertainty, causing the copper price to plunge. Subsequently, the easing of Sino - US trade relations and supply - side disturbances supported the price to rebound [7]. - **Third stage (July - September)**: The price fluctuated in a high - level range, with policies and events intertwined. Domestic policies provided support for industrial metal demand, but the US tariff increase on some copper products caused the price to fall. Later, the supply - tightening expectation due to mine accidents drove the price to rise again [8]. - **Fourth stage (October - December)**: The macro - environment became more favorable, and the supply anxiety intensified, leading to a strong breakthrough in the price. The reduction of Sino - US tariff risks, the easing of geopolitical tensions, and the release of domestic policies boosted market risk appetite. The planned reduction of copper production capacity in 2026 and the increase in LME copper cancellation warrants triggered concerns about supply shortages, pushing the copper price to a new high [9][10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Foreign Macro - In 2025, the US dollar index declined from a high level and fluctuated below the 100 mark. The Fed cut interest rates three times during the year, but the process was full of differences. The December interest - rate cut was regarded as "hawkish." In 2026, the Fed's decision - making will be more complex, with only 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts expected, and the rhythm will be slow and prone to reversal [12][13]. - The US tariff policy on copper has caused significant fluctuations in the price difference between COMEX and LME copper. Although the direct impact of the tariff policy on the copper market has weakened in the fourth quarter of 2025, the potential policy risk may still affect the market in the future [16]. 3.2.2 Domestic Macro - In 2025, China's economy maintained stable growth, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters. The economic structure was continuously optimized, and the new and old kinetic energy transformation was in an orderly manner. The "15th Five - Year Plan" provides a solid demand - side expectation and structural upward driving force for the copper price [19][20]. - In 2026, as the starting year of the "15th Five - Year Plan," China is expected to implement expansionary fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to further consolidate the economic recovery, which will continue to support the copper price [20]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 Copper Mine Supply - In 2025, the global copper mine supply entered a low - growth stage. The actual growth rate of copper concentrate production in 2025 may be only 1%. In 2026, the tight - balance pattern of "insufficient increment and frequent disturbances" is expected to continue [24]. - Newly -投产 projects have limited incremental contributions, and their production - climbing progress and initial operation stability need to be observed. At the same time, geopolitical and operational risks pose continuous threats to copper mine production, and the nominal new production of global copper mines in 2026 is expected to be only 53.3 million tons [26][28]. 3.3.2 Smelting End - In 2025, the global copper smelting industry faced the contradiction of "ore shortage" and "capacity expansion." The copper concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) remained deeply negative, and the traditional profit model based on processing fees was no longer sustainable. The industry entered a "negative - profit" production state [32]. - In 2026, the difficulties in the smelting industry are difficult to be substantially alleviated. The possibility of passive production cuts by domestic smelting enterprises is expected to increase significantly [35]. 3.3.3 Refined Copper - In 2025, the global refined copper output still increased due to the support of by - product benefits and the launch of new production capacity. However, in 2026, under the dual drive of policy intervention and market losses, passive production cuts will become the main theme of the industry, and the growth of global smelting capacity will slow down significantly. It is expected that the refined copper output in 2026 will fall below 13 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 2.5% [37][47]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - In October 2025, China's imports of unforged refined copper cathodes and cathode profiles decreased, while exports increased significantly. The decrease in imports was mainly due to the transfer of some African and South American copper sources to the US and the deterioration of import parity. The increase in exports was due to the opening of the export window caused by the increase in copper prices and the weak demand of downstream processing enterprises [48][49]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis 3.4.1 Traditional Consumption Areas - In 2025, the growth rate of power grid investment was 7.2% from January to October, and it is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 3 - 3.5% in 2026. The growth rate of home appliance consumption may decline significantly in 2026 due to the weakening of policy incentives and the high cost of raw materials [54][57]. - The real estate market continued to decline in 2025, and it is expected that the copper demand in the construction field will still face negative growth in 2026, dragging down the overall copper consumption [59]. 3.4.2 Emerging Areas - In the new - energy field, although the growth rate of photovoltaic and wind power installations may slow down in 2026, the new - energy vehicle market is still a stable driving force for copper demand growth. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles reached 53.2% in 2025, and it is expected to continue to increase in 2026 [60][61]. - The AI computing power infrastructure is emerging as a new growth point for copper demand. It is estimated that the annual copper demand of newly - built data centers will reach an average of about 400,000 tons in the future, and may reach a peak of 572,000 tons around 2028 [63]. 3.4.3 Inventory End - Since February 2025, the copper inventory of the three major exchanges has shown a differentiated trend, with the LME copper inventory reaching a historical low. In 2026, the global copper inventory is expected to enter a new stage of regional tight - balance normalization, and the inventory accumulation speed will slow down [65]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In 2026, the global macro - environment will seek a new balance between "swinging Fed monetary policy" and "Chinese demand support." The supply side will remain tight, and the demand side will show structural differentiation. The copper price is expected to remain at a high level, and its upward potential depends on the supply recovery progress, domestic demand - stimulation policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [70][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The consumption of copper is under short - term pressure, while supply concerns and macro - expectations jointly boost the copper futures market. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2602 closed at 93,180 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 1.05% week - on - week. The overall trend of Shanghai copper this week was volatile. The over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, pressure on China's November fixed - asset investment and real estate, and accelerated contraction of the eurozone's December manufacturing PMI affected the market. Although the expectation of US interest rate cuts boosted the market, there were still disturbances in reality. The consumption was weak, and the copper spot premium dropped significantly [2]. 2. Operating Logic - **Macro**: US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool. The Bank of Japan emphasized prudent actions in the future. China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction [2][39][42]. - **Supply**: The port inventory of copper concentrates increased week - on - week but was lower year - on - year. The BM negotiation was still deadlocked. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year, with the impact of previous maintenance restored [2]. - **Demand**: The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year - on - year last week. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to decline, but the local price rose slightly this week [2]. - **Inventory**: The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate [2]. 3. Influencing Factors Analysis Price Data - The consumption was weak, and the spot premium dropped significantly. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium weakened week - on - week [11][12]. Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by 0.57 dollars/ton to - 43.65 dollars/ton week - on - week and remained at a low level. The port inventory of copper concentrates was 680,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week but lower year - on - year. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased week - on - week. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products from January to November was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate. The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year and increased by 1% compared with the same period last month. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to continue to decline. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [16][19][22]. Macroeconomic Data - China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction. US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool [39][42][43]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Considering the over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, the Bank of Japan's emphasis on prudent actions in the future, weak consumption, significant decline in copper spot premium, and low year - on - year port inventory of copper concentrates, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares rose over 5%, reaching HKD 38.26 with a trading volume of HKD 473 million, driven by soaring LME copper prices nearing USD 12,000 per ton [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiangxi Copper's stock increased by 5.63% as of the report, indicating strong market interest [1] - The trading volume was reported at HKD 473 million, reflecting active investor engagement [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - LME copper prices have surged to record highs, approaching USD 12,000 per ton, highlighting robust demand and constrained supply [1] - Goldman Sachs' recent commodity report for 2026 emphasizes copper's continued attractiveness due to these market dynamics [1] Group 3: Company Fundamentals - Guoxin Securities noted that Jiangxi Copper benefits from low costs in its large domestic open-pit copper mines, ensuring stable profitability [1] - The rise in precious metal prices further reduces copper mining costs, enhancing profit margins [1] - The company is set to benefit from the production ramp-up of the world's largest open-pit tungsten mine and is expected to emerge from a low earnings period with significant profit potential [1]

铜周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 美国通胀降温，铜价震荡上行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周铜价震荡上行，美国11月CPI降温强化明年降息基准 预期，美联储鸽派官员支持明年缓慢降息，认为当前政策 利率仍比中性利率高出50-100个基点，日央行兑现加息或 引发全球套利市场的结构性变革，但对金属市场影响较为 有限；国内方面，中国高技术工业产出增速较快，社零维 持稳健增长，中央经济工作会议释放政策延续的积极信 号，消费品以旧换新政策持续推进；基本面来看，海外精 矿维持紧缺，全球非美地区库存偏低，国内终端消费稍显 乏力，内贸现货转向贴水，近月盘面C结构走扩。 ⚫ 整体来看，温和的通胀数据将宽松叙事朝着有利于鸽派的 方向 ...

