Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the outlook for the Macau gaming industry has become more optimistic, with an upward revision of the total gaming revenue forecast for 2025, expecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [1] - The EBITDA forecast for 2025 has also been raised by 3%, with an anticipated year-on-year growth of 9% [1] - The estimated industry EBITDA for Q2 2025 is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year (6% quarter-on-quarter), reaching $2.098 billion, driven by strong total gaming revenue performance [1] Group 2 - Macau is gradually transforming into a travel destination centered around entertainment performances, which may help attract more tourists [2] - The experience gained by gaming companies in hosting entertainment events over the past two years allows for more targeted and diverse scheduling, which can drive repeat visits and attract new customers [2] Group 3 - The increase in rebate and subsidy expenditures is expected to enhance the market size of the Macau gaming industry, with a growing focus on the absolute EBITDA levels [3] - Following the opening of the Londoner Macao, Sands China increased its reinvestment rate in May 2025, which is anticipated to drive growth in gaming business volume and increase Macau's market share in the Asian gaming market [3] Group 4 - The depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar may boost tourism demand from residents of neighboring Asian countries to Macau [4] - Given the high quality of gaming products and supporting services in Macau, the depreciation is expected to enhance the spending power of Asian tourists at gaming tables and attract more overseas visitors [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a potential narrowing of the decline in PPI in the second half of 2025, with June CPI showing a slight improvement to 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% [2] - Global manufacturing PMI has rebounded above the growth line, indicating an overall recovery in manufacturing activity, particularly in developed economies [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors, particularly those expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies and improving economic conditions [4] Macroeconomic Overview - June CPI in China improved to 0.1% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [2] - Global manufacturing PMI showed a notable increase, with developed markets improving while some emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia showed marginal declines [2] Sector Analysis Fixed Income - The report discusses the impact of "anti-involution" policies on PPI and CPI, suggesting a potential stabilization in prices, with CPI expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% by Q4 2025 [5] - The report notes that the demand side remains critical for price elasticity, with industry self-discipline and private enterprise willingness being key factors [5] Machinery and Equipment - The report indicates a recovery in excavator sales, with June sales reaching 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, driven by strong export growth [8] - The growth in second-hand excavator exports is expected to stimulate domestic replacement demand, benefiting leading companies in the sector [8] Agriculture - The report highlights ongoing "anti-involution" efforts in the pig farming industry, which may lead to inventory release and improved profitability for high-quality pig farming companies [9] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may gradually transition to a phase of high-quality competition, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [9] Renewable Energy and Equipment - The report anticipates strong growth for offshore wind energy, with a significant increase in orders expected to drive performance for leading companies in the sector [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and capacity expansion in the offshore wind sector [19] Electronics and Chemicals - The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for Shengquan Group in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand for electronic materials [20] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth trajectory, supported by favorable market conditions [20] Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining is rated as a "buy" with a target price of 23.44 HKD, driven by expected production growth and favorable gold price trends [15] - Harbin Electric is also rated as a "buy," with anticipated recovery in equipment demand across various energy sectors [15] - MGM China is highlighted for its strong performance in the non-gaming segment, benefiting from increased tourist traffic and successful entertainment events [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the Macau gaming industry, raising the total gaming revenue forecast for 2025 to a 7% year-on-year growth, reaching 83% of the 2019 level [1][46]. Revenue Forecast Adjustments - The company has increased the 2025 EBITDA forecast by 3%, expecting a 9% year-on-year growth, recovering to 89% of the 2019 level [2][46]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q2 2025 is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year, reaching $2.098 billion, which is 87% of the Q2 2019 level [2]. Market Dynamics - Macau is gradually transforming into a travel destination centered around entertainment performances, which may help attract more tourists [4]. - The increase in rebate expenses is expected to enhance the market size of the Macau gaming industry, with a focus on absolute EBITDA levels [4]. - The depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar may boost tourism demand from neighboring Asian countries [4][26]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, Macau achieved a total gaming revenue of MOP 61.