铜行业观点交流 20251221 摘要 2025 年全球精炼铜供应因矿山事件和智利供应问题减少至少 50 万吨， 抵消了部分地区需求疲软的影响，使得市场对铜价的强预期成为现实。 中国市场 2025 年铜消费增速虽经多次调整，最终稳定在 3.8%，高于 年初预期，主要受抢出口、光伏风电政策和价格下跌等因素驱动，对全 球铜价形成支撑。 10 月后铜价快速上涨对终端企业产能利用率和订单产生冲击，产能利用 率从 90%-100%降至 60%-80%，但长期来看，高铜价将被产业链逐 步消化，并推动铝代铜现象发展。 空调行业正制定铝管替代铜管标准，预计 2026 年 1 月实施，若推广成 功，每年或减少十几万吨至二三十万吨铜用量，但具体影响取决于市场 接受度。 美国纽约地区铜库存高达 46 万吨，可满足两个季度用量，且持续增加， 受特朗普政府可能加征关税影响，预计 12 月单月进口量或超 10 万吨， 明年上半年将持续影响市场。 Q&A 请您回顾一下 2025 年铜价的表现，并分享对未来铜价走势的看法。 2025 年铜价表现出强预期、弱现实的特点。需求方面，海外市场表现较预期 更弱，尤其是一些传统消费大国和新兴国家，如日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CPI and core CPI in the US in November were significantly lower than expected, increasing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut and boosting risk assets with the expectation of loose liquidity [3] - The processing fee remained at a negative low, and the tight situation at the mine end was unresolved. Antofagasta signed a long - term contract with Chinese smelters at a zero processing fee, highlighting long - term supply constraints [3] - High copper prices suppressed purchasing sentiment. Downstream cable and home appliance enterprises maintained a "buy - as - you - use" strategy. Copper product output decreased by 10.2% month - on - month, and terminal consumption was weak [3] - The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports increased by 0.7 tons month - on - month to 68.1 tons, and the social inventory of refined copper increased to 17.45 tons, showing inventory accumulation pressure [3] - Copper prices will maintain a high - level shock. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the tightening at the mine end provide bottom support, but cautious demand and inventory accumulation pressure limit the upside space, and the volatility will intensify under the game between long and short positions [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 93,180 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.96%, the position was 237,652 lots, an increase of 49,003 lots, and the trading volume was 172,714 lots [5] - The weighted average price of the Shanghai copper index was 93,106 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.04%, the position was 622,036 lots, a decrease of 9,157 lots, and the trading volume was 288,527 lots [5] - The price of international copper was 83,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.77%, the position was 3,975 lots, a decrease of 609 lots, and the trading volume was 7,038 lots [5] - The price of LME copper for 3 months was 11,727 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.9%, the position was 239,014 lots, a decrease of 38,282 lots, and the trading volume was 31,364 lots [5] - The price of COMEX copper was 542.45 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 1.16%, the position was 143,258 lots, an increase of 282 lots, and the trading volume was 33,499 lots [5] 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper was 92,350 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,245 yuan, a decline of 1.33% [11] - The price of Shanghai Wumao was 92,480 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,350 yuan, a decline of 1.44% [11] - The price of Guangdong Nanchu was 92,670 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,250 yuan, a decline of 1.33% [12] - The price of Yangtze Non - ferrous was 92,640 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,300 yuan, a decline of 1.38% [12] - The premium of Shanghai Non - ferrous was - 160 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 140 yuan, an increase of 700% [12] - The premium of Shanghai Wumao was - 170 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 140 yuan, an increase of 466.67% [12] - The premium of Guangdong Nanchu was - 150 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 120 yuan, an increase of 400% [12] - The premium of Yangtze Non - ferrous was - 25 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 95 yuan, a decrease of 135.71% [12] - The premium of LME copper (spot/3 months) was - 13.89 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 38.65 US dollars, a decrease of 156.1% [12] - The premium of LME copper (3 months/15 months) was 171.75 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 82.7 US dollars, a decrease of 32.5% [12] 3.3 Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The import profit and loss of copper was - 1,053.43 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 108.85 yuan, a decrease of 9.37% [13] - The copper concentrate TC was - 43.25 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.42 US dollars, an increase of 0.98% [13] - The copper - aluminum ratio was 4.2293, a weekly increase of 0.014, an increase of 0.33% [13] - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 4,292.51 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 285.85 yuan, an increase of 7.13% [13] 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts were 45,739 tons, an increase of 13,176 tons, an increase of 40.46% [18] - The total international copper warehouse receipts were 1,053 tons, a decrease of 4,611 tons, a decrease of 81.41% [18] - The Shanghai copper inventory was 95,805 tons, an increase of 6,416 tons, an increase of 7.18% [18] - The LME copper registered warehouse receipts were 102,725 tons, an increase of 3,525 tons, an increase of 3.55% [18] - The LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts were 61,550 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons, a decrease of 7.65% [21] - The LME copper inventory was 164,275 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons, a decrease of 0.95% [21] - The COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts were 264,839 tons, an increase of 8,213 tons, an increase of 3.2% [21] - The COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts were 194,725 tons, an increase of 4,053 tons, an increase of 2.13% [21] - The COMEX copper inventory was 459,564 tons, an increase of 12,266 tons, an increase of 2.74% [21] - The copper mine port inventory was 66.4 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons, a decrease of 2.5% [21] - The social inventory was 41.82 tons, an increase of 0.43 tons, an increase of 1.04% [21] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In October 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative output was 13.