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.0%, recovering to 83.3% of the Q2 2019 level [6]. - The company expects mass gaming revenue to grow by 2.7% year-on-year, while VIP gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by 26.6% year-on-year [6][9]. Factors Driving Growth - The strong performance in Q2 2025 is attributed to popular non-gaming activities attracting tourists, the opening of new hotels, and the relaxation of rebate strategies by gaming operators [7]. - The company notes that the focus on hosting various entertainment events can drive repeat visits and attract new customers to Macau [19]. Strategic Adjustments - Sands China has shifted its market strategy to focus on EBITDA returns rather than restrictive profit margins, which is expected to drive domestic demand [33]. - The company has increased its reinvestment rate since May 2025, which is anticipated to enhance market scale [34]. Hotel and Capacity Insights - By mid-2025, all new properties and renovation projects in Macau are expected to be operational, with a total of 45,200 hotel rooms and an occupancy rate of 88% [43]. - Sands China, with over 12,000 hotel rooms, is positioned to leverage its capacity to attract overseas customers, particularly from Asia [41].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding potential high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals has led to a decline in Hong Kong's stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting increased macroeconomic risks and impacting market sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06% at 23,892.32 points, with a total trading volume of 233.88 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.76% [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks experienced significant movements, with Henderson Land Development leading the decline, down 8.64% at 25.9 HKD, while China Biologic Products rose 10.06% to 5.91 HKD [2]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector saw a collective decline, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Tencent over 1%. The copper sector was negatively impacted by Trump's tariff threats, leading to a drop in copper-related stocks [3][6]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with Hengrui Medicine surging 15.61% to 69.6 HKD, indicating resilience amid broader market declines [3][4]. Specific Stock Movements - Macau's gaming sector showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up 6.33% and Melco Resorts up 2.12%, driven by robust gaming revenue growth [4][5]. - Copper stocks faced significant declines, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.74% and Jiangxi Copper down 3.46%, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [5][6]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties. Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 USD per ounce [7].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club plans to sell a significant portion of its U.S. assets, valued at up to $1 billion, amid rising geopolitical risks and escalating trade tensions [1] - The assets for sale include investments in well-known private equity firms such as Blackstone, TA Associates Management LP, Warburg Pincus, and Clayton Dubilier & Rice, with one fund alone containing assets worth $700 million [1] - The sale process, led by Jefferies Financial Group, began in the first quarter of the year, with some buyers starting to review the assets in April [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club, as the largest lottery and gaming institution in Hong Kong, manages a substantial investment portfolio, with annual customer betting amounts reaching HKD 305 billion and generating HKD 43 billion in revenue from gaming and lottery operations in 2023 [2] - The current trend of Asian investors reassessing their U.S. asset allocations is reflected in the actions of approximately 10 ultra-high-net-worth family offices and advisory firms that have reduced or paused investments in the U.S. market to mitigate systemic risks arising from political and policy uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - The stocks of New World Development (00200.HK) increased by 6.73% [1] - The shares of SJM Holdings (00880.HK) rose by 5.15% [1] - Wynn Macau (01128.HK) saw a gain of 4.91% in its stock price [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) experienced a 2.09% increase [1]

Market Performance - A-shares showed poor performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,473 points, up 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.7% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.21%[15] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slightly declined by 0.12% and 0.01% respectively, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25%[11] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 422 points or 0.94%, closing at 44,406 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped by 0.79% and 0.92% respectively[9] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean goods, and a 30% tariff on South African products, contributing to market uncertainty and declines in U.S. stocks[9] - The deadline for new tariffs has been extended to August 1, which has led to cautious trading in European markets, with the DAX rising by 1.20% and the FTSE 100 declining by 0.13%[9] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1% following Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in major crude oil prices, with NYMEX crude up 1.39% to $67.93 per barrel[25] - The gold price initially fell but stabilized later, while industrial metals in London faced declines due to tariff risks[25] Fixed Income Market - The U.S. long-term treasury bonds led the decline, with the yield curve steepening; the 10-year treasury yield rose to 4.38% and the 30-year yield to 4.92%[29] - Asian bond markets experienced mixed trading, with a slight bias towards selling, and spreads widening by 1-2 basis points[29] Key Corporate News - Tesla's stock fell by 6.8% after CEO Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party, raising investor concerns about potential impacts on the company's brand image[9] - Goldin Financial Holdings reported a significant increase in revenue, with a 20.57% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, driven by expansion in overseas markets[18]