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [24] - In October 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%, and the cumulative output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [24] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In November 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rods was 15.84 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 63.31%, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [26] - In November 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rods was 8.19 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 23.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.73% [26] - In November 2025, the total annual capacity of copper strips was 3.59 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 66.44%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.62% [26] - In November 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 54.08%, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [26] - In November 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 59.69%, a month - on - month increase of 7.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.42% [26] 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In November 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrates was 2.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%, and the cumulative import volume was 27.619304 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [30] - In October 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 55,239 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%, and the cumulative import volume was 630,288 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [30] - In October 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 279,944 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22%, and the cumulative import volume was 2,816,507 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [30] - In October 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 196,607 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the cumulative import volume was 1,895,460 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [30] - In November 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%, and the cumulative import volume was 4,880,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [30]

Economic Indicators - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1][8] - The increase in RMB loans for the first eleven months was 15.36 trillion yuan [1][6] - As of the end of November, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 336.99 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [1][6] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 112.89 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1][6] - The cash in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.74 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1][6] Policy Initiatives - A joint notice was issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption [1][14] - The notice emphasizes support for key areas of consumption, including goods, services, and new consumption models, proposing 11 policy measures to stimulate demand [14][46] Real Estate Market - In November, the new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [1][16] - The decline in new residential prices in second and third-tier cities was 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, indicating a slight narrowing of the decline [16][48] International Developments - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since September 1995 [19][20] - In the U.S., the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected, leading to increased market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January [21][21]

近期，铜市场在年末的特殊氛围中呈现出复杂多变的态势，价格走势牵动着众多投资者的心弦。从隔夜 市场表现到各大机构的预测，再到全球铜供应格局的变化，诸多因素交织，共同影响着铜价的未来走 向。 近期市场表现：伦铜沪铜齐震荡 隔夜市场，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜震荡走弱，最新收盘报价11619美元/吨，收跌67美元，跌 幅0.57%，成交量19885手减少3296手，持仓量350621手减少435手。市场在关键的美国就业数据公布前 保持谨慎，且年末流动性趋于稀薄，使得价格波动有所放大。 周二晚间沪铜走势同样震荡，盘面走势显得疲弱，主力月2602合约最新收盘价报91830元/吨，跌620 元，跌幅0.67%。今日（12月17日）早盘，沪铜主力2602合约低开，延续夜盘跌势，开盘价报91940元/ 吨，跌510元。苏克顿金融公司分析师指出，由于年底流动性不足，金属市场在年底容易出现剧烈波 动，基础金属价格波动日益加剧。 价格驱动因素：供应与需求的双重博弈 供应端：中断与缺口并存 今年以来，铜价一路飙升，屡创新高，供应中断是重要推手之一。全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司 （Codelco）产量徘徊于四分之一世纪低点 ...

长江铜业网讯：今日沪铜主力2602合约低开，开盘价报92560元/吨，跌190元。 长江铜价copper.ccmn.cn短评：美11月CPI重回"2时代"助美元反弹，隔夜伦铜收跌0.13%；国内股指下行 拖累市场情绪，供应虽紧张但现货贴水加深、成交疲软，今现铜或下跌。 【铜期货市场】美11月CPI重回"2时代"助美元反弹，隔夜伦铜震荡走弱；最新收盘报价11727元/吨，收 跌16美元，跌幅0.13%，成交量14534手减少2296手，持仓量344850手增加611手；晚间沪铜盘中涨跌波 动，尾盘勉强翻红，主力月2602合约最新收盘价报92870元/吨，涨120元，涨幅0.13%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月18日伦铜最新库存量报164275公吨，较上个交易日减少2650公吨，跌幅 1.59%。 宏观层面，美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，11 月美国未季调 CPI 年率录得 2.7%，低于市场预期的 3.1%；剔除食品和能源价格后的核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，同样低于预期，为 2021 年 3 月以来新低，预 期值为 3%。尽管这份因政府停摆推迟发布的报告显示物价压力有所缓和，但因报告编制存在问题，经 ...

花旗发布研报称，虽然预期江西铜业股份的铜冶炼业务毛利明年将同比下降，且长期冶炼及精炼业务有 下行压力，但预料铜、金及硫酸价格提高，将推动公司明年的整体毛利上升。该行认为目前估值具吸引 力，A股及H股均维持"买入"评级。 江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)午后涨超4%，涨4.2%，报36.68港元，成交额7.37亿港元。 消息面上，江西铜业上周五再次提高对英国上市公司SolGold的收购报价至每股28便士，总价值约8.42 亿英镑(11.3亿美元)，这是江西铜业在三周内发起的第三次报价。若此次收购最终成功，将显著增强江 西铜业的资源储备，并有望使其远期矿产铜产量实现翻倍增长。SolGold的核心资产是位于厄瓜多尔的 卡斯卡贝尔(Cascabel)铜金矿项目，该项目被业界认为是全球顶级的未开发铜金矿藏之一。 ...