Market Overview - US President Trump has issued new tariff policy letters to 14 countries, leading to a rebound in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.09% to 24,148.07 points, ending a three-day decline [1] - The total trading volume for the day was HKD 213.29 billion, indicating active market participation [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has withdrawn HKD 59.072 billion in liquidity since June 28, tightening liquidity expectations in the short term [1] Blue Chip Performance - Xinyi Solar (00968) led blue-chip gains, rising 5.43% to HKD 2.91, contributing 1.04 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) and Chow Tai Fook (01929) also saw significant increases of 5.16% and 4.42%, respectively [2] - However, Orient Overseas International (00316) and China Biologic Products (01177) experienced declines, dragging down the index [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks rebounded, with Kuaishou rising over 5% and Meituan and JD.com both increasing over 2% [3] - Stablecoin concept stocks surged, with Jinyong Investment (01328) skyrocketing 533.17% after announcing a partnership with AnchorX [3] - The Macau gaming sector showed strong performance, with total gaming revenue for the first six days of July reaching MOP 4.3 billion, indicating a robust recovery [6] Solar Industry Insights - The solar sector saw strong gains, with New Special Energy (01799) up 12.65% and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) up 10.81% [5] - Recent government meetings emphasized the need to address low-price competition and improve product quality in the solar industry, suggesting potential for supply-side reforms [5] Gaming Sector Developments - Macau's gaming stocks continued to rise, with Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.4% and MGM China (02282) up 3.29% [6] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to see double-digit year-on-year growth in July, marking a cyclical turning point for the industry [6] New Consumption Trends - New consumption stocks performed well, with brands like Blukoo (00325) and Cha Ba Dao (02555) seeing significant increases [6][7] - Gold stocks also rebounded, with Tongguan Gold (00340) rising 6.37% [7] Stablecoin Regulatory Developments - Jinyong Investment announced a strategic partnership with AnchorX to explore potential collaborations in digital asset management and stablecoin applications [4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is consulting the market on regulatory guidelines for stablecoins, with expectations for a limited number of licenses to be issued [4] Logistics Sector Performance - Jitu Express-W (01519) reached a new high, with a reported 23.5% year-on-year increase in package volume for Q2 2025 [9] - The company achieved a total package volume of 139.9 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong growth in the logistics sector [9] AI and Technology Sector Insights - Hongteng Precision (06088) saw an increase of 8.82%, driven by growing demand for AI-related solutions [10] - The company is expected to benefit from its parent group's resources and the increasing demand for AI computing power [10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.09% and the Hang Seng Technology Index leading with a 1.84% increase, surpassing the 24,000-point mark [1] - Major technology stocks experienced collective gains, with Kuaishou up 5.16%, Baidu up 3.55%, and Meituan, Xiaomi, and JD.com all rising over 2% [5][6] Sector Performance - The securities and brokerage sector saw substantial increases, particularly Victory Securities and Guotai Junan, which surged over 33% and 28.5% respectively [3][9] - The gambling sector continued its upward trend, with Jinyi Holdings rising over 14% and Wynn Macau increasing by over 6% [7] - The solar energy sector remained active, with Shunfeng Clean Energy soaring over 30% and several other companies in the sector also posting significant gains [8] - The semiconductor sector also saw positive movement, with SMIC rising over 3% [12] Specific Stock Movements - In the technology sector, notable performers included Kuaishou (up 5.16%), Baidu (up 3.55%), and JD Health (up 3.94%) [5][6][11] - In the gambling sector, Jinyi Holdings rose 14.25%, while Wynn Macau increased by 6.40% [7][16] - The solar energy sector saw Shunfeng Clean Energy increase by 30.43%, with other companies like Sunshine Energy and New Special Energy also showing strong performance [8] - The securities sector had strong gains, with Zhongzhou Securities and Huatai Securities both rising over 4% [9][10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment appears positive, driven by strong performances in technology, securities, and renewable energy sectors, although concerns remain regarding liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties [21][22] - Long-term prospects for the Hong Kong market remain strong, particularly in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are considered relatively scarce [22]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks continue to rise, with Wynn Macau up 4.55%, SJM Holdings up 2.16%, Sands China up 1.2%, and Melco International Development up 1.01% [1] - Citigroup reported that Macau's total gaming revenue for the first six days of July may have reached approximately 4.3 billion MOP, indicating a daily average of about 717 million MOP, which is a 2% increase compared to June 2025 and a 30% surge compared to July 2024 [1] - Citigroup conservatively raised its forecast for July 2025 gaming revenue from 19.5 billion MOP to 20 billion MOP, anticipating a slowdown in daily gaming revenue after the conclusion of the concert series by Jacky Cheung [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan noted that despite the positive impact of Jacky Cheung's concert and seasonal factors in July, the performance is stronger than in June or May, with expectations of double-digit year-on-year growth for total gaming revenue in July [2] - The report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue has exceeded seasonal and market expectations for three consecutive months, suggesting that the industry has reached a cyclical turning point after a prolonged period of market profit forecast reductions